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    Seth's 2013 Twins Hitting Projections


    Seth Stohs

    Twins Video

    Since completing the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook a month ago, I have managed to find a little extra time in my life. So, what did I do? I am so cool that I started making my Minnesota Twins Roster Projections (which can be found here and here). Today, another piece to that fun, preseason puzzle is presented for you today. It is my attempt to predict how the Twins hitters will fare in 2013.

    I'm sure you've reviewed several such projections, such as Bill James and PECOTA and others. However, those are all just done with a computer and with stats and all those things that seem to make a lot of sense based on several factors like the players' history, age and more. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

    My projections are fairly similar, in nature, yet likely different in results. I admit that I used my computer and I looked at players' stats from previous seasons. I considered the players' ages and career trajectories. I also made some assumptions based on intangibles, either previously chronicled or developed on my own. In other words, I look at the numbers and then use my gut to determine what the player will do in 2013.

    Joe Mauer.jpg

    You're certainly free to disagree with them, if you like. Frankly, I just enjoy doing it because it helps me get ready for the upcoming season. I'm not going to claim that my projections are in any way better than the others you've read (even those other ones will be pretty close on some and not even a little close on others), but I am certainly willing to stand behind them. And, hopefully someone will remind me at the end of the season to look at them and see how close I was.

    I encourage all of you to do something similar and/or post your projections for the players below as well. Obviously we can't predict injury or trades and easier than we can predict who will break out and who will bust. But again, these are solely my projections for the 2012 seasons for the Twins hitters. It is not meant to be used in your fantasy league drafts or anything. If you do so, do so at your own risk.

    Please note that I projected player by player, and at the end, I compared my projected 2013 numbers to the actual 2012 numbers to see if I was completely off. I do show some small improvement by the offense overall. Note also that I have about 250 more plate appearances to reach those 2012 numbers, but I would say those are for other players who come up for brief stints, or to account for the unexpected.

    With that, I'm going to split the projections into two charts, in hopes that it will fit better onto your screen.

    Enjoy!

    [TABLE=width: 537]

    [/TD]

    G

    PA

    AB

    BA

    OBP

    SLG

    OPS

    C

    Joe Mauer

    143

    626

    532

    0.325

    0.406

    0.483

    0.889

    C

    Ryan Doumit

    127

    505

    470

    0.257

    0.305

    0.430

    0.735

    C

    Drew Butera

    31

    91

    84

    0.202

    0.231

    0.286

    0.516

    C

    Chris Herrmann

    43

    123

    108

    0.259

    0.325

    0.361

    0.686

    1B

    Justin Morneau

    142

    607

    521

    0.292

    0.381

    0.536

    0.916

    2B

    Brian Dozier

    113

    458

    412

    0.267

    0.330

    0.391

    0.720

    3B

    Trevor Plouffe

    154

    598

    536

    0.252

    0.311

    0.451

    0.763

    SS

    Pedro Florimon

    62

    179

    164

    0.189

    0.218

    0.262

    0.480

    UIF

    Jamey Carroll

    129

    335

    281

    0.274

    0.343

    0.342

    0.685

    UIF

    Eduardo Escobar

    108

    237

    212

    0.259

    0.312

    0.349

    0.661

    LF

    Josh Willingham

    151

    626

    534

    0.253

    0.355

    0.489

    0.843

    CF

    Aaron Hicks

    91

    397

    336

    0.265

    0.348

    0.399

    0.746

    RF

    Chris Parmelee

    119

    433

    382

    0.259

    0.335

    0.440

    0.775

    OF

    Darin Mastroianni

    115

    387

    337

    0.246

    0.313

    0.335

    0.648

    OF

    Oswaldo Arcia

    33

    128

    115

    0.322

    0.367

    0.487

    0.854

    OF

    Joe Benson

    67

    210

    184

    0.250

    0.305

    0.375

    0.680

    2013 Predictions

    162

    5940

    5208

    0.267

    0.337

    0.426

    0.763

    2012 Totals

    162

    6209

    5562

    0.260

    0.325

    0.390

    0.715

    [/TABLE]

    Here are more of the projected counting numbers:

    [TABLE=width: 498]

    R

    H

    2B

    3B

    HR

    RBI

    SB

    BB

    SO

    C

    Joe Mauer

    78

    173

    38

    2

    14

    78

    3

    81

    92

    C

    Ryan Doumit

    49

    121

    31

    1

    16

    63

    0

    33

    92

    C

    Drew Butera

    5

    17

    4

    0

    1

    7

    0

    4

    19

    C

    Chris Herrmann

    12

    28

    6

    1

    1

    13

    1

    12

    18

    1B

    Justin Morneau

    77

    152

    32

    1

    31

    86

    0

    79

    99

    2B

    Brian Dozier

    49

    110

    27

    3

    6

    41

    13

    41

    52

    3B

    Trevor Plouffe

    78

    135

    30

    1

    25

    68

    1

    51

    121

    SS

    Pedro Florimon

    20

    31

    7

    1

    1

    13

    3

    8

    47

    UIF

    Jamey Carroll

    41

    77

    14

    1

    1

    25

    7

    38

    43

    UIF

    Eduardo Escobar

    18

    55

    11

    1

    2

    23

    3

    19

    38

    LF

    Josh Willingham

    71

    135

    27

    0

    33

    104

    1

    87

    141

    CF

    Aaron Hicks

    64

    89

    14

    5

    7

    33

    13

    49

    75

    RF

    Chris Parmelee

    42

    99

    20

    2

    15

    41

    1

    46

    88

    OF

    Darin Mastroianni

    44

    83

    12

    3

    4

    31

    29

    38

    94

    OF

    Oswaldo Arcia

    16

    37

    7

    0

    4

    21

    0

    10

    25

    OF

    Joe Benson

    24

    46

    8

    3

    3

    22

    8

    18

    51

    2013 Predictions

    688

    1388

    288

    25

    164

    669

    83

    614

    1095

    [TD]2012 Totals

    701

    1448

    270

    30

    131

    667

    135

    505

    1069

    [/TABLE]

    That's a lot of numbers to digest, so take your time... Are there some you agree with? Others that you disagree with? Which are the most egregious? And again, be sure to post your projections for some of all of the players as well!

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