Danchat

This isn't helping my confirmation bias of every Twin pitcher blowing a lead/tie game immediately after securing it.

All Molly can do is keeping writing Dozier into the lineup and hope he finally gets hot, and unfortunately, it's not working.

Oh, I see... that explains why some of the stats have seemed off to me. I will try using one of those other fielding stats.

Twins Jose Berrios ® 1. Joe Mauer (L) 1B 2. Eddie Rosario (L) LF 3. Brian Dozier ® 2B 4. Eduardo Escobar (S) 3B 5. Jorge Polanco (S) SS 6. Max Kepler (L) RF 7. Mitch Garver ® C 8. Jake Cave (L) CF 9. Jose Berrios ® P Brewers Chase Anderson ® 1. Eric Thames (L) RF 2. Christian Yelich (L) LF 3. Jesus Aguilar ® 1B 4. Travis Shaw (L) 3B 5. Brad Miller (L) 2B 6. Manny Pina ® C 7. Nate Orf ® SS 8. Keon Broxton ® CF 9. Chase Anderson ® P

I was a proponent of trading for Corey Dickerson when the Rays DFA'd him, and he's hitting .301/.336/.448 (.783 OPS) for the Pirates this season. He would have made a nice DH although his power (6 HRs) has been lacking this season. It doesn't look like Morrison/Vargas/Carter are going to be solutions at DH.

Yep, I've already analyzed defense for each hitter and you'll see the results in part 2 (which should be out tonight). If you'd like to know, I used both Baseball-Reference's dWAR and Fangraphs' encompassing Defense stat.

I've already included Fangraphs' defensive stats for the hitters, so I'll try out Fangraphs' WAR there, but I don't think I'll go back and add it to the pitchers.

The Twins finished with 85 wins last year. At the current moment (writing as of 7/2/18), the Twins are on pace to win just 70 and lose 92. You can only scratch your head and wonder: Where did all the wins go? This is the first part of two articles focusing on the Twins pitching through Game 81 (July 2nd). In this statistical analysis, I'll be comparing Twins' WAR from 2017 to 2018, trying to match up position by position to see how things have changed. WAR is obviously not a perfect stat, so I've included others as a way to measure if WAR does things right. (all stats taken from Baseball-Reference.com) First, the starting rotation: The first thing to note: I'm comparing 81 game stats to 162 game stats. I am making the assumption that the current 2018 players will repeat their first half performances in order to compare them to their 2017 peers. Obviously there's no way they'll all play the exact same and it's likely none of them will double their WAR like I've projected, but for the sake of the analysis, we'll have to roll with that assumption. So, for example, Jose Berrios is projected to be exactly as valuable as 2017 Ervin Santana was if he continues his 2018 performance at the exact same pace. Berrios has the better peripherals, however, so I expect he could top Santana's 2017 season. Meanwhile, 2018 Kyle Gibson is projected to be twice as good as 2017 Berrios... I haven't supplied sample sizes here, so Berrios' 2017 looks lower WAR-wise, but that seems to be because he pitched several games at AAA, and you're not going to accumulate WAR there. Jake Odorizzi has been a small improvement from Mejia, as the two pitchers have surprisingly similar stat lines. Odorizzi has been better at getting Ks and keeping a few more runners off the bases. Do you think the Twins could use Fernando Romero back in the big league rotation? I sure do. I think he could easily top his current 7.7 K/9 and improve as the season wears on, but the inning limit is concerning. They're not going to be getting better starts from Mejia or Slegers. Meanwhile, Lynn brings up the rear and he's the only one who's lagging behind a 2017 peer - yup, Bartolo Colon! That's embarrassing. I've summed up all the rest of the Twins starters (which was a massive list in 2017) into just their WAR, so guys like Phil Hughes, Tim Melville, Nick Tepesch, Aaron Slegers, and the crew netted -2.2 WAR... yuck. The 2018 Twins scrub starters (Mejia/Littell/Hughes) were a far more tolerable -0.5 WAR, which projects to finish at -1.0 WAR on the season. All in all, the rotation appears to be worth nearly 3 more wins than it was in 2017. Does that sound right to you? In my opinion, that seems about right. They're a definite improvement on 2017 but the back end (Odorizzi/Lynn) have left me wanting more. Next up, the bullpen: Before Rodney blew his last two saves, he was around where Kintzler was (at 0.5, projected to finish at 1.0), but he's dropped closer to replacement level as he's struggled lately. While Rodney gets strikeouts, he allows too many baserunners and he's got a fine margin for error - something Kintzler never seemed to struggle with. Remember Kintzler only played 4 months for the Twins in 2017 as he was traded, and his WAR in Washington doesn't count here. A full season of Hildenberger seems to be worth a full win according to my calculations. While his strikeout numbers are down from 2017, he's been mostly effective with a few bouts of incompetence early on. Speaking of that, inconsistency seems to plague Reed, who was untouchable in April but is now nearing replacement level. Not good for the reliever making $7.5M this season. Taylor Rogers was great for the first half in 2017, but his second half was mediocre to average. Current Rogers is just OK and his numbers against both lefties and righties have declined. Duffey was the mop-up guy last year, but even in low leverage situations, he wasn't good. Zach Duke was a solid signing who should end up netting at least 0.4 WAR, though his WHIP concerns me. Ryan Pressly, on the other hand, seems to fluctuate by month whether he's totally dominant, totally hittable, or something in between. That's at least better than what we got from him last year. Matt Belisle somehow ended up adding positive value in 2017 as he defied the odds as the Twins closer down the stretch after an awful first half. Unfortunately, current Belisle seems to be nowhere near that form. I've lumped up all of the rest of the 'pen arms together, and the news isn't good - the motley crew from 2017 comprised of Gee, Boshers, Busenitz, Breslow, Tonkin, Haley, Turley, and the rest somehow projects to be a full win better than 2018's crew of Hughes, Magill, Belisle, Duffey, Busenitz, Slegers, and the rest. Added all up, the 2018 bullpen projects to be just 0.2 wins better than the 2017 'pen... which is a definite disappointment after adding Rodney, Reed, and Duke in free agency, but at least that's not a negative number. So all in all, the pitching appears to be 3.1 wins above where they finished in 2017. Not bad, and if you told me at the beginning of the season that this was the case... I'd be ecstatic. Clearly the Twins would be able to at least take on the Yankees and Astros in the playoffs... But a bloodbath awaits. Tune in tomorrow (actually later today (July 4th)) for part 2 where we do what could be considered an autopsy of the offense. From what I've calculated so far... I think WAR does it justice. Until then, Danchat out! -- Feel free to leave a comment and ask about the process to calculate this, which WAR stats look questionable, or any other notable notes. --

With Buxton, Petit, Romero, Duffey, and Busenitz playing for AAA today, they look more like the Twins than the Red Wings. A few of those guys should be on the major league roster sooner than later...

Look, in some cases I agree, but this is Rooker's first full season in the minors and he's only had 322 PAs against upper minors pitching. I don't think 2018 is the time for Rooker's debut. Though I'm glad we're having this conversation at all; early in the season Rooker was struggling big-time and one poster didn't consider Rooker a prospect anymore. I'm glad we're past that.

Absolutely agreed, Vargas isn't hitting at AAA, so why would he hit better against major league pitching? The DH solution isn't in the current organization, but I would be fine if Morrison was DFA'd.

It's probably more about A) Rooker not being quite ready for the majors and not wanting to start his 'option clock' until 2019. I'd settle for seeing him get some AAA PAs this season.

I for one am glad Moya was able to go out there and get 6 outs without allowing a baserunner. Here's hoping he can force his way into staying on the roster for good, just like Hildy did last year.

It’s too bad, but Escobar was never going to be a .300+ and .900 ops guy. I do think he can be a .270+ .800 ops guy. That’s why you don’t offer a contract extension while he’s in a hot streak.

Rosario gave up 8 runs in 2.1 innings in his element as a reliever in the majors... and despite the great ERA numbers he actually isn't striking out anybody this season. Odd stuff, but Randy looked bad in his short stint here, just like Littell.

Probably because his past 14 starts at AA went to the tune of 2.42 ERA. Even in that 5 start sample at AA, he struck out 12.5 K/9, and they were holding guys at AA when they probably should have been at AAA, so the promotion likely wasn't performance based. The Twins should send Littell back to AAA and have him work on his stuff and see where he is next year. He hasn't looked remotely ready for the majors in a 4 inning sample size, but that shouldn't ruin the rest of his career. (e. g. look at what Randy Rosario is doing for the Cubs after what he did with the Twins/AA last season). Twins rookie starters almost always start off terribly within the past 5 years or so, so I wouldn't give up on Littell yet.

Gonsalves is at 4.30 ERA, maybe that's what he meant? The other guy in the Garcia trade was Enns, who was recently demoted to AA. He's not (and honestly wasn't originally considered) a prospect.

Littell was called up as the long reliever... but then Molly used him in the 10th to defend a tie game, what'd you think was going to happen? We could have had Duffey or Busenitz in here... and clearly he isn't ready to use Belisle in a game like this. Just a total waste of roster spots and poor management. I think I'm going to stop criticizing this because it should be plainly obvious to anyone watching.

Yeah, Littell has looked really bad in his two MLB appearances, but how is a 3.00 ERA with 8.3 K/9 at AAA "hot garbage"?

Clearly we don't need Busenitz, who won our last extra innings game, or somebody like Duffey, who looked good last time up. We obviously need to make space for Matt Belisle.

I really want to wish Littell well but I don't see any way we're going to win this. They still have Hader waiting in the wings.

What did I tell you about 1 run leads?! At least it wasn't a 5 run lead. And also, what did I tell you guys about not Molly not using the hot hand...

It's the 9th inning with a one run lead and we know how Molly operates. You don't go with the hot arm, you go with Rodney because he's the closer, decision over.

We have a one run lead and 4 full innings of the bullpen to come... and you guys know how good the Twins are at winning one run games.

Wow, that was nearly a complete catastrophe there. Orf just missed that one.