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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Chargois with a rough last 2 outings, ERA jumped from 1.35 to 4.40.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, Polanco was kind of an emergency type callup, since he was already on the 40-man. His first one was straight from high-A Fort Myers.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Buxton was in fact called up to MLB from AA. He was later sent back to AAA. Kennys Vargas, Chris Parmelee, and Joe Benson were originally called up from AA too. I tend to think the prospect has to be elite, or the season has to be lost, to skip AAA, which doesn't bode well for an early season call up for Wade.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Gomez has still been a mostly exclusive CF, up until 2018. It is quite possible his metrics get a boost now that he has moved to a corner.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd be worried about him falling into the path of the train. Better just get an Uber.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, right now, LaMarre is the 4th outfielder, and he is the only person on the roster that can keep a glove out of Grossman's hands. And he's apparently not good enough to do that very much. In some other context, I am sure LaMarre could be fine (although the roster might be better off with 4 competent outfielders and skipping the 5th one). But in tandem with Grossman, as our 3rd/4th outfielders? Not so much. I'd like to see Wade replace LaMarre right now, and actually start over Grossman, and let Robbie stick to pinch hitting and emergency OF duty. If Wade or Cave doesn't work out, you could always go back to the Grossman/LaMarre tag team. But we should be using the opportunity presented by Buxton's injury (and Granite's) to explore alternatives.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Hmmm... put Grossman behind the plate, you say?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    But with positive defense and baserunning, Gomez is about 0.3 bWAR ahead of Morrison. (Doesn't sound like much, but it would be a +1.5 WAR season pace.) I didn't mind the effort to upgrade from Grossman at DH, though. But that needed to be paired with a willingness to find a 4th outfielder alternative, even just internally.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Anybody care to defend the Grossman/LaMarre arrangement today? I get it, in theory. Offensive-minded player starts, then you sub him out for a defensive-minded replacement in the late innings if you have a lead. That's not uncommon. But Grossman's offensive upside looks pretty average these days, and his defense is just brutal. I don't know if we can afford to put him out there for the first 6-7 innings anymore. And it's not a problem that will go away as soon as you activate Buxton. Grossman as the 4th outfielder will still get outfield starts (the top 3 can't/won't start every day), and Grossman in that role will necessitate keeping a 5th outfielder as his defensive caddy, at the expense of the pitching staff, infield, pinch hitting, etc. I think you could drop LaMarre, then call up Wade to start every day. See if he can approach Grossman's offense, while providing competent defense. If he can, you've got yourself a viable, REAL 4th outfielder, and potentially relieved your need for a 5th outfielder. You could keep Grossman around for pinch hitting and emergency outfield duty, especially while Wade is getting acclimated. If Wade falters, you could also try Cave. And if both of them fail, you can always fall back to Grossman/LaMarre.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps you misunderstood me. You can't pay a guy follow Sano outside the ballpark unless Sano is okay with it, and the guy can't actually accomplish anything unless Sano buys into his advice and guidance. If Sano was willing to do that, we probably wouldn't be in the position of hiring such a guy.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    If Sano was willing to buy in to such a plan... well, we probably wouldn't be having this discussion today in the first place.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    A word of caution for fellow posters: don't take the bait! Serenity now!
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Doubtful. Hughes's health has been a problem long enough now that even if he was once insured, that policy term has likely expired (most contract insurance is just for 2-3 years) and he's been practically uninsurable for awhile now (the premiums would be basically equal to his salary). And to my knowledge, there has never been a media report about contract insurance for Hughes either, while I think it had been mentioned for past injured Twins players like Joe Nathan and Ricky Nolasco.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Dodgers kind of need Kemp right now. With Seager out, Taylor moves back to the infield, and their outfield is pretty thin. Don't think there is any chance of moving Hughes right now. The only possibility is exchanging him for a greater dead weight deal to relieve another team of some luxury tax burden, but I don't think any team is going to be looking at luxury tax until next winter. And of course, such a deal may not even make sense from the Twins perspective, if they take on more cash for a really bad player.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually Jepsen is with the Rangers right now.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I am not questioning why we claimed Cave in the first place, I liked the move. I am questioning his value if he can't crack an outfield featuring Grossman/LaMarre every day. And that's not to say that Cave should be cut today, but rather he shouldn't be invoked as a depth-chart reason to hold back Wade. The Twins outfield plans are apparently pretty tenuous past the top 3 of Buxton, Kepler, and Rosario, and Wade deserves to be in the conversation for that 4th spot somehow -- if not by MLB promotion, then at least AAA.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, of course. Projections can't and shouldn't predict performances like that. It's not what they do. But they can suggest a performance lean that isn't readily apparent, and that information can have some value. Keep in mind, the context of this discussion is a poster claiming that "no reasonable projection would expect a contribution from his bat" in regards to Wade. When in fact it seems that every public projection system seems to give that outcome a reasonable shot (above comparable prospects). This wasn't a generic debate questioning the validity of all projections, this was a specific claim invoking projections (incorrectly, it appears). I am sure the claim will shift now to an irrefutable appeal to authority argument, that the Twins know best in this specific case...
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Here are some 2018 Twins projections from Steamer: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=8&lg=all&players=0 It doesn't include guys with zero MLB time, so you have to click through their individual pages to see them. https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=8&lg=all&players=0 Jake Cave is at 78-80 wRC+, Gordon at 68-70, Rooker at 71-78, Wiel at 68, etc. Anything stand out as out of line?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Another way to look at it: if Wade had a high ISO to go along with the rest of his performance, he would be a top 100 prospect for sure, maybe even upper half. I don't think that should be the threshold required for promotion.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't get that impression. It's not like they regularly project rookies to be stars. There is certainly a bit more volatility with rookie projections, sure. A lot of that is probably guys like Kinley who are terrible in a small sample and don't have the opportunity to normalize those numbers to merely bad.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    You keep repeating this as if Wade is a banjo hitter like Granite. He's not. No matter how much importance you want to assign to ~1.5 extra total bases per month in their AA seasons, Wade's profile is much closer to Grossman's minor league profile (in fact possibly better if you consider his dramatically lower K rate to go along with his similar ISO and BB rate). Wade probably won't be a star or reach his AA 135 wRC+ in MLB, but the ZiPS/Steamer projections for Wade seem entirely reasonable right now (89-97). No guarantee he would do it, of course, but it could be fairly valuable to the Twins to find out, at least with a promotion to AAA (seriously, what do we see in Jake Cave if he can't crack this roster right now?). Grossman/LaMarre does not appear to be viable, considering offense plus defense plus roster concerns (they both have to be each other's exclusive substitute right now), and I suspect this isn't the last time we're going to need a replacement for Buxton.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, the guys with options that we have rotated have mostly sucked. So in theory it could be an improvement. Don't know if Belisle is the guy, though.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, if you want to express it as 22 doubles to 30, you also have to subtract 8 singles. Net +4 doubles, or less than 1 per month. 91 PAs? Aren't you usually reminding folks about sample size? Why wouldn't you be using his stats from last season, where he had roughly double that rate of XBH? Does the most recent 91 PA trump that somehow? What would you have predicted for Grossman when he moved up to AAA and posted an .083 ISO, in the PCL with a league ISO of .144? Then came to MLB that same season and posted a .101 ISO? Nobody made Grossman improve upon his roughly league average ISO in AA before they would advance him. I'm not guaranteeing that Wade would succeed, but when he has to be added to the 40-man this year anyway, and you are stuck starting either Grossman or LaMarre in your outfield every single day right now, would it hurt that much find out? What is the point of having Jake Cave on the roster with options instead if he's not even going to play the outfield over Grossman or LaMarre? At least move Wade up to AAA so you are better prepared for the next time an outfielder gets hurt.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Projections are based on component comps. It's not a fixed adjustment applied to every player. Heck, Grossman's rookie performance is probably a part of Wade's projection (as would be the success/failure of players similar to Grossman and Wade). With your comparison, you're ignoring league factors. Grossman and Wade are very similar by the criteria you specify. Here are the relative stats for their AA debut seasons: Grossman: 22.5 years old ISO +.012 compared to his leagues BB% +5.6% compared to his leagues Wade 23.3 years old ISO -.006 compared to his league BB% +5.5% compared his league Park factors could add another layer, but I'm not seeing any meaningful difference here. That ISO difference is, what, 8 total bases over a full season? More stats to consider: Grossman's K rate at AA was virtually the same as his league average, while Wade's was 7.8% lower than his league average last year (and even better this year).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Steamer doesn't project playing time / counting stats for him. You can still look at the rate stats of the projection, it comes to a 97 wRC+. You can also click the "Projections" link just above the stat table which will toggle the preseason projections. Steamer is basically the same, and ZiPS was at 89 wRC+ (and included some counting stats for illustration). https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa856280&position=OF
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