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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    The issue is, someone trading for Ervin in July 2016 primarily wants the benefit of his 2016 performance. They might not mind having him for 2017-2018 too, but they would probably want a discount on those years if they are giving up anything noteworthy in terms of prospects. Put another way, I can't think of anyone traded with as much as ~$34 mil guaranteed remaining that didn't have some kind of financial component to the deal, either cash or taking back another contract.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Was the weather thing just a joke then? Sorry if I missed it, that happens if it is too subtle and there's no emoticon
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I think that is key. If the Twins are finally ready to cut bait on Nolasco (and to a lesser degree Milone), they don't need to clear Santana's spot. Keeping him as the rotation vet for 2/28 after this season is fine, assuming only a modest/marginal prospect could come back in trade. However, if the Twins refuse to move on from Nolasco, there are worse ways to clear a rotation spot than finding a taker for the remaining guarantee on Santana's deal. I really wish Berrios was starting in place of Nolasco or Milone this weekend, but bare minimum, tonight should be Berrios's last AAA start. The Twins need to make room for him.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Uh, I highly doubt the Twins will have offers, let alone multiple offers, for Nolasco. Unless by "offers" you include "we'll take him off your hands for the league minimum salary if you pay the rest" (aka "we'll take a flier on him after you release him").
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Uh, his slow start last year in Minnesota was in July. And his worst month by ERA this year so far is June. I'd guess weather has very little to do with explaining these performances, it's probably just the standard variation inherent in all player performances -- a 4.00 ERA pitcher will have some months at 5.00, some months at 3.00, etc.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Pressly has an option remaining. Tonkin won't be a super two unless he clear waivers and gets outrighted at some point. He is on track to finish this year with 2 years and 5 days service time, well short of the commonly cited 2 year ~120 day super two threshold; would then be a first time arb eligible after 2017 with 3 years service, and free agent after 2020 with 6 years service.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Winners can be a minor league free agent this winter, right? So it might make some sense to look at him. For other guys, it is a bit different calculation. If you add them to the 40-man, in order to remove them they have to go on waivers and can be claimed by any other team with an open 40-man spot. But if you don't add them, and they are not yet eligible for minor league free agency, they will still remain in your org unless another team selects them in Rule 5. For Wheeler, if he would be on the edge of the 40-man bubble anyway, it might be easier to keep him in the org for 2017 by not adding him this year.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe I wasn't clear. He could appear in games yet this year, but it still would not be hard to DL him at some point next year.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks. I was thinking, if he hit 90 days in 2014, and he wasn't added to the 40-man and optioned until the 2017-2018 offseason, he would finish 2020 with 5 "full" pro seasons (2014, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020) and thus not get a 4th option year in 2021.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    There are so many other factors going on there, though. You really can't pin any of it on an extra 3 days off a month. I like the idea of resting him more because it can't hurt, and he is very much a known quantity at spots (1B/DH) where we can easily take looks at less known quantities. I am under no illusions that the extra days off will dramatically boost his OPS, though.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think it would take much to play the setback card. Dude hasn't thrown a professional pitch in nearly two years now, he has 115 career innings in the U.S. It wouldn't be that blatant to ease him through the first few months of 2017 (or alternatively, pitch him early but shut him down in July). Thorpe would be getting MLB salary and MLB service time throughout -- one season's minimum MLB salary as a Rule 5 guy would exceed his original $500k bonus. Not to mention the longer-term benefits (increased minor league pay in 2017 and beyond, a year closer to arb and free agency, plus lifetime pension and health benefits tied to service time). There are plenty of incentives for Thorpe to prefer being someone else's Rule 5 stash over continuing to be non-40-man roster property of the Twins.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think there is a whole lot of evidence to support that theory. Mauer's best season, he played at a 154 games started pace (after missing the first month in 2009). Larger differences between Mauer ages 20-30 pre-concussion and Mauer age 33+ post-concussion overshadow any possible performance advantage in an extra 3 games off per month.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I am assuming he returns to active duty yet this season, but he could still be DL'ed again next year as he works his way back. It's a process, not a binary thing. Pelfrey was DL'ed in 2013 for generic reasons after his return, although it was a shorter timeframe overall, but Thorpe warrants more caution than a veteran arm too.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed, although of that group, I think Mauer and Grossman deserve to sit the most while we try to play/evaluate Vargas, Rosario, Santana, Escobar, etc.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Jeremy, do you know if that 90 day requirement includes minor league playoffs? I notice that from his first start of 2014 through the end of the Cedar Rapids regular season, Thorpe had 87 active days, but the team did have an additional 6 days in the playoffs (although Thorpe did not pitch in them). Not a big deal, but if it was considered under 90 days, Thorpe could still qualify for a 4th option in 2021 if he was left unprotected this winter (either for us or for whatever team selects him as a Rule 5 pick).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    That looks about right. Centeno probably gets dropped too if we are protecting Garver/Turner anyway (although it might be offset by re-signing Suzuki or adding a different veteran catcher). I'd also add Dean to the list of suspect pitchers. Among recent protections, we probably have to consider dropping Randy Rosario too -- he's got a 4.73 RAvg and 5.8 K/9 this year, compared to the FSL averages of 4.02 and 7.7. Maybe we should see if he can be more effective in a relief role the rest of this season? He is 22 years old already. (And I'd be surprised if we dealt any of Dozier, Grossman, or Ervin Santana by December, I think their spots are pretty safe.)
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the extra year is already plenty. Thorpe will be 21 years old when the Rule 5 draft happens this year. If we add him to the 40-man roster, he will be 25 years old before he is out of options. You really think teams should get more time to evaluate than that? In Thorpe's case, it seems short because they started him a bit slowly and then he got hurt, but that already buys us an extra option year. As a rule, I would hate to shackle prospects to the minor leagues any longer than they already are.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    But, Thorpe wouldn't have to stick anywhere next spring -- he has a built-in excuse to spend 3 months on the DL to open the 2017 season, with his continued surgery recovery. That seems to be the Rule 5 ideal -- April/May on the DL, June in the minors for rehab. The only cost through that point is the 40-man roster spot from December through March. At that point, after the extra evaluation time, if the team still wants him and has a spot for him, they can bury him in their bullpen for July and August before effectively shutting him down with September's expanded rosters. Then they can freely option him until the spring of 2021. It's not for every team, but a lot of teams who don't plan to contend, or have a very real chance of being out of the race by July, could be willing to do that. I'd hope the Twins are considering doing it themselves if another team left a Thorpe type unprotected -- it might be a better Rule 5 strategy than more traditional picks like JR Graham.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you missed the result today? They are already 6-4 over their last 10, as noted above. Won the finale in NY, then one win in 3 games in Chicago, then 2 of 3 from each of the Rangers and A's at home.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    .500 from here on out will leave us at 68-94. Frankly I am more interested in individual performances and team composition the rest of the way. If we get to 68 wins without answering a lot of questions going into 2017, that's not ideal.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth sort of alluded to this, but it makes no sense. Nolasco is a net negative on any trade package. If someone was willing to eat a significant portion of Nolasco's contract to also acquire Jorge, you'd be better off leaving Nolasco out of it and just trading (or keeping) Jorge. The Twins don't need that level of cash, and just releasing Nolasco could give you the 40-man spot to protect Jorge this winter.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Somehow Tonkin still has the lowest leverage index of any reliever on the staff, at 0.72. Lower than his pre-2016 career mark, even lower than mop-up man Neil Ramirez at 0.79. Hopefully that starts trending up now that Jepsen is gone, and we can get a better idea of what Tonkin can bring to a bigger bullpen role.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Interestingly, the 1981 and 1982 Twins teams both had a similar or worse pace after 81 games, but the 1982 team "rebounded" to 60 wins (and the 1981 team rebounded to a 61 win pace, although the season was shortened by a strike). The 1982 team was 24-57 at the midway point, the worst mark in Twins history (post-1961). It's pretty disheartening to think that simply avoiding 100 losses would represent a big "rebound" at this point...
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    As noted above, it's a FSN issue. Their contract with the Twins buys them the local broadcast rights to all of the games, even if they choose not to actually broadcast all of the games. FSN should waive that right for games they don't broadcast, to allow MLB.TV viewing.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    FSN. They have exclusive local broadcast rights for all of the games, even if they choose not to broadcast them. FSN should be able to waive that for games they choose not to broadcast so you can watch on MLB.TV.
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