Bill

Yes!!!!

Literally.

Remarkably, Eddie Rosario has 0 walks in 74 at bats. He is hitting for average and extra bases, but I would think some pitcher would have throw 4 straight over his head by now. Seems he's still in this mode: http://m.mlb.com/video/v372768683/clemin-rosario-launches-solo-homer-off-tomlin

Please do not give away Arcia now... He already hit 20 homers in a season in MLB and 30 seems to be within reason. He is in a funk this year, for sure. But I think he can come out of it.

That was too hasty... make it 55-45.

50-50 chance he is better than Fein the rest of the season.

Here are videos of Hicks making good running catches on the track: http://m.mlb.com/min/video/v117948283/tbmin-hicks-tracks-down-forsythes-drive-at-track http://m.mlb.com/min/video/v112193983/mindet-hicks-makes-catch-near-fence-to-rob-cabrera Here are links to other good plays, also while taking good routes: http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/11493214/v128475183/must-c-catch-hicks-hauls-in-out-with-incredible-dive http://m.mlb.com/video/v130705183/bosmin-hicks-robs-nava-on-a-great-diving-catch/?game_pk=414316 Just examples, but I think he is playing good defense overall. Hitting is better than it was before also, although stats are not good so far.

Feeling optimistic... Already been to Target Field three times this year. Saw Plouffe's grand slam a few weeks ago and his three-run homer yesterday. My son is talking playoff tickets!

We held Cespedes in check!!

I thought it would be useful to think about what sort of careers these players might have by comparing the prospects to some past MLB players. For each prospect, I have listed below an MLBer that the prospect would be comparable to in the best case (i.e., if the prospect does the best that could reasonably be hoped). I also listed a player I think the prospect will most likely end up like. Below BC="Best Case" comparison, MLC="Most-Likely Case" comparison, and DMM="Doesn't make the majors". Let me know what you think. Thorpe: BC=Mike Flanagan, MLC=DMM Kepler: BC=Fred Lynn, MLC=John Lowenstein Gonsalves: BC=Scott McGregor, MLC=DMM Walker: BC=Lee May, MLC=Mike Devereaux Rogers: BC=Scott McGregor, MLC=Tippy Martinez Duffey: BC=Storm Davis, MLC=Sammy Stewart Turner: BC=Rick Dempsey, MLC=Dave Skaggs Reed: BC=Tim Stoddard, MLC=DMM Harrison: BC=Doug Decinces, MLC=Craig Worthington Minier: BC=Ken Singleton, MLC=DMM

Let him start the season in AAA, and play everyday there against both righties and lefties. If he does well for a few months, then bring him up. There is no point in making him a platoon player in the majors yet.

No cable... so no playoff baseball games for me or my kids. We listen on the radio a little, but I must say that I find it hard to listen to announcers I am not used to. It is shortsighted by MLB that none of these games are available on free TV.

I listen to every game on the radio, although you can do other things with the radio on. My attention may seriously wane by the end of the game and I often do not make it all the way through. They have kept my attention because there are plenty of (hopefully) up-and-coming players to follow. Also, I guess listening to the game is just a habit that I like.

Yes, I read that one some time back... I think one additional point is that Arcia drops his hands but does not bring them back up to start his hands forward. If you look at the 6 second mark of the Ortiz video I linked, it shows Ortiz in almost the same position as Arcia in the still photo from your earlier article. The big difference is that Ortiz gets his hands back up, but Arcia does not.

My amateur batting coaching.... I think the biggest issue is the location of the hands when they start forward. Lots of guys have big leg kicks and move their hands around before the swing. But when the hands start to move forward they are around shoulder level. Arcia's are very low when they start forward. Check out David Ortiz in the video link below. He has a huge leg kick and drops his hands. But when the hands start forward, they are back up at shoulder level. Look at the 9 second mark of this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q29688HqdQ8 Look at the 26 second mark of this old video of Arcia from Fort Myers. Hands are much lower when they start to go forward: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kh_Ka3TkyHY Arcia is still doing that, but he has added a big leg kick. Bautista is another big leg kicker but his hands are again much higher when they start to come forward. Look at the 15 second mark of this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gm7GFYVubSE Arcia's low hand position is going to make it very tough for him to hit pitches that are not low.

Was he very deep? I did not see the game. I have been at two games this year, and Dozier was very deep (maybe 5 yards onto the grass) each time the shift was put on. In one case a routine slow ground ball was hit straight to him. He had to charge hard and made a throwing error. In another case, the ball was hit harder and he did not charge and he got the runner by only half a step. Playing very deep may take away some bloop hits, but in the few times I have been watching he seemed too deep when the shift is on.

If Bugs is pitching there is no hope... As best as I can tell the the league hits about .180 with two strikes, so Arcia is a bad but not monumentally bad two-strike hitter when viewed through that lens. No doubt it is hard to make changes. On the other hand, given his current results with two strikes, there does not seem to be much downside for him in trying to put greater emphasis on making contact in those situations where there are two strikes. Arcia's good outcomes seem to just about all come with fewer than two strikes. And nothing happens after two strikes because the at bat is then over. Maybe he is already trying this and just hasn't succeeded yet. Or maybe he isn't and will come around with his current approach.

Arcia is batting .142 with 1 homer and 108 strikeouts when hitting with two strikes. If he would just dial his swing back a little bit with two strikes and keep his approach the same as it currently is whenever there are fewer than two strikes, then there would be a marked overall improvement.

Colabello has the Twins' third highest OPS since the All-Star break with .796 behind Arcia and Dozier. I hope he continues to get a shot.

Not a problem for Joe!

I have only seen a few games this month on TV but it has looked to me that Plouffe is trying to go the other way more. His spray chart for July compared with previous months suggests he is not hitting fly balls to the left side now.

Ruiz hit MLB righties well in 2009 (OPS of 1.090 against righties in the year he got 115 total MLB at bats with Toronto). I see that he is not hitting righties well this year in AAA. Both are small samples. Is there a website that show previous years' MiLB splits? Just wondering if he did not make it because of actual performance (e.g., weak hitting against righties) or because it was felt that his game would not translate to the majors.

I just looked up Randy Ruiz. It looks like he has been good at every level of the minors and also in the few at bats he has had in the majors. He seems pretty good right now in AAA. Does anyone know why he has never gotten an extended chance in the majors?

What do the Twins need to win the pennant in 2015 or 2016? Well, several things. But the biggest deficiency of the current 2013 Twins team is starting pitching. The starters' ERA of 5.35 ranks last in the AL and last in the majors. The Twins have just 2 of the 45 pitchers in the AL with enough innings to qualify for the ERA leader board. One of the two is Scott Diamond, who is ranked 45th among the 45 with an ERA of 5.52 (and who just snuck in with 88 innings over the Twins' 87 games as of today). The other is Kevin Correia, who is ranked 29th with an ERA of 4.19. The overall ERA among AL starters is 4.30.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] 2013. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.30 Twins Starter ERA: 5.35, AL rank: 15 Qualified Starters (Twins have 2 of 45 current AL ERA qualifiers): Correia 4.19 (AL ERA rank 29), Diamond 5.52 (45) ----- What sort of starting pitching do AL pennant winners have? To answer this question, I looked at all the AL pennant winners going back to 2001. On average, AL champs' starters ranked about 3rd (average rank of 3.16) in the AL in ERA over the 12 years of 2001-12, and on average they had 3.67 starters that were good (and healthy) enough to pitch enough innings to qualify for the AL ERA leaderboard. An average of 3.25 of those starters had an ERA better than the league average for starters. The pennant winners usually had at least one starter in the AL top 10 in ERA. The details for 2001 through 2012 are below. What can we project for Twins starters in 2015/16? An optimistic scenario is that two of Meyer, May, Diamond, Hendriks, Gibson, Worley, and Berrios can post ERA's better than league average as starters. A very optimistic scenario is that three will. A pessimistic scenario is that none will. If things turn out badly for all of Meyer, May, Diamond, Hendriks, Gibson, Worley, and Berrios in 2015/16 then I think there is really little that can be done for the Twins in those years and we can start thinking about 2017 or later. So I am not even going to worry about the pessimistic scenario. If we are somewhat optimistic and suppose that 2 of those 7 are successful starters in 2015/16 (better than league average ERA) then I think we still need two more high quality starters who are not with the organization now. One of those two should be a guy who can produce a top ten ERA. Will the Twins fork over the money and/or make the trades to do it? ----- 2012. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.39 AL Champ: Detroit, Starter ERA: 3.76, AL rank: 2 Qualified Starters (Detroit had 3 of 36 AL ERA qualifiers): Verlander 2.64 (AL ERA rank 2), Scherzer 3.74 (14), Porcello 4.59 (26) 2011. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.23 AL Champ: Texas, Starter ERA: 3.65, AL rank: 3 Qualified Starters (5 of 42): Wilson 2.94 (7), Harrison 3.39 (15), Ogando 3.51 (19), Holland 3.95 (24), Lewis 4.40 (33) 2010. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.27 AL Champ: Texas, Starter ERA: 4.23, AL rank: 7 Qualified Starters (3 of 43): Lee 3.18 (5), Wilson 3.35 (10), Lewis 3.72 (16), 2009. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.63 AL Champ: New York, Starter ERA: 4.48, AL rank: 5 Qualified Starters (3 of 30): Sabathia 3.37 (4), Burnett 4.04 (19), Pettitte 4.16 (24) 2008. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.50 AL Champ: Tampa Bay, Starter ERA: 3.95, AL rank: 2 Qualified Starters (4 of 40): Shields 3.56 (12), Garza 3.70 (15), Sonnanstine 4.38 (28), Jackson 4.42 (29) 2007. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.63 AL Champ: Boston, Starter ERA: 4.21, AL rank: 2 Qualified Starters (3 of 37): Beckett 3.27 (6), Matsuzaka 4.40 (28), Wakefield 4.76 (32) 2006. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.75 AL Champ: Detroit, Starter ERA: 4.00, AL rank: 1 Qualified Starters (4 of 39): Verlander 3.63 (7), Rogers 3.84 (11), Robertson 3.84 (12), Bonderman 4.08 (14) 2005. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.56 AL Champ: Chicago, Starter ERA: 3.75, AL rank: 2 Qualified Starters (4 of 44): Buehrle 3.12 (3), Garland 3.50 (9), Contreras 3.61 (11), Garcia 3.87 (21) 2004. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.85 AL Champ: Boston, Starter ERA: 4.31, AL rank: 3 Qualified Starters (5 of 43): Schilling 3.26 (2), Martinez 3.90 (9), Arroyo 4.03 (12), Wakefield 4.87 (27), Lowe 5.42 (38) 2003. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.70 AL Champ: New York, Starter ERA: 4.02, AL rank: 3 Qualified Starters (4 of 39): Mussina 3.40 (8), Clemens 3.91 (15), Pettitte 4.02 (16), Wells 4.14 (18) 2002. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.59 AL Champ: Anaheim, Starter ERA: 4.00, AL rank: 4 Qualified Starters (3 of 37): Washburn 3.15 (7), Ortiz 3.77 (15), Appier 3.92 (19) 2001. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.68 AL Champ: New York, Starter ERA: 4.34, AL rank: 4 Qualified Starters (3 of 34): Mussina 3.15 (2), Clemens 3.15 (9), Pettitte 3.99 (15) View full article