Seth Stohs

I'd be comfortable with that.

Someone has to show a little positivity, right?

That's why I have him playing 62 games or so... my assumption is he'd get two months and be gone by mid-June.

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1386-Seth-s-2013-Twins-Hitting-Projections

Since completing the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook a month ago, I have managed to find a little extra time in my life. So, what did I do? I am so cool that I started making my Minnesota Twins Roster Projections (which can be found here and here). Today, another piece to that fun, preseason puzzle is presented for you today. It is my attempt to predict how the Twins hitters will fare in 2013. I'm sure you've reviewed several such projections, such as Bill James and PECOTA and others. However, those are all just done with a computer and with stats and all those things that seem to make a lot of sense based on several factors like the players' history, age and more. My projections are fairly similar, in nature, yet likely different in results. I admit that I used my computer and I looked at players' stats from previous seasons. I considered the players' ages and career trajectories. I also made some assumptions based on intangibles, either previously chronicled or developed on my own. In other words, I look at the numbers and then use my gut to determine what the player will do in 2013. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3287[/ATTACH] You're certainly free to disagree with them, if you like. Frankly, I just enjoy doing it because it helps me get ready for the upcoming season. I'm not going to claim that my projections are in any way better than the others you've read (even those other ones will be pretty close on some and not even a little close on others), but I am certainly willing to stand behind them. And, hopefully someone will remind me at the end of the season to look at them and see how close I was. I encourage all of you to do something similar and/or post your projections for the players below as well. Obviously we can't predict injury or trades and easier than we can predict who will break out and who will bust. But again, these are solely my projections for the 2012 seasons for the Twins hitters. It is not meant to be used in your fantasy league drafts or anything. If you do so, do so at your own risk. Please note that I projected player by player, and at the end, I compared my projected 2013 numbers to the actual 2012 numbers to see if I was completely off. I do show some small improvement by the offense overall. Note also that I have about 250 more plate appearances to reach those 2012 numbers, but I would say those are for other players who come up for brief stints, or to account for the unexpected. With that, I'm going to split the projections into two charts, in hopes that it will fit better onto your screen. Enjoy! [TABLE=width: 537] [/TD] G PA AB BA OBP SLG OPS C Joe Mauer 143 626 532 0.325 0.406 0.483 0.889 C Ryan Doumit 127 505 470 0.257 0.305 0.430 0.735 C Drew Butera 31 91 84 0.202 0.231 0.286 0.516 C Chris Herrmann 43 123 108 0.259 0.325 0.361 0.686 1B Justin Morneau 142 607 521 0.292 0.381 0.536 0.916 2B Brian Dozier 113 458 412 0.267 0.330 0.391 0.720 3B Trevor Plouffe 154 598 536 0.252 0.311 0.451 0.763 SS Pedro Florimon 62 179 164 0.189 0.218 0.262 0.480 UIF Jamey Carroll 129 335 281 0.274 0.343 0.342 0.685 UIF Eduardo Escobar 108 237 212 0.259 0.312 0.349 0.661 LF Josh Willingham 151 626 534 0.253 0.355 0.489 0.843 CF Aaron Hicks 91 397 336 0.265 0.348 0.399 0.746 RF Chris Parmelee 119 433 382 0.259 0.335 0.440 0.775 OF Darin Mastroianni 115 387 337 0.246 0.313 0.335 0.648 OF Oswaldo Arcia 33 128 115 0.322 0.367 0.487 0.854 OF Joe Benson 67 210 184 0.250 0.305 0.375 0.680 2013 Predictions 162 5940 5208 0.267 0.337 0.426 0.763 2012 Totals 162 6209 5562 0.260 0.325 0.390 0.715 [/TABLE] Here are more of the projected counting numbers: [TABLE=width: 498] R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO C Joe Mauer 78 173 38 2 14 78 3 81 92 C Ryan Doumit 49 121 31 1 16 63 0 33 92 C Drew Butera 5 17 4 0 1 7 0 4 19 C Chris Herrmann 12 28 6 1 1 13 1 12 18 1B Justin Morneau 77 152 32 1 31 86 0 79 99 2B Brian Dozier 49 110 27 3 6 41 13 41 52 3B Trevor Plouffe 78 135 30 1 25 68 1 51 121 SS Pedro Florimon 20 31 7 1 1 13 3 8 47 UIF Jamey Carroll 41 77 14 1 1 25 7 38 43 UIF Eduardo Escobar 18 55 11 1 2 23 3 19 38 LF Josh Willingham 71 135 27 0 33 104 1 87 141 CF Aaron Hicks 64 89 14 5 7 33 13 49 75 RF Chris Parmelee 42 99 20 2 15 41 1 46 88 OF Darin Mastroianni 44 83 12 3 4 31 29 38 94 OF Oswaldo Arcia 16 37 7 0 4 21 0 10 25 OF Joe Benson 24 46 8 3 3 22 8 18 51 2013 Predictions 688 1388 288 25 164 669 83 614 1095 [TD]2012 Totals 701 1448 270 30 131 667 135 505 1069 [/TABLE] That's a lot of numbers to digest, so take your time... Are there some you agree with? Others that you disagree with? Which are the most egregious? And again, be sure to post your projections for some of all of the players as well!

K........

No, I looked at their OPSs, and they were 100 points higher than Butera, but as Nick and I have said, there is so much more to the role of backup catcher than offense. In fact, I think most teams and most GMs would argue that it ranks well down the list of things they are looking for in a backup catcher.

Also, starting off with country music lyrics is... well, it's a... uhm, it's something!

Don't forget that the Twins can then trade guys like that in their 4th or 5th seasons for a big haul, as the A's have shown in some of their deals.

Also, I think that the plan for 2014 (or even later in 2013) would be for Chris Herrmann to be deemed ready, and then you have your backup catcher who can also play multiple positions. The Twins will then have three versatile catchers.

I think people need to stop calling Butera the "3rd catcher" because in reality, on most every single day, he is the backup catcher. Mauer is the catcher. Doumit is the DH. Or those two switch. Butera is the backup catcher. Every team has a backup catcher. Most team's backup catchers are defensive-minded players. It's really that simple. The last three World Series champion backup catchers were Hector Sanchez, Gerald Laird and Eli Whiteside, none of which can hit much and certainly don't bring as much to their teams defensively as Butera does. I really like Chris Herrmann, and even I'm not shouting for him to replace Butera at this point. As Nick has said way better than I ever could, it's completely a mute point. The Twins brass deems Butera worthy of essentially a league-minimum contract (close enough that it's not worth worrying about) because of his defense, his leadership, what he provides on the bench and to the pitchers. And, when he gets five at bats a week, it's just not a concern. If he gets 5 plate appearances, he'll get on once. If Mauer gets five plate appearances, he'll get on base twice. It's in the same category as complaining about Correia getting a 2-year contract. It's fun to whine about it for awhile, but it's done. It's not being reversed. Doesn't it get old continuing to talk/write about the same thing. It's really such a non-issue.

Although I will constantly advocate keeping a player down 1 month to keep them from being a free agent for a year, the Twins are not a team who really worries about it despite so many fans on this site thinking they do. 1.) When the Twins had a prospect the caliber of Trout and Harper (Mauer), they called him up for Opening Day, not worrying about what that would cost them long term. 2.) Chris Parmelee and Liam Hendriks were both on the Opening Day roster in 2012, so clearly the Twins don't worry about such things. 3.) The Nationals called up Harper to make his debut on April 28. He will be a Super 2 eligible The Angels called Trout up on April 28th as well, but he has 1.070 years of service, so he won't be a Super 2.

You're 100% right. It's that they get an extra year to make that decision. I think that's important.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/players-perspective/2013/2614657.html AJ Pettersen's new blog at Baseball America is terrific, as usual. He writes about his preparation for the college baseball season and how that differs from preparation during the offseason as a professional ballplayer! Great stuff!

Look up two very different results of Boras having players hold out... 1.) JD Drew, 2.) Matt Harrington.

I think he's definitely a comeback candidate for the reasons you mentioned, but he won't show a lot of pop even when healthy. Maybe doubles power with a few homers, but don't be expecting a lot. The question is, does he return to Ft. Myers or move up to New Britain.

Two very interesting situations... First, Soliman did have surgery, but it was the same surgery that Michael Pineda had last year in April or May, and he's not expected to be back until June. So, Soliman could miss the first half of the season still rehabbing. Salcedo did NOT have surgery and rehabbed until the middle of December and they had him back in Ft. Myers the first full week of January. Hopefully that was the right strategy because if it wasn't, it'll be another wasted year for him.

Maybe, but he also put up a pretty strong ERA, so no matter how, he actually got the job done most of last season.

Vavra is a terrific baseball man who knows the game like few others. He may have been a little quiet for some in the hitting coach role, but he understood video and found mechanical things, and he reviewed stats and worked very hard. The reason Brunansky is the right guy right now is because the team will have to count on some younger players this year, several that have worked with Bruno in the past and have a strong relationship with him. He does have a good personality for the job. But guys like Mauer and Morneau and Willingham have a ton of respect for Vavra, and Vavra has the right personality to do the right things. And Bruno is smart enough to let him help where appropriate. It shouldn't be a problem at all.

Hicks is very intelligent, although I don't know why that would be in question. He's a good guy, confident this year. Grew up a lot last year. He is very mature, but it will be interesting to see how he handles things. It's a big step. Great video, by the way! That was fun to watch.

There's no question, Jeremy is the expert on the draft here at Twins Daily. Be sure to follow in him twitter and check back frequently for his articles on the draft! Great stuff! And, frankly, I don't think that the Twins would be afraid to take Appel at all, if they believed he was the best guy available. I'd be surprised if Appel didn't sign this year. There is less leverage. His options are certainly more limited. And the Twins aren't afraid to go a little over-slot to get him or anyone. They've shown that before. It may mean taking a couple of college seniors in the next 10 picks, but that's OK.

Benson came over and talked to me outside of the locker room at Twins Fest and we chatted for a good half-hour. He actually hurt his hamate bone late in spring training, but thought it was just a awkward feeling, maybe a muscle pull above his wrist or something. He struggled with it in Rochester for the few 3-4 weeks, and finally, on a swing and a miss, he actually lost the bat and was in incredible pain. It had finally given out and needed the surgery. Then, when he hurt his knee, it wasn't the AA manager that noticed that something was wrong with Benson's knee. It was a former manager of Benson's who was in the opposite dugout, watched Benson play and said he wasn't right, something was wrong. That's what finally got Benson out of the lineup again. He went in for surgery with the assumption it'd be cleaned up, he'd rehab right away and be ready for the Arizona Fall League in 4 weeks. When he got out of surgery, he was still more than half out of it. The doctor updated him on how the surgery went and that when they got in there, found out it was worse. The next day, Benson came in for his rehab, and the lady said that everything was looking good and that he should be ready to start working out fully in about 12 weeks. It was a new trainer at the hospital, and he thought she was just wrong. The next day, he met a different trainer, who again said everything looked good, and he should be good to go in 12 weeks. Again, Benson thought that he was just mistaken and maybe didn't know he was an athlete who could recover faster. The following day, he went in again and asked if the doctor that did the surgery was in. He was, and Joe had a chance to talk to him. At that time, the doctor said that he had told him that he had a microfracture right after surgery. So, he was obviously disappointed, but he is very much anxious to be healthy and to get back on the field. He acknowledged that last year was incredibly frustrating and he's ready for 2013!

Something seemingly clicked for Fien mid-way through his time with the Red Wings last year. Before that, he was very mediocre, but at some point, he just started airing it out and found much more success. He carried that into his time with the Twins, and was a guy that Gardy could count on most times out. I think he's a given. I think when I did my roster projections, I had him and Burnett both very high in terms of likelihood to make the opening day roster. Pretty much a given.