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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    May is a bad example, I forgot he has one option year left. It boils down to what you think is a smart allocation of roster spots and playing time and I think I've made my opinion more than clear that hoping Brett Anderson's bulging disc regenerates itself, or that Justin Masterson recovers from 3 different injuries in a single offseason, are a fool's gamble.
  2. Willihammer
    I'm not the one presuming he can outsmart the market. People think 1 year guaranteed bounceback contracts on injured players is a smart gamble. That opinion underemphasizes the likelihood of sub-replacement level production and overemphasizes the upside, and the proof is in the price. The Twins are already hoping for bouncebacks from 3-4 players. Therefore, what this team needs is to take on as little additional risk as possible, not waste precious roster spots on players with very long odds to reach their upside. Get out of the bargain bin, in other words.
  3. Willihammer
    "If healthy" is such a huge caveat, it should preclude any kind of guaranteed deal. We're talking about 25 roster spots, not 53. I don't know what kind Wolverine bodies you people inhabit, I know mine wouldn't spontaneously regenerate from something like a bulging disc or a bum oblique that's been bothering me since 2013. I think the odds of that happening, at any age, pale in comparison to a healthy 25 year old Trevor May figuring it out over the first couple months of the season, and are even longer odds compared to someone like Ervin Santana. And you say these bottom shelf types are a better bet to outperform their contracts compared to the high dollar, multi-year players.... This opinion is just kind of assumed around here. I don't know if its a dome holdover or a small-thinking MN trait or if its based upon a study someone did. I would love to read some actual evidence that the market is so inefficient in its valuations of free agents every year.
  4. Willihammer
    And before anyone says "no player is a risk on the DL," look at Peflrey, Nolasco, Colabello, Perkins ended the year with an elbow issue. Kubel was almost certainly still dealing with 2013's leg problems. Players don't pipe up when they're hurt. Certainly a player on a 1 year make good contract isn't going to.
  5. Willihammer
    Do we need to do another lap? Any player you put on the 25 man roster likely to perform at a sub-replacement level because of poor health, is a risk.
  6. Willihammer
    You know it when you're in it. If you have to ask yourself whether the player would immediately have to be placed on the DL, for example, you're in the scrap heap. Let's be clear about the health issues. Masterson: suffered oblique injury in fall 2013. Still suffered from in in ST 2014. This caused him to alter his mechanics, causing him to hurt the knee in his pushoff leg. Compensating for that, he hurt his shoulder. That's 3 things. Players with 3 injuries belong on the DL or out of baseball entirely, not on anyone's 25 man roster. Rasmus: Right wrist, Right oblique, Right hammy. Has played 150 games once in 6 years. Textbook case of a player earning the label "injury prone." Rios: 34 with declining production in 2014 - that was before he missed the final 22 games of 2014 with thumb injury.
  7. Willihammer
    Get out of the discard heap?
  8. Willihammer
    I suspect these are all guys who won't be on board with a minor league deal like Kubel was, all but locking whoever signs them into giving them PT and probably suffering for it.
  9. Willihammer
    "Kennys Vargas was told he didn’t have to play this winter, but he wanted to." Good to hear.
  10. Willihammer
    According to this
  11. Willihammer
    According to Masterson, the knee nagged him since the 2nd start of the season. However his sinker velo on the first start was 90.6, right in line with the rest of the year. Perhaps he hurt knee compensating for a third (initial) injury like an ankle or back?
  12. Willihammer
    I disagree. How many times do upside deals deliver sub-replacement level production? They aren't no-risk propositions people make them out to be. I'd rather see a healthy Reynaldo Rodriguez in left field than a gimpy 34 year old Alex Rios.
  13. Willihammer
    Kubel is a year younger with as much upside. Perhaps the Twins should waste another 176 PAs on him?
  14. Willihammer
    Were Santana's and Vargas's developments harmed? What about Colabello and Parmelee, do they need more time in the minors? I agree that as a rule, its not smart to plan on prospects to fill out your starting roster. On the other hand, you have to look at prospects on a case by case basis. The Twins should know better than anyone that minor league success or failure isn't an absolute determinant of MLB success or failure, and some guys will be ready before their OPS reaches a certain threshold while plenty of guys are never going to be MLB players no matter how much they dominate the minors. All I'm saying is if Rosario shares whatever characteristics that players in the former camp have, then the Twins should take their foot off the brake and press the gas just like they did with Santana and Vargas because clearly those two benefited from early promotion (as did the team).
  15. Willihammer
    And hadn't done well there (.268/.311/.381) The fact remains, there was nothing in Santana's MiLB record to suggest he would come up and be the Twins best hitter, but he was. And as mentioned, Vargas was the 2nd best hitter (in a small sample) without even facing AAA pitching first. If Rosario is ready for MLB pitching now (and I have no idea if he is), then he should be taken off the A-AA-AAA Path of MiLB Mastery and promoted as the other two were.
  16. Willihammer
    Maybe it snuck up on him? I've defended Hicks from the public venting from Gardy and Antony but he does seem to be a button pusher. Seriously, he couldn't have finished the season? Especially after missing out last winter (when he was asked to go)? edit: Never mind I misunderstood. Hicks did plan for it, he's only not playing because he was cut I guess. Have Ps & C's reported to camp yet?
  17. Willihammer
    How much BABIP regression will be offset if he can improve on that 23% K rate?
  18. Willihammer
    No no no Parker. Don't you know? Only lefthanders like the ball down in the zone - down and in, that is. Because, well, they're lefthanded, that's why.
  19. Willihammer
    How about the DL? Players don't like to pipe up when they're injured, we know this. We see it every year across the league. Heck Masterson didn't hit the DL til July - 19 starts in. This notion that if a guy is going to drop cleanly off the depth chart before the team falls out of contention seems ungrounded in how these things actually play out. You seem to think the Twins are an exception but we know of at least three players - Colabello, Nolasco, and Peflrey who logged a bunch of playing time while they were hurt just last year. These guys are competitive, they want to play. Certainly a guy on a one year make good contract is going to want to play too.
  20. Willihammer
    Sidney Ponson's 7 ERA or Jason Marquis' 8.5 ERA aren't sputtering. These are clear cases that fit the bifucated outcome theory. My point was that not every case is so clear cut. Correia and Liriano are two who fall into that third outcome and in both cases were traded after the team had played itself out of contention. That's the risk nobody seems to be considering. If Justin Masterson's mechanics are out of whack because his knee is bothering him, and he's throwing 90 mph instead of 93, and getting knocked around kinda sorta to a 4.7 ERA or something, those are the kind of performances that amount to a slow bleed over the course of a season.
  21. Willihammer
    A risky assumption. Not everyone turns in a bifurcated outcome where they stink so badly that they can be cut quickly at minimal cost to the W-L record ("Minimal," if you ignore the ~6m price tag on FA wins), or, they bounceback totally a la Kazmir. A third possiblity, maybe the likeliest, is that they just kind of sputter along at mediocre-to-slightly below replacement level value for an extended time. Eg. Dan Haren, Time Linceum, and some of the other bounceback guys that were discussed last offseason.
  22. Willihammer
    Its also worth noting that 2/7 of these guys were being talked about last offseason as bounceback candidates - Johnson and Villanueva. I'll ask again. If the Twins didn't already have Pelfrey and Nolasco under contract, wouldn't they be part of this list too? How many more bounceback candidates do we need?
  23. Willihammer
    4/32 was an example based on the $8m annual figure put forth to be spent on 1 year lotto picks. People get carried away with the bifurcated outcomes. I don't have hard data but the instances of players given 1 year bounceback contracts - starting pitchers coming off injury in particular, who turn in QO-level seasons seem to be very few and far between. Fewer and farther between than the healther, more productive pitchers who earn similar AAV's with longer term commitments, or that would be my guess. The market - particularly for starting pitching, isn't so inefficient that 1 year steals are just waiting around to be signed every offseason. Heck, finding a guy as productive as Hughes has been at 3/24 is extremely rare.
  24. Willihammer
    Seems like a great defensive replacement, pinch runner to have on the bench. He should not be in competition with Hicks or Rosario for a roster spot, IMO.
  25. Willihammer
    How often do these sort of players - pitchers, specifically, hit? Without knowing that, it seems hasty to say the Twins should be in on one of these contracts every year for ~$8m per. If the hit rate is less than say, your average 4 yr/32m contract, maybe its better to just ink one of those every 4 years instead?
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