Since completing the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook a month ago, I have managed to find a little extra time in my life. So, what did I do? I am so cool that I started making my Minnesota Twins Roster Projections (which can be found here and here). Today, another piece to that fun, preseason puzzle is presented for you today. It is my attempt to predict how the Twins hitters will fare in 2013.

 

I'm sure you've reviewed several such projections, such as Bill James and PECOTA and others. However, those are all just done with a computer and with stats and all those things that seem to make a lot of sense based on several factors like the players' history, age and more.

 

My projections are fairly similar, in nature, yet likely different in results. I admit that I used my computer and I looked at players' stats from previous seasons. I considered the players' ages and career trajectories. I also made some assumptions based on intangibles, either previously chronicled or developed on my own. In other words, I look at the numbers and then use my gut to determine what the player will do in 2013.

 

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You're certainly free to disagree with them, if you like. Frankly, I just enjoy doing it because it helps me get ready for the upcoming season. I'm not going to claim that my projections are in any way better than the others you've read (even those other ones will be pretty close on some and not even a little close on others), but I am certainly willing to stand behind them. And, hopefully someone will remind me at the end of the season to look at them and see how close I was.

 

I encourage all of you to do something similar and/or post your projections for the players below as well. Obviously we can't predict injury or trades and easier than we can predict who will break out and who will bust. But again, these are solely my projections for the 2012 seasons for the Twins hitters. It is not meant to be used in your fantasy league drafts or anything. If you do so, do so at your own risk.

 

Please note that I projected player by player, and at the end, I compared my projected 2013 numbers to the actual 2012 numbers to see if I was completely off. I do show some small improvement by the offense overall. Note also that I have about 250 more plate appearances to reach those 2012 numbers, but I would say those are for other players who come up for brief stints, or to account for the unexpected.

 

With that, I'm going to split the projections into two charts, in hopes that it will fit better onto your screen.

 

Enjoy!

 

[TABLE=width: 537]

[/TD]

G

PA

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

C

Joe Mauer

143

626

532

0.325

0.406

0.483

0.889

C

Ryan Doumit

127

505

470

0.257

0.305

0.430

0.735

C

Drew Butera

31

91

84

0.202

0.231

0.286

0.516

C

Chris Herrmann

43

123

108

0.259

0.325

0.361

0.686

1B

Justin Morneau

142

607

521

0.292

0.381

0.536

0.916

2B

Brian Dozier

113

458

412

0.267

0.330

0.391

0.720

3B

Trevor Plouffe

154

598

536

0.252

0.311

0.451

0.763

SS

Pedro Florimon

62

179

164

0.189

0.218

0.262

0.480

UIF

Jamey Carroll

129

335

281

0.274

0.343

0.342

0.685

UIF

Eduardo Escobar

108

237

212

0.259

0.312

0.349

0.661

LF

Josh Willingham

151

626

534

0.253

0.355

0.489

0.843

CF

Aaron Hicks

91

397

336

0.265

0.348

0.399

0.746

RF

Chris Parmelee

119

433

382

0.259

0.335

0.440

0.775

OF

Darin Mastroianni

115

387

337

0.246

0.313

0.335

0.648

OF

Oswaldo Arcia

33

128

115

0.322

0.367

0.487

0.854

OF

Joe Benson

67

210

184

0.250

0.305

0.375

0.680

2013 Predictions

162

5940

5208

0.267

0.337

0.426

0.763

2012 Totals

162

6209

5562

0.260

0.325

0.390

0.715

[/TABLE]

 

Here are more of the projected counting numbers:

 

[TABLE=width: 498]

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

BB

SO

C

Joe Mauer

78

173

38

2

14

78

3

81

92

C

Ryan Doumit

49

121

31

1

16

63

0

33

92

C

Drew Butera

5

17

4

0

1

7

0

4

19

C

Chris Herrmann

12

28

6

1

1

13

1

12

18

1B

Justin Morneau

77

152

32

1

31

86

0

79

99

2B

Brian Dozier

49

110

27

3

6

41

13

41

52

3B

Trevor Plouffe

78

135

30

1

25

68

1

51

121

SS

Pedro Florimon

20

31

7

1

1

13

3

8

47

UIF

Jamey Carroll

41

77

14

1

1

25

7

38

43

UIF

Eduardo Escobar

18

55

11

1

2

23

3

19

38

LF

Josh Willingham

71

135

27

0

33

104

1

87

141

CF

Aaron Hicks

64

89

14

5

7

33

13

49

75

RF

Chris Parmelee

42

99

20

2

15

41

1

46

88

OF

Darin Mastroianni

44

83

12

3

4

31

29

38

94

OF

Oswaldo Arcia

16

37

7

0

4

21

0

10

25

OF

Joe Benson

24

46

8

3

3

22

8

18

51

2013 Predictions

688

1388

288

25

164

669

83

614

1095

[TD]2012 Totals

701

1448

270

30

131

667

135

505

1069

[/TABLE]

 

That's a lot of numbers to digest, so take your time... Are there some you agree with? Others that you disagree with? Which are the most egregious? And again, be sure to post your projections for some of all of the players as well!