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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure if it's that much higher than what we realistically expected. When adjusted for the whole population of minor league players, BA's list might have him ~140th overall. MLB and Sickels probably have him lower. And that's not terribly meaningful -- heck, Sickels does a top 175, and then he listed 145 more players who all had a case to rank between 140-175. I'm not sure there's much difference between a 140 and a 200 or perhaps even a 300. I think if someone had suggested a prospect like that in a hypothetical Nunez trade, I don't think that would have been dismissed as an unrealistic expectation.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I was thinking more along these lines earlier -- that seems hard to quantify. There aren't that many starters who throw that number of innings to think of that as "average 4th" anything. Maybe WAR per IP? Minimum 10 GS in 2015, I found that starters ranked 91-120 by fWAR/IP averaged 1.6 WAR per 162 IP. Then again, only 10 of those 30 starters actually pitched 162 innings. 8 of them didn't even pitch 100. So I'm really not sure who to label as "average #4" or what to expect from them...
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, that makes some sense. Definition #1 actually might hurt our view of Mejia -- Sickels combines 4/5 in his article, and it seems the dividing line for him is more at #3: So if the Fangraphs prospect guy thinks along the same lines as Sickels, his comments about Mejia qualify as "not a bad thing" but short of " a huge compliment."
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    That's how production from the position can be misleading. Travis has a 108 OPS+ this year, career 121 OPS+ if you include his debut last year. And he's healthy and hitting right now. It really doesn't matter that his replacements were terrible earlier this year. (Heck, even if Travis were injured again, they'd probably look for a shorter term fix than Dozier, banking on Travis returning again in 2017.)
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry if I gave that impression, not saying it's not a good trade. But it may not be quite as good as it looked on first glance, when I heard about his "top 100" rank and 9.5 K/9 at AAA. What is a league average 4th starter, by the way, in terms of approximate performance? I kinda get the ace/#2 debate, but I'm not sure how to quantify "league average 4th starter". By the time you get to 4th in the "average" rotation, I think you are generally dealing with pitchers who rise and fall into that spot, rather than guys who are consistently average in the role.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Toronto has Devon Travis healthy again. They're not going to trade or bench him in favor of Dozier right now. Pittsburgh has a full effective infield right now too, if they want to bench Harrison. Freese and Kang, plus Mercer has been hitting this year too. I guess they could slide Freese to 1B, but I don't see them wanting to bench Harrison right now, nor would they probably pay the price we'd want for a guy like Dozier.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    To those that think this trade suggests Antony, as leader, might offer meaningful change from the TR era, and helps his case for the full-time job: does it cancel that out if he has indeed promoted Polanco again to sit on the bench, perhaps behind Danny Santana?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not criticizing the move. I'm on record as fully endorsing the Nunez trade, and giving Antony credit for getting it done (even if I probably over-rated the prospect on first glance). I'm criticizing those who suggest it should matter in Antony's bid for the full time job. I agree that there's pretty much nothing that Antony can do publicly right now to make his bid for the job -- his case, if he has one, would have to come privately in the form of a thorough and comprehensive plan for re-organization and evaluation throughout the front office and player development systems.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    That would be his "ceiling" though, right? What he achieves if he stays healthy and successfully makes the leap to MLB? A lot of prospects would probably be great return if they hit their ceiling. This scouting report doesn't suggest he is a particularly strong bullpen candidate either, if starting doesn't work out. He might not have as much margin for error to provide value even if he doesn't hit that ceiling, as compared to some other pitching prospects.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure about the degree to which Mejia has "stepped it up this year." It was his third go-around in AA, after all. Year / ERA / FIP 2014 / 4.67 / 3.78 2015 / 2.45 / 3.41 2016 / 1.94 / 3.19 His K rate finally climbed to AA league average this season, but just barely (8.0 K/9, vs league average 7.6). His AAA K rate looks better, but in such a small sample -- can he sustain it? The PCL also has a higher strikeout rate than his AA league, or Rochester's AAA International League, so if we give him a PCL ERA/HR discount, we probably also have to discount part of his PCL K rate boost so far too. He's never sustained a K rate this high before -- 7.7 K/9 career.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not really whether it's a good move or bad move, or plus/minus on his resume, it's about the type of move this is, and its degree of importance in fixing the issues in Twins baseball ops. It's like if I was temporarily put in charge of my office, because we had some long-term under-performance under my old boss. And I clean out some old file cabinets and arrange the furniture better, maybe I staff an open clerical spot with what looks like a solid employee. That's great, but it really doesn't address the issues of the long-term under-performance, hence it really shouldn't matter if I am making a case for the permanent job.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Except he's not a top 100, except on BP a year and a half ago and on BA's midseason list which excludes a lot of players. (Last year, BA only published a "top 50" midseason list, which suggests that Mejia may rank about 50 spots lower when the full population of minor league players is considered again this winter. Maybe ranking ~140th? And that might be the high ranking of the lists -- Sickels seemed lower on him than most, C+ and 12th in the Giants system last winter, so I suspect he still may not crack Sickels top 175 this winter. Mejia is an interesting prospect, but there is no evidence that he is currently a "top 100" prospect as the term is commonly understood.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    MLB's list included new draft guys, 15 of them to be exact. Although it included only Berrios and Jay as Twins SP, so perhaps you were thinking of BA's midseason list. I think the world might be better off without the confusion brought upon it by midseason top 100 prospect lists.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Good point. I think that's what moved him up the BA list. I think I had it confused with the MLB midseason update, which did include 2016 draftees but of course did not include Mejia (and only 2 Giants).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    So as not to distract from Seth's article on the Nunez-Mejia trade, I'll comment on this here. Absolutely not. It's a nice move, but the absence of this move was not the problem for the Twins. Thus, it shouldn't really matter in finding the next head of baseball ops. Is there even much evidence that TR wouldn't have made this move? Yeah, TR has been a fairly conservative trader, but Nunez was a pretty obvious trade candidate compared to past guys TR didn't deal (i.e. Willingham 2012, Perkins, etc.). And it was a little early but not particularly so (3 games before the deadline) -- I hope TR wouldn't have waited until later than this to start actively looking to deal. Even if we give Antony credit for this as a move that TR wouldn't have necessarily made, again it doesn't matter in relation to the full-time job. This difference from TR, while nice, isn't particularly meaningful compared to the larger differences we need to be looking for.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    BA seems like the Giants system all right. 5 in the top 100, with Mejia as #5 (and #91 overall). A decent jump from being the Giants #10 preseason. MLB.com has them lower (only 2 Giants in the top 100, Mejia at #7 for the Giants). Preseason Sickels had only 3 Giants in his top 175, with a bunch more in the "others to consider" group (although no Mejia -- he was a C+, #12 for the Giants preseason).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to the differences that ash pointed out, it should be noted that San Francisco is a fairly aggressive trader, which probably inflated our return. It's not necessarily a great guide as to what a generic team might have paid for Nunez, much less for a better player. Mostly that applies to Santana -- I think you'd have to find a team that was both an aggressive trader AND was generous with their spending to get something like this return for him. Unfortunately our often rumored Santana suitor Baltimore seems pretty frugal (and Pittsburgh especially so). Also, while Dozier is worth much more than Nunez, that doesn't mean he'd necessarily fetch a lot more in trade because people might not be willing to pay what he's worth. I guess the appeal of guys like Nunez, while you might have to "overpay" a bit to get them, even an overpay for Nunez costs nowhere near "fair value" (or even a realistic underpay) for a guy like Dozier.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Love the trade, but before we give Antony too much credit, remember that Nunez pretty much had to be traded. He is a utility infielder that isn't good defensively in the infield. Unless you think his first half offense is repeatable, which would be a fireable offense, you pretty much had to deal him now. There was no discretion involved on that side of the transaction. That said, they got a better prospect than I was expecting, so credit to them for timing this well for that.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    And the Rangers would have rejected that offer. Check out the reliever they got in the deal -- sure, he was a waiver wire pickup by the Braves, but the dude has exploded with a 16.8 K/9 so far this year, and he's controllable for a full 6 years, the first several at league minimum salaries. I think he was the centerpiece of the deal, not just some random lefty. Also, an Adam Brett Walker who plays average middle infield defense is a much better prospect than Adam Brett Walker!
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I got what you were laying down! One of the few subtle jokes I have ever picked up on around here...
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    If the other team was taking most of Santana's salary, I'd really have to think about a Gonsalves-equivalent return. While the money saved wouldn't necessarily get you another Ervin in this winter's FA market, it could easily get you one or two short-term upside gambles to fill the rotation spot in the short term. And if those gambles don't work out, hopefully adding another near-ready SP to the current mix of Gonsalves, Stewart, Jorge, and Jay would yield a potential MLB replacement in the near future. (Obviously depends on the particular prospect we are getting too -- not all "Gonsalves equivalents" would really be equivalent to Gonsalves, if that makes sense. )
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Mauer threads are a lot like Mauer himself at this point. You might forget about them for a few days, but they're always there, and always will be there, just easy to overlook.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting. It should be noted that Shields has been much better lately. Actually, folks have been citing the roll that Santana has been on -- 2.02 ERA his last 7 starts. Well, Shields has a 2.11 ERA his last 7 starts. (Santana has the edge on peripherals, but they've both been benefitting from a low BABIP.) Shields is up to an 86 ERA+ on the season, which is pretty incredible compared to where it was a month ago. Also, with the money the Padres are picking up for Shields, the White Sox can shop him now with only $24 mil guaranteed left on his deal, as compared to Ervin's remaining $33 mil.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Ah, good catch. I was a stickler about the buyout before, but I've just read $27 mil so many times now, I thought it included the buyout. So yeah, we're at $33 mil remaining guaranteed on Santana, $5 mil this year and $28 mil after. That said, I think a decent offer for Santana is almost as unlikely as any offer for Nolasco. Even if Santana is a decent pitcher on a decent contract, there just isn't a history of that level of pitcher, at that age and with that kind of contract, getting traded at the deadline for a solid return. I think the deadline is a time when teams want to add premium talent (i.e. Chapman), or they want to get a good deal on someone's surplus asset (i.e. Melvin Upton to the Jays). Santana will fall in the latter group.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Was TR under contract for 2017 too? Gardy was definitely under contract after 2014. I don't really see how Antony being under contract for 2017 is meaningful, assuming that Antony would be owed a far smaller "severance package" than either of those guys.
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