Parker Hageman

Download attachment: USATSI_7913715.jpg With just a few days remaining before the Twins were to travel to Chicago to begin the 2014 season, Chris Parmelee got the sickening news that his services would not be needed at the major league level. Out of options, the Twins were willing to expose him to waivers and risk losing him to another organization. As an additional gut punch, all of the other organizations in baseball said “eh, no thanks”. Shortly after receiving the news at Hammond Stadium, Parmelee had the appearance of someone who had just died, the exact person whom Jake Taylor was referring to in the movie Major League. In the clubhouse that morning, he was walking in a daze, slowly packing items from his locker and trying to process what had just happened. Occasionally a player or coach would walk by and offer some platitudes. In front of a handful of media members in the offices at the stadium, Twins assistant GM Rob Antony remarked that Chris Colabello out-performed him and then mentioned a few adjustments that the team was hoping Parmelee would make if he made the decision to stay with the organization. “[Parmelee] needs to regroup. He hasn’t gotten the job done,” Antony explained. “He’s had opportunities. We need him to be a run-producer. He needs to be a profile guy who can play first base, play the corner outfield positions and drive in runs. And to me, he’s become way too passive at the plate, taking pitches, taking strikes, taking first-pitch fastballs down the middle. He needs to go up there with the mentality that he’s going to do some damage trying to be aggressive.” Ultimately, with $242,200 of salary on the line to stay with the Twins, Parmelee accepted his reassignment to Rochester and went to work improving his offense. In regards to Antony's and the Twins’ assessment of Parmelee being too passive, the numbers do not necessarily reflect that notion. In most circumstances -- taking first-pitch fastballs in the zone or taking pitches in general -- Parmelee is right around league average. In fact, last year Parmelee held an above-average swing rate in hitter's counts (48% vs the 44% league-average rate according to ESPN/TruMedia). More than likely, the Twins just wanted him to swing aggressively -- not so much in which circumstance. Parmelee’s 2014 season, his third tour of the International League, started off with a bang. He compiled seven home runs in 32 games, putting himself near the top of the leaderboard. Naturally, the reaction from the fan base was that this performance was nothing new -- after all, those who remember his 2012 season in Rochester will recall that he dropped 17 dingers in 64 games before posting yawn-inducing numbers in 2013. How was this output any different than the circumstances in 2012? Was Parmelee simply a AAAA player, one destined to wax AAA pitching but never make the jump in the major leagues? The biggest reason why this season is likely more comparable to the 2012 year (and provides the hope that this is finally his breakthrough) has to do with him regaining the aggression in his swing. In 2013 and during spring training, Parmelee had changed his swing from the previous year. What Parmelee demonstrated last year was a more contact-oriented approach in his swing, specifically his lower-half. Parmelee implemented a toe-tap in his stride that may have reduced his ability to drive the ball: http://i.imgur.com/EBGa5nD.gif This approach followed him into spring training this year, which the Twins evaluators took note of: http://i.imgur.com/pSqCaij.gif Perhaps the realization that he could be jobless encouraged Parmelee to make changes. Whatever the reason, wherever the encouragement came from, Parmelee began to swing with more vigor. It was during this stretch that we see his transition from the toe-tap to the full leg-lift which led to seven home runs in 32 games: http://i.imgur.com/4fPXBre.gif That method has continued upon his call up to Minnesota: http://i.imgur.com/HuPgetr.gif With this swing, Parmelee is able to engage his hips better and generate more power, as we have seen with his prodigious home runs. The Twins challenged Chris Parmelee to become more aggressive at the plate. He did. Will this power continue? Like the adaptations that Chris Colabello and Trevor Plouffe made to their swings, the real test comes with how they respond once pitchers change their approach. As has been the case with Colabello and Plouffe, pitchers have worked them away more often and that has sent them into prolonged funks. It is possible that Parmelee’s newfound aggression could be used against him -- like fewer fastballs and more off-the-plate pitches. [/hr]Because the Twins won yesterday, you can get a half price large or extra-large pizza today (Friday) from PapaJohns.com when you use the promo code TWINSWIN. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Braun.jpg No one would blame Liam Hendriks if he wakes up in the middle of the night because of some horrific dreams involving Ryan Braun. After all, the Brewers outfielder tormented Hendriks throughout the afternoon, going 2-for-2 with a pair of home runs and a walk. Braun has inspired fear in all of baseball’s pitchers - now amassing 19 home runs thanks to his multi-homer day at Target Field - and Milwaukee’s big right-handed bat showed why he’s such a good hitter, grinding through a nine-pitch match-up in the third inning and finally got Hendriks to throw something that he could handle. After falling behind 1-2 in the count, Braun made Hendriks labor and fouled off three pitches, working himself into a full count and drove the Hendriks’ fastball into the right field flower bed for an opposite field home runs – a rare feat for a right-handed hitter a Target Field. “Braun’s a strong guy and knows what he’s looking for,” said manager Ron Gardenhire. “He knows how to come to the plate and knows how to protect. He fights off some pitches and finally gets to a pitch he can do something with.” Meanwhile, one pitch later, Aramis Ramirez would pull a first-pitch slider over the fence, giving Milwaukee a quick four run lead, ample cushion for Brewers’ starter Michael Fiers who kept the Twins hitters off-balanced with an array of pitches including a very good cutter and slow curve. Fiers managed to avoid any damage from the league’s hottest hitter, Trevor Plouffe, by bypassing the strike zone altogether, walking him in two of their three match-ups on the afternoon. In all, Plouffe would be walked three times in the game – a career-high for the Twins third baseman. Whether this was a strategy implemented by the Brewers in response to Plouffe’s monumental month is unknown, but Gardenhire gave him plenty of credit for not caving into those pitches out of the zone. “Trevor didn’t chase, he didn’t give in. Whether they are pitching around him or not, I don’t know but I know he didn’t chase the pitches and force the issue.” Braun, Plouffe’s off-season workout compatriot, would strike again in the fifth, sending his second home run on the day in the bullpen and equaling Plouffe’s multi-home run game from the night before. In response to the second shot, Hendriks said it was not his intention of giving Braun something he could handle on that particular pitch. “I threw a slider which I did not get it off the plate enough – I was trying to get it away off the plate for a ball – and I left it a little bit over and he put a good swing on that one as well” The three home runs allowed by Hendriks on the day was the sixth time this season one Twins pitcher has allowed a trifecta of home runs in a game. Despite being hit with the loss, Hendriks’ day was not all bad. In five innings he did strikeout five, walked just one and coaxed seven ground ball outs to just two fly ball outs but, in a rare defensive off-day for Jamey Carroll, the veteran second baseman committed two errors – just the second time he has done so in one game in his career. Had Carroll been able to corral the second inning grounder or held on to the foul pop from Braun in the fifth, Hendriks may have come away from his first start back in Minnesota since the May demotion a little less scathed. Still Hendriks, who was coming off a 125-pitch start for Rochester seven days ago, did not look crisp as he fell behind hitters early in the game and had required 39 pitches through the first two innings. Being behind shifted the advantage to the Brewers’ offense, which took control of the game. “I think you saw Hendriks behind in the count quite a bit,” said Gardenhire. “He left his breaking ball up a couple of times and they made him pay for it, banged it out of the ballpark.” Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Worley.jpg After his start on Opening Day, I chatted with Twins starter Vance Worley about his on-going efforts to add a change-up to his arsenal. Worley’s response was that he had not been quite comfortable throwing this particular pitch. Being a “feel” pitch, the right-hander bounced between throwing a split-finger change and a more conventional circle changeand he admitted to rarely throwing a change-up[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] On Saturday at USCellular Field, Worley told reporters after his start that he threw two change-ups to the White Sox lead-off hitter, Alejandro De Aza. In the second pitch of the game, Worley tossed an 80 mile per hour change in the middle of the zone that De Aza fouled off to move it to a 0-2 count. After a fastball for a ball, Worley went back to the change. This time, De Aza jacked it for a solo home run. Here’s what Worley said after that game: It was the only really bad pitch in Worley’s otherwise flawless afternoon – one in which he struck out seven in seven innings while allowing just five hits. In terms of his on-going development process, we see that Worley may not be quite ready to throw the change regularly. On that particular change to De Aza, we see a few things. The first is that he used a split-change – as you can see by his grip: Download attachment: Worley_Splitchange.PNG A split-change is a downgraded version of the split-finger fastball, in which a pitcher spreads the index and middle finger some, giving it some vertical drop while decreasing the velocity. Of the three he threw on Saturday, Worley’s change showed a velocity decrease of 7-to-9 miles per hour compared to his fastball, adding some needed deception. The issue, as Worley said a few weeks ago, is gaining the “feel” for the pitch – ball guy lingo for being able to locate at will. This offering to De Aza did not reach the intended target, in fact, it drifted all the way back over the plate into the Chicago outfielder’s swing zone. Here we see Mauer’s requested target – down and away where change-ups have a high percentage of success. Note the red circle where the pitch actually reached the zone: Download attachment: Worley_Target.jpg Download attachment: Worley_Location.jpg What we can deduce from this is that Worley’s changeup is still very much a work in progress. It’s possible that instances like this may shake his confidence in the pitch and keep him from using it, especially considering he threw it only one other time after the De Aza at-bat. Still, with his two-seam sinking fastball, his cutter and slow curve, Worley was able to keep the White Sox lineup from doing any further damage. The extra pitch may eventually be just a “show-me” pitch that is used sparingly. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Morneau.jpg In early July Justin Morneau had been plodding through a season in which he was completely lost at the plate against left-handed pitching. Even though his performance against right-handed pitchers was classic Morneausie, against the sinister his swing was basically a clusterbleep. His front side leaking so far open, he was left with little choice but to pull the ball. Left-handed opponents attacked this weakness by throwing more sliders which would run away from his swing zone. He flailed away helplessly as southpaws painted the outer-half of the plate and anything he did manage to put lumber on was typically bounced to the right side of the infield. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] By the end of June his average against lefties had sunk to below .100 and was the worst in baseball. In a little over a month however Morneau has doubled that average - .174 heading in to last night’s game – and, what’s more, his swing has looked 100 times better. Last night, the Twins’ Director of Baseball Communications, Dustin Morse, highlighted Morneau’s improvement against same-sided pitchers by tweeting this: Download attachment: Morse.JPG Now, the answer could be as simple as a small sample size fluctuation and that his suppressed batting average on balls in play was due to shoot up once the Baseball Gods felt like blessing the Canadian. However, just a few weeks before this streak started, Morneau made a noticeable adjustment to his approach at the plate. While this tweak lasted just a handful of games, the Twins first baseman emerged a different hitter. Morneau, who had a sizeable stride accompanied by a hearty swing, was hitting just .229/.301/.435 heading into the final June series against the Kansas City Royals when he made the changes. Instead of the leg lift, Morneau would lift only his heel, keeping his toes stationary which would likely increase his connectivity and, more importantly, help him refrain from opening up his front side. As I described back in the beginning of July: This mechanical adjustment did not last long – somewhere around five games – and Morneau returned to his previous swing on July 5. But this practice seems to have righted the ship and helped him stay on the ball better. In addition to the improved numbers against left-handed pitching, he hit .313/.360/.488 overall in 86 plate appearances (not including last night’s game against Boston). He had gone from striking out in 20% of his plate appearances pre-July 5 to striking out in just 10% of his plate appearances since then. In short, Morneau appears to be on the right path both against righties and lefties. Friday night, look for him continue this success against Boston’s rookie lefty Felix Doubront – who has limited left-handed hitters to a .229 average. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: span-diving.jpg On Thursday night, Denard Span played in his first game in 10 days since injuring his clavicle on a Jeff Keppinger line drive on August 12. Span’s absence triggered yet another debate amongst Twins fans and pundits alike who questioned the team’s inability to properly handle their disabled. Rather than place Span on the DL a day or two after the injury appeared to be more than simply a day-to-day situation and keep the dugout stocked with healthy bodies, the Twins allowed the situation to drag on for over a week – culminating in an MRI attempt that never happened because of Span’s claustrophobia. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Of course, Span is not the Twins’ first encounter with a prolonged injury this year either. Prior to Span’s ordeal, it was Trevor Plouffe who had the extended time off. On July 20, Plouffe bruised his thumb on his throwing hand and left the game against the Royals early. The prognosis at the time was that it was originally thought of as day-to-day. It took seven days before he was placed on the DL only to finally return on August 13. Before Plouffe it was Justin Morneau who, at the end of April, re-injured his surgically repaired wrist. Morneau missed three games in May in addition to five calendar days before the Twins ultimately made the move to put him on the DL. At some point, these missed games add up. Clearly, I’m not a doctor. I diagnose most injuries regardless of the severity with Vitamin I (Ibuprofen) and a few (dozen) Grain Belt Premiums. The Twins, on the other hand, have (presumably) a well-paid, well-educated medical staff that should, by most accounts, identify and set out a clear path of recovery. Yet, somehow, these injuries and ailments – no matter how seemingly minor – continue to drag out and leave the team short-handed for extended periods of time. Truthfully, I have no idea on how the internal decision process is made to DL or not to DL but it appears that the team puts the onus on the players on these ostensibly innocuous injuries. It harkens back to 1993’s The Program, in which James Caan’s character asked one of his football players if he was hurt or injured; the difference being, if he was hurt, he could still play. In Span, Plouffe and Morneau’s case, the players communicated to the medical and coaching staff that they were simply hurt and that they could play in no time. The response from each was “I’ll be fine in a day or two.” For instance, the Star Tribune’s LaVelle Neal wrote that the team was counting on Span to let them know if or when he’s able to suit back up: Like Span, Plouffe told reporters and coaches that he would expect to miss “a day” at that time. Ron Gardenhire told reporters after the game that “We've all done that as a hitter -- you get a deep bone bruise right in there and it's pretty painful. So we'll give him a day or two with a little ice and treatment, and he should be back in there." Similarly, after the decision was made to send Morneau to the disabled list, then acting manager Scott Ullger told reporters that “It’s up to him to let us know when he can play.” This has become a crappy policy. After two seasons it is obvious that the players cannot be counted on to do this kind of determination. They have machismo and often millions at stake. They certainly WANT to play, there’s no question there. To be fair, the players are the ones actually playing and feeling the pain so they should have an open dialogue with the coaching staff but, ultimately, should they be the influential factor when contemplating the well-being of the roster? Again, I’m not a doctor – if you needed the reminder. I am a baseball analyst who relies on statistics and data and I have little to no baseline to judge or rate the Twins organization’s methods against another. There is no Wins Above Replacement Level For Guys Your Just DL’ed found on Fangraphs.com. A measuring stick does not exist (it should and some enterprising researcher needs to take up the cause). What does seem obvious is that playing short-handed hinders the team to some degree. Now, whether or not summoning someone like Clete Thomas or Chris Parmelee would have changed the outcome is certainly debatable but it would seem that continuing down this path regularly puts a team in a deficit. Had this been a contending team, a few games lost because of the disabled list indecision could have cost them vital ground in the standings. The policy in the Twins clubhouse regarding injuries needs to be re-examined and return rehabilitated in 2013. Click here to view the article

Hitting coach Joe Vavra recently shared some ideas behind what was causing the drought at the plate with the Pioneer Press’s Tom Powers. Plenty of factors played into the team’s offensive ineptitude but for those who did make it to the plate, Vavra felt that the approach was fundamentally lacking: Despite some fans objections to the contrary, Joe Vavra comes off as a smart, intelligent and process-oriented hitting coach. I have personally never had the opportunity to meet with him however in interviews and articles about him, he comes off as someone who has a keen understanding of the art and science of hitting. After all, as stated in this column and in previous interviews, he has a history of checking data to assist in his techniques and teachings – and advanced viewpoint coming from a position that has historically been of the “see ball, hit ball, spit chew, little bingo, how now brown cow” ilk. In that particular piece, Vavra does not outright say what constitutes “struggling” or rather which metric he uses to gauge that, however, he cited batting average a number of times. Because pull-hitting often takes a toll on a player’s average, you can see why the Twins would want to discourage this practice. Using more of the field is an indication that a hitter is able to handle more pitches in more zones. For example, if a right-handed hitter gets too pull-happy and attempts to turn on a pitch on the outer-half, odds are they will be pulling something towards the shortstop rather than “going with the pitch” to right field. In theory, opposing teams will recognize this and attack the outer-half more which will incite a player to turn-over on the pitch more often and drag down his batting average. This more or less seems to be what Vavra is saying happened to the 2011 squad, particularly the young right-handed hitters. Given that the Twins cycled through a greater number of younger hitters through the lineup that hit from the right side (Trevor Plouffe, Luke Hughes, Drew Butera, Joe Benson, etc) Vavra’s theory makes sense. Not surprising, the data indicates that the right-handers turned on 29.9% of their balls in play – a sizeable jump from the 24.3% pull rate in 2010. As such, righties hit .237 as a group, their lowest in the past three seasons: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_hKDcxyuj2I/TzyTeNq-oVI/AAAAAAAAAT0/cYEjF4OJWXA/s1600/RHB_Pulling.jpg Now, the batted ball data shows the outcome but it clearly does not show intent. That is something that hitting coaches can detect and video can reveal a bit more on what a hitter was trying to do when being pitched away. While a near 30% pull rate is high, there may be more outer-half pitches that hitters attempted to pull but directed them towards center instead of right field. What data might show some of that is the precipitous drop in using the opposite field successfully over the past three years. The idea is that if a hitter is focused on going oppo, the result should be better: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NLvtY0KW4pI/TzyTkrDc0iI/AAAAAAAAAT8/_MP1V7hKNUw/s1600/RHB_Oppo.jpg As you can glean, the 2011 Twins were considerably less successful at going the opposite direction than their predecessors. If the 2011 lineup was indeed less focused on driving shots to right field, it is reflective in those splits. So, redirecting those players who may have grown too pull-happy like Trevor Plouffe or Danny Valencia back towards the big part of the field may help bolster their batting average but what of the power? As I’ve written about extensively here, Target Field plays more favorably for pull hitters. This offseason, Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit were added to the lineup and both hitters showed clear pull tendencies over their careers. In Willingham’s case, he moved to Oakland and grew increasingly pull-happy to combat the spacious park. Although he set a career high in home runs (29) that came at the expense of over 20 batting average points and a significant amount of on-base numbers. If the team wants the home runs added to the repertoire, they should encourage Willingham to keep the same approach he had as an Athletic. Not long ago, the Twins tinkered with Hardy’s approach at the plate, suggesting he was getting too pull-happy. Hardy had incorporated the opposite-field mentality to his approach which the Orioles hitting coach told him to forget. Not only did Hardy’s batting average remain at a high level after going back to being a pull hitter, he also jacked 30 home runs. Will Vavra allow Willingham and Doumit to retain their approaches? Of course it is up to the individual but it sounds as if Vavra had his way, it sounds like he would discourage the pair from this method. According to Tom Powers’ column, the Pioneer Press scribe posited the question if power hitters should try “to yank the ball” to which Vavra replied “I’d challenge them on that”. The reasoning behind Vavra’s contention was never clarified but I would speculate that it has to do with what amounts to a batting average drain. Clearly, talent certainly played a key factor in the degeneration of the batting average from the right-side for the Twins but the inexperience and the pull-heavy tendencies also contributed. The old adage “hit it where it’s pitched” applies. Still, pulling the ball is not as big of an enemy to the offense as some would think. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: marcum_shaun640_640.jpg The worst kept secret in baseball is that teams need an abundance of starting pitching. Like crack, you can never have enough. Also, pitching, like crack, can be an expensive endeavor – particularly when you need a lot of it. And this is exactly the position the Twins are in so said the team’s general manager, Terry Ryan, during his offseason apology tour. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] In a recent interview with Twins Daily’s John Bonnes, Ryan admitted that his financial resources may keep the team from chasing the Zack Greinke’s of the world (shocker), but the team will be scouring the market for top of the rotation help. (The interview’s entirety can be found the Offseason Handbook in which Ryan expands on this topic and many more.) If the team is looking to maximize the return on a smaller investment, one such arm Ryan should be zeroing in on in the free agent market is the 30-year-old Shaun Marcum. If you were looking just at the radar gun, you would likely be nonplussed at Marcum’s fastball. Indeed, his 87.2-mph fastball over his career would incite plenty to label him yet another soft-tossing pitcher. After all, he shares the same career fastball velocity as one flame-thrower Bruce Chen. Recognizing his weakness Marcum uses his fastball extremely sparingly. Dating back to 2007, outside of the knuckleballers, only Roy Halladay (33.8%) has used his fastball less frequently than Marcum (38.2%). Once he gets ahead in the count – which we has more often than not – hitters have a better odds of seeing Halley’s Comet than his fastball. And it is his plethora of off-speed and breaking pitches that makes him so impossible to make contact against. Again, since 2007, Marcum has registered the sixth-highest swinging strike rate in baseball behind such luminaries as Cole Hamels, Johan Santana, CC Sabathia, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Dempster and Max Scherzer. That’s right: He missed more bats than Justin Verlander. Now, this has not translated into a ton of strikeouts but it shows that he is consistently confounding opponents. What makes Marcum so effective in spite of the town ball-level velocity is his ability to keep the fastball away off the plate while mixing in a variety of pitches and speeds that make hitters’ heads’ spin. Take a look at this year’s heat map of his pitch location: Download attachment: Marcum.jpg To both sides, he served every down and away. The reason this is noteworthy is because this area is perhaps the most difficult for a hitter to square up and certainly one of the hardest areas to pull consistently. Furthermore, Marcum’s ability to change speeds to the mid-70s to 80 back to the upper 80s on almost any pitch keeps opponents from cheating on the outer-half. As we have seen at Target Field, it can reward hitters who can yank pitches into the right and left field stands thus having someone who keeps the ball away from those looking to do heavy damage is in the Twins’ best interest. In short, his ability to miss bats and keep hitters from pulling the ball with lethal intent would play very favorably as a potentially number two starter in Minnesota. So, what are the odds the Twins could end up with him? The Royals, Cubs and Blue Jays all may be landing places for Marcum. In fact, in an interview with a Toronto radio station, Marcum expressed interest in returning to the Blue Jays where he had been a member of the organization from when he was drafted in 2003 until being traded to the Brewers after the 2010 season. Marcum said that he would welcome a homecoming to his original team in part because of the coaching and training staff which he had a strong relationship. Presumably, Marcum’s past injury history (Tommy John in 2008) and recent flare up in Milwaukee this year (right elbow tenderness with required a trip to the 60-day DL) will likely drop his stock among all suitors. Even the Brewers, who have seen him up close and are just a year removed from a 200-inning season, have maintained radio silence with him and his agent. This probably does not bode well for his immediate financial future. As a result, his price range is likely going to fall towards more of a one-year plus incentives in order to rebuild his value while still in his early 30s (he’ll be 31 in December), at which point he can explore a longer, more lucrative deal on the market. The Twins have plenty of holes to fill and, sad to admit, a finite budget, therefore a one-year deal for a pitcher of Shaun Marcum’s caliber would be in Terry Ryan’s best interest. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Kubel.jpg Consider it phase two of Terry Ryan’s sinister plan, Getting The Band Back Together: According to 1500ESPN.com’s Darren Wolfson, the Twins have inked Jason Kubel to a minor league deal. In November Pioneer Press's Mike Berardino wrote that outfielder Jason Kubel, who was released by the Cleveland Indians earlier in the day, would be interested in a reunion with the Minnesota Twins. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] "Yeah, for sure,” Kubel said. “I loved it here. I really miss the guys. I had a great relationship with Gardy, Andy (pitching coach Rick Anderson), (Joe) Vavra — all the coaches and the few players I remember that are still there. I love the guys over there.” Kubel certainly loved the guys, but he had a different feeling towards the ballpark. When he departed to Arizona as a free agent, he reminisced about Target Field: "It's no secret that a lot of people didn't like Target Field to hit there," he said. "I just feel like here, I can use the whole field and still put up power numbers instead of trying to pull the ball in the air to get it out. I did get in trouble trying to do that too often, and it showed in the numbers." But he cannot blame Target Field for his 2013 woes. In his first year in Phoenix, Kubel thrived. He posted the second-best OPS of his career. He mashed 30 taters. He justified the first-half of his two-year, $15 million dollar contract. And then? Pfft. Nothing. What happened? One of Kubel's biggest issues in 2013 was his inability to handle fastballs. According to ESPN Stats & Info, in 2012 Kubel hit .298/.368/.616 with 20 home runs and a whopping .309 well-hit average. That dropped considerably in 2013 when he finished the year hitting .261/.315/.400 with just 3 home runs and a well-hit average of .171 off of fastballs. Download attachment: Kubel_strike-zone_2013.jpg (2012) Download attachment: Kubel_strike-zone_2012.jpg (2013) Opponents attacked the upper portion of the zone more in 2013 (37% versus 30% in 2012) and Kubel’s lack of bat speed resulted in far less contact and power output. While Kubel may be a bounce back candidate after his 2013 season, the Twins are not in need of a corner outfielder or designated hitter at this point. Oswaldo Arcia, in theory, can provide just as much production as the former Twin can. Nevertheless, the minor league agreement provides the Twins will some needed veteran depth without clogging the major league roster with additional corner outfielders and designated hitters. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: USATSI_7806089.jpg When the Minnesota Twins unloaded Denard Span and Ben Revere in one offseason, they envisioned Aaron Hicks being the bridge in center field to their super prospect, Byron Buxton. The torch, for the time being, was being passed along from Kirby to Torii to Denard to Aaron. “I would love to be the next in line,” he proclaimed in the Twins’ clubhouse on Opening Day last year before everything went awry. Perhaps in hindsight it was unfair of the Twins to lean on a kid fresh off a Double-A season and expect him to fill the integral role of leadoff hitter while [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]manning a vital up-the-middle position. Certainly on paper the idea appeared tantalizing, particularly in the batting order. With his plus speed, switch-hitting capabilities and the tendencies to draw walks in the minors, he had the pedigree of a top of the lineup guy. On the field, this theory quickly devolved when he was obviously overmatched and overwhelmed. This season, however, the Twins expect things to be different for the center fielder. “I think he has a lot less pressure on him than he did last year,” Twins assistant GM Rob Antony said after news that Houston had claimed his competition Alex Presley off the waiver wire. “I think everything went so well for him in the spring that when the [2013] season started, that he just expected for it all to continue and went it didn’t he went ‘uh-oh, what am I doing wrong, what can I do differently?’ I think he’s a little calmer and I don’t think he’s getting too wrapped up with everything.” Improving the approach Hicks said he spent a significant portion of the offseason and spring working on his offensive weaknesses from the left-side -- driving the ball the other way and focusing on a game plan. Last year, the latter issue involved constantly finding himself at the mercy of the pitcher rather than attacking the ball in hitter’s counts. When he was up in the count, Hicks hit a very good .295/.396/.659 versus right-handed pitching. On the other hand, he was a .124/.140/.188 when he was behind in the count. The biggest difference was that he was ahead in the count in just 54 plate appearances and behind in another 114. As far as the former goes, Hicks believes if you watched closely this spring, you have seen a change in his style. “Typically, in the minor leagues, I pulled a lot,” he said. “If you looked at my spray charts, sure, but this spring training has been everything to left.” Though he managed a handful of hits while slashing the ball to left field in 2013, it rarely came with a punch. Of the 47 balls he hit the other way, only two were considered well-hit by Inside Edge’s video scouts. This spring he has seen a few more balls ripped that direction, including tagging one against the St. Louis Cardinals in Jupiter, only to be thwarted in his efforts by a diving Stephen Piscotty. Hicks said this progress has been made with hand-bleeding amounts of front-toss work and trying to react to pitches on the outer-half of the zone -- a factor that will be crucial for success if right-handed pitchers implement the same strategy as they did last year. According to ESPN/trumedia’s stats, 56% of the total offerings Hicks saw in the left-handed batter’s box were on the outer third of the zone. As a switch-hitter, he says he has a different approach from each side. “This offseason the focus was on the left and now I’m starting to do both, gotta get both ready for the season,” Hicks said. “Right-handed I tend to swing more, lefty I’m more patient. I try to look for a pitch. I tend to have more of a plan because I’ve had so much more at bats from the left-side, where as right-handed I get 100 at bats a year so I kind of just come out ready to swing.” It is amazing, too, the difference in how southpaws approach him versus the righties. Last year, right-handed pitchers threw the ball in the zone 47% of the time while the left-handed counterparts breached the zone 55% of the time. Physically, he’s added weight. The good kind, not the kind you acquire by sitting around and eating Cheez-Its. After finishing the year under 200 pounds, Hicks bulked up and added 15 pounds of muscle which will hopefully translate into bigger power numbers. Making the routine and remote But Hicks is slated to play a position in which the emphasis is on the defense and not the offense. The Twins are betting he can cover ground or “go get it”, in Ron Gardenhire nomenclature. He had a penchant for making highlight reel-type plays but missed on too many balls he should have had. Last year, Inside Edge’s data available at Fangraphs.com shows that Hicks was very adept at make the difficult or “Remote” plays -- those a center fielder has a 1%-10% chance of making, such as robbing home runs, like he did to Carlos Gomez in Milwaukee. He converted on 66% of these types of plays, the highest rate among center fielders with a minimum of 600 innings. At the same time, he converted on just 98% of plays that were considered “Routine” -- 90%-100% chance of conversion -- the lowest mark in that category. Hicks said there was a learning curve coming into the league from his days in the single-tiered stadiums of the Eastern League and having millionaires launch rockets into the night sky. “The biggest difference is guys hit the ball harder and, in a way, it gives you more chances to rob a ball because guys hit the ball higher,” Hicks observed, explaining why he found it easy to make those difficult plays at the wall. “Gives me more opportunities to run underneath it and more opportunities to make more plays.” ‘Million dollar arm, ten cent head’ If you hang around the grizzled old-timers at a baseball diamond, those dugout lifers in the game, you may hear the phrase “million dollar arm, ten cent head.” This label does not pertain to Hicks’ intelligence, rather it might apply when he chooses to air out his arm, attempting to nail a lead runner at home or third, rather than play it safe and hit the cut-off man and keep the trailing runner from advancing into scoring position. Hicks has a great arm and he hasn’t been afraid to show it off this spring -- to mixed reviews. In the game where he went 4-for-4, he overshot his cutoff man which led to another Phillies’ run -- a valuable one considering the Twins lost that game 5-4. "The guy who hit the ball went to second and scored on another base hit. So there you have it -- the fifth run, and we end up losing the game by a run," Gardenhire said to reporters after the game. "Throw the ball down. He had no chance to throw the guy out at home, I don't care how strong his arm is. We hit the cutoff man, keep the man on first, who knows what happens?" Most people who have seen Hicks’ snap off a bullet from the outer reaches of the playing field will agree the man has an elite arm. In fact, he was hitting 90 on the gun as a pitcher prior to his draft and several teams were interested in him on the mound rather than as a position player. Online onlookers at Fangraphs.com have cast their scouting grades in the website’s Fan Scouting Reports and found that Hicks’ arm strength comes out at a 78 out of 100, the third best among center fielders last year. There were times the game was going too fast, he acknowledged, and leaning on his strength (his arm) was likely one way try to slow it down. Instead, sometimes it spiraled out of control. *** There are thousands upon thousands of players who have struggled in their introduction to the big leagues -- the aforementioned Torii Hunter being a recent example. The Twins are betting Hicks' approach and abilities have matured and that the game has come down to his level, as opposed to rushing past him, and that his sophomore season will put his career on the right path. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: diamond-indians.jpg One of the biggest surprises of the Twins season has to be the performance of starter Scott Diamond. Written off by many as just another “soft tossing pitcher” in the organization, Diamond has shown mastery of the strike zone and has been getting ground outs by the barrelful. This has led to a 10-5 record and a 2.91 ERA – the sixth best in the American League. While radar gun enthusiasts and strike out fanatics are not likely thrilled by his skill set, Diamond is proving that it is not necessary velocity that makes the pitcher. Let’s take a look at what has made him so successful this year. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] (1) Release Point/Plane Change Diamond’s over-the-top release point gives him a very high angle. Pitch F/X, which captures the first data of a pitcher’s pitch at 55 feet, shows that Diamond’s pitches are at approximately six-feet-four inches on average – which, by comparison, is slightly higher than the taller lefty teammate Tyler Robertson. Combine that with crossing the plate at the knees or lower regularly and you have a solid recipe for grounders. As 1500ESPN.com’s Phil Mackey pointed out recently in a great piece detailing Diamond’s outstanding game preparation, the majority of his misses are low. Mackey cites a stat that said just 6% of his entire offerings this season have missed the strike zone high. This downward trajectory ensures that he is changing planes and making it more difficult for hitters to do anything besides hit the top of the ball thereby inducing a high percentage of ground balls. Download attachment: Diamond_Curve_Choo1.JPG There’s more than just his ability to keep the ball down in the zone that has made him effective this year. His curveball, which may be his best pitch, may be the key behind elevating his fastball from pedestrian to impressive. (2) Noon-to-Six Curveball/Effective Velocity His curve is released at the same point as his fastball but, unlike other pitchers’ sweeping version, Diamond throws his with a 12-to-6 break (north-south movement versus the east-west type). Because the path of his curveball follows the same trajectory as his fastball before it dips – as opposed to many 11-to-4 curves which deviate off of the fastball’s path sooner - hitters will have a more difficult time deciphering between the two offerings. This is what has been one of the practices of the “Effective Velocity” teachings. Part of the Effective Velocity theory is that hitters have approximately 20 feet to decide what the pitch is as they are beginning their swing. The longer an off-speed pitch looks like a fastball or vice versa, the better the odds are the hitter would be fooled by the pitch. Because Diamond’s fastball and curveball share roughly the same plane for the first 20 feet, opponents are having troubles identifying which is which before it is too late. From his Pitch F/X chart you can see how the fastball (blue circles and red triangles) and the curveball (green squares) have little horizontal movement yet the curveball will have a quick drop: Download attachment: Diamond_PitchSelection.JPG Roughly eight miles an hour and several inches of drop separate the two pitches but the two complement each other well. And Diamond continually teases opponents with this breaking pitching which likely keeps opponents off of his fastball. By throwing his curve 30% of the time – the third highest rate among qualified starters – he likely disguises his 89 mile-per-hour fastball effectively. (3) Battler He also possesses a bulldog-like determination on the mound of not giving in to hitters. For starters, he rarely issues free passes or puts himself in drastically bad count situations. Baseball-Reference.com says he has only had 10 3-and-0 counts – the fewest among starters with 100 innings or more. When he does fall behind hitters he is able to navigate out of trouble. While most pitchers are cuffed around when they are behind in the count, according to his “Batters Ahead” split opponents are holding just a 760 OPS. That is more than 200 points better than the league average of 974. Will Diamond remain a winning pitcher? If he continues to have stellar defense and posts a 3.69 expected fielding independent number (xFIP) next year, there is certainly a chance he’ll put up very good stats and win a high portion of his games. Based on his repertoire, consistent peppering of the strike zone and studious nature of the game, there is little reason to think he cannot repeat next season with a similar xFIP. Still, on the flipside, his offense in 2012 has been extremely generous to him. In fact, his 7.40 runs of support per nine innings is the second highest amount of support among qualified starters. If that figure starts to slip in 2013 -- which it is almost certain to do – Diamond is surely due to come up with the short end of the stick. Even great pitchers are unable to manufacture wins without the aid of their hitters – after all, Bert Blyleven can tell you all about losing ball games 2 to 1 or 3 to 2. Click here to view the article

If you had not noticed, Rochester Red Wings hitting coach Tom Brunansky has been a Mr. Fix-It when it comes to the system’s hitters. He has worked well with the young players in the organization, helping get the most out of middling prospects as well as putting the finishing touches on fast-risers in the system. Brian Dozier, Darin Mastroianni and Ben Revere, among others, are all members of the Twins who have credited Brunansky with tinkering with their swings to favorable results over the past two years. When Dozier encountered Brunansky for the first time in New Britain, the former Twin helped the current Twins shortstop add a bit more power to his stroke. Thanks in part to Brunansky’s tutelage the middle infielder went from a high ground-ball hitter to one who hit a high percentage of line drives and more fly balls. This led to a few more extra base hits, including a career-high 22 doubles in 351 plate appearances with the Rock Cats, and put him on Ron Gardenhire’s radar. LaVelle Neal reported that Brunansky had approached Mastroianni about changing his swing in spring training. The speedy outfielder tried it out at that time but it did not take. Sent to New Britain out of the chute, when Mastroianni was promoted to Rochester he worked with Brunansky on incorporating the previous changes into his swing. Mastroianni’s production went off the charts in the International League as in 84 plate appearances the 27-year-old hit .346/.393/.423 and was called to Minnesota. Most notably was the change in the trajectory of his batted balls. Previously a hitter whose ground ball rate was upper 40%/lower 50%, Mastroianni was able to generate more lift and posted a ground ball rate below 40% for the first time in his career. Meanwhile, in Revere’s case, Brunansky attempted to reduce his hand movement. As Brunansky told Sloane Martin of the Rochester Baseball Observer: After performing well with the Twins’ AAA affiliate, Revere was recalled in mid-May. Since his return to Minnesota, he has gone 22-for-70 (.314) with a very impressive .429 slugging percentage thanks, in part, to being able to drive the ball a bit further – perhaps a direct result of him reducing his hand movement. Interestingly enough, Revere recently told the Star Tribune’s Sid Hartman that his success as of last was due to a video revelation which involved another aspect of his hands: So Revere’s success could be attributed to Brunansky, Revere’s own findings or maybe a little bit of both. Another one of Brunansky’s scholars, Chris Parmelee, will have the opportunity to show that, like Revere, the Red Wings hitting coach’s methods can reap dividends at the major league level. Following a month-and-a-half of offensive ineptitude with the Twins, Parmelee was returned to Brunansky with a simple task: Fix it. Opponents attacked Parmelee’s weak spots, exploiting a long swing by blowing him apart with fastballs on the outer-half of the plate and getting him to chase curveballs out of the zone. Having worked with Parmelee in 2011 while the hitting coach for New Britain, upon arrival to Rochester, Brunansky appeared confident that he could correct what was ailing Parmelee. According to Martin: Placed back under Brunansky’s guidance, Parmelee raked with Rochester. In 58 plate appearances, he hit .370/.500/.717 with four doubles and four home runs. What’s more is that after showing poor zone judgment with the Twins at the beginning of the year, Parmelee coaxed 12 walks (21% walk rate), a positive sign that not only is he stinging the ball well but also has the wherewithal to lay off those off the plate. As mentioned above, Parmelee’s swing elongated with the Twins this year. During one broadcast FSN analyst and former Twin Roy Smalley pointed out that Parmelee’s tendency to open up quickly caused his bat speed to drag thus giving him fits when being pitched away. Clearly, this needed some attention. One adjustment that we can see Parmelee and Brunansky feature was a reduction in Parmelee’s open stance. By bringing his front leg closer to the plate, Parmelee’s first movement towards the plate with his weight does not have to be as significant as it once was and, in theory, he will not have to open up his hips as quickly to attempt to “catch up” during his swing – the part of his swing which Smalley pointed out was actually slowing his bat down. In short, the new stance should improve his coverage by keeping him from needing to commit early. Download attachment: Parmelee_ST.jpg Download attachment: Parmelee_AAA.jpg It is hard to argue against Parmelee’s results but if there is one thing to be cautious over it is that his line drive rate evaporated while in Rochester. At the major league level, Parmelee had a line drive rate close to 20% but he exchanged those ropes for flies in Rochester, lining only 13% of his total balls put into play. It seems that fly balls have an easier time sneaking out of single-tiered stadiums over ones like Target Field. Admittedly, for every Brunansky success story like Dozier, Revere and potentially Parmelee, there are guys like Joe Benson, Rene Tosoni and Danny Valencia who seem to head in the opposite direction. This reminds us of the baseball truism: you will have many more misses than you do hits. Click here to view the article

The befuddlement continues as Hendriks’ winless streak now reaches 17 starts and counting. Dating back to beginning of 2011, Hendriks has put up two stellar seasons in the minor leagues, posting a 2.86 ERA with a 193/49 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 245.2 innings split between New Britain and Rochester. In 2011, the Twins named him their Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Based on those figures and accolades, expectations were high for him. Naturally, that has not quite panned out so far at the major league level. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Heading into last night’s game righties were hitting .381/.426/.702 in 143 plate appearances. That is a remarkable batting line considering the rest of the league’s right-handed pitchers have subdued their same-sided brethren to the tune of .252/.308/.398. The magnitude of those power numbers is unprecedented. Think about that: right-handed opponents’ slugging percentage (.702) off Hendriks is just five points lower than the league’s overall OPS (.707) during righty-on-righty action. What makes this case even more curious is that in the minors the past two seasons Hendriks handled righties just fine. According to MinorLeagueCentral.com’s splits, Hendriks limited right-handers to a .251/.288/.368 line over 518 match-ups since 2011. How is it that he managed to sidestep right-handers in AAA easy-peasy but is obliterated once he arrives to the majors? One explanation as to why Hendriks may have an easier time retiring lefties over righties may have to do with his unique delivery and the challenges it presents. Hendriks has a closed delivery - which is that his front foot lands more towards the third base side and he throws across his body. When facing left-handed batters, he will pepper the outer-half of the strike zone and (far too often this season) just off the plate to entice those hitters to swing at pitches away. Meanwhile, if he wants to pitch right-handers away (or lefties inside for that matter) he must throw across his entire body to reach the far side of the plate: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Hendriks_Landing.png Because he is throwing across his body and trying to hit the pitcher’s glove side of the zone, he has seen his command wane when trying to hit the far side of the plate. In last night’s start against the Kansas City Royals, catcher Drew Butera would frequently set up on the pitcher’s glove side of the plate and present a target. The majority of those offerings did not wind up at the intended destination. For example, in their fifth inning showdown, with two strikes on him, Butera scheduled a fastball down and in on the left-handed hitting Alex Gordon. Rather than hitting this spot, his fastball went up and away. Fortunately Gordon was unable to hold up for strike three. When it comes to right-handed hitters, Hendriks’ intentions appear to be to pepper the outer-half of their zone similar to lefties. Only the above scenario plays out leaving his pitches in a far too favorable of a spot for right-handed hitters: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Hendriks_fastballrighties.jpg While his fastball has been hit pretty hard overall (.362/.412/.553) it is his slider, his most used secondary pitch, that has been bombed back to the Stone Age (.333/.349/.857). Seven of his 12 home runs allowed have come on this pitch (there is plenty of visual evidence of that). This should be his swing-and-miss pitch and yet it is getting destroyed – and part of that is related to his inability to pitch inside effectively. Whether it is game-planned or not, Hendriks has simply not shown opponents that he will throw the ball inside regularly – particularly to righties. For Hendriks, who is a fastball/slider pitcher to righties, this should be a critical element of his game. If he demonstrates that he is able to place his fastball on the inner-half, hitters will be forced to open their hips to respect that pitch which should enhance his slider that runs away from right-handers. Last year, in addressing this very subject, former major league pitcher Ron Darling said “That’s what gets a hitter to speed up his thought process. When he’s thinking ‘quick,’ that’s when you can get him out away. And, more important for a pitcher, it enables you to get away with the occasional mistake away because you’ve disrupted his timing just enough.” Hendriks has made plenty of mistakes away to righties this year but because he is not locating inside, right-handed hitters do not have to respect that portion of the zone and wind up leaning over the plate. As Terry Ryan insinuated after yesterday’s ballgame, Hendriks still have a lot to prove before he is considered a part of the 2013 rotation. Pitching inside effectively may be a part of that. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: wlaters.jpg The Minnesota Twins announce today that they have send pitchers Samuel Deduno and P.J. Walters to AAA, leaving 29 players on the active roster. A tweaked groin during his last start in the World Baseball Classic derailed Deduno’s chances of making the rotation to open the season.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] He had pitched extremely well in the international competition, allowing just one earned run in 13 innings while striking out 17 and walked just five. Had it not have been for the injury, Deduno would likely have been a member of the rotation. Walters, meanwhile, had his name in the conversation this spring by not allowing many runs. However, he walked eight batters in 13 innings and, in his most recent outing against the Blue Jays, Walters was smacked around a bit. These two moves clear the path for pitchers Cole Devries and Liam Hendriks to join the rotation, at least while Scott Diamond recovers from his offseason elbow injury. With the roster set at 29, the remaining positional race to focus on will be the last two spot in the bullpen which should come down to Tyler Robertson, Josh Roenicke and Alex Burnett. Click here to view the article

On International Signing Day, the Twins locked in Dominican shortstop Amaurys Minier for $1.4 million - leaving them with approximately $1.5 million to divvy up among any other international signings. Download attachment: Amuarys-Minier.jpg According to Baseball America, the six-foot-two Minier ranked 12th among available prospects and was the fourth-best rated shortstop prospect. The switch-hitting Minier has a decent sized frame including a stout lower-half making many evaluators believe that he will eventually move from his original position to third base. Here's what the scouting report on him from the Dominican Prospect League has to say:[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Twins Daily members have found additional information on Minier. You can find their contributions and comments here. Click here to view the article

ESPN1500's Phil Mackey details the Twins perspective in what has become 'going-the-other-way' gate. In terms of J.J. Hardy, according to hitting coach Joe Vavra, the Twins were trying to balance out the hitter who was completely lost at the plate. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Hardy was a mess at the plate in Milwaukee the year before the Twins acquired him. The Brewers made attempts to adjust his swing, even sending him down to AAA Nashville to correct what they perceived was a detrimental "arm bar". Shortly after the Twins traded for him, I had the chance to sit down with assistant GM Rob Antony, who said on Hardy: So the Twins were not alone on thinking Hardy needed some adjustments. The Brewers were also guilty of trying to change things up which likely made Hardy more open to advice from people like Rod Carew. Good or bad, Minnesota simply went about it by trying to get him to hit the 'Twins way' rather than re-connecting him to his previous strengths like Baltimore did. Mackey also addressed perhaps Patient Zero of the 'going-the-other-way' approach in David Ortiz. Ortiz famously told the Boston Globe that: On with 1500 recently, former manager Tom Kelly said of the Ortiz situation: As Mackey so appropriately points out, Ortiz has developed into a damn good opposite field hitter with Boston, holding a .408 wOBA when going the other way dating back to 2003. Download attachment: DavidOrtiz.jpg Feel free to Comment here. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Willingham.jpg The Minnesota Twins announce today they have officially reinstated outfielder Josh Willingham and have placed catcher Ryan Doumit on the seven-day disabled list. Willingham, who was hitting a career low of .224/.356/.398 in 298 plate appearances when he opted to have his knee scoped on July 3, had been rehabbing in Rochester. In three games, he amassed eleven plate appearances and just one hit. That one hit, however, was a prodigious home run in Durham that cleared the famous bull in left field (the one which if a batter hits on the fly, wins a free steak). Doumit, meanwhile, had left Wednesday night’s game in Kansas City with concussion-like symptoms which stemmed from a foul tip he took to the mask while catching against the Astros. On the flight to Kansas City, Doumit felt nauseous and then later on during the game on Wednesday where he was lifted for Chris Herrmann. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Pelf.jpg Mike Pelfrey, or “the Big Pelf’ as he is called, towers at six feet, seven inches tall. Because of his substantial stature, it is likely that when Pelfrey starts saying that he will be ready to pitch by April this year, there is nary a person around to tell him otherwise. Even the Minnesota Twins figure that Pelfrey, who had Tommy John surgery in May 2012, will be ready by the opener, less than a year after the procedure. “If the season started tomorrow, I would have worked up to be ready at this point,” Pelfrey told MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger. “Realistically, after 7 ½ months, I threw 90 pitches to hitters, so I could pitch [now]. They told me the other day, ‘No restrictions. You’re on the schedule with everybody else.’ That’s what I wanted.” He has reportedly thrown 40 mound sessions since the surgery and has zero setbacks thus far. There is no question that he is doing everything possible to be ready by April 1. An interesting comparison to Pelfrey’s development will be to monitor how the Chicago Cubs prepare for former Twin Scott Baker’s return from the same injury. When Baker was signed the past November, the Cubs raved about his progress. They were teeming with optimism that Baker would be a key component of the team’s success right away, mostly based on his rehabilitation. “There are no certainties with rehabs, but we spent quite a lot of time on the medical (evaluation) and (looking into) his rehab,” said Chicago team president Theo Epstein. “It was described by our medical staff as an ideal Tommy John’s rehab, so far. Knock on wood. Everything has gone perfectly so far. He’s really attacked it in an ideal manner.” Fast forward to yesterday and Chicago’s field staff communicated a different message. Manager Dale Sveum said that the team was planning on “babying” him through spring training and that Baker had an “above-average” chance of missing the start of the regular season. What does Scott Baker’s timeline have to do with Mike Pelfrey? Baker had his Tommy John surgery almost two week prior to Pelfrey. Like Pelfrey, Baker’s rehab was thought to be going exceptionally well. He was throwing off of flat ground by August 8 and was throwing from more than 120 feet in September. In November, following his signing, the Cubs officials expressed adulation of his progress. During the time Baker began throwing again last August, Pelfrey was in Wichita where he played college ball. There, he helped coach an 18-year-old local team who was heading to a national tournament. Pelfrey took the opportunity to tell reporters that the medical staff and Mets’ organization had advised him to shoot for a May 2012 return based on the 12-month timeline post-surgery, but his own personal goal would be to be ready by opening day. By the middle of August last year, reports emerged that Pelfrey would be throwing on flat ground “soon.” Already he was few weeks behind Baker’s timeline but it appeared to be slipping further off target. When the Twins signed him in December, Pelfrey told reporters that he was confident that he would be 100% by opening day. "I'm on track for Jan. 15. So everything is going well," Pelfrey told ESPN.com’s Adam Rubin. "Tim Hudson came back in seven months (from Tommy John surgery)…I'll definitely be ready when spring training rolls around." True, Hudson came back quickly, but his actual recovery time was a bit longer than what Pelfrey relayed to the press. While he did return to pitch in the minors for a brief spell 10 months after his 2008 Tommy John surgery day, it wasn’t until 12 months after his surgery date that Hudson was throwing in the majors again – and even that was September work with the off-season ahead of him to rest. Essentially, Hudson jumped into the marathon near the end of the finish line whereas Pelfrey is expecting to run up to the starting line of the race and toss 180-plus innings. Locally, fans will remember Joe Nathan’s slow return to form in 2011. Nathan received the gift of a new UCL in March 2010 and busted his butt to get back on the hill by the start of the 2011 season. Nathan said all the right things, just like Pelfrey: I don’t want to be babied, I feel great, etc. After a clean spring training, Nathan was brought to Minnesota in what turned out to be a premature decision. It took the Twins nearly two months of the season, three home runs, two blown saves and a 7.63 ERA, to realize that Nathan was not ready. He was sent to Rochester to break up some scar tissue and came back effective for the second-half of the season. This week, Baker reportedly threw 40 pitches at 70 percent effort in response to the Cubs’ babying program. Meanwhile, early dispatches from Fort Myers suggest the new Twin one-upped the former Twin and has overtaken him in the race for the return. In his first bullpen session of the year, Pelfrey threw 50 pitches. There are plenty of reasons why Pelfrey may actually comeback quicker than expected. His size suggests that he can take pressure off his arm. His relatively low injury history may mean he is less injury prone in general. He may have X-Men DNA and heal freakishly fast like Adrian Peterson. This is to say, every individual repairs themselves differently and at different intervals. Still, research tells us that the time to return to form from Tommy John surgery is 12-to-18 months. Hard work and great genes may help Pelfrey target May – closer to the one-year anniversary of his new elbow – but anything earlier than that could be risking a setback (like Joe Nathan). The Twins may be supportive to the public of Pelfrey’s return but, at the same time, gathering insurance quietly such as signing left-hander Rafael Perez, someone assistant GM Rob Antony believes can be stretched out into a starter, to a minor league contract. Perez -- along with Rich Harden and in-house candidates like Liam Hendriks, Cole DeVries and Sam Deduno -- may be the safety net the front office is preparing in the event Pelfrey is not ready by April. At his age and his relatively low injury-risk in general, Mike Pelfrey is almost certain to rebound. Never say never but, if history has any indication, the likelihood of him pitching effectively in April appears low. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: jonathan-sanchez-royals-e1342536105140.jpg So the Kansas City Royals made one of the most lopsided trades when the acquired Jonathan Sanchez for Melky Cabrera since the natives swapped Manhattan Island to the Dutch for about 25 bucks. After a rebound season in KC, Cabrera is fully rejuvenated in the Bay Area, hitting .353/.391/.514 with 8 home runs for the Giants. Meanwhile, in 12 starts, Sanchez completely soiled the bed so badly that the Royals were recently forced to designate him for assignment. There was plenty of reason for the Royals to take a chance on the 29-year-old left-hander. According to his expected fielding independent figures, his 4.10 mark from 2008 to 2011 tied him with rotation-mate Matt Cain and put him ahead of such higher priced free agents as Edwin Jackson. So for the nominal sum of $5.6 million, the Royals received a veteran starter for Cabrera who, like Sanchez, was also in his final year of arbitration. On paper it made all the sense in the world. Of course, Sanchez’s glaring weakness, command, reared its ugly head once he moved to the American League. Considering his walk rate of 12.2% was the highest among those with a minimum of 500 innings pitched from 2008 to 2011, this should not come as a complete surprise. While his control waned in 2011 with San Francisco, the wheels fell completely off in 2012. Last year, Sanchez threw fewer pitches in the strike zone (45%) but was able to get opponents to chase after stuff off the plate (27%) and miss on those pitches at a decent rate (59%). This year, however, he threw the same amount of pitches in the zone (45%) but was unable to entice any takers on the out of zone ones (21% - the lowest among qualified starters in 2012) and those who did, hit the ball a high amount (69%). Ergo, Sanchez’s swinging strike rate declined from the above average 10% to the below average 7% in 2012. Frustrated with his tendency to hand out free passes carte blanche, the Royals made the decision to waive him. This gives teams the option to claim him then either work out a deal with Kansas City for a potential trade or assume the remainder of his $5.6 million prorated the rest of the year. Of course, if everyone passes – and because of the results of his last four starts (17 IP, 27 hits, 23 earned runs and a 11/16 K/BB ratio), it is entirely possible – anyone could pick him up for an audition at the league minimum. If that scenario plays out, should the Twins consider grabbing the left-hander? The Twins have done great work turning around their own control-deficient lefty in Francisco Liriano. Like Sanchez, Liriano struggled against his mechanics which led to a high walk rate as well (10% from 2008 to 2011). This current season was one of Liriano’s worst but, in season, the team saw him re-establish his control and post a 67-to-25 strikeouts-to-walks ratio in 57.1 innings. The stage is set for the organization to trade Liriano. Despite his stellar performance as of late, his impending free agency and high cost of retaining him (over $12 million for 2013), the heightened interest in him by other teams only stands to benefit the Twins and the front office is bound to pounce on that. Still, Liriano’s departure would leave Minnesota with yet another hole to fill within the rotation – now and in the future. That’s where Sanchez would come in. If he’s available for the minimum – similar to the way the Padres nabbed Jason Marquis after the Twins kicked him to the curb – the Twins may have the opportunity to tinker with Sanchez for a handful of starts and see if they can redirect him back to his form he showed with the Giants. After all, from 2008 to 2011 Sanchez had one of the best swing-and-miss rates among left-handers (10.4%) leading to the second-best strikeout rate among southpaws (24%). And, at 29, he’s still in what should be the prime of his career. If his decline is not injury-related, he could be resurrected with the proper instruction. Sanchez’s mechanics, as mentioned above, have been a bit chaotic at times. Occasionally he’ll wrap his leg during his wind-up and other times he’ll fail to pick up his target before throwing. These are certainly imperfections that teams would probably like to correct. However, Sanchez does not seem to be receptive to the suggestions. When pressed by the Royals’ media on the possible of adjusting his mechanics, Sanchez balked. “I don’t want to change anything,” he told reporters at the end of June, “If I try to change things, I’ll end up a real mess. I just have to trust that it will work out.” That’s not the talk of someone entirely open to doing everything possible to turn things around. Then again, being released might be just that type of wake up call to make a pitcher amiable to making adjustments. If the Twins grab him, he may wind up being the stubborn type who is not willing to listen or try new methods, even if that means a one-way ticket out of baseball. The Twins have 10 days to contemplate and examine whether or not Sanchez is repairable (perhaps less if they want to grab him on waivers and work out a trade). Based on his past track record, there is certainly a reason to spend the extra time on this decision. If he proves teachable and makes progress, consider bringing him back for one of the vacancies for 2013. If not, send him packing. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: BullpenCar.jpg If you were going to create a list of the Twins' offseason needs, you would likely write in big, bold letters STARTING PITCHING and underline it twice and put some exclamation points next to it for safe measure. Clearly this area of the team put the Twins in significant default night after night. Shackled to the American League's worst earned run average (5.40), the focal point of the front office will be to beg,borrow and steal anything they can that can help deflate that unsightly statistic and give the team an opportunity to win games in 2013. For the most part, this means throwing whatever free cash at a consistent starter or two and potentially trading away a key member of the team in order to acquire more. While the starting pitching problem was so big it could be seen from space, perhaps somewhat surprising is what the Twins viewed as their second biggest need is. During an interview with TwinsDaily.com's John Bonnes, Twins general manager Terry Ryan told the incredulous Bonnes that finding more relief pitching was next in line. This is interesting for several reasons. Whereas the starting rotation was obviously downright horrendous, the Twins bullpen actually fared well. A pessimist might say that the relief staff's success may be due to the fact that by the time Ron Gardenhire dipped into his 'pen, the opposing team was too tuckered out from all the home run-hitting and base-circling to put forth any real effort. An optimist, on the other hand, would point out that guys like Glen Perkins, Jared Burton and Brian Duensing formed a solid core of late innings options. And,given that those three members will be back in 2013, there would seem to be fewer vital roles to fill in the bullpen which helps redirect the resources back to the starting pitching. Here's another thing: The cost of relief pitching could get scary expensive. Early this week, the Dodgers made a somewhat surprising move when they extended right-handed reliever Brandon League with a three-year, $22.5 million deal, giving him short of $8 million per year. The hard-throwing 31-year-old comes equipped with the “proven closer”label which may help explain some of the need to pay out that much, but his walk rate has fluctuated that it may be hard to sit still with him on the mound in a close game. While that may seem like a steep price, there may be some logic behind why League received $7.5 million per year. In a candid interview,Cleveland Indians team president and former general manager Mark Sharpiro told Fox Sport Ohio's Pat McManamon that, based on growing revenue streams, the cost of purchasing one “win” on the free agent market has increased from $8 million just a few years ago to $9 million this year. Per the interview: So,applying this logic to League's contract, we find that over the last three seasons he has accumulated 2.5 wins above replacement which averages out to 0.8 wins above replacement per year. If a team were to purchase that on an open market, that would cost $7.2 million – just shy of the average annual value of League's actual contract of$7.5 million. Provided League performs at or better than his last three seasons, the contract may actually wind up right on the money and not nearly as insane as the initial reactions. Then again, if League under-performs or gets injured, the contract could blow up in their face. Needless to say, most teams have to feel confident in their projections in order to dish out $9 million per win on the free agent market. That,or have Scrooge McDuck-type of money. Stupidly rich teams like the Dodgers have the luxury of committing that volume of money to a set-up man/closer and walking away financially unscathed if something goes wrong. Not every team in baseball will be looking to pay the going rate of a relief pitcher. The Twins will need to be smart with their investments and, given their track record of eschewing long-term contracts to free agents and avoiding marquee ones, there are no indications that they would chase any free agent down that rabbit hole. Outside of the top relief arms who can anticipate multi-year contracts, there are several players who may be acquired for fewer than three years.There is Kyle Farnsworth who pitched well as Tampa Bay's closer but elbow soreness truncated his 2012 season. Likewise, Jason Frasor also battled an elbow injury but struck out 53 in 43.2 innings thanks to a dirty slider. Mark Lowe, a member of the Rangers and Mariners bullpen, can bring some heat and miss bats but a non-arm related injury (intercoastal) sidetracked this past season. Those are just three of the bargain rate right-handed arms that could be available for the Twins. Heck, if bridges aren't burnt, Pat Neshek, who threw frisbee after frisbee in Oakland, seems to have rediscovered his command and would be a solid option for a season. These kind of arms may give you the same wins above replacement value but will not likely require the $9 million pay out. While the more statistically inclined organizations like the Indians may run numbers on everyone until their word processors explode, the Twins have proven quite adept at nabbing arms who require a bit more scouting acumen over the stats. Well, that, and the sheer numbers game. The Twins philosophy when it comes to relief pitching appears to stem from Branch Rickey's farm system mantra: From quantity comes quality. Last year the Twins signed a bushel of low cost minor league relief arms including Jared Burton, Jason Bulger, Luis Perdomo, Casey Fein and Joel Zumaya. Of the five, Burton emerged as a legitimate hurler while Fein threw well in the final two months of the season. Expect Terry Ryan and the Twins to be very active in the reliever market,just don't anticipate them to pay the going rate. After all, there are bigger fish to fry. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Ryan.jpg With the fourth overall pick waiting for them on Thursday night, the Minnesota Twins are poised to choose from one of several high profile picks. Rich with talent in the lower levels of the farm system, the organization has another chance at the fourth overall pick to backfill the minors with another highly-skilled player and continue to construct a solid future. Among the experts’ predictions for what could be available for the Twins at number four pick include pitchers Mark Appel, Jonathan Gray and Kohl Stewart as well as infielder/outfielder Kris Bryant. Of course, simply having a high pick does not ensure can’t miss talent. Equipped with a scouting background which dates back to 1980 with the New York Mets, Twins general manager Terry Ryan knows this time of year well. As a general manager, he is aware of the effects missed opportunities in the draft can have on team-building. After all, the mid-1990s picks provided very little return in later years, one reason for the team’s late decade decline. Not long ago, Ryan took the time to answer a few of our questions regarding the scouting process and his role in the identification of the upcoming fourth overall pick in the amateur draft. Terry Ryan on understanding the limitations of the capacity of the general manager in scouting draft pick: “Over the years I’ve realized that the less you do that, the more dangerous you are. If you are involved in that daily, you can slot guys very easily and put ‘em where they belong. If you just dabble in that thing …it’s not a good thing. I learned that when I became one of those special assignment guys. You shouldn’t get too wrapped up in the good days/bad days but you certainly don’t have a good flavor for what’s nationwide. We got plenty of people out there and if they want me to see a guy I probably will. But I don’t see it as a necessity as a General Manager to see them.” Ryan on letting his scouting staff do their jobs: “If I go see a guy and we got seven guys that are all over this guy and I go in and I don’t like him, what am I going to do? Overrule seven other guys? I don’t see it as a necessity to see the guys but if they want me to, I will.” Ryan on the difficulty of projecting Byron Buxton, who played a low-level of competition in Georgia: “Not at all. Especially a guy like [buxton] because there is no doubt he can throw – in fact, I saw him pitch, which wasn’t exactly what I had in mind – but you know he can run and you know he has range, ‘cause he’ll show you that when he goes to get a ball. The other things when you see a guy in a situation like Buxton in southern rural Georgia, I was fortunate enough to see him play against a good ballclub from Atlanta and that was a plus. Regardless of the competition, we’re still looking at skills and tools and body and competitiveness and attention and urgency. All that stuff.” Ryan on cross-checkers and seeing guys: “Now days players get seen so much more than we use to be able to back in the 1980’s. In Chicago, for instance, or Minnesota you might see a high school guy one game you got to make a decision. If you are a cross-checker – I’m not talking about an area guy – if you are a cross-checker and you get one look at a guy – and you’re probably fortunate – you make a decision, you put a number on him and then you move on to the next guy. That’s what cross-checkers are paid to do and it is a difficult job but it can be done.” Click here to view the article

In spring training last year, New York Mets manager Terry Collins said that second base has become “an enormous offensive position. Some of the guys that have been playing there have been putting up huge numbers at second. It’s become an offensive position, so to me that’s a big piece of the puzzle.” [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] In the American League, this has become exceedingly true. Players like Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler and Robinson Cano have packed a wallop for their respective teams. The Twins meanwhile have fielded a group of players last year at second who posted a 610 OPS, well below the league’s average of 721. Clearly, the Twins are in need of some offensive contribution from the evolving position. Perhaps the team has recognized the way the trend is leaning as a reason why they moved prospect Eddie Rosario and his potent bat into the keystone position. But, while that may play out well in the long run, here in the present, the Twins need some stick. Recently, Twins Daily’s Nick Nelson continued his Position Analysis series by tackling the team’s second base spot, naming Alexi Casilla as the likely starter. In short, Nelson pointing out that Casilla has both the talent but at the same time the lack of consistency to hold down the job. Wrote Nelson: On both accounts, Nelson is spot on. Casilla’s track record in the minor leagues is fairly impressive. In a little under 2,000 plate appearances, the switch-hitting middle infielder posted a very good .296/.370/.371 batting line. While in the farm system, he demonstrated a strong strike zone recognition (walking in nine percent of his plate appearances) and an equally outstanding contact rate (striking out just 11 percent of his plate appearances). He lacked the power to be fawned over by prospect farmers but he contributed with his speed when possible, swiping 164 bags at a 75% success clip. On the other hand, when at the major league level, Casilla has shown just flashes of that talent – if only in small and disappointing doses. Early on, his position was secured in Ron Gardenhire’s doghouse as Casilla failed to show the stability in the field that has become so instilled as “the Twins way.” Handed the second base job in 2009, he went out and promptly hit .202/.280/.259 and pushed the team into starting Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto over him. Still, for all his faults, the Twins have hung on to him only to witness small bursts of his promising talent. For instance, in 2010, limited to just 69 games, he hit .276/.331/.395 and avoided the chopping block for one more season. When he was off to a horrendous start in 2011, hitting .167/.227/.200 through the first twenty games, it was widely believed that he had probably earned his way out of the organization and needed a change of scenery. Instead, Casilla made some mechanical adjustments and rebounded to the tune of .281/.344/.408 over his next 74 games before a hamstring injury knocked him out for the year. Download attachment: alexi-casilla-twins.jpg Considering the rollercoaster that has Casilla’s career, it’s hard to peg him down for 2012. While the rest of the Twins Daily community isn’t sold on his skill I (for some reason) remain optimistic that we are going to see a much improved Casilla this coming year. While never being one to rely on off-season league and spring training stats for any indication of future performance, Casilla has been impressive in both nevertheless. In his Dominican League stint, he produced a .336 batting average – which was the second-highest in the league – in addition to a .419 on-base percentage. Yes, the counterargument to this is that the island league is littered with wash-out major leaguers and clinging-to-life minor leaguers but it is reassuring that Casilla has managed to carry the adjustments he made in 2011 into the off-season. Likewise, Casilla’s current .438 spring average in the Grapefruit League in 17 plate appearances is a continuation of his winter league performance. And, yes, much like the winter league stats, the numbers posted in Florida mean little – but it is leaps and bounds better than his two prior spring performances in which in hit .200 (10-for-50) in 2011 and .135 (7-for-53) in 2010. Admittedly, in terms of optimism, that’s not a strong foundation to build a projection on. I’d rather be able to compare a high line drive rate and a suppressed batting average on balls in play from the previous season, similar to Danny Valencia’s 2011, in an effort to push positivity – something more concrete and substantial than basing it on that he has done well when it has not mattered. However, if we are looking for a sign or indication that Casilla is ready to marry his potential to his actual performance, this is a step in the right direction. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: aaron-hick.jpg As Seth Stohs mentioned yesterday, while the rest of us at Twins Daily were all stark raving mad about Kyle Gibson’s performance in the Arizona Fall League, another Twins prospect was making noise even further south. Outfielder Aaron Hicks, who is playing winthttp://apps.startribune.com/blogs/fckeditor/editor/images/spacer.gifer ball in Venezuela, is off to a fast start this offseason, matching the expectation he set from his in-season performance at New Britain. Of course, not long ago, Hicks was in danger of falling off the “top prospect” radar although. Heading into the 2011 season, Baseball America dropped him from 19TH to 45TH despite a terrific first full season at the low-A level in Beloit. Then, as if Baseball America’s rankings had influence, Hicks lost some power and over 30 points in the batting average at Ft Myers the following year. The criticism on Hicks’s approach is that he could be too passive at times. Hicks boasts a high strikeout rate and a significant portion of those (39%) in 2011 were of the caught-looking variety, an indication that he was not aggressive enough with two strikes on him. Of course, the other side of the coin is that it has led to a 14% career minor league walk rate – a solid pillar supporting his .379 on-base percentage. While walks are en vogue with OBP-ers, there are those in the system who would like to see him use his six-foot-two athletic frame to transfer some power into the ball. His 2010 season at Beloit had him smacking eight home runs but that total dwindled down to five after his foray with the Miracle in Fort Myers. Part of the reason for the drop off simply had to do with the offensive difficulty of the Florida State League. As the Star Tribune’s Phil Miller explained this year, hitting is dern tough way down south: When he transitioned from high-A ball in the Florida State League to an even more polished level of competition of the double-A Eastern League, rather than being buried by the tougher pitching Hicks elevated his game. His matriculation to double-A ball could have also been a hindrance - given the significant leap in talent - but Hicks did not allow it. He hit a healthy .286/.384/.460 with 13 home runs. Where did this production come from? Was it simply a course correction after leaving the Florida State League or did Hicks make adjustments elsewhere? Being a switch-hitter, Hicks has had two sides of the plate in which to polish his mechanics and both have undergone some interesting transformations since 2011. Hicks from the right: Download attachment: hicks-swing-1.jpg While the angles and the graininess of the 2012 minor league camera shot do not provide the highest quality to judge these two stances on, there are some things that you can derive without having the same shot side-by-side. The first is where his hands are set pre-swing. While he has a similar hold, in these two pictures you can see that his elbows/hands are lower during his time with the Miracle (left) then they were with the Rock Cats (right). This may sound like a minute detail but elevated hands, in theory, create more leverage by engaging the top hand. For a line drive/ground ball hitter, this equates to harder hit balls, perhaps as easily identifiable as his spike in isolated power (from .124 in 2011 to .173 in 2012) and a big jump in batting average on balls in play (from .308 to .346). The second difference between 2011 Hicks and 2012 Hicks is the lowered stance with the deeper knee bend. This compacted stance figures to generate more power from his hips and lower half. In addition to the higher hand set this, according to minorleaguecentral.com, has lead to a higher fly ball rate from the right-side (from 29% in 2011 to 39% in 2012) and more home runs (from 3 to 7). Hicks from the left: Download attachment: hicks-swing-2.jpg The same disclaimer from above applies to this one as well: the angle and the graininess distort some perception and do not provide a crystal clear view to compare fully. As opposed to the shots above, these two images are of Hicks striding from the left-hand side. The first thing that stands out is where his hands are had at the loaded position. In the (left), his hands are lower and, judging by the angle, closer to his body. In the 2012 version (right), his hands are slightly higher and away from his body. This should give him a quicker path to the ball. Interestingly, when Hicks was first drafted, he had a severely long swing from the left side (which you can see in this pre-draft swing .gif here). His hands were significantly higher which led to an elongated swing. So these modifications are simply the evolution in shortening that swing. Also, similar to the aforementioned right-hand side, he is also compacted more which gives leaves him able to generate power from the lower-half better. The alterations made have led to a higher line drive rate (from 13% to 19%) and more power (from 2 home runs to 6) from this side of the plate. **** This should be viewed as very positive development for the 23 year old prospect. Along with his above average defense – including his exceptional arm in the outfield – Hicks has reaffirmed the belief that he is an elite prospect after putting up terrific numbers in double-A. With some seasoning in Rochester schedule for this year, if this progress continues, Hicks could quickly make his way into the Twins outfield. Click here to view the article

You only have two choices: will he be better or worse in 2013?Download attachment: Dozier.jpg 2012 Recap There are two things you won’t find in Minnesota: A liquor store that will sell you booze on Sundays and consistency at the shortstop position. The Minnesota Twins were hoping that the latter problem would be solved by Brian Dozier. Dozier, a shortstop drafted by the organization (another rarity), was given the opportunity a month into the season to claim the role as his own. Alas, he did not. Dozier’s stock shot up in the spring when the 26-year-old earned the praise of coaches and media members based on his performance in Florida. Sent to Rochester to begin the year, overall suckitude by the affiliate’s parent team incited his May call up. In his first 10 games, he provided false hope by hitting .286/.318/.476 with two home runs. Once scouting reports spread his numbers dropped faster than fan’s interest in the team. He got extremely pull-happy. His plate discipline disappeared. His frustrations at the plate seemed to lead to defensive miscues. Demoted in August, Dozier returned to Rochester and continued where he left off with the Twins. Why He’ll Be Worse In 2013 After a fast start, opponents quickly exploited his holes in his swing and his numbers dropped. His plate discipline swiftly eroded as team’s started to attack the outer-half of the zone and he managed to walk in under 5% of his plate appearances. To make matters worse, after being sent down to Rochester in August to work on this, he walked just twice in his final 76 PAs (2%). It was like his soul was crushed. While his minor league track record is decent enough, it is possible that teams have figured out his number and will play him like a fiddle (see: Valencia, Danny) until the team is forced to admit he is not capable of being an everyday player. Why He’ll Be Better In 2013 As mentioned above, he’s put up decent enough numbers in the minors and, in most cases, hiccups are to be expected as a player ascends to the next level. The struggles in 2012 could simply be part of a player’s natural learning curve. Plus, he’s reunited with his former minor league hitting coach Tom Brunansky, who has been credited with improving his approach while with New Britain. Together the pair may be able to help make the necessary adjustments to adapt to the competition. What will it be? A continuation of his 2012 season or will the 27-year-old finally emerge as a starter in this lineup? Click on this link to see our official thread AND take the survey. Then leave us a comment saying why. Read from our past For Better Or Worse series: Joe Mauer. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: uspw_6513098 (1).jpg When the Minnesota Twins traded Ben Revere to the Philadelphia Phillies, they acquired one pitcher who can help the team immediately, Vance Worley, and another who is expected to contribute in the future in Trevor May. Because Worley is the known commodity who will be a member the starting rotation right away, let’s focus on him first and breakdown May next week. Affectionately known as “Vanimal” to the Phillie fan base, the 25-year-old Worley wound up being the fifth starter on a team whose rotation featured a stable of prized horses including Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]On an average team, he’s likely a three or four-type starting. In the depleted staff in Minnesota however, until some additional moves are made this offseason, he could very well could be the second-best starter on the team. On the surface, Worley is very much a pitcher who fits the Twins’ mold: He throws strikes, he works ahead in the count and he pitches to contact. In fact, his 5.5% swinging strike rate last year was the third-lowest rate among all starters with a minimum of 130 innings pitched. That total fits in well with the Nick Blackburns of the world. Of course, the biggest difference was that Worley was still able to strike people out even if he couldn’t get them to swing-and-miss. His 18% strikeout rate last year would have finished ahead of everyone in the Twins rotation save for Francisco Liriano. So, if he’s not getting hitters to miss, how did he accumulate so many strikeouts? Jedi mind trick? In 2012 Worley’s strikeouts were largely a product of hitters failing to pull the trigger. As mentioned before, his swinging strike rate was well-below the major league average therefore he relied on painting corners and hitting his location. This past year, according to Baseball-Reference.com 57% of Worley’s strikeouts were of the looking variety. That mark was the highest among all qualified pitchers and surpassed the baseball average of 24%. In fact, no other qualified pitcher had more than half of their strikeouts looking. Interestingly enough, a higher amount of his strikeouts came against opposite-handed hitters rather than same-sided ones. Over his career, in the exact same number of plate appearances against both sides (597), Worley out-whiffed lefties (134) over righties (103). These reverse splits are related to the fact that he has caught more hitters looking versus getting them to swing and miss. Worley’s main weapon of choice against lefties is his sinking two-seam fastball. When he finds himself in a two-strike count, he will dial up this pitch more often than any other (40% of the time with two-strikes). This downward and glove-side run of this pitch combined with his excellent placement has allowed him to aim it at the hitter’s belt and watch it fade back over the plate, like this: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1354861486_Worley2.gif The location and movement of this sinking two-seamer freezes opponents in their tracks. According to his profile at BrooksBaseball.net, with two-strikes, Worley has gotten strike three looking on this pitch 20% of the time he throws it. Perhaps because of his tendency to ride a pitch on their hands or throw soft stuff away, left-handed hitters had a difficult time pulling Worley. Possibly due to necessity of avoiding Citizens Bank Park’s inviting right field stands, he was able to keep hitters from going that direction often -- instead redirecting them back up the middle or to the opposite field. Unfortunately, Worley’s ability to do the same against right-handed opponents was non-existent as he was decisively average in his directional splits. The idea that a pitcher can control where a hitter hits the ball is debatable however if he is able to repeat this skill, the ability to keep hitters to the big park of the field, specifically at Target Field, so be beneficial**. **Then again, the Twins just traded away two very solid defensive center fielders and could employ a “Balls-To-The-Walls” defensive alignment in the outfield. Another interesting component of his game is the way that he has kept the ball in the park despite pitching in a very hitter-friendly ballpark. In his short career, Worley has allowed just 0.75 home runs per nine innings while the rest of the league has been closer to 1.00 HR/9. What makes this feat even more impressive is that Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park, known for its home runs and quick-taze security guards, has been a home run haven. Left-handed hitters, in particularly, have thrived there. According to StatCorner.com, the CBP has a Home Run Park Factor of 126, well above the neutral of 100. For comparison, Target Field vastly decreases the amount of home runs by left-handed opponents, carrying a 76 Home Run Park Factor. In theory, the transition to the home run-suppressing Target Field should help keep his home run rate down while switching to a league with an added offensive player in the lineup. So all of this seems positive. Yes, there will be some statistical inflation when he switches from a league in which he gets to face a pitcher holding a rolled up newspaper every ninth man up but his methodology and new environment should be able adapt quickly. The concern, however, is the health of his elbow. This past August, Worley would be shut down due to “loose bodies” in his throwing elbow and have season-ending surgery. While these procedures are described lightly and often referred to as “clean up” by teams, they can be symptoms of more ominous issues inside the elbow. The aforementioned Blackburn, who once had similar movement on his sinker, required this procedure in order to clean out some “loose particles” in his elbow in October 2010. Since then, Blackburn has been on-and-off the DL, had more surgery and has pitched with almost zero effectiveness. Like Blackburn did, Worley relies on touch and finesse which is provided by a healthy elbow. Now, that is only a disclaimer. Focus more on the fact that Worley has strong ground ball skills, ability to get strikeouts without needing to getting hitters to miss and is still young enough to be a part of the rotation for several years. In all, I say Twins landed themselves a decent middle-of-the-rotation arm. Click here to view the article

Byron Buxton, says ESPN.com’s Keith Law, is a prospect with more tools than Home Depot. OK, now that the requisite pun is out of the way, let’s delve into the nitty-gritty. After MLB.com anointed Buxton the number one prospect in all the land, Law’s Top 100 list concurred. As a 19-year-old, the center fielder smacked pitching around in the Midwest and Florida State Leagues to the tune of .334/.424/.520 with 12 home runs and 109 runs scored. An on-base menace, Buxton scampered around the bases with blinding speed and, defensively, he covered more real estate than is in the Alaskan wilderness. But it is perhaps the most difficult aspect of the game -- hitting -- that separates the elite prospects from the flamed-out Brandon Woods of the world. The game is organic and climbing the ladder involves making changes in approach and mechanics to ensure the stud high school/college player not only reaches but succeeds at the highest level of professional baseball. When it comes to Buxton, those changes are in process. As Law writes about Buxton: The bold section of his analysis is what jumped out at me. At midseason, I reviewed Buxton’s mechanics from the available video at the time, compared the changes made from his high school showcase days and concluded that he and the Twins had made some significant changes to his swing. To summarize, Buxton had eliminated his open stance and leg kick in favor of an in-line approach with a toe-touch stride. In theory this provides improved timing and greater contact ability with less body movement -- the “balanced through contact” part that Law referenced. http://oi41.tinypic.com/2rh39lu.jpg What was prominent but not mentioned was the fact that his back leg left the ground at contact. At that time, I did not see this as a flaw, per se. After all, there are some hitters who do quite well for themselves with this in their swing. Albert Pujols’ swing pulls his back foot off the ground and forward after contact. More pronounced, however, is the Washington Nationals’ Bryce Harper who displays this very trait in his swing perhaps more than anybody. http://gamereax.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/harperderbyswing.gif As you see at the point of contact, Harper’s back foot has left the ground by an inch or two. Though somewhat unorthodox, in an article published by Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post last year, biomechanics expect Glenn Fleisig explained why this move is beneficial for Harper: Download attachment: BryceHarper_2102_HomeRun_001.jpg So, biomechanically speaking, the move in and of itself does not reduce power. The main difference between Harper and Buxton’s leg lifts was the weight transfer. In Harper’s case, you see that his front side has absorbed essentially all his weight. Buxton, on the other hand, lacks the max effort transfer and has a more balanced weight distribution making the leg lift something that could diminish his power. What’s more is that from the front view, it is noticeable that Buxton’s back leg slides out a bit, too. Over the course of last season, video of Buxton in Cedar Rapids and then Fort Myers showed the game’s top prospect demonstrating this back-leg lift in his swing, but there was evidence of it beginning to tone down in the Florida State League. It was not until clips of his performance in the Arizona Fall League that Buxton’s swing seemed different than that of his Midwest League. http://imageshack.com/a/img809/1010/4gl.gif http://imageshack.com/a/img829/952/s6u.gif From the Twins’ perspective, you can see why they would want to try to streamline Buxton’s mechanics. Any reduction of unnecessary movement will streamline the swing and provide Buxton -- who is graced with countless tools -- the opportunity to succeed at the major league level for a long time. Click here to view the article