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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Thome's teammate Orlando Hudson was 2.9 bWAR / 3.0 fWAR for us in 2010.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Not really. Cruz is at 3.7 bWAR. Corbin has 4.8 bWAR for the surging, wild-card Nationals. Donaldson had 4.2 bWAR for the first-place Braves. Brantley, 4.9 bWAR for the first-place Astros. LeMahieu, 4.9 bWAR for the first-place Yankees. Charlie Morton, 4.6 bWAR for the wild card Rays. Heck, Mike Fiers has 3.6 bWAR for the contending A's. Lance Lynn, of course, at 5.9 bWAR. Ryu is on a qualifying offer for the Dodgers -- does that count? 5.1 bWAR.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Not a traditional "free agent", but that's how Brian Harper was acquired by the Twins. And he put up 13.4 bWAR over 6 seasons, plus an .802 OPS over 12 games (9 starts) in the postseason.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Radke was only a "free agent signing" for this last 2 seasons. I guess they were worth 2.8 and 1.8 bWAR. Hughes might match that, even with the downside years (4.5 and 1.5 bWAR his first 2 years). Tewksbury was 3.2 and 3.3 bWAR in his 2 seasons here. If we're counting "re-signings" like Radke, then Puckett would be a contender -- he re-signed after 1992, and put up 3.6 and 3.1 bWAR in the two strike-shortened seasons. Carl Pavano would be in the mix too: 3.8 and 1.8 bWAR his first 2 full years here. Hrbek was another re-sign FA after 1989 -- his best years were behind him, but he managed 8.4 bWAR over the next 4 years.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    For me, this is the issue. I didn't think Alcala and Celestino were chopped liver, and I didn't think Pressly was an all-star -- but a hopeful contender shouldn't be in the business of dealing useful present-day assets, at a position of need, for a longer term "fair return." For me, you either need to bet right and sell on a player just before his performance declines, or it needs to be a return that is truly "too good to refuse". And while the jury is still out, that's going to be a high bar for Alcala and Celestino to clear. It won't be a simple WAR accounting to figure out the ultimate outcome of this trade -- whatever contributions Alcala and Celestino make, we will have had multiple seasons/offseasons to plan for. By comparison, we had very little time/opportunity to adequately replace Pressly's utility.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Silver lining: assuming the Angels don't add him back to the 40-man (and they'd be fools to do that after outrighting him this late in the season), Mejia can elect to be a free agent after the season. He will still probably have to sign a minor league deal somewhere for 2020, but at least he will have his choice of destination.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    That's funny. I didn't have access to SportsCenter, but I remember hearing on the schoolyard that the Twins "traded for a 20 game winner" -- but nobody could tell me his name! And then I was racking my elementary school brain all day trying to figure out who it was. (I didn't realize at the time that Smiley won 20 games in 1991. I knew Drabek did in 1990, but I also knew his Cy Young Award that year was the more notable accomplishment.)
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    By bWAR, Cruz is up to 3.7, vs Morris' 4.3 from 1991. He may very well pass him in that metric by the end of the season. But Morris went 4-0, 2.23 ERA across 5 starts that postseason too. I think Nelson would need a great postseason to match Morris, even if he claims a regular season WAR advantage. (And as a bonus, Morris opted out of his contract and left after the World Series win, so we weren't stuck with his ultimate decline years!)
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah. You pointed out Thome's edge in rate stats, but Cruz already has 3.7 bWAR vs Thome's 3.6, and 3.5 fWAR to Thome's 3.1. And there's still over a month to go. Some of Cruz's advantage in playing time was perhaps Thome sitting so Mauer could DH -- but some of was just Thome just getting rest because he was old, broken-down Thome. He only started 99 games the year before in 2009, 78 in 2010, and 78 in 2011 too. Cruz already has 84, on pace for 107 even with the IL stints so far. (Heck, maybe some of Nelson's bench/IL time in 2019 is because the Twins have an epic, historic lineup and we could afford to be cautious with Nelson too.) And Cruz probably can't do any worse than Thome's 2010 postseason performance. So I'm pretty comfortable giving the nod to Nelson already in this head-to-head matchup.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think anything I said was incorrect, but we might be misunderstanding each other. Fangraphs may run a bunch of simulations to get those odds -- but the data input to those simulations already contains advantages for the Twins -- namely, more regular season wins so far, and an easier remaining schedule. Those advantages are reflected in both the playoff qualification odds, and the odds of advancement (primarily because we can qualify in a better position to advance as a division champ vs a wild card). So each of those odds is based on the others in the chain -- for example, Fangraphs gives the Tigers a 0% chance to advance to the ALCS, because they are already 0% to make to postseason. But I think the other poster could be talking about an "all else being equal" hypothetical comparison. Hypothetically, if the Tigers could qualify like the Twins hopefully will, their chances for advancement would be higher than zero -- although these Tigers might still be pretty close to 0%. So we can't necessarily use the Fangraphs chained odds to conclude that the Twins are more likely to advance than Cleveland, *all else being equal*. Of course, we can't conclude the opposite either. And in reality, all else isn't equal, and the Twins are currently more likely to win the division, and thus already have an advantage toward potential advancement.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, sorry. I edited it now.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Replying to myself: While Gordon could be moved to the MLB 60-day DL to open up another 40-man spot, it wouldn't be enough to make a non-40-man player eligible for the postseason. Apparently days on the minor league DL don't count toward him serving the minimum 60 days: "However, time spent on a minor league 7-day Injured List or minor league 60-day Injured List does NOT count toward the minimum number of days a player must spend on an MLB Injured List if a player is recalled from an optional assignment or has his contract selected and is added to an MLB 40-man roster prior to being reinstated from a minor league injured list." https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3538
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    We already have a ton of depth and flexibility on our roster, though. At full strength, we have Marwin, Adrianza, Astudillo, Cave, and possibly even Arraez on our bench, collectively capable of playing anywhere in a variety of configurations. Even if multiple regulars go down, there is really no need to dip down into guys like Lewis or Kirilloff (who haven't exactly lit the world on fire at AA). Same on the pitching side -- while Graterol and Alcala are intriguing additions, we have about a bazillion other pitchers already. A ton of relievers, including some promising ones who can't even fit on our 25-man right now (Littell), and several capable of starting too (Thorpe, Smeltzer, Dobnak). I can't see any circumstances where you would need to reach down for Duran coming off a non-dominant AA performance.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Who would you want to see in the postseason that won't already be on the 40-man on August 31st? There is still an open spot to add Graterol; another could be opened fairly easily for Alcala if he warrants it (I am thinking Diplan's or Stewart's spot). I don't really see anybody else -- the minor league season ends Sep. 2nd, so it's not like a guy like Rooker is going to change minds with a dominant September performance. And we're not going to call someone up to make their MLB debut in the postseason either. If someone gets injured *during* the postseason, we can also replace them with a non-roster player who was in the org on August 31st. We don't need any guys on the IL to do that. (Might come in handy for a true catching emergency -- Wilin Rosario? Or maybe if we had a Billy Hamilton pinch runner type who got hurt in the postseason, and we wanted to replace him with an Ian Miller in a similar role.) Edit to add: I suspect getting Astudillo and Wade some MLB reps in September is more important than trying to sneak other guys on the roster. Astudillo will be needed if there is any catcher injury, and Wade may be needed in case of an outfielder injury.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Those odds are all based on each other. If you are less likely to make the playoffs than another team, or less likely to make it as a division champ as opposed to a wild card, your subsequent odds of making the next round will be lower too, even if both teams are technically projected to identical future performance. So the poster could be correct that the Indians could be favored to advance more than the Twins assuming they both enter in equal position/circumstance. That said, I'm not sure what evidence suggests Cleveland would be favored to advance, even if we normalized the other factors (current record/schedule, division vs wild card). I don't know of any source that publishes such odds. It could be someone's opinion, though.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I do dislike the air raid sirens. My wife wondered if they are a public safety hazard too. Funny thing, first Wednesday of every month, public emergency systems are tested between 1:00-1:15 PM. So actual emergency sirens went off during the Twins game vs Atlanta at Target Field on August 7. I wonder if fans noticed the difference.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    This article is about "non-roster" guys (meaning non-40-man roster guys). I expect most guys already on the 40-man, like Hildenberger, Smeltzer, Stashak, Littell, etc., will all be recalled.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting question. If they do go forward with the 28 man limit, I wouldn't be surprised if there is an September injury/activation exception added to the option rule.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    You are correct, players can only be optioned to minor league teams still playing. Thus, a 28 man September roster limit might put more value on minor league teams making the postseason, playing deeper into September. Although I wouldn't be surprised if the 28-man September limit gets changed before implementation. (Likewise with the 3 batter minimum rule.)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I wonder if Nick Gordon could find himself transferred to the MLB 60-day DL to open up another 40-man spot in September (assuming we fill our currently open spot first, of course). He seems to be the top candidate for such a move -- our other injured guys on the 40-man all seem to be near or hopefully returning (Buxton, Astudillo, Wade, Gonsalves, Poppen).
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup, Graterol and Alcala both need 40-man spots. A few more spots should open after the season from free agents -- Schoop, Castro, Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineda, Perez (option), Romo. A few may re-sign and need to be re-added to the 40-man roster, of course, but perhaps after the Rule 5 draft in December. So we could protect a guy like Alcala, and later drop a guy like Stewart if necessary. But yeah, I imagine Stewart is definitely near the bubble, along with Diplan.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    To add more confusion, they actually could send them back down and still not burn an option year, as long as they spend less than 20 days down. That should prevent Dobnak from burning an option, for example -- added to the 40-man and called up August 8, sent down August 15 -- he could finish the Rochester season (Sep. 2) with only 19 days on optional assignment, then get recalled to MLB on Sep. 3. (Rochester making the playoffs might complicate that, of course!)
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I still don't get this take. Rochester needs pitchers too, especially in their own pennant race when we keep calling up their best pitchers, using them, then sending them back when they are unavailable for a few days. It wouldn't shock me if O'Rourke got a cameo in September for the Twins, but it also wouldn't shock me if he was just like every other AAA depth signing either.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I've mentioned it before, and in fact mentioned it earlier on this thread (although in the context of Anderson). If the front office was planning to change pitching coaches, I would think that would be an argument toward keeping Pressly too. Wouldn't you want your new pitching coach to work with your best guys? And wouldn't you not want to move a pitcher in part due to the faults of the previous coach? No argument there from me, the Twins could still win the trade -- although in my opinion, Alcala and Celestino still have quite a bit of work to do to make that happen. By the time Celestino or Alcala is ready to meaningfully contribute at the MLB level, we'll likely have had a few seasons worth of time and transactions to address those spots otherwise since the trade. We had much less time/options to address the 2019 bullpen without Pressly in the fold. (We've done all right with the pen in 2019, but in the modern game, more bullpen confidence is always appreciated.) I think that's part of why it's such a rare trade -- a hopeful contender dealing a cheap and useful present-day asset for relatively fungible longer-range assets (Alcala and Celestino both being 40 FV prospects at the time of the deal, although hopefully they can eventually distinguish themselves more than that).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Pressly wasn't an all-star yet, but he was performing well at the time of the trade, with peripherals that suggested even more -- arguably our best reliever of the season as of July 27, 2018. Nothing is ever guaranteed about the future, of course, but he was clearly a player with a high level of utility for the Twins in 2019 -- a level that would be difficult to replace on the FA market (or by trade, or internally). It doesn't take any hindsight about his Astros performance to make that case, and indeed many posters made that case at the time of the trade.
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