Jump to content
Can the Twins win a baseball game? Join our game thread! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,662

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    It would seem kind of odd, given the stark delineation between starting and relieving in modern MLB, to leave a player in limbo about his expected role over the winter, though.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Danny Santana needs to see time at second base in spring training too -- he hasn't played there at all since 2013, and you have to go back another year to find his last non-emergency stateside starts at the position.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    That undersells Hardy quite a bit. In the first of those seasons, the one you call "great", when just 2.5 months from full free agency, he signed a very team-friendly 3/22.5 extension And here's his WAR marks for the 4 seasons following the trade (B-Ref, but basically the same at Fangraphs too): 4.1, 3.2, 3.9, 3.3 Starting 91% of this team's games through those 4 seasons. In short, Hardy was an incredible asset not only that year we traded him, but for the next 3 years too (which he was also willing to sign away cheaply).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    That is the latest report, yet: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/reds-trades-todd-frazier-chapman.html
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    They will if they do something unpredictable and illogical! TR should absolutely be calling other teams and soliciting their most unpredictable and illogical offers for Plouffe, on that I think we can all agree.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    From the looks of it, they may not technically lose control over Pinto until next April if he doesn't make the 25-man roster, and by that point it may not be difficult to slip him through waivers. He reports to the Venezuelan winter league this week, should be interesting to see where and how he plays. Fryer has previously re-signed with us, I see no reason why he wouldn't again this winter. Likewise Paulino signed here as a minor league free agent last winter. If either doesn't re-sign for whatever reason, we can find another like them to fill any hole in AAA.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    By my count, Murphy has 2 options remaining. He was added to the roster in 2013, optioned in 2014, but spent all of 2015 in MLB. But I hope this trade wasn't made with any idea of sending Murphy down, though. He should be starting over Suzuki, or we should get an even better starting catcher and dump Suzuki. In any case, I can't see all of out-of-options guys (Arcia, Santana, Pinto, and Tonkin, plus Robinson possibly) making the roster, much less sticking on it all year, meaning our roster shouldn't be that inflexible. Vargas, Rosario, Polanco, and 9 pitchers still have options.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the Twins are trying to forget that ever happened. Cuddyer went to the OF at age 27 after being deemed a failure at 3B. I don't think Plouffe is returning to the outfield.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, DSP's quote was probably based on Hicks still being on the roster. DSP also said we would pursue AJ. Circumstances change.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I feel like this might be the mirror image of an article written two years ago, "What Should South Korea Expect From Chris Colabello?"
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Hicks started in a corner 41 times the past two seasons, out of 203 total starts in the field, or 20%. Did we hear any complaint? I could see him not liking a platoon situation, but I don't think any young player would like to be platooned, and frankly I don't think the Twins would like to platoon such a player either. There are plenty of ways to justify this trade without resorting to armchair psychology.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Fun with small sample sizes... Murphy's 2015 line with .357 BABIP: .277/.327/.406, .734 OPS, 103 OPS+, 99 wRC+ adjusted to his career minor league BABIP (.296): .232/.287/.361, .648 OPS, ~78 OPS+, ~74 wRC+ with his career minor league BABIP, plus his most recent AAA K%: .245/.298/.374, .672 OPS, ~87 OPS, ~83 wRC+ (His AAA ISO was a little higher too, but I did not adjust his MLB ISO for simplicity since it was already respectable, he's moving to Target Field, and he's a right-handed non-pull hitter. Similarly his most recent AAA BB% was already close too.) League average for catchers in 2015 was 89 OPS+, 85 wRC+ So based on this back-of-the-envelope estimation, to get him to positional league average, we're probably going to have to cut his strikeouts. Are the Twins the team to do that? We don't have a great track record in that department... Hicks did it in 2015 but was already noted for his pitch selectivity... will be interesting to see. EDIT: corrected adjustment for most recent AAA K%
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Murphy is actually younger than Garver, and only about 7 months older than Turner. Murphy has also never posted a season ISO as low as that of Garver (.088) or Turner (.083) last year. When he played in the same leagues, Murphy posted ISOs of .117 and .163, respectively (and obviously at much younger ages). And Murphy isn't known for his bat. At this point, I'm not sure how you can pin "catcher of the future" on either Garver or Turner, but not Murphy (except perhaps with "a great deal of faith" as you say ).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, Murphy also ranks 20th in that group in PAs. Also 3rd highest BABIP, #29 in ISO, and #37 (out of 54) in K/BB ratio. Pinto was 21st by OPS among catchers in 2014. (Obviously wouldn't have been a problem if he could have played catcher in 2015!)
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I would be surprised if we acquire an everyday catcher at this point. Murphy does have option years remaining (two, I think), but I can't imagine they plan to send him down right away. Could be a catching prospect who has another year to develop, but I got a feeling Murphy is the starting/platoon hope for 2016.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I read it more as a fan/supported of Hicks, rather than a dig at TR. Why shouldn't we wish Hicks well?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, Murphy's not really a "3 year backup catcher" -- looks like he was a September call-up in 2013, was the backup for 2 months in 2014 when Cervelli was hurt, and got another September call-up late in 2014. He was the Yankees backup catcher for the entire 2015 season, however. Got 43 starts, compared to Herrmann/Fryer's combined 39.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Murphy actually resembles Herrmann a little bit. Played a little 3B too his first couple years in the minors, although he's been a full-time catcher for 4 seasons now. They both had a K rate spike at AAA/MLB, difference seems to be that Murphy's BABIP didn't crater in MLB (it actually spiked in 2015 to a career high since rookie ball).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually Hicks will be arb eligible by normal means next winter, not Super 2. (He's already past 2 years service.)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure quite how to respond to this. I will say that Plouffe seems like precisely the kind of solid player that wouldn't "inspire" anyone to do something unpredictable or illogical. He doesn't have the youth or one standout skill or stat that GMs often like to project upon, and there really isn't much of a case for him being versatile defensively anymore if there ever was one (even in 2015 he only served as the backup 1B when Vargas wasn't on the roster).
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    See my post above. I think the QO is considered almost like the previous year's salary in negotiations with the current team. Like Morneau a couple years ago, after he made $14 mil for the Twins, while that salary was no longer binding, I think we were going to have a tougher time signing him to a ~$6 mil contract than other clubs.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Despite having recently played the position, Plouffe is absolutely not checking anyone's 1B box. He's got a career and 2015 OPS+ of 99, and a peak of 110. I think looking team-by-team at 3B will show you if there are any clubs where a good hitting 3B could be shifted to cover a hole elsewhere and make room for Plouffe... although the best example of that might be Plouffe's current team.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not that easy. The 10 teams that aren't set at 3B include the Brewers, Phillies, and Braves. They may not really care about getting "set" at that position for the next two years at the cost of ~$16 mil salary plus whatever talent they have to surrender in trade. For a few more like the Padres and Diamondbacks, the improvement of Plouffe over internal options might be marginal. For a few others, like the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, etc., they're already committed to other 3B. And 2-3 more of the teams considered "not set" are in the same division as the Twins, which might add another layer of reluctance to part with talent to get him.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    My guess is that the Angels wanted to explore other options, with no risk of being locked into Freese and to not give Freese any expectations about AAV. From 2012-2014, 34 players received a qualifying offer, and only 8 times has the player re-signed with their former team that same winter. 2012 (QO $13.1 mil): LaRoche 2/24 Ortiz 2/26 (in leui of rejecting the offer) Kuroda 1/15 2013 (QO $14.1 mil): Kuroda again 1/16 Napoli 2/32 Drew 1/14.1 (prorated) 2014 (QO $15.3 mil): Martinez 4/68 Liriano 3/39 As qualifying offers multiply this might change, but I get the impression that the QO, even when rejected, acts as a reference point for these guys much like previous year's salary, and they'd have to sacrifice some pride to re-sign for notably less with the same club. So a rejected QO, while it would have hurt Freese's value to attach the draft pick, it would have probably made it more difficult for the Angels to snag him for 1/10 or 2/20, which seems like a reasonable fallback should their other 3B options fall through.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    The very same month that this new Bedrosian was born!
×
×
  • Create New...