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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting. Akeel Morris' age and stat line looks not unlike Lester Oliveros circa 2011, when we got him for Delmon Young. Probably not much of an asset, but an interesting piece for a rebuilding club. (Oliveros' tenure with the Twins may have been somewhat more interesting if he hadn't gone down for TJ surgery within a year of being acquired.) Kelly Johnson probably had something like ~$1.3 mil left on his 2016 contract, as compared to $4.8 for Plouffe.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. Where they've shown discretion in crafting the 25-man roster so far is basically as follows: Duffey over Milone Kintzler over Fien Grossman over Rosario Centeno over Murphy And within the 25-man roster: Nunez over Escobar as starting SS Dean over hobbled Hughes in the rotation Plus Rogers or Boshers (presumably whoever isn't optioned when Gibson returns) over an extra bench player. I guess it's better than completely standing pat, but in the number of moves and the priority given to guys like Dean and Boshers, it's not really what you want to see from a team that should be looking to the future.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I believe Seth is correct, Thorpe would be Rule 5 eligible this winter as he was signed under 18 and this would be his 5th Rule 5 draft upcoming. With all of the time he has spent in rookie leagues and disabled lists, though, I believe he will also be eligible for a 4th option year, for what it's worth.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Polanco barely played when he was here, that's not an audition. Centeno has started only 11 of 29 games since being called up, and in at least 3 of those Suzuki was held out with injury. Also, not all auditions are equal (Pat Dean starting over Trevor May, for example, or Boshers over Chargois, etc.). This was brought up in a recent thread about Pat Dean. They've pretty much done the bare minimum for auditions so far, given the circumstances (mostly injuries to Sano/Santana and the health of Hughes).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Pat Dean, with Trevor May sliding into the rotation.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    You can audition rookies in August and September in almost any season, but it doesn't give you a whole lot of useful data to prepare for next year (see Kennys Vargas, Chris Parmelee, etc.). The Twins epically poor start has given them an advantage that they already know, at this early date, that they can start to look to the future. No sense delaying it until August to try buoying modest trade values. There is absolutely room today for Chargois in pen without waiting for Abad to be dealt, there is room for May and/or Berrios in the rotation without waiting for a SP trade, innings for Wheeler to see if he is worth protecting on the 40-man again this winter, etc.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed on that. These circumstances call for aggressiveness.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not just about determining whether you are a buyer or a seller. The Royals and Mets won't be sellers, but they may not need to buy. They will probably take the next two months to evaluate internal options. Remember when everyone here was convinced we could deal Plouffe to the Giants? Then Matt Duffy emerged. Teams aren't particularly willing to give up anything for an average-ish and scuffling player like Plouffe now, if they don't need to and it might cost them a trade chip or money to put towards more on an impact acquisition closer to the deadline. And Shields is by all accounts healthy and a roughly league average starter even through his San Diego struggles. Nolasco and Hughes, you would pretty much have to eat near 100% with no prospect of significance coming back, I think.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Problem is, by the same token, most teams are not yet committed to being buyers. We saw the steep price the Padres paid to get out ahead of the market with Shields.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    22%. It was bumped up from 17% a few years ago.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually you don't really know until a couple years later when they become arb eligible (or not). But teams seem to be able to predict this quite well, I don't think there have been too many surprises either way.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Hocking, Punto, and Carroll all received multi year deals from TR.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually we are at that point right now, it appears. Pirates just called up Taillon.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I see where you are coming from in a generic sense, but the cards are already stacked against a Nunez extension, by virtue of his age, salary, remaining year of control, past history, likely market, etc. None of that changes no matter how deeply you analyze his approach, swing mechanics, etc. right now.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    There is almost no way extending Nunez would be beneficial to the Twins. He's making $1.5 mil, due to make maybe $2.5 mil next year. The extension would basically begin at his age 31 season in 2018. And assuming he doesn't continue to hit .335 with a 137 OPS+ for the next year and a half, how much do you think he will even get on the open market after 2017? Whatever it is, the Twins can easily afford it if they really need to retain him at that point. Even if Nunez has figured some things out and that is driving his current success, an extension would be flushing away all of Nunez's surplus value this year and next, no real gain -- basically hoping for surplus value later (above a higher salary threshold) in his age 31+ seasons. No way. It's eerily similar to the Suzuki situation, a needless extension covering age 31+ supported by Parker's article on his approach.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    The whole point of our offseason bullpen "strategy" was that we had some top bullpen prospects, and bullpen prospects can be fast risers. If you're not even going to promote the fast riser until perhaps August in a lost season, then what's the point. There's no reason Buddy Boshers needs the next two months of MLB reps more than Chargois (assuming Dean is optioned when Gibson is activated). Even if they really want to go back to 12 pitchers at some point, there aren't 12 pitchers more important to our 2017 plans than JT Chargois. Jepsen could be DFA'd, he really has no place now or in 2017. (Arcia is also a DFA candidate on the offense, given they way they have used him.)
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    There are reasons, just no good ones anymore.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    That list isn't all about trade "value" -- it's also about a likelihood to deal. The Twins should undeniably be a seller, and Plouffe could be in line for a nontender this winter or an unpalatable arbitration award. Those are probably the bigger factors in his ranking than his actual trade value.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    To those that think releasing Ortiz was justified: has any healthy player coming off a performance like a 120 OPS+ season ever been released in MLB history? Not just non-tendered, which means his team could re-sign him at a lower rate like Oakland did with Jack Cust, but actually released, precluding him from being re-signed to a MLB deal. I'm genuinely curious. My guess is that it is rare enough to suggest the Twins decision was very much a mistake in real-time.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    From looking at the Fien/Milone waiver situations, it appears the Twins could have done better with Ortiz too by applying similar logic. Had they offered Ortiz arbitration, they would have been on the hook for ~$1.9 mil (although like all arbitration awards, only 1/6 of it was guaranteed before March 15), BUT they could have waived him at any point later to remove him from the roster. If he cleared outright assignment waivers (likely, since he cleared release waivers anyway), with less than 5 years service time, Ortiz would have had to accept the assignment or forfeit his salary. Either way, it would have had benefit for the Twins -- they would have cheaply bought some extra time to evaluate their options and continue to try to trade one of them. Then if he accepted the assignment, they would have been able to stash Ortiz in AAA while they got a longer look at LeCroy (and also delayed Ortiz's free agency, and kept his next year's arb salary from rising). Or, if Ortiz elected free agency, by forfeiting his contract, the Twins would have again saved his ~$1.9 mil arbitration salary. Why a team needing to conserve assets like the 2002-2003 Twins didn't do that again suggests a decision that was driven more by personality and hubris than money, performance, etc.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Not really disputing any of this. But it's not really comparing bullpen quality vs the current Royals, it's comparing bullpen plans, composition, expectations, deployment, etc. The Twins pen was good, but was really just viewed as another piece on a solid all-around team (pieces which often seemed to fail us at crunch time, sadly). The Royals have invested in their whole pen as a weapon, to explicitly carry the team. The Twins never did that. Just like the Royals also invested in contact, speed, and defense to help do the same. The Twins never did that either, at best they seemed to luck into good BABIP seasons from piranha bench players (who they then rewarded with DH assignments in the playoffs, future starting roles, etc.). Again, not saying the Twins were bad or any component of the team was bad, but the Twins plan and construction isn't particularly comparable to that of the current Royals.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    They didn't have any more than 2 of those guys at once, really. Hawkins and Guardado were gone by 2004, which was the first season for Nathan and the first year where Rincon had graduated from long relief. Balfour never really did much of anything for us, outside of that one playoff game vs NY -- 4.63 ERA in 68 IP across two seasons, in neutral leverage. No doubt they were very good pens, probably league-leading some years, but they were never really a "weapon" like the recent pens the Royals have created. The Twins were seemingly always content with a solid closer and setup man, and then filling in solid but unspectacular performers around them. To say that the recent Royals pen is modeled after the old Twins one is just not true.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I addressed this upthread, but there were some sizable holes in the early 2000s Twins commitment to defense. And while the Twins pen was solid and serviceable for much of the decade, I don't recall it ever being considered a weapon for the team. It was rarely better than two-deep anyway, as far as arms you would trust in a playoff game (and even those arms blew their share of games). And while it does seem like limiting strikeouts at the plate may not be a huge deal, that (plus speed) is a definite offensive identity for the Royals. Even when they had some good hitters, the Twins never really had an offensive identity, and perhaps that showed in their lackluster postseason efforts -- having a real, thorough "piranha" game plan, rather than counting on BABIP luck, might have helped those lineups focus and produce more runs when it mattered?
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    In generic platitudes, maybe. Where was the emphasis on defense when we trotted out an aging Shannon Stewart to protect a late inning lead in a playoff game? Cuddyer at 2B? Cuddyer and Rondell White manning the corner OF spots? Heck, even the "piranha" stuff was more talk than action -- the Royals have actually emphasized SPEED to achieve those results, not just relied on Nick Punto's fluctuating BABIP. And while the Twins had successful bullpens during that run, they were really nothing like the Royals recent pens. Davis is a BEAST, and Herrera is becoming one too. And they still bolstered those guys with Madson last year, and Soria this year. Meanwhile, various "valued contributors" to our pen were blowing playoff leads annually, it seems, and our reinforcements were, what, Todd Jones and Matt Capps?
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    But it wasn't until they clearly broke from those plans (Myers trade, Cueto trade) that they actually achieved any success.
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