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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd probably put Santiago as more of a #4 by performance, even with his solid ERA, just because he doesn't throw that many innings. But yeah, it's an interesting swap.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure it's possible, if Nolasco pitches fantastically. I'm not sure it really matters at that point, though -- the Angels would probably want him back at that price in 2018 if he pitches fantastically for them. And Nolasco would probably rather hit the open market after 2017 instead. I don't see a case where the Angels get locked into 2018 with Nolasco against their will. Far more likely, Nolasco could get locked into 2018 with the Angels mildly against his will, if he pitches well for them but doesn't quite make 400 IP.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. If Nolasco keeps his current 2016 IP/GS average (which at almost 6 isn't bad), he will finish with 190 IP this year. Meaning he'd have to basically hit his career high in IP in 2017 (212) to make that a player option. Of course, if he is effective enough to get anywhere near 212 innings next year, or to average 7 IP per start down the stretch this year to get to 200, there is a decent chance the Angels would want him back for 2018 at $13 mil. Still, it shouldn't be hard to keep it a team option regardless.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I was just about to post this comparison. Santiago and Milone get there from different ways, but it seems they are both modestly effective left-handers who aren't that valuable around the league, for whatever reason. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=4026,7608
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    For those suggesting that we can flip Santiago this winter or next summer -- doesn't this trade sorta suggest Santiago doesn't have much value? Not saying it is a bad trade for the Twins, but it seems worth noting that the Angels have been shopping Santiago and only wound up with Nolasco and an apparently injured Meyer. Of course, the Angels are a bit of a weird team, with a tendency to make odd moves, and this might be one of them...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I think he means "except" as in "only."
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Keep in mind, folks: it is $4 mil next year, plus $2.4 mil this year. $6.4 mil total the Twins are sending with Nolasco. Assuming they tender Santiago (and I would be surprised if the didn't), they are not saving any money right now.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Note that I said, "less impressive", not necessarily bad.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I think if there is money going from the Twins to the Angels, it makes that deal look far less impressive.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Interestingly, Hector Santiago is actually a FIP over-performer.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fine. I agree. I guess I was more irked about Seth's earlier comment, that the Nunez trade goes in the "plus" column in judging Antony's case for the permanent GM job. I read his "2-for-2" comment here as another "plus" in making that case. Which I think is going way too far -- I think they can be good trades without making a significant difference in Antony's GM bid.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not criticizing anything -- I think this and the Nunez trades are fine moves. But they are pretty much bog standard moves in terms of evaluating an MLB GM or FO. Expendable veteran role players, swapped to contenders at or just before the deadline for modest 40-man roster prospects. Before I break out the applause for Antony or this Twins FO in general, I'd like to see some more creativity. A trade for a non-40 man prospect might have been more creative; an Ervin Santana trade would almost certainly be creative; so would dealing Suzuki given the rest of our catching situation. Now, there's nothing wrong with not accomplishing anything creative in the limited time frame that Antony has been at the GM desk. So he won't get any demerits or criticism from me. But he also won't get "bonus points" or the "perfect score" implied by Seth's "2-for-2" comment.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    If May was performing like 2015, definitely. But I doubt there would be anything there with his current numbers.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I don't think a failure to move Suzuki at this point suggests ineptitude, not like it did back in 2014. Although I think there is a window to get something done -- Milwaukee is apparently asking for a lot on Lucroy, Norris is having a poor season, and McCann will be out of many team's financial range even if the Yankees eat some cash. I think they might be holding back a Suzuki trade because of our lack of viable alternatives at the position, which is defensible but merely shifts the front office ineptitude to a different area...
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    That's not really a useful way of looking at it. First of all, by your definition, he almost can't go 0-for-1 on a player until the trade deadline actually passes (and even then, we'll probably hear how it wasn't really his fault that he couldn't move such-and-such player). And it's not really a hit/no-hit situation -- there are tons of outcomes between going "0-for-1" and "1-for-1" on a trade. I'd say getting an interesting 40-man depth piece for an obvious trade candidate is something like a "league average" performance in terms of trades -- not bad, but short of the perfection implied by "2-for-2".
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe, but the Yankees have kinda been at the forefront of the relief pitcher explosion. They gave Miller a big contract with a limited track record. Then they traded for Chapman when he seemed like a toxic asset. I guess they're really just "lucky" that they have lost a few games to put them out of the race this year, but even then they probably deserve some credit for pulling the plug around 4-5 games out of the wild card.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Nah, I don't think that was Lucroy's real reason for rejecting the deal. He must get along pretty well with Milwaukee management, after all he signed the deal and hasn't really complained that I can recall. The Brewers have to plan for a life after Lucroy, though, and Susac isn't really a threat to Lucroy for the next year anyway.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    That's a nice return, even though Tate isn't exactly setting the pro game on fire. He dropped off of MLB's midseason top 100 (had been #36 preseason). But he was the 4th overall pick just a year ago, and Beltran is of course 2 months of a 39 year old DH (although a pretty darn reliable one, with some big postseason experience too).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think a respected search firm will bring in "filler." Antony may only be a candidate if the Twins want him to be, he likely would not be one of the recommended candidates from the search firm.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Some have speculated Marlins, but I have no idea. I think the bigger risk for players is a surprise trade FROM the Marlins. I think Cot's / Baseball Prospectus has the best contract data, although you'd probably have to comb through team pages manually to find that information -- Lucroy, for example, on the Brewers page: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd consider that a Simon & Garfunkel reference, though.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    The clock doesn't wind down on adding Nolasco this season until August 31st...
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think those are the best numbers to evaluate a reliever. Here are their career numbers in relief: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2008&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=4994,8048 I'm most interested in that K rate.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Question: what Billy Joel song would work well as a reliever's entrance music? "We Didn't Start the Fire" with runners on base, obviously -- but what about the start of an inning?
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    "Only the Good Die Young" was from the 1977 album, "The Stranger." If he starts quoting "River of Dreams", we're in trouble. I'll grant minor references to "Uptown Girl" and "We Didn't Start the Fire".
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