Willihammer

We're taking a look at how the Twins acquired their talent using the 6 methods of talent acquisition. In Part 1 we looked at Twins position players. In Part 2, we looked at the pitchers. Today, we'll compare the Twins' successes in the 6 methods of talent acquisition versus the rest of the American League. 1. Amateur Draft We already know the Twins have acquired the most positional talent and the 2nd most pitching talent from the Amateur draft, as measured by WAR. But roster space is limited. How does the average Amateur Draftee stack up against the rest of the AL? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] http://i.imgur.com/qLqHjp0.png The big outlier here is the Red Sox, whose draftees have been a half-win better than average. The rest of the AL is grouped fairly closely, with the Twins very much in the middle. Their positional draftees have been .02 WAR worse than average, while their pitchers have been .09 WAR better. Overall, they're slightly (.07 WAR) better than average at drafting amateur talent under Terry Ryan. 2. Amateur Free Agency Overall, the average Amateur Drafted-pitcher is worth .78 WAR. The average Amateur Free Agent pitcher? .80 WAR. For position players - 1.25 WAR for the average Draftee, and 1.10 for the average Amateur FA. However the distribution of Amateur FA talent has been very uneven. http://i.imgur.com/i8CHiMM.png The Twins are 2nd to last in average WAR, but its not really for a lack of trying. For example, the Twins and White Sox have both signed 16 Amateur FAs. The Twins have gotten just 11 WARs to the White Sox's 61.2. What gives? http://i.imgur.com/CsRPX8u.png Couple of things. First, the Twins didn't dip their toes in the Amateur FA water till 2000 when they acquired Luis Rivas - one year after the Sox acquired Carlos Lee, and three years after they got Magglio Ordonez. Culprit no. 1 is late timing. Culprit 2, it appears, is the Twins' reluctance to hand out signing bonuses and multiyear contracts, combined possibly with poor scouting. After the Twins became active in Amateur Free Agency, talents like Alexei Ramirez, Fernando Rodney, Joaquin Benoit, Felix Hernandez, Roberto Hernandez, Rafael Soriano, Omar Infante, and Victor Martinez managed to fall into the competition's hands. Some signed contracts with half-million or greater bonuses, others signed for much less. In general, the pricier contracts went to better players. 3. Rule 5 Draft The results of the Rule 5 Draft are curious. They ought to be skewed by a self-selecting sample. Players who are able to stick on their team's 40 man roster for an entire year should be pretty good right? Wrong. Only 3 of the 67 players who "stuck" on the drafting team's rosters have posted cumulative WARs of 5 or more - a rate of 4.4%. A worse rate than the Amateur Draft (16%), Trades (15%), Amateur Free Agency (14%), and Free Agency (9.1%). Only Waiver pickups produce 5+ WARs at a worse rate (3.4%). 4. Trades Total player-seasons from trades outnumber all other avanues of talent acquisition except the Draft (3094 to 3274). Unlike the Draft, however, there is not a lot of variance in the output from tradees: http://i.imgur.com/6mFJJKG.png The Twins average exactly 1 WAR per season from players returned in trade. This puts them 0.07 WAR above average in the AL, boosted again by the acquisition of Johan Santana. In fact, only 3 trades have worked out better: Pedro Martinez for Carl Pavano and Tony Armas in 1997 in a deal between the Expos and Red Sox; ARod to the Yankees for Alfonso Soriano and Joaquin Arias; and Miguel Cabrera (and Dontrelle Willis) from the Marlins to the Tigers in exchange for Dallas Trahern (minors), Burke Badenhop, Frankie De La Cruz, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and Mike Rabelo in 2007. 5. Waivers The Twins have relied on waivers for 35 player-seasons since 1995, third most in the American League. They have not, however, gotten as much production from those players as other teams. http://i.imgur.com/btG8Vuw.png The White Sox have only taken 10 waiver pickups since 1995, but gotten some decent production out of 4 of them - De Aza (4.5 WAR), Rios (6.1), Bobby Jenks (8.7) and Phil Humber (2.3). For the rest of the AL, waivers are the least reliable method for acquiring talent, and the Twins are no exception. Of the 20 waiver claims the Twins have made since 1995, 10 have produced negative WAR. At 7.5 WAR, Matt Guerrier is by far the best of the 20 waiver pickups since 1995. 6. Free Agency The Twins have signed 104 Free Agents since 1995. On average, the FA player-season has been worth just .42 WAR, last among AL teams (excluding the Astros). http://i.imgur.com/BVJ7w3K.png As with Amateur Free Agency, the production from Free Agents has mirrored prices. http://i.imgur.com/ChaTiAd.png The Yankees have proven that with enough money, you can build a roster from free agency. Since 1995, their FAs have produced at a clip of 1.1 WAR player season - identical to the Twins average Amateur Draftee - and it only cost them $981 million to get it. On the other hand, the Red Sox, Angels, Athletics, Rangers, and White Sox have gotten tremendous value through the Draft and Amateur Free Agency whereas the Twins have gotten average talent out of the Draft and almost no talent out of Amateur Free Agency. What are Red Sox scouts doing that the Twins' aren't? Does Terry Ryan know? Is he willing to change? Is he the guy to diversify and uncover new pockets of talent before others get to them, or will he keep on the boom and bust cycle with each crop of Amateur Draftees?

In Part 1, we looked at the Twins history of acquiring positional talent via the Amateur Draft, Amateur Free Agency, the Rule 5 Draft, Trades, Waivers, and Free Agency, during the Terry Ryan era (1995-2013). Here we will do the same for pitchers. PITCHERS 1. Amateur Draft Since 1995, the Twins trail only the Toronto Blue Jays in their reliance on the Amateur Draft for pitching talent, getting 136 player-seasons from 39 pitchers, good for 120 WAR. Notably, Brad Radke owns a full third (45.5 WAR) of that total. Overall, the average Twins Amateur Draftee has pitched to a .88 WAR season. But take Radke out of the equation, and the average drops to .60 WAR. http://i.imgur.com/MG4siqR.png 2. Amateur Free Agency The Twins have given 24 player-seasons to Amateur FA pitchers since 1995. Juan Rincon and Jose Mijares share the top 7 highest WAR seasons. Others in this category include Liam Hendriks, Grant Balfour, Michael Nakamura, Rob Delaney, and Cole DeVries. Together they average a 0.29 WAR season. http://i.imgur.com/73gC0Tm.png 3. Rule 5 Draft The five Rule 5 Twins player-seasons since 1995 are owned by Scott Diamond (3), Ryan Pressly (1) and Travis Baptist (1). Together they have pitched 432.1 innings for a WAR of 1.9. http://i.imgur.com/9ni3gmd.png 4. Trades Trades account for 90 (pitcher) player-seasons since 1995. Of all other AL teams to have existed for the period 1995-2013, only the Angels have been less-reliant on trades to fill their pitching staffs. But, the Twins own the best WAR-average at 1.36, boosted by the acquisitions of Johan Santana (35.4 WAR over 8 seasons), Eric Milton (14.7/6), Joe Nathan (18.3/7), Joe Mays (10.6/6) and Francisco Liriano (9.9/6). http://i.imgur.com/uVp33wI.png 5. Waivers Jeremy Guthrie owns the distinction of most productive pitcher acquired by Waivers since 1995. He was worth 16.5 WARs for the Orioles from 2007-2011. The next closest is Darren O'Day at under 10 WAR. For the Twins, 13 waiver-wire pitchers have been worth 7.6 WAR over 25 player-seasons. Matt Guerrier (7.5 WAR) has been the most productive pickup, with the other 12 players producing just 0.1 WAR. http://i.imgur.com/2CN4lbQ.png 6. Free Agency Bob Tewksbury remains the best free agent pickup for the Twins. He produced 6.5 WAR at a price of 3.75 million over the 1997-1998 seasons. Overall, Twins FA pitchers average .47 WAR per season, good for 8th in the AL http://i.imgur.com/VmwNq1Y.png So, in order of average WAR, the Twins most successful means of acquiring pitching talent since 1995 are: 1. Trades (1.36) 2. The Amateur Draft (.88) 3. Free Agency (.47) 4. The Rule 5 Draft (.38) 5. Waivers (.30) 6. Amateur Free Agency (.29)

Last Friday Terry Ryan spoke to Paul Allen about Free Agency: Free Agency is only one of the 6 most common methods of acquiring talent. The others are the Amateur Draft, Amateur Free Agency, Rule 5 Draft, Trades, and Waivers. Using Baseball-references Player registry data, I will examine the Twins' successes at acquiring positional talent via these 6 methods during the period 1996-2013 - the Terry Ryan era. (data here) POSITION PLAYERS The Amateur Draft Since 1996, the Twins have 194 player-seasons from players acquired via the Draft, most of any AL team. They have paid these players a combined $389,248,998, 2nd only to the Yankees. These players have put up an average of 1.26 WAR, good for 6th in the AL. http://i.imgur.com/gKvQamF.png 2. Amateur Free Agency This includes signing international prospects. Sixteen player-seasons have been worth an average of just .26 WAR. Bobby Kielty, Luis Rodriguez, and Luis Rivas own most of those seasons. Josmil Pinto and Oswaldo Arcia own one apiece. http://i.imgur.com/BPAcyJd.png 3. Rule 5 Draft Brian Buscher and Jason Pridie are the two Rule 5 position players to stick on the 40 man roster during Ryan's and Smith's tenures. Combined, they provided 0.3 WAR over 5 player-seasons at a cost of just under 2 million. The most active Rule 5 team during this time was the Baltimore Orioles, who kept Jay Gibbons on as DH/outfielder for the 2001-2007 seasons. http://i.imgur.com/pUgIpiT.png 4. Trades The Twins have given 70 player-seasons to players acquired by trade since 1996. Jason Bartlett, Lew Ford, and Christian Guzman accumulated 9.1, 8.4, and 7.4 WARs over 15 player seasons. On the other end, Ron Coomer, David Ortiz, and Alexi Casilla accumulated between 2 and 4 WARs over 6+ seasons each. Overall, the average player-season was worth .54 WAR, last among AL teams (excluding Houston and Milwaukee.) http://i.imgur.com/0M6YzGI.png 5. Waivers The Twins have played 7 Waiver claims in positions 2-9 since 1996. They are (WAR in Parenthesis): Augie Ojeda (1.2), Casey Blake (-0.2), Clete Thomas (0.2), Corky Miller (-0.2), Darin Mastroianni (0.3), Erik Komatsu (-0.2), and Pedro Florimon (3.8). The average waiver claim-season has been worth 0.42 WAR, boosted largely by Florimon's 2013 season which has so far been worth 2.2 WAR. http://i.imgur.com/YQ4cjv5.png 6. Free Agency Since 1996, the Twins have 84 Free Agent position player-seasons. WAR likes Paul Molitor (5.2), Josh Willingham (3.9) and Jamey Carroll the most (3.5). On the other end are Rondell White (-1.5), Butch Huskey (-1.0), and Kevin Maas (-0.8). Overall, the Twins average a 0.38 WAR season from Free Agent position players. This is the worst average in the AL (excluding Houston and Milwaukee). Interestingly, they also pay their Free Agents the least of any AL team. http://i.imgur.com/MxJJnAt.png So, in order of average WAR, the Twins' most successful means of positional talent acquisition under Terry Ryan (and 4 seasons of Bill Smith): 1. Amateur Draft (1.26 WAR) 2. Trades (0.54) 3. Waivers (0.42) 4. Free Agency (0.37) 5. Amateur Free Agency (0.26) 6. Rule 5 Draft (0.06) *Note about the Salary figures - rather than look up days spent on the active roster for all the minimum wagers, I assumed they were paid a full season's worth. Therefore salary figures are a little inflated, specially for waivers, rule 5, and amateur draft guys.

Since 2006, 851 players have logged at least 200 PAs in the Florida State League (High A). This is a sample of players that includes guys like Giancarlo Stanton (age 19), Jay Bruce (20), JP Arencibia (22), Allen Craig (22), and Domonic Brown (21). Another 746 have logged at least 200 PAs in the Eastern League (AA) since 2006. Players include Brandon Belt (22), Matt Wieters (22), Pedro Alvarez (22), Ike Davis (22), Kevin Kouzmanoff (24), Josh Reddick (22), Carlos Santana (23), Brennan Boesch (24), and Adam Lind (22). Miguel Sano has logged 200 PAs in both leagues. He's also put up the single highest ISO since fangraphs started tracking these statistics in 2006. In BOTH leagues. (ISO, or Isolated Power, is Slugging Percentage minus batting average. So it measures pure power - how good a player is at accumulating "extra" bases in the form of doubles, triples and home runs.) Here's a quick look at the top 50 performances, by ISO: http://i.imgur.com/n2om1ZW.png?1 Five players posted .250 or better ISO seasons at age 20 or younger in the Florida State League. Of these, only Giancarlo Stanton went on to post a better ISO in AA as a 20-year-old in the Southern League (although Javier Baez is holding a .352 ISO through 194 PAs, also in the Southern league). As stated above, the sample includes all players with a minimum of 200 PAs in either league. If a player hit a lot of gap triples and bloop doubles, ISO could be measuring speed more than power (ISO is Slg%-Avg, or total bases, not including 1st base, divided by ABs). In order to eliminate that possibility, we can just look at home run rate, expressed as AB/HR. http://i.imgur.com/pBT7I0K.png?1 Sano ranks 2nd and 4th in home run rates (tops for the EL) since 2006. If you have been following Sano's year, this shouldn't be a surprise - he has 31 bombs after all. And look at the ages at the top of that list. One of these things is not like the other. So there you have it. Sano's 2013 ranks among the top power seasons in both the Eastern League and the Florida State League dating back to 2006, in just about any way you care to measure power. And he's done it at a younger age than anyone except Giancarlo Stanton.