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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    They probably don't want Turner in CF long-term before he has had a chance at SS. Remember Danny Santana? No team knows where it is going to be in 5 years, but that doesn't mean 5 years of control has no value. They have more options with Eaton -- if the team fades after a couple years, they can always flip him to rebuild/reload. If he struggles, well, the last 2 of those 5 years are team options. There is zero time to realistically flip Dozier, and zero chance of extending him as cheaply as Eaton is controlled. Finally, you keep assuming that Dozier is definitively better than Eaton based entirely off of 2016. Eaton has the higher career OPS, for Pete Redfern's sake. Eaton has steadily averaged 16 Rbat the last 3 years. Dozier did post 30 last year, but was actually -2 the year before that, and 13 the year before that. There is a good chance that that Dozier is no better offensively than Eaton in 2017, and an excellent chance that any Dozier advantage is relatively minor (under 10 runs or 1 win). And in terms of defensive value, there really isn't that much difference between an averageish defensive second baseman and a slightly below average defensive CF or an excellent defensive corner outfielder. The 2B positional adjustment is +4, and Dozier has averaged +1 Rfield, for a net +5 runs per season. CF positional adjustment is +3, and Eaton has averaged -2 runs in CF, for a net +1. 4 runs difference, less than half a win. Plus there is evidence that Eaton could be a superlative corner OF -- RF comes with a -6 run positional adjustment, but Eaton had 22 Rdrs in his time in RF last year, more than making up for that and even some potential offensive difference. Not to say that Dozier can't be a better player/fit for some teams, but it is not definitive at all.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Dozier wasn't even a Dozier until a few months ago. I think you overestimate the ease of finding a comparable player to Eaton. He has averaged 5.1 bWAR over the past 3 years. Dexter Fowler's career high is 4.2, and his next best is 2.8. And he's 3 years older than Eaton, and will cost a first round draft pick and a lot more than Eaton's current contract. Not to mention, the Nats don't have unlimited funds. Getting a strong outfielder at a discount is what helps them afford a Max Scherzer. (Moreover, if you are discussing Dozier vs Eaton for the Nats specifically, the Nats are stacked in the middle infield with Turner, Murphy, and Espinosa. There is just no way that Dozier would be of equal value to them as Eaton. The calculus is hopefully different for another club, of course.)
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    You're knocking a .790 OPS, but last year was Dozier's first time topping .762. Consistency also comes into play -- Dozier has a much more volatile projection. Also reports on Eaton's CF defense are somewhat mixed. I wouldn't be surprised if he handled it at an average level for a year or two yet (he is still 2 years younger than Dozier after all). And if you don't like him at CF, you still have a plus corner defender. If Dozier slips a bit defensively at 2B in his 30s, what do you have?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Rumor has it the Nats may move Harper to CF and keep Eaton in a corner.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Below average defensively, not overall. Also, might want to check on that for Dozier. Altuve and Canon both outpaced Dozier by a good amount in bWAR.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    No doubt. But teams aren't necessarily willing to give up a lot of talent to make that particular upgrade.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Florida. Twins has first pick, picked the Marlins choice of player, then flipped him to the Marlins for their choice Santana and some extra cash.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think so. They can protect quite a few players for the minor league phase.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know if teams are in the market for an Ervin type, though.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    "Freaking potent" is probably an oversell, or not taking park factors into account. The Rockies offense was 8th of 15 in the NL, and 16th of 30 in MLB, by wRC+ last year. And that's with career seasons from LeMahieu and Blackmon, and Story probably due for some regression too. And they just spent $70 mil and the 11th overall pick on a lateral move at 1B (plus a backup SS/CF, if you give Desmond credit for positional versatility).
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Desmond is going to play 1B? That's terrible. Desmond had a 104 OPS+ last year, 100 career. The Rockies 1B last year, Mark Reynolds, had a 101 OPS+, and a 104 career mark. And Reynolds graded out as an average defender at 1B too, and played for a $2.6 mil salary. Even Desmond's positional flexibility isn't worth much in Colorado, because they are set at CF and all around the infield. He's basically a glorified 1B and corner OF there.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Some might quibble with "fair deal." After his hot start, Desmond finished last season with a 104 OPS+. He has a 100 career mark, and hasn't been significantly better than that since his age 26-27 seasons. He hasn't been much other than an average defender either. And in the last year of teams being able to lose first round picks, the Rockies just forfeited the #11 overall pick (and its accompanying slot value) for the right to guarantee Desmond $14 mil per year for his age 31-35 seasons. It's a fairly weak market too, so it doesn't look like the Rockies will even be able to sign another FA with qualifying offer attached (which would have effectively bumped Desmond's forfeiture down to a 2nd rounder). Trumbo, Encarnacion, Bautista, Fowler, Jansen, and Turner are the only ones left.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Depends on what you need. If I already have a playoff team, I'd take the risk on Hill. If I need to fill out a rotation just to get to the playoffs, I'd take Ervin. (And if I'm pretty far from the playoffs, I'd probably take the risk on Hill too -- if he works out, he's easier to flip for an impact prospect. I think teams will continue to have interest in Ervin, but will ultimately be fairly wishy-washy about ponying up much to acquire him,)
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Assuming Landa has already signed, he is still eligible for the Rule 5 draft. (The draft is tomorrow, Thursday Dec. 8.) After the Twins non-tendered him, any team could have signed Landa and given him a 40-man roster spot. (And he would have taken a 40-man spot if it was offered elsewhere, better pay and benefits.) The Twins played it well because they correctly identified no one else was willing to give Landa a 40-man roster spot right now, much less make him a Rule 5 pick. But they didn't sneak him past anybody, procedurally.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, we are positive that Urias is untouchable. Urias just came up at age 19 and had MLB success. The only reason we didn't see him more in October is they were protecting his arm. He's graduated from prospect to budding star. By comparison, Giolito is 22 years old and kind of scuffled in his debut. Notice who the Nationals said was untouchable in trade talks? Trea Turner. Notice who the Yankees refuse to consider dealing (and actually cleared a spot for)? Gary Sanchez. Braves? Dansby Swanson. I don't know if those guys will continue performing like superstars, but Urias is closer to that group than he is to the prospects being moved and discussed this winter. And of course, even if there was a hypothetical package that could make Urias not untouchable (touchable? ), it wouldn't be led by Brian Dozier.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Wilson Ramos to the Rays on a 2 year deal pending physical (no other details yet): http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/wilson-ramos-could-be-close-to-signing-perhaps-with-rays.html?fv-home=true&post-id=79599 Edit: Coke to "crapforks" (I've never typed that before! )
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth, I think Bollinger just calls those 3 players "trade pieces" but he doesn't actually say they have fielded calls about them (unlike Dozier).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought it was the exchange rate. 103 US losses = 106 Canadian
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Chris Sale to the Red Sox: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/red-sox-to-acquire-chris-sale.html?fv-home=true&post-id=79501 Moncada leads the haul back to the White Sox.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, both can be "true" in the sense that the Yankees don't want their incumbent infielders to know. But they are probably under no illusion that what Cashman says to a reporter will affect the Dodgers. I think the amount of specific outright lies between actual GMs is far lower than you are suggesting.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I doubt teams can really control that. The Twins can tell.the Dodgers they are talking to the Yankees, and if the Yankees still deny it, they just look like fools. Possibly, the Yankees issue a public denial to keep the confidence of the player they would be replacing, but I assure you all the teams involved know who is actually involved (as much as it would affect them and their offers, of course).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Not likely. The reason that those high end closers are getting paid is that most teams do not have an internal equivalent. Not so for Perkins or Kintzler, most teams have their own rehab project or journeyman or better on whom they can roll the dice first. If those guys have a solid first half, you might be able to place them somewhere, but right now, you're not getting any value back.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. But at least I feel like the opportunity will be adequately explored with the new front office.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to the comments above, Jose Berrios isn't exactly a hot commodity right now. He still has value, of course, but he's not going to contribute to a major trade package at the moment like Jose De Leon or Dansby Swanson, or some other top prospect not coming off an 8.02 ERA season. For that matter, I'm not sure how much value 2 years of Brian Dozier would offer the White Sox -- they already have a couple average-ish guys in the middle infield. The only way Dozier makes any sense is if they are going for it in 2017-2018, in which case trading Sale doesn't make any sense. If they are going for it in 2017-2018, it would make much more sense to keep Sale and try patching the black holes on their roster, like catcher, CF, and the back of the rotation. (Arguably that's what they have been trying to do the last few years -- the Sale talks are an indication they are willing to break from that to rebuild with an elite prospect package.)
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    But arbitration suppresses salaries pretty well, especially a second-time arb eligible player like Dozier would have been this winter. It's difficult to be THAT significantly underpaid at that point. So the "cost control" aspect of the contract is only saving ~$3 mil at this point, maybe a few more million next winter depending on his 2017 performance. Obviously, there is nothing we could change about this contract that would bring Urias into play (other than perhaps replacing Dozier's signature with Mike Trout's ). But he's really not that much better of a trade piece today, owed $15 mil over the next 2 years, than he would have been owed ~$21 mil or whatever through arbitration over the same time. ~$30 mil for 3 years of control would probably make him a little better trade target, and of course an option year would have been best. (Still no Urias, though!)
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