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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    I appreciate the chasm between lousy defenders and elite ones like Heyward. But for purposes of who the Twins could sign in free agency, here is how Hunter's 2014 season compares to the other OFers on MLBTR's top 50 FA leaderboard (I've also included Heyward just to emphasize what an outlier he is). I threw out innings in CF and any player-position combo under 200 innings. Anyone care to guess who is who?
  2. Willihammer
    That's certainly something to keep in mind too. An out on a 190 foot foul fly ball can't be worth as much as a 400 footer to the gap. Not that playing deep is always the optimal spot to be...
  3. Willihammer
    Makes sense. He can still be traded, he just has to approve it first. I think SD Buhr has it.
  4. Willihammer
    Wherever Arcia ends up, his long term spot should be left field IMO. Fewer fly balls hit to left than right.
  5. Willihammer
    Headers.
  6. Willihammer
    I'd be fine with a 1 year deal for Hunter. He had a decent year, healthy. Trade him to a contender if/when the team falls out of contention like with Morales, or if Rosario or Sano forces the issue.
  7. Willihammer
    If Sano has the glove to stick at 3B, then I think you go year to year with Plouffe and plan on trading him in the next 1-2 years. If Sano doesn't have a 3B glove, then Plouffe is miles away the best 3B in the system, right? Someone mentioned Brandon Phillips (might have been the Dozier thread) as an example of a premature extension for a player who is now in decline. Has anyone looked at the Reds system? I count one middle infielder among the top 10 prospects - some guy named Alex Blandino with a 2017 ETA. Correct me if I'm wrong but nobody is challenging Phillips for the starting 2B job this year. Further, if the Reds hadn't locked him up when they did, they'd be paying more AAV to keep him on for longer years, or else gone shopping in FA and paid the market rate for someone else in decline or fast approaching it. On the other hand, maybe a team like the A's were able to part with Donaldson because 5/5 top prospects are infielders, including two 3B's and a SS. Obviously they got Lawrie in return too so they are 4 strong in that dept. But, after Plouffe, the Twins really only have Sano. Point is, if the Twins determine that Sano doesn't have the glove for 3B then they are stuck with Plouffe. Certainly for 2015-2016 and easily could be longer. Might as well lock him up while they can still pay a discounted rate. edit: assuming of course TR continues to rely on the draft and amateur FA for acquiring 3B talent, and not trade.
  8. Willihammer
    MLBTR saying M's are going to DH Cruz. Still looking for an OFer
  9. Willihammer
    Seems like they're trying to fit the neighborhood better. Lot of young, single, condo owners with cash who like to party around there.
  10. Willihammer
    Now that you mention it, yes. According to Heyman, Hamels can be traded to: Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, Braves, Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers But that's what 3 team trades were invented for right?
  11. Willihammer
    Great movie? Or greatest movie?
  12. Willihammer
    What if there were a prospect - Alex Meyer, maybe, who the Phillies were very high on and the Twins were not?
  13. Willihammer
    I like the idea as a realistic alternative to signing a 7/200 contract for a pitcher of Jon Lester's caliber, or for giving up way to much talent to acquire a ~24 year old cost controlled potential stud like Shelby Miller. Bear with me... On the one hand, Hamels is owed a lot of money, but that should lower the Phillies' asking price in terms of tradeable talent. But he isn't owed so much money that it should put him out of the Twins' price range (OK maybe its not that realistic). He's the ace that splits the difference between a high FA price and a high talent price. He does have a history with his left shoulder that's worrisome. But, Hamels has still started 30+ games for 6 straight seasons, and his velo is actually trending upwards.
  14. Willihammer
    I think if the Twins wait another year then they are looking at a Seager type extension money. At that point its almost, why bother? There isn't much money to be saved in extensions after a player cements himself as a solid big league regular anymore.
  15. Willihammer
    Eh, give it a year.
  16. Willihammer
    No, we're not. Read the links.
  17. Willihammer
    Kemp is too good for the Dodgers to part with IMO, esp. if they lose Hanley. I think they'll end up keeping Ethier and Crawford for lack of interest, and deal one/both of Schebler/Pederson instead.
  18. Willihammer
    Per an anonymous google source, he doesn't have a NT clause and his 10/5 goes into effect after next season.
  19. Willihammer
    You would think not. But if you read the links in Parker's article, you'll find no mention of working up in the zone, in a positive way. Its always down down gotta stay down. Even for Scott Baker, who was more successful up in the zone.
  20. Willihammer
    I think Gardy-Andy's idea of a "good strike" was the low strike. As if simply keeping the ball low kept the ball in the park. Then to read something like Parker's article, "On Pitching and Philosophy," you find out they might have been completely wrong and counterproductive. I hope the new guy is more open to challenges to his philosophy.
  21. Willihammer
    May is a bad example, I forgot he has one option year left. It boils down to what you think is a smart allocation of roster spots and playing time and I think I've made my opinion more than clear that hoping Brett Anderson's bulging disc regenerates itself, or that Justin Masterson recovers from 3 different injuries in a single offseason, are a fool's gamble.
  22. Willihammer
    I'm not the one presuming he can outsmart the market. People think 1 year guaranteed bounceback contracts on injured players is a smart gamble. That opinion underemphasizes the likelihood of sub-replacement level production and overemphasizes the upside, and the proof is in the price. The Twins are already hoping for bouncebacks from 3-4 players. Therefore, what this team needs is to take on as little additional risk as possible, not waste precious roster spots on players with very long odds to reach their upside. Get out of the bargain bin, in other words.
  23. Willihammer
    "If healthy" is such a huge caveat, it should preclude any kind of guaranteed deal. We're talking about 25 roster spots, not 53. I don't know what kind Wolverine bodies you people inhabit, I know mine wouldn't spontaneously regenerate from something like a bulging disc or a bum oblique that's been bothering me since 2013. I think the odds of that happening, at any age, pale in comparison to a healthy 25 year old Trevor May figuring it out over the first couple months of the season, and are even longer odds compared to someone like Ervin Santana. And you say these bottom shelf types are a better bet to outperform their contracts compared to the high dollar, multi-year players.... This opinion is just kind of assumed around here. I don't know if its a dome holdover or a small-thinking MN trait or if its based upon a study someone did. I would love to read some actual evidence that the market is so inefficient in its valuations of free agents every year.
  24. Willihammer
    And before anyone says "no player is a risk on the DL," look at Peflrey, Nolasco, Colabello, Perkins ended the year with an elbow issue. Kubel was almost certainly still dealing with 2013's leg problems. Players don't pipe up when they're hurt. Certainly a player on a 1 year make good contract isn't going to.
  25. Willihammer
    Do we need to do another lap? Any player you put on the 25 man roster likely to perform at a sub-replacement level because of poor health, is a risk.
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