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Everything posted by Seth Stohs
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That would be my assumption too... I don't spend much time reviewing other organizations, certainly not that deep. I am of the belief - without any real research - - that the Twins not only have several high-ceiling prospects (including a couple who just graduated), but a terrific amount of depth. That, to me, is a differentiater.
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nicksaviking wrote it and deserves all the credit. When I promoted the blog to an article, I forgot to change the name, but corrected it right away...
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The signing of Brian Duensing with the Kansas City Royals closes the book on a story that was started in 1989. In the first round of that year's draft, the Twins selected Texas A&M shortstop Chuck Knoblauch who would go on to spawn the trade that would put Twins GM Terry Ryan on the map and the fruits of that trade would be felt until 2015. After seven seasons of what looked to be the beginning of a HOF career, Chuck Knoblauch and his 37.9 WAR wanted out of Minnesota and to a contender. Well that's how the fans knew it anyway, back before internet media was a thing. While largely unpopular at the time, the Twins received Brian Buchanan (0.3 WAR), Christian Guzman (7.5), Eric Milton (14.7) and Danny Mota (-0.1) in what would be the branches of our Knoblauch trade tree.THE BRIAN BUCHANAN BRANCH Brian Buchanan had some nice power potential and looked the part of a middle-of- the-order bat. Unfortunately for him, he found himself in a roster crunch as he was competing for the RF/DH spot with Michael Cuddyer, Dustin Mohr, Bobby Keilty, David Ortiz and Matthew Lecroy. Buchanan found himself shipped off to San Diego and in return the Twins received shortstop prospect Jason Bartlett (8.9). Bartlett would go on to play four seasons (initially) with the Twins before getting traded to Tampa Bay with Matt Garza and Eddie Morlan for Delmon Young (1.0), Brendon Harris (-0.6) and Jason Pridie (-0.2). Pridie teased Twins fans with his potential but never put it all together and was soon DFA'd. Brendon Harris found himself a mostly every day super-utility role for the Twins before being traded for Jim Hoey (-0.6) and Brett Jacobson. Jacobson never made it to the majors, Jim Hoey and his disastrous 24.1 innings unfortunately did. Delmon Young played three and a half mercurial seasons with the Twins, seemingly breaking out in 2010 and being a large reason for the team's division title. Alas, it was not to last and the following year he was traded to Detroit for Cole Nelson who never appeared in a MLB game and Lester Oliveros (0.0). Oliveros would tease with his potential, but he never got much of an opportunity to make it at the MLB level and was recently picked up the Royals. THE ERIC MILTON BRANCH That wraps up the Buchanan wing of the Knoblauch trade tree, so let's head back to the top and check in on Eric Milton. Milton pitched six seasons for the Twins, six seasons that saw an All Star appearance, a no-hitter, and a questionable contract extension. Despite that contract extension, the Twins were able to move him to Philadelphia for a package that included Carlos Silva (9.0), Nick Punto (10.3) and Bobby Korecky (0.2). Silva pitched four solid seasons for the Twins before signing a nice free agent contract with Seattle, but most interesting for Silva was his 2005 season when he set a modern day record of 0.4 BB/9. Seriously, that is bizarre. Check out the single-season leader board and the next closest modern day player was Brett Saberhagen with a 0.65 BB/9 which is almost a 40% increase: http://www.baseball-...ne_season.shtml Nick Punto just announced his retirement but played seven super-utility seasons with the Twins before leaving and winning a World Series with St. Louis in 2011. Bobby Korecky, we hardly knew you, except for that time in 2008 when the Twins lost their DH and you had to come to bat in the 11th inning. Of course in that 11th inning you not only got a hit in your only career AB but also the win. That has to be worth more than 0.2 WAR, which surely proves WAR is worthless. THE DANNY MOTA BRANCH Back to the top and we get to Danny Mota, who would do next to nothing for the Twins, appearing in all of 5.1 innings at the MLB level. THE CRISTIAN GUZMAN BRANCH The last branch on the Knoblauch trade tree begins with Cristian Guzman. The speedy shortstop made one All-Star Game and led the league in triples three times. He left as a free agent to Washington, but in doing so, the Twins were rewarded with a compensation draft pick. Not a first-round pick because that was protected. Not a second-round pick because that was already lost, but a third-round pick in the 2005 draft which the Twins used to select Brian Duensing (6. 2WAR). Duensing was an unheralded prospect who made an immediate impact in 2009 and found himself pitching Game 1 of the ALDS against the Yankees. It did not go well. Duensing had another nice season in 2010 as a swing man before settling in as regular out of the pen. His seven years with the Twins matches Punto and Knoblauch himself in terms of number of seasons played for the Twins. SUMMARY In total, 19 players were acquired due to the first-round selection in the 1989 draft and a total of 94.6 WAR was gained. These trees can be found throughout baseball, and surely there are others as fruitful, but this one has interested me for a long time. All of the comical propositions of tossing Duensing into trade proposals the last couple of years were serious by me because I wanted this tree to keep growing. It, however, will not. EPILOGUE The Twins 1989 draft was fantastic. They drafted three players with career WARs over 20 in Knoblauch, Denny Neagle and Scott Erickson. They also drafted Marty Cordova, Mike Trombley and Denny Hocking. Some of these players produced unexpected fruit. The trade of Erickson for Scott Klingenbeck and Kimera Bartee is one of Ryan's best known failures. In 1992, Andy McPhail made a trade of Denny Neagle that would live on for years. In trading a top prospect in Neagle (something unbelievable for the Twins today), the Twins received John Smiley, a very good, but not great pitcher whom the Twins wanted/needed to replace the departed Jack Morris. Smiley pitched one fine year for the Twins before leaving, and in his place the Twins got a compensation pick in 1993 which they used to select Torii Hunter. When Hunter left, the Twins used his comp picks to select busts Carlos Gutierrez and Shooter Hunt. Also, while the Twins didn't get a comp pick for losing Marty Cordova (even though he had an .828 OPS the prior year), they did get one for losing Mike Trombley in 2000. They used that pick to select Aaron Heilman, who had a really nice MLB career, just not with the Twins because he refused to sign with them. Click here to view the article
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Article: Seth's Top 30 Minnesota Twins Prospects 2016
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
There definely is some quality middle infield depth in the organization. Quality depth and just quality talent too. Polanco, Vielma, Gordon and Palacios are likely to be the full-season shortstops with Javier in the Dominican this year. Michael can play shortstop in the same vein that Brian Dozier can play shortstop. He didn't look good in that half season a few years ago, but he can play the position. Michael would likely be the same. In other words, probably fine as a utility guy if he can hit. When healthy, he puts together some quality plate appearances and good OBP. He's got a little pop too. Not a Top 40 for me, but doesn't mean he can't play a role with the Twins at some point.- 43 replies
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Article: Seth's Top 30 Minnesota Twins Prospects 2016
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Well he certainly was better than #19... ha!- 43 replies
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Article: Seth's Top 30 Minnesota Twins Prospects 2016
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yeah... just so people know... my Top 4 Twins prospects that year (2008) were: 1.) Deolis Guerra, 2.) Tyler Robertson, 3.) Anthony Swarzak, 4.) Kevin Mulvey... at 5, I finally put Trevor Plouffe, 6, Ben Revere... So, yeah.- 43 replies
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Article: Seth's Top 30 Minnesota Twins Prospects 2016
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yeah, his 11-19 is an interesting mix, maybe some guys he heard some good things about and wanted to include?- 43 replies
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Article: Seth's Top 30 Minnesota Twins Prospects 2016
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
to be fair, it was Baseball America that ranked Blackburn #1... I had him at #19 in the Twins system and I think Gleeman had him in the low 20s.- 43 replies
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Article: Seth's Top 30 Minnesota Twins Prospects 2016
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Hayes was just so skinny. As others have said, similar type of player. Kepler's just so much bigger and stronger, and I think he'll hit more homers, but of course, we shall see. It's an old comp, but physically, Kepler looks so similar to Justin Morneau in so many ways. Kepler's probably a little bit bigger. And yeah, if he can have that type of career, we'll all be thrilled.- 43 replies
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Article: Seth's Top 30 Minnesota Twins Prospects 2016
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
OK, yup... poor usage of the term floor. Should have gone with a floor of AA reliever or something.- 43 replies
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Article: Seth's Top 30 Minnesota Twins Prospects 2016
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yeah, he could be in there too. He's eligible and he's profiled in the Prospect Handbook.- 43 replies
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Article: Seth's Top 30 Minnesota Twins Prospects 2016
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yeah, maybe a little low on him, wondering if he'll be able to make that transition to starting. A lot of people think he can. We'll see. Dominant lefty relievers include Will Smith, Glen Perkins... Matt Thornton 8-10 years ago. Obviously his floor isn't that high, but people definitely believe in that slider and the fastball gets up to 96-97 out of the bullpen. I'd just say any left-handed reliever that you'd be comfortable in the 8th or 9th innings.- 43 replies
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Article: Seth's Top 30 Minnesota Twins Prospects 2016
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Twins do their physicals and they have an official record. I don't know how it gets out to Baseball Reference or MILB.com, or fangraphs or other places. My source was Kepler, but that was probably last August. Like I said, I think he actually looks bigger, stronger now.- 43 replies
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Article: Seth's Top 30 Minnesota Twins Prospects 2016
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yeah, Rosario's always been a starter, so they'll definitely keep him there... at least for the foreseeable future.- 43 replies
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Article: Seth's Top 30 Minnesota Twins Prospects 2016
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Some interesting stuff here though. Rodriguez should probably be included in the Honorable Mentions. He was named the Appy League Pitcher of the Year, and he's only been pitching for two years. 2016 is a big year for him though. Finally should get to full season ball, and we'll see how it goes. Cabbage and Blankenhorn will likely be tied together for years. Law is the one that was so high on Vielma a couple of years ago, ranking him 12th or something, and now that Vielma is on most prospect radars, he isn't in his top 19? I like Quezada. I think Jeremy had him just inside his Top 30. Another high-upside pitcher who has grown a lot and now has an upper-90s fastball. However, he was 21 in the GCL and still not great... 12 walks, 23 K in 21 IP with a 3.80 ERA. Minier is a guy that the Twins obviously liked enough to give a big bonus to, but he hasn't hit, and he hasn't been good at 3B or LF defensively. Probably just a DH.- 43 replies
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Article: Seth's Top 30 Minnesota Twins Prospects 2016
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Part of it might be ranking relievers lower than starters... not as a rule, but generally speaking. As much as I believe in Landa and think it was wise to add him to the 40-man roster, I'd like to see him stay healthy for more than a half-season at a time. So, I couldn't put him ahead of the guys I included, but he's definitely immensely talented. Rosario could probably be higher than where I have him based purely on stuff and potential. I kind of like where I have him though. Now going into a full season post Tommy John, hopefully he can make a big leap.- 43 replies
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Article: Seth's Top 30 Minnesota Twins Prospects 2016
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Does willowy mean small? Because he's like 6-3, 225... I'll attach a photo of him from yesterday. I think he's a big guy, very, very strong. He told me last year that he was at 220 and wants to get to 240. (Josh Hamilton's size when he was really good)- 43 replies
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Article: Seth's Top 30 Minnesota Twins Prospects 2016
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I was surprised with how high I had him. I'm notorious for ranking relievers lower than most, so to have him at 7 (and Chargois at 11, etc.) says something. Big fastball. Terrific slider. He looked like a different pitcher in the AFL, throwing strikes with both pitches . IF he can keep doing that, he'll be up quick. I think demotions from AA to High-A is probably not very unusual at all. Many say that AA is where college relievers will find their true test. It's a big jump. Just last year, Burdi, Jake Reed, Zack Jones and DJ Johnson all started at AA And moved back down to Hi-A. But, sometimes those struggles and maybe getting humbled a little bit is a positive thing long-term in their development.- 43 replies
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Article: Seth's Top 30 Minnesota Twins Prospects 2016
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yes it's probably completely unfair to rank Park with them, but my criteria has always been "has rookie eligibility." The tough part about ranking him, for me, is that there is so little to compare to. With most other minor leaguers, there is a ton of information available and I can go back through the last dozen years and try to think of similar players and all that. Well there just isn't a lot of history in the league with hitters from Korea. Park has the power and hte strikeouts, so he could be Sano-like, or he could be AB Walker-like. Kang is the only hitter that's come to the States from the KBO, and he was pretty good, but he was a different type of player, so... I guess we'll see.- 43 replies
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Article: Seth's Top 30 Minnesota Twins Prospects 2016
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Do you have a link, please? Thanks!- 43 replies
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As I wrote last week, there are national Top 100 lists out, and there are national and local Top 10, 15, 20, 30 and 40 prospect lists out there. Each September, following the Minor League season, I run a preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospect ranking. Then we spend three months researching and writing the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook, and in there, I submit my “official” top 30 list. Since that book has now been out for six or seven weeks, I’ll post my Top 30 Twins prospect rankings publically. (for those who didn’t get a paperbackor electronic copyhere yet) Next week, we’ll start the Twins Daily Top 20 Prospect list which will be based on the thoughts of Twins Daily writers and contributors. As I wrote about in the What To Make Of All These Prospect Rankings article last week, we all have our own personal thoughts and rankings, but the Twins Daily list will bring them all together.With that, let’s start looking at my personal Top 30 prospect rankings for 2016, starting at #30. I’ll include a tweet-length comment on each player and then show if and where that prospect ranks on Baseball America’s (31), MLB.com’s (30), Keith Law’s (10) and John Sickels’ (20) Twins prospect rankings. ----------------------------------------------------------- #30 - Travis Harrison - OF - 23 Supplemental first-round pick in 2011, seems like he’s been around forever, but he’ll be just 23 throughout the 2016 season. Home run power hasn’t come yet, but the potential remains. Baseball America: NR, MLB.com: 19, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: 16 #29 - Brian Navarreto - C - 21 I know I’m out on a limb here because he hasn’t hit at all yet, but he’s got the size, strength and swing to be a good hitter. Defensively, he is tremendous. Powerful arm. Baseball America: NR, MLB.com: NR, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #28 - Aaron Slegers - RHP - 23 He has the height, though he tops out at maybe 92. He’s got a good pitch mix and remarkable control. How he does in 2016 in Chattanooga will determine a lot. Back-of-rotation potential. Baseball America: NR, MLB.com: NR, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #27 - Fernando Romero - RHP - 21 Had Tommy John surgery in May of 2014. Missed all of 2015, but rumors out of Instructional League had him throwing in the upper 90s again. Still young, he has big potential as starter. Baseball America: 29, MLB.com: 20, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #26 - Trey Cabbage - 3B - 18 (Q&A) A tremendous athlete, he signed with the Twins instead of playing for his home state U. of Tennessee. He had a back injury and missed time in 2016, but a smooth swing and power potential. Baseball America: NR, MLB.com: 15, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #25 - Daniel Palka - OF/1B -24 Palka came to the Twins in November in exchange for Chris Herrmann. The Georgia Tech alum has a good combination of power and speed, but he also strikes out a lot. Will go to AA. Baseball America: NR, MLB.com: 30, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #24 - Mitch Garver - C - 25 (Q&A) Former ninth-round senior sign, Garver was our hitter of the year in 2014. He got off to a very slow start in Ft. Myers but ended strong, including in the AFL. Much improved defense. Baseball America: NR, MLB.com: NR, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #23 - Stuart Turner - C - 24 Another season with offensive numbers that don’t look good and somewhat hide a solid second half. Has the size and plate approach to be a better hitter. Defensive reputation and work with pitchers is legit. Baseball America: 16, MLB.com: 17, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: 14 #22 - Felix Jorge - RHP - 22 Aside from JO Berrios, no other starting pitcher in the Twins system was as consistently good in 2015. Was a given to go at least six innings. Three pitches with a low-90s fastball and youth. Baseball America: 24, MLB.com: NR, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #21 - Jermaine Palacios - SS - 19 His US debut was remarkable. He began in the GCL and hit his way up to Elizabethton where he continued to impress with the bat. Defense wasn’t good, but has a chance to be an OK shortstop. Baseball America: 19, MLB.com: NR, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: 12 #20 - Travis Blankenhorn - 3B - 19 (Q&A) Like Cabbage, Blankenhorn was a tremendous high school athlete whose best sport is baseball. Gave up scholarship to Kentucky to sign as Twins 3rd-round pick. Quickly moved to E-Town. Baseball America: 26, MLB.com: 16, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #19 - Randy Rosario - LHP - 21 (Q&A) Returned from Tommy John surgery midseason. Though his numbers weren’t great in Cedar Rapids, his stuff returned. Hit 97, good pitch mix. Could start. Often compared to Francisco Liriano. Baseball America: 22, MLB.com: NR, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #18 - Jake Reed - RHP - 23 Strong-armed reliever had a frustrating 2016 season after skipping High-A. Sent down to Miracle and did well before returning to Lookouts for playoff run. Another strong AFL performance. Hits mid-90s and gets a ton of movement on fastball and slider. Baseball America: 20, MLB.com: 18, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #17 - Taylor Rogers - LHP - 25 Minor league starting pitcher of the year in 2013 at Ft. Myers, his first full minor league minor league season. Moved up one level each year. Solid starter in Rochester. Dominated lefties. Struggled against righties. Has a legit chance to break camp with Twins as lefty reliever. Baseball America: 14, MLB.com: 13, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #16 - Wander Javier - SS - 17 Previously, I didn’t rank players until they played in the GCL, but the Twins gave Javier $4 million, so he’s someone worth watching. Has all the tools and the size to grow. Could develop power in time, but will need patience as he’s very raw. Most believe he can stick at shortstop. Baseball America: 11, MLB.com: NR, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #15 - Engelb Vielma - SS - 21 (Q&A) Diminutive, thin shortstop likely won’t accumulate many extra base hits, but his strong singles-hitting performance in the 2016 second half give hope that he can grow as a hitter as he gains strength. He is remarkable defensively, one of the best in minor league baseball. If he can hit at all, he’ll have a long MLB career. Baseball America: 18, MLB.com: 22, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #14 - Alex Meyer - RHP - 26 Rough 2015 season after being one of the best starting pitchers in the International League in 2014. He needed an offseason to regroup and many believe that he can. He’s likely to get another shot as a starter, but the bullpen may be where the future will find him. Still throws hard. Still has a sharp slider. With any control, he can get back to 2014 form. Baseball America: 12, MLB.com: 8, Keith Law: 10, John Sickels: 11 #13 - Lewis Thorpe - LHP - 20 Near the end of spring training a year ago, Lewis Thorpe had Tommy John surgery. Last week, he made his return to a mound for the first time and said things felt great. He could return to game action by June. When healthy, he has a 92-94 mph fastball, a good curve ball and change-up and a real understanding of what he wants and needs to do. Baseball America: 13, MLB.com: 14, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: 13 #12 - JT Chargois - RHP - 25 (Story) Chargois missed all of 2013 and 2014 due to injuries resulting in Tommy John surgery. He returned to the mound in 2015 with a fastball that frequently hit triple-digits. He also has a sharp slurve and a good change-up. He was added to the 40-man roster and has a good chance to debut with the Twins in 2016. Baseball America: 15, MLB.com: 11, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: 15 #11 - Kohl Stewart - RHP - 21 He may not strike many out, but he gives up very little hard contact. He gets a ton of ground balls. He has the pitches. He is very inconsistent and his fastball can range from 90 to 96 mph. He has a good breaking ball and a change-up, though they also are inconsistent. He has a chance to move up my rankings a lot in 2016 as things all come together. Baseball America: 8, MLB.com: 7, Keith Law: 4, John Sickels: 9 #10 - Adam Brett Walker - OF - 24 (Q&A) Power. Yes, it’s true that his power potential is just as high as Miguel Sano. He does have a knack for coming through in big situations. He strikes out a ton. While he walked more in 2015, he also struck out more. Defensively, he is not strong. His arm is certainly questionable. He has one really strong tool, and development of the other tools will determine his MLB future. Baseball America: 17, MLB.com: 10, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: 8 #9 - Tyler Jay - LHP - 21 The Twins will have Jay start in 2016 after getting his feet wet in the Miracle bullpen after signing. His floor appears to be a dominant left-handed reliever with the best slider in the organization but his value as the #6 pick in the 2015 draft is much higher if he can be a starter in the big leagues. Most believe he could help Twins in bullpen in 2016, but they will need to develop a good strategy on how to get him to the big leagues as a starter, which will take longer. Baseball America: 5, MLB.com: 3, Keith Law: 5, John Sickels: 5 #8 - Jorge Polanco - SS/2B - 22 Signed as a 16-year-old for his great hands and defense at shortstop, Polanco has turned himself into a potentially very good overall hitter. However, now the only real question remaining on Polanco is whether or not he can play enough defense. He really struggled at shortstop the last couple of seasons and some wonder if he can play well enough at second base. His bat is MLB ready now though. Baseball America: 6, MLB.com: 4, Keith Law: 6, John Sickels: 6 #7 - Nick Burdi - RHP - 23 We thought we would see Burdi in the big leagues in 2015, and that maybe wasn’t fair. He really struggled the first half of the season in AA, with control and command. He went down to Ft. Myers and turned things around. He returned late to Chattanooga where he did great setting up Chargois in Lookouts championship run. Dominated in Arizona. Showed better control and a strong fastball (98-101) to go with a really sharp slider. Huge potential. Baseball America: 10, MLB.com: 12, Keith Law: 9, John Sickels: 10 #6 - Stephen Gonsalves - LHP - 21 (Q&A) After making eight starts for Cedar Rapids at the end of 2014, he returned to the Kernels for nine more starts to start the 2015 season. He dominated. It took him a few starts to adjust to the Florida State League, but overall he put together some very strong numbers. He has the size and the pitch mix, and has added a pitch in the offseason which should help him. Very smart, confident pitcher who should pitch at two levels in 2016 again. Baseball America: 9, MLB.com: 9, Keith Law: 8, John Sickels: 7 #5 - Byung Ho Park - 1B/DH - 29 He’s 29, and it will be very interesting to see how he transitions to MLB from the KBO. Park hit 105 home runs over the last two season in Korea. He will primarily DH and get time at first base. He will strike out a lot, but that power potential is legit. He’s got good size and strength and works hard. He has been in Ft. Myers since Twins Fest, working every day. Baseball America: 7, MLB.com: NR, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #4 - Nick Gordon - SS - 20 Gordon really struggled from mid-April through mid-May. However, from May 22nd through the rest of the season (84 games), he hit .299/.361/.399 (.760). For a 19-year-old in his first full-season league, that’s pretty impressive (league OPS was .682). Didn’t display a lot of power, but that potential is there as he grows. Defensively, I think he is well above average and can stick at shortstop. Good hands, good range and a strong arm. Baseball America: 4, MLB.com: 5, Keith Law: 7, John Sickels: 4 #3 - Max Kepler - OF/1B - 23 Max Kepler has always had the tools. In 2015, those tools turned into skills. He hit for average. He walked more than he struck out. He hit for some doubles power and he showed more home run power late in the season and in the Lookouts playoff run. He took a more aggressive approach, including the leg kick. Defensively, he’s above average in the corners and can adequately play center field as well. Was the Southern League MVP and made his big league debut in 2015. He really does have five-tool potential. Baseball America: 3, MLB.com: 6, Keith Law: 3, John Sickels: 3 Photo of Max Kepler by William Parmeter. #2 - Jose Berrios - RHP - 21 It was another spectacular season for Berrios in 2015. He started the Futures Game for the second straight year. He began the season in Chattanooga before spending the second half in Rochester. He gave up ten runs in his first two starts but generally dominated at both levels. He led minor league baseball in strikeouts and increased his innings count. He has great control and three above average pitches. There are some legit concerns, but there is a good chance that he’s the Twins top pitcher for years to come. Baseball America: 2, MLB.com: 2, Keith Law: 2, John Sickels: 2 #1 - Byron Buxton - RHP - 22 Yup, he struggled mightily in his big league debut in 2015. He wasn’t ready. It’s that simple. After missing most of the 2014 season he began 2015 in Chattanooga. His numbers were OK, but he was remarkably inconsistent. He would have two terrible weeks followed by ten amazing games. That would be followed with three rough weeks before two strong weeks. In mid-June, the Twins needed a center fielder and despite knowing he wasn’t ready, the Twins called him up. Unfortunately, he got hurt and missed six weeks. He hit in all 12 games in played on rehab in Rochester, though he didn’t make a lot of hard contact. He returned to the Twins but played sparingly in September. Despite the struggles, nothing changes in a scouting report for Buxton. All of the tools are there. The speed and defense are legitimately elite and make him valuable even if he doesn’t hit. But, he will likely hit pretty well and even show some power, as he did in September when he hit two long home runs. It will be interesting to see how Buxton performs in spring training. Not so much the statistics, but in my mind, it will be all about the quality of his at-bats, specifically his pitch recognition. Baseball America: 1, MLB.com: 1, Keith Law: 1, John Sickels: 1 --------------------------------------------------------------- So there you have it. I know many choose not to include Byung Ho Park or Wander Javier in prospect rankings. That’s fine. The following players would comprise the Honorable Mention category, the next 14 (in alphabetical order): Luke Bard, Lewin Diaz, Ryan Eades, Tanner English, Sam Gibbons,Trevor Hildenberger, Yorman Landa, Mason Melotakis, Amaurys Minier, Brandon Peterson, Johan Quezada, LaMonte Wade, Lachlan Wells. Huascar Ynoa. Feel free to discuss. I know there are a few guys that many won’t have in their top 30s. I know there are a few guys that I rank higher (and lower) than others. Feel free to ask me any questions. I’ll try to respond as I have time. Again, next week, we will start our 2016 Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospect rankings! Click here to view the article
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With that, let’s start looking at my personal Top 30 prospect rankings for 2016, starting at #30. I’ll include a tweet-length comment on each player and then show if and where that prospect ranks on Baseball America’s (31), MLB.com’s (30), Keith Law’s (10) and John Sickels’ (20) Twins prospect rankings. ----------------------------------------------------------- #30 - Travis Harrison - OF - 23 Supplemental first-round pick in 2011, seems like he’s been around forever, but he’ll be just 23 throughout the 2016 season. Home run power hasn’t come yet, but the potential remains. Baseball America: NR, MLB.com: 19, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: 16 #29 - Brian Navarreto - C - 21 I know I’m out on a limb here because he hasn’t hit at all yet, but he’s got the size, strength and swing to be a good hitter. Defensively, he is tremendous. Powerful arm. Baseball America: NR, MLB.com: NR, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #28 - Aaron Slegers - RHP - 23 He has the height, though he tops out at maybe 92. He’s got a good pitch mix and remarkable control. How he does in 2016 in Chattanooga will determine a lot. Back-of-rotation potential. Baseball America: NR, MLB.com: NR, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #27 - Fernando Romero - RHP - 21 Had Tommy John surgery in May of 2014. Missed all of 2015, but rumors out of Instructional League had him throwing in the upper 90s again. Still young, he has big potential as starter. Baseball America: 29, MLB.com: 20, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #26 - Trey Cabbage - 3B - 18 (Q&A) A tremendous athlete, he signed with the Twins instead of playing for his home state U. of Tennessee. He had a back injury and missed time in 2016, but a smooth swing and power potential. Baseball America: NR, MLB.com: 15, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #25 - Daniel Palka - OF/1B -24 Palka came to the Twins in November in exchange for Chris Herrmann. The Georgia Tech alum has a good combination of power and speed, but he also strikes out a lot. Will go to AA. Baseball America: NR, MLB.com: 30, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #24 - Mitch Garver - C - 25 (Q&A) Former ninth-round senior sign, Garver was our hitter of the year in 2014. He got off to a very slow start in Ft. Myers but ended strong, including in the AFL. Much improved defense. Baseball America: NR, MLB.com: NR, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #23 - Stuart Turner - C - 24 Another season with offensive numbers that don’t look good and somewhat hide a solid second half. Has the size and plate approach to be a better hitter. Defensive reputation and work with pitchers is legit. Baseball America: 16, MLB.com: 17, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: 14 #22 - Felix Jorge - RHP - 22 Aside from JO Berrios, no other starting pitcher in the Twins system was as consistently good in 2015. Was a given to go at least six innings. Three pitches with a low-90s fastball and youth. Baseball America: 24, MLB.com: NR, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #21 - Jermaine Palacios - SS - 19 His US debut was remarkable. He began in the GCL and hit his way up to Elizabethton where he continued to impress with the bat. Defense wasn’t good, but has a chance to be an OK shortstop. Baseball America: 19, MLB.com: NR, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: 12 #20 - Travis Blankenhorn - 3B - 19 (Q&A) Like Cabbage, Blankenhorn was a tremendous high school athlete whose best sport is baseball. Gave up scholarship to Kentucky to sign as Twins 3rd-round pick. Quickly moved to E-Town. Baseball America: 26, MLB.com: 16, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #19 - Randy Rosario - LHP - 21 (Q&A) Returned from Tommy John surgery midseason. Though his numbers weren’t great in Cedar Rapids, his stuff returned. Hit 97, good pitch mix. Could start. Often compared to Francisco Liriano. Baseball America: 22, MLB.com: NR, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #18 - Jake Reed - RHP - 23 Strong-armed reliever had a frustrating 2016 season after skipping High-A. Sent down to Miracle and did well before returning to Lookouts for playoff run. Another strong AFL performance. Hits mid-90s and gets a ton of movement on fastball and slider. Baseball America: 20, MLB.com: 18, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #17 - Taylor Rogers - LHP - 25 Minor league starting pitcher of the year in 2013 at Ft. Myers, his first full minor league minor league season. Moved up one level each year. Solid starter in Rochester. Dominated lefties. Struggled against righties. Has a legit chance to break camp with Twins as lefty reliever. Baseball America: 14, MLB.com: 13, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #16 - Wander Javier - SS - 17 Previously, I didn’t rank players until they played in the GCL, but the Twins gave Javier $4 million, so he’s someone worth watching. Has all the tools and the size to grow. Could develop power in time, but will need patience as he’s very raw. Most believe he can stick at shortstop. Baseball America: 11, MLB.com: NR, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #15 - Engelb Vielma - SS - 21 (Q&A) Diminutive, thin shortstop likely won’t accumulate many extra base hits, but his strong singles-hitting performance in the 2016 second half give hope that he can grow as a hitter as he gains strength. He is remarkable defensively, one of the best in minor league baseball. If he can hit at all, he’ll have a long MLB career. Baseball America: 18, MLB.com: 22, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #14 - Alex Meyer - RHP - 26 Rough 2015 season after being one of the best starting pitchers in the International League in 2014. He needed an offseason to regroup and many believe that he can. He’s likely to get another shot as a starter, but the bullpen may be where the future will find him. Still throws hard. Still has a sharp slider. With any control, he can get back to 2014 form. Baseball America: 12, MLB.com: 8, Keith Law: 10, John Sickels: 11 #13 - Lewis Thorpe - LHP - 20 Near the end of spring training a year ago, Lewis Thorpe had Tommy John surgery. Last week, he made his return to a mound for the first time and said things felt great. He could return to game action by June. When healthy, he has a 92-94 mph fastball, a good curve ball and change-up and a real understanding of what he wants and needs to do. Baseball America: 13, MLB.com: 14, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: 13 #12 - JT Chargois - RHP - 25 (Story) Chargois missed all of 2013 and 2014 due to injuries resulting in Tommy John surgery. He returned to the mound in 2015 with a fastball that frequently hit triple-digits. He also has a sharp slurve and a good change-up. He was added to the 40-man roster and has a good chance to debut with the Twins in 2016. Baseball America: 15, MLB.com: 11, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: 15 #11 - Kohl Stewart - RHP - 21 He may not strike many out, but he gives up very little hard contact. He gets a ton of ground balls. He has the pitches. He is very inconsistent and his fastball can range from 90 to 96 mph. He has a good breaking ball and a change-up, though they also are inconsistent. He has a chance to move up my rankings a lot in 2016 as things all come together. Baseball America: 8, MLB.com: 7, Keith Law: 4, John Sickels: 9 #10 - Adam Brett Walker - OF - 24 (Q&A) Power. Yes, it’s true that his power potential is just as high as Miguel Sano. He does have a knack for coming through in big situations. He strikes out a ton. While he walked more in 2015, he also struck out more. Defensively, he is not strong. His arm is certainly questionable. He has one really strong tool, and development of the other tools will determine his MLB future. Baseball America: 17, MLB.com: 10, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: 8 #9 - Tyler Jay - LHP - 21 The Twins will have Jay start in 2016 after getting his feet wet in the Miracle bullpen after signing. His floor appears to be a dominant left-handed reliever with the best slider in the organization but his value as the #6 pick in the 2015 draft is much higher if he can be a starter in the big leagues. Most believe he could help Twins in bullpen in 2016, but they will need to develop a good strategy on how to get him to the big leagues as a starter, which will take longer. Baseball America: 5, MLB.com: 3, Keith Law: 5, John Sickels: 5 #8 - Jorge Polanco - SS/2B - 22 Signed as a 16-year-old for his great hands and defense at shortstop, Polanco has turned himself into a potentially very good overall hitter. However, now the only real question remaining on Polanco is whether or not he can play enough defense. He really struggled at shortstop the last couple of seasons and some wonder if he can play well enough at second base. His bat is MLB ready now though. Baseball America: 6, MLB.com: 4, Keith Law: 6, John Sickels: 6 #7 - Nick Burdi - RHP - 23 We thought we would see Burdi in the big leagues in 2015, and that maybe wasn’t fair. He really struggled the first half of the season in AA, with control and command. He went down to Ft. Myers and turned things around. He returned late to Chattanooga where he did great setting up Chargois in Lookouts championship run. Dominated in Arizona. Showed better control and a strong fastball (98-101) to go with a really sharp slider. Huge potential. Baseball America: 10, MLB.com: 12, Keith Law: 9, John Sickels: 10 #6 - Stephen Gonsalves - LHP - 21 (Q&A) After making eight starts for Cedar Rapids at the end of 2014, he returned to the Kernels for nine more starts to start the 2015 season. He dominated. It took him a few starts to adjust to the Florida State League, but overall he put together some very strong numbers. He has the size and the pitch mix, and has added a pitch in the offseason which should help him. Very smart, confident pitcher who should pitch at two levels in 2016 again. Baseball America: 9, MLB.com: 9, Keith Law: 8, John Sickels: 7 #5 - Byung Ho Park - 1B/DH - 29 He’s 29, and it will be very interesting to see how he transitions to MLB from the KBO. Park hit 105 home runs over the last two season in Korea. He will primarily DH and get time at first base. He will strike out a lot, but that power potential is legit. He’s got good size and strength and works hard. He has been in Ft. Myers since Twins Fest, working every day. Baseball America: 7, MLB.com: NR, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR #4 - Nick Gordon - SS - 20 Gordon really struggled from mid-April through mid-May. However, from May 22nd through the rest of the season (84 games), he hit .299/.361/.399 (.760). For a 19-year-old in his first full-season league, that’s pretty impressive (league OPS was .682). Didn’t display a lot of power, but that potential is there as he grows. Defensively, I think he is well above average and can stick at shortstop. Good hands, good range and a strong arm. Baseball America: 4, MLB.com: 5, Keith Law: 7, John Sickels: 4 #3 - Max Kepler - OF/1B - 23 Max Kepler has always had the tools. In 2015, those tools turned into skills. He hit for average. He walked more than he struck out. He hit for some doubles power and he showed more home run power late in the season and in the Lookouts playoff run. He took a more aggressive approach, including the leg kick. Defensively, he’s above average in the corners and can adequately play center field as well. Was the Southern League MVP and made his big league debut in 2015. He really does have five-tool potential. Baseball America: 3, MLB.com: 6, Keith Law: 3, John Sickels: 3 Photo of Max Kepler by William Parmeter. #2 - Jose Berrios - RHP - 21 It was another spectacular season for Berrios in 2015. He started the Futures Game for the second straight year. He began the season in Chattanooga before spending the second half in Rochester. He gave up ten runs in his first two starts but generally dominated at both levels. He led minor league baseball in strikeouts and increased his innings count. He has great control and three above average pitches. There are some legit concerns, but there is a good chance that he’s the Twins top pitcher for years to come. Baseball America: 2, MLB.com: 2, Keith Law: 2, John Sickels: 2 #1 - Byron Buxton - RHP - 22 Yup, he struggled mightily in his big league debut in 2015. He wasn’t ready. It’s that simple. After missing most of the 2014 season he began 2015 in Chattanooga. His numbers were OK, but he was remarkably inconsistent. He would have two terrible weeks followed by ten amazing games. That would be followed with three rough weeks before two strong weeks. In mid-June, the Twins needed a center fielder and despite knowing he wasn’t ready, the Twins called him up. Unfortunately, he got hurt and missed six weeks. He hit in all 12 games in played on rehab in Rochester, though he didn’t make a lot of hard contact. He returned to the Twins but played sparingly in September. Despite the struggles, nothing changes in a scouting report for Buxton. All of the tools are there. The speed and defense are legitimately elite and make him valuable even if he doesn’t hit. But, he will likely hit pretty well and even show some power, as he did in September when he hit two long home runs. It will be interesting to see how Buxton performs in spring training. Not so much the statistics, but in my mind, it will be all about the quality of his at-bats, specifically his pitch recognition. Baseball America: 1, MLB.com: 1, Keith Law: 1, John Sickels: 1 --------------------------------------------------------------- So there you have it. I know many choose not to include Byung Ho Park or Wander Javier in prospect rankings. That’s fine. The following players would comprise the Honorable Mention category, the next 14 (in alphabetical order): Luke Bard, Lewin Diaz, Ryan Eades, Tanner English, Sam Gibbons,Trevor Hildenberger, Yorman Landa, Mason Melotakis, Amaurys Minier, Brandon Peterson, Johan Quezada, LaMonte Wade, Lachlan Wells. Huascar Ynoa. Feel free to discuss. I know there are a few guys that many won’t have in their top 30s. I know there are a few guys that I rank higher (and lower) than others. Feel free to ask me any questions. I’ll try to respond as I have time. Again, next week, we will start our 2016 Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospect rankings!
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Article: Charting The Competition: Cleveland Indians
Seth Stohs replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Just posted this on Twitter... but Jose Berrios and Francisco Lindor have been life-long friends in Puerto Rico. The two (along with Javier Baez) held their event for kids in December. In a story I did back then, Berrios said of the two, "We played Little League since (we were) 5 to 6 years old. We are friends. We are family." So... how much fun is it going to be watching Berrios facing Lindor 4-6 times a season for (hopefully) the next decade?! -
They're fun... and give us something to talk about...
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