Willihammer

Evidently the pick-and-trade is a fairly common maneuver with the Rule 5. For example, the 3rd pick in the 1999 rule five draft, Damian Rolls, was also part of a pre-arranged trade. I wasn't going to go through everyone to determine who was immediately traded after being drafted, so for the purposes of this post, Santana sticks as a trade. I forgot that we are looking at post 1 here. The 3rd post (probably could have condensed the whole thing into that post really) is already up in the Blog section. It uses combined pitcher-position player figures and compares them to the league average as suggested by Kavan. Acquiring Talent the Twins Way: Terry Ryan vs. the AL (part 3 of 3) - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum

Yep, Nathan, Liriano, Gomez, Bonser etc are all included in the trade total. So is Johan. I was unable to find a good explanation for the arrangement of that deal. What I understand is, the Twins had first pick in the Rule 5, but rather than drafting Santana stright up, they took someone the Marlins wanted and then immediately traded him to the Marlins who had the 2nd pick and took Johan ???

The Bill Smith question is a good one. I decided not to really dive into whatever differences might have occured in the Smith era mainly because it would be difficult to extrapolate how much of the results would be Smith's doing and how much would be holdover effects from Terry Ryan's doing 1995-2007.

If anyone wants to sift through the tables you can download the data here: https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5pIzP28qdp-VHF3QlRXMndnR2s/edit?usp=sharing There are a few extraneous tabs that I forgot to cleanup before uploading. If you go to the tab "combined salarywar pivot" you can filter by year, acquisition method, etc. Then double click any of the cells in the results to pull a new sheet showing the detail of that column-row, if that makes sense.

@WiseOne: The Twins have actually retained their draftees at a higher rate than the Red Sox. They've paid for 68 player seasons to draftees above and beyond the first 5 team-controlled years (22 players), to Boston's 30 player-seasons (12 players). The Twins have outspent any other AL team on their draftees' salaries, with the exception of the Yankees. The Twins entire model is based around drafting, developing and retaining amateur draft talent. So the Twins were just as aggressive as the BoSox at keeping their good homegrown talents if not moreso. Your point might apply better to the As actually. They've only paid for 6 players to stay beyond their first 5 team-controlled years (Chavez, GIambi, Suzuki, Harden, Zito, Crosby). 19 player seasons. They've relied more heavily on trades than the Draft (263 player seasons to 237). Its remarkable, really. They're model is based on trading away home grown talents while they're in their primes and yet they've still managed to hold the 3rd best avg. WAR from draftees. Clearly, IMO, these teams are doing something the Twins aren't, or doing something better than the Twins, and not just getting lucky all the time.

Question: who stands more upright at the plate, Wil Myers or Evan Longoria?

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2363-Acquiring-talent-the-Twins-Way-position-players-(part-1-of-3)

Resuming where we left off, we're now going to compare the Twins' successes in the 6 methods of talent acquisition versus the rest of the American League. Part 1: here Part 2: here Data: here TWINS VS AMERICAN LEAGUE 1. Amateur Draft We already know the Twins have acquired the most positional talent and the 2nd most pitching talent from the Amateur draft, as measured by WAR. But roster space is limited. How does the average Amateur Draftee stack up against the rest of the AL? http://i.imgur.com/qLqHjp0.png The big outlier here is the Red Sox, whose draftees have been a half-win better than average. The rest of the AL is grouped fairly closely, with the Twins very much in the middle. Their positional draftees have been .02 WAR worse than average, while their pitchers have been .09 WAR better. Overall, they're slightly (.07 WAR) better than average at drafting amateur talent under Terry Ryan. 2. Amateur Free Agency Overall, the average Amateur Drafted-pitcher is worth .78 WAR. The average Amateur Free Agent pitcher? .80 WAR. For position players - 1.25 WAR for the average Draftee, and 1.10 for the average Amateur FA. However the distribution of Amateur FA talent has been very uneven. http://i.imgur.com/i8CHiMM.png The Twins are 2nd to last in average WAR, but its not really for a lack of trying. For example, the Twins and White Sox have both signed 16 Amateur FAs. The Twins have gotten just 11 WARs to the White Sox's 61.2. What gives? http://i.imgur.com/CsRPX8u.png Couple of things. 1. The Twins didn't dip their toes in the Amateur FA water till 2000 when they acquired Luis Rivas - 1 year after the Sox acquired Carlos Lee, and 3 years after they got Magglio Ordonez. Culprit no. 1 is late timing. Culprit 2, it appears, is the Twins' reluctance to hand out signing bonuses and multiyear contracts, combined possibly with poor scouting. After the Twins became active in Amateur Free Agency, talents like Alexei Ramirez, Fernando Rodney, Joaquin Benoit, Felix Hernandez, Roberto Hernandez, Rafael Soriano, Omar Infante, Victor Martinez, managed to fall to the competition. Some signed contracts with half-million or greater bonuses, others signed for much less. In general, the pricier contracts went to better players. 3. Rule 5 Draft The results of the Rule 5 Draft are curious. They ought to be skewed by a self-selecting sample. Players who are able to stick on their team's 40 man roster for an entire year should be pretty good right? Wrong. Only 3 of the 67 players who "stuck" on the drafting team's rosters have posted cumulative WARs of 5 or more - a rate of 4.4%. A worse rate than the Amateur Draft (16%), Trades (15%), Amateur Free Agency (14%), and Free Agency (9.1%). Only Waiver pickups produce 5+ WARs at a worse rate (3.4%). 4. Trades Total player-seasons from trades outnumber all other avanues of talent acquisition except the Draft (3094 to 3274). Unlike the Draft, however, there is not a lot of variance in the output from tradees: http://i.imgur.com/6mFJJKG.png The Twins average exactly 1 WAR per season from players returned in trade. This puts them 0.07 WAR above average in the AL, boosted again by the acquisition of Johan Santana. In fact, only 3 trades have worked out better - Pedro Martinez for Carl Pavano and Tony Armas in 1997 in a deal between the Expos and Red Sox; ARod to the Yankees for Alfonso Soriano and Joaquin Arias; and Miguel Cabrera (and Dontrelle Willis) from the Marlins to the Tigers in exchange for Dallas Trahern (minors), Burke Badenhop, Frankie De La Cruz, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and Mike Rabelo in 2007. 5. Waivers The Twins have relied on Waiviers for 35 player-seasons since 1995, 3rd most in the AL. They have not, however, gotten as much production from those players as other teams. http://i.imgur.com/btG8Vuw.png The White Sox have only taken 10 waiver pickups since 1995, but gotten some decent production out of 4 of them - De Aza (4.5 WAR), Rios (6.1), Bobby Jenks (8.7) and Phil Humber (2.3). For the rest of the AL, waivers are the least reliable method for acquiring talent, and the Twins are no exception. Of the 20 waiver claims the Twins have made since 1995, 10 have produced negative WAR. At 7.5 WAR, Matt Guerrier is by far the best of the 20 waiver pickups since 1995. 6. Free Agency The Twins have signed 104 Free Agents since 1995. On average, the FA player-season has been worth just .42 WAR, last among AL teams (excluding the Astros). http://i.imgur.com/BVJ7w3K.png As with Amateur Free Agency, the production from Free Agents has mirrored prices. http://i.imgur.com/ChaTiAd.png The Yankees have proven that with enough money, you can build a roster from free agency. Since 1995, their FAs have produced at a clip of 1.1 WAR player season - identical to the Twins average Amateur Draftee - and it only cost them $981 million to get it. On the other hand, the Red Sox, Angels, Athletics, Rangers, and White Sox have gotten tremendous value through the Draft and Amateur Free Agency whereas the Twins have gotten average talent out of the Draft and almost no talent out of Amateur Free Agency. What are Red Sox scouts doing that the Twins' aren't? Does Terry Ryan know? Is he willing to change? Is he the guy to diversify and uncover new pockets of talent before others get to them, or will he keep on the boom and bust cycle with each crop of Amateur Draftees?

http://i.imgur.com/1keMABH.gif

http://i.imgur.com/X5WcVub.gif

Busted!

http://i.imgur.com/8HjkbXn.gif

Maybe, yeah. I'd just as soon acquire guys reasonably expected to succeed on the road too.

Sure, if you're ok with guys who posted greater than 4.5 xFIPs. I cutoff the list at 4.5 and 20 starts, thinking (hoping) we might shoot a little higher than that this offseason.

What did Maholm do to get him going and when will the Brewers be in town next year?

Obviously a SF pimp in some kind of trial setting.

Its all in the angle

You got me. I admit it, (sigh) that's me.

Correia pitching? Better lengthen the foul poles

Not to mention, Chris Sale had to pitch against the Tigers. 5 Times!

I'd like to see the Twins ripoff the Pirates formula. Sign a defensive-oriented pitch framer to catch, then sign or trade for SPs whose ERAs are out of whack from their xFIPs. Among the FAs whose ERA/xFIPs in 2013 were out of whack: [TABLE=width: 500] [TABLE=width: 449] Name Age IP ERA xFIP ERA-xFIP Edinson Volquez[TD=align: right]29 [TD=align: right]165.1[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.77[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.07[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.7[/TD] Roberto Hernandez[TD=align: right]32[/TD] [TD=align: right]151[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.89[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.56[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.33[/TD] Dan Haren[TD=align: right]32[/TD] [TD=align: right]162.2[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.87[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.68[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.19[/TD] Aaron Harang[TD=align: right]35[/TD] [TD=align: right]137.1[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.57[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.43[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.14[/TD] Joe Saunders[TD=align: right]32[/TD] [TD=align: right]183[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.26[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.23[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.03[/TD] Tim Lincecum[TD=align: right]29[/TD] [TD=align: right]190.2[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.44[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.56[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.88[/TD] Scott Kazmir[TD=align: right]29[/TD] [TD=align: right]152[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.14[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.43[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.71[/TD] Phil Hughes[TD=align: right]27[/TD] [TD=align: right]143.2[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.07[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.37[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.7[/TD] A.J. Burnett[TD=align: right]36[/TD] [TD=align: right]183[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.39[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.92[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.47[/TD] Paul Maholm[TD=align: right]31[/TD] [TD=align: right]146[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.44[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.97[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.47[/TD] Tim Hudson[TD=align: right]37[/TD] [TD=align: right]131.1[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.97[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.56[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.41[/TD] Matt Garza[TD=align: right]29[/TD] [TD=align: right]150[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.9[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.71[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.19[/TD] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TABLE] Plenty of talent in that group IMO

In Part 1, we looked at the Twins history of acquiring positional talent via the Amateur Draft, Amateur Free Agency, the Rule 5 Draft, Trades, Waivers, and Free Agency, during the Terry Ryan era (1995-2013). Here we will do the same for pitchers. PITCHERS 1. Amateur Draft Since 1995, the Twins trail only the Toronto Blue Jays in their reliance on the Amateur Draft for pitching talent, getting 136 player-seasons from 39 pitchers, good for 120 WAR. Notably, Brad Radke owns a full third (45.5 WAR) of that total. Overall, the average Twins Amateur Draftee has pitched to a .88 WAR season. But take Radke out of the equation, and the average drops to .60 WAR. http://i.imgur.com/MG4siqR.png 2. Amateur Free Agency The Twins have given 24 player-seasons to Amateur FA pitchers since 1995. Juan Rincon and Jose Mijares share the top 7 highest WAR seasons. Others in this category include Liam Hendriks, Grant Balfour, Michael Nakamura, Rob Delaney, and Cole DeVries. Together they average a 0.29 WAR season. http://i.imgur.com/73gC0Tm.png 3. Rule 5 Draft The five Rule 5 Twins player-seasons since 1995 are owned by Scott Diamond (3), Ryan Pressly (1) and Travis Baptist (1). Together they have pitched 432.1 innings for a WAR of 1.9. http://i.imgur.com/9ni3gmd.png 4. Trades Trades account for 90 (pitcher) player-seasons since 1995. Of all other AL teams to have existed for the period 1995-2013, only the Angels have been less-reliant on trades to fill their pitching staffs. But, the Twins own the best WAR-average at 1.36, boosted by the acquisitions of Johan Santana (35.4 WAR over 8 seasons), Eric Milton (14.7/6), Joe Nathan (18.3/7), Joe Mays (10.6/6), Francisco Liriano (9.9/6). http://i.imgur.com/uVp33wI.png 5. Waivers Jeremy Guthrie owns the distinction of most productive pitcher acquired by Waivers since 1995. He was worth 16.5 WARs for the Orioles from 2007-2011. The next closest is Darren O'Day at under 10 WAR. For the Twins, 13 waiver-wire pitchers have been worth 7.6 WAR over 25 player-seasons. Matt Guerrier (7.5 WAR) has been the most productive pickup, with the other 12 players producing just 0.1 WAR. http://i.imgur.com/2CN4lbQ.png 6. Free Agency Bob Tewksbury remains the best free agent pickup for the Twins. He produced 6.5 WAR at a price of 3.75 million over the 1997-1998 seasons. Overall, Twins FA pitchers average .47 WAR per season, good for 8th in the AL http://i.imgur.com/VmwNq1Y.png So, in order of average WAR, the Twins most successful means of acquiring pitching talent since 1995 are: 1. Trades (1.36) 2. The Amateur Draft (.88) 3. Free Agency (.47) 4. The Rule 5 Draft (.38) 5. Waivers (.30) 6. Amateur Free Agency (.29)

They're trolling

I get that, but some guys will change teams this year, for the prospect of more money and/or a better shot at the World Series. After all, that's why no one will sign here (or so its said) - we're not likely to be competitive, so is it still wise to cultivate this reputation as a team that won't trade anyone mid-contract? If Bartolo Colon gets another $3m offer from the As, a $6m offer from the Angels, and a $10m offer from the Marlins, then my guess is he will pack his bags for one of the two other places. But if the Twins come in and say "we'll match the $6, and in 6 months trade you to a team with a minimum winning percentage .xxx (barring the Twins aren't themselves competitive)" wouldn't that be at least a little appealing? I'm assuming these sort of limited no-trade clauses can be worked out, maybe they can't.

I wonder about that. The sense I get from the FO is that they consider the sign-and-trade a backwards way of dealing. But if I were Bartolo Colon, Hiroki Kuroda, or A. J. Burnett, I'd probably jump at a 1 year deal to a rebuilder who tells me up front "if we're not in the wild card race at mid-season, then we're going to trade you into a pennant race for prospects."