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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    From the other thread -- more selective endpoints! FWIW, even over this cherry-picked sample (which includes his two worst games of the year near the start and end), Kimbrel still had an elite 39.8% K% and .121 opponents batting average, and still a 3.72 FIP and 3.83 xFIP despite the walks. Yeah, he walked too many batters over this sample, which he and the Cubs will obviously try to address, but that's much, much more encouraging than if he stopped striking batters out, or his stuff was getting hit.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    So it was going to be bad if it was over $50 mil.... and then it was still bad when it was confirmed to be only $43 mil? It comes across as fishing for reasons to disparage it. Certainly the club/vesting option year isn't that meaningful -- if it's based on games finished, it's actually probably a good thing for the team -- if he's closing through 2021, he's probably good enough that you want him closing for 2022 too.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think K-BB% is necessarily superior to K%, in this context. Kimbrel has a 40.3% K% in this sample, even with all the walks -- that's like Josh Hader territory. Duffey is at 26.5%, which is pretty close to league average for relievers these days. Those aren't all of a sudden equal indicators just because Duffey walked fewer batters in these 36.1 innings. This is especially evident in Duffey's 1.49 HR/9 over this sample, vs. Kimbrel's at 0.50. Think that control advantage means Duffey is serving up more HR balls in the zone? Also, selective endpoints -- just adding 1.1 innings to the Duffman's sample (Duffey's total 2018-2019 MLB performance to date) and that HR/9 balloons to 2.21. The Duffman has a 5.53 ERA and 4.91 FIP in that span; Kimbrel, 3.13 and 2.71 over his last 37.1 innings (and of course, much better immediately prior to that). Furthermore, Duffey's game-entering leverage index in these innings has been 0.78, which is somewhere between mopup / Rule 5 pick and average. Kimbrel's is 1.66, which is elite reliever territory. There may be reasons to be concerned about Kimbrel, but these cherry-picked stats certainly aren't it.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    It's really, really hard to get good value back on legit, controlled superstars. That's one reason why you rarely see them dealt, unless a team is really bad. Even if you think the next few seasons have low odds, you can take a lot of steps to improve your franchise in that time, short of trading your controlled superstar. (The Twins didn't have a superstar, but they've done a lot of this work since 2016.) If I'm a fan who is frustrated with my team treading water, I would much rather see them shake up the front office and development staff/processes, and trade around the margins, instead of dealing a good, long-term asset. (And to be fair to the Angels, they did change GMs a few years ago.) Most packages of ~4 players/prospects that would be available to you in trade would be at best a small part of your rebuilding effort. Scherzer is at least getting closer to the end of his contract, although I don't think he's quite at the point where prospect offers would likely offset his 2.5 year value -- he's still really good!
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Britton is in NY this year as a FA signing. They only got to rent him briefly via trade. The Yankees punted on one season, with 2 months to go. They didn't punt 2+ seasons. The Yankees traded away maybe 5 future WAR in 2016, mostly Miller. Scherzer might approach 5 WAR in just half a season all by himself, and is controlled for 2 more. Trading a guy like that usually isn't a recipe for avoiding rock bottom, it is the biggest fall toward rock bottom. Theoretically if someone is willing to give up multiple elite prospects and take on all of Scherzer's salary, I agree the Nationals would have to consider that. But generally that's not how these negotiations go (Verlander returned far less in prospects, and Sale cost far less in salary). The more realistic outcome of a Scherzer trade is getting a less than elite prospect package and/or eating significant cash. I don't think they are far enough behind Philly and Atlanta to warrant that.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    You can't just ignore Soto, Turner, and Robles to imply that the Nationals position player outlook is barren. Those are three very good, young players, controlled for the next 4-6 years. That's a young position player core that rivals the Phillies for sure, and isn't too far off from the Braves.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    The 2016 Yankees didn't trade anything remotely like 2.5 years of Max Scherzer, arguably the top SP in baseball. Their biggest move was trading 2.5 years of Andrew Miller, which was admittedly a bold move but very different than trading a starting pitcher. Note that, almost 3 years later, the "haul" for Miller -- including two top 100 prospects -- hasn't really produced much of anything in MLB (although the Yankees did use Justus Sheffield to get James Paxton 2.5 years later). Their next biggest move was trading another reliever, pending FA Chapman (who they later re-signed). They got Gleyber Torres back in that deal, which was pretty incredible. I'm guessing the Nationals and every other team in MLB would deal Chapman for Torres under the same circumstances, but again, very different from dealing Scherzer. Beyond that, they also traded two more minor pending FAs in Beltran and Nova for nothing impressive, although they did use a player from the Beltran deal (Dillon Tate) to help rent Zack Britton last year. Not really a blueprint for the Nationals trading Scherzer to "avoid a rebuild". Losing Scherzer would put them at such a talent deficit over the next 2.5 years, they might as well be rebuilding anyway. But Rendon, Doolittle, Kendrick could perhaps be dealt. Maybe even Strasburg, with his opt out. And those guys could return some pieces to complement Scherzer, Corbin, Soto, Turner, and Robles.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I know the 1993 Phillies picked 4th, with the best record in MLB at the time of the draft. I found that by looking at a list of the biggest single season winning percentage improvements: http://mcubed.net/mlb/bwimp.shtml That led me to suspect the 1993 Giants, but they only had the second best record on draft day and picked 6th. Some others were close: 2001 Twins (2nd best record behind only the 116 Mariners, and picked 1st overall), 2015 Astros (virtual tie for 2nd best record -- with the Twins! -- and picked 2nd overall), 2008 Rays (4th best record, picked 1st overall).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks. I can't find any further info, though. What's your source?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Although it's not as if draftees are free to sign elsewhere. I guess some could re-enter the draft in a later year, but that decision surely doesn't hinge on nominal bonus/salary differences.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the theory is that it would be hard to tell whether something was hit by the roof -- this one was pretty obvious, but others can be more subtle. And players and managers would be arguing for a lot more if they knew it was a judgment call that would change the result of the play.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I've been curious about this question before, so I just looked up the scanned archives of the Minneapolis Tribune -- specifically its TV schedules. I looked at May 19 through June 11, 1981 -- the last 23 Twins games before the strike interrupted the season. 10 out of 13 Twins road games were broadcast on TV. (2 of the missing road games had North Stars hockey broadcasts that same night; the other was Thursday May 28th, the last of a 4 game series vs Texas. KSMP showed Gunsmoke and Hollywood Squares instead. ) Only 1 of 10 Twins home games during this sample was broadcast on TV (Tuesday June 9th vs Milwaukee). Judging from this sample, it does appear that most Twins road games were broadcast on KMSP TV in 1981, but very few home games.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Not quite true. Thankfully, streaming packages make it pretty accessible/affordable without cable. Sling includes FSN and it's $25 per month, so $150 for the season, or roughly the same price as MLB.TV anyway ($120).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    You could sign them to an extension, but I think that would require a 40-man roster spot so you'd start burning options as soon as the deal was signed. And there is a prohibition on signing draft picks to MLB contracts now, so you'd have to wait a while to do it (a year after the draft, perhaps? not sure exactly, although this must be codified somewhere). I'm guessing teams would be loath to agree to this, because the guys with the most leverage to make such a demand would be high schoolers, and they are especially risky / far away from MLB. A lot could go wrong with a high school draftee in just one year. An assurance to put a guy on a (relative) fast track to the majors would probably accomplish mostly the same thing, as far as convincing a guy to sign. Maybe the Nationals did something like that with Giolito, it seems like they promoted him pretty quickly once he was healthy (although Giolito could have also seen their aggressive promotions for Harper and Strasburg and figured those odds on his own, without any special assurance).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    The Rays attendance might improve! More accessible for school groups.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Third tiebreaker is a steel cage fight to the death, though, so odds are they never get to the 4th tiebreaker.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    "Strike while the team is (not) hot"
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    If Cruz is ready (he apparently took BP today), we could activate him and send down Littell tomorrow.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    How does that jingle go? "One walk, one hit, mound visit before it goes to ****..." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxHtEYVmhV8
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    You think the difference in pitching quality alone between A and A+ is greater than .112 worth of batting average? That seems... a little steep. A guy whose average drops by that much between those levels is far more likely to get cut (or at least held back) than promoted, so how is that level of performance "more impressive" for a player? Especially .300 to .188 -- the latter is dangerously close to the lower bound of pro player performance (think pitchers hitting) -- many minor leaguers could bat at least .100 in MLB right now. I guess, from the Twins perspective, it may be more useful to let Helman hit .188 at A+ now than have him repeat A and hit .300. But that doesn't mean .188 is more impressive or anything.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Relative to other draftees more than to other teams at that point, I would think. I'd guess most MLB franchises occasionally get these levels of contributions (Hildenberger and Duffey, to date) from these levels of picks. The rest of your post is spot-on, though -- what sets teams apart is the plus performers. (Although hopefully both Hildenberger and Duffey can still contribute more and move into that category!)
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I am usually the guy that mentions the FSL hitting environment, but I think this is taking it quite a bit too far. Helman has a 47 wRC+ there right now, he's not really holding his own. (And you can't just throw out a nonconsecutive one-third of his at bats when making that determination.) And the FSL batting average is exactly the same as that of the Midwest League (.241), so no, .188 in Ft Myers is not more impressive than .300 in Cedar Rapids, and it's not particularly close. The only encouraging thing about Helman is that his struggles are not related to his K rate. He's generally making contact -- he just needs to make better contact, it appears.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Gracias. Estas cortado también.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    ¿Cómo se dice "You're cut" en español?
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I've got bad news: you didn't make the team. Try again next year!
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