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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Interesting. I would have guessed more followed the Joe Nathan / Glen Perkins path of failed starterdom. Maybe taking him out of the rotation now isn't cause for concern as far as Jay's prospects of being a good reliever go after all.
  2. Willihammer
    Question- can anyone name a dominant bullpen arm that did not advance to at least AAA as a starting pitcher?
  3. Willihammer
    Article on Yoan Moncada from last week. http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/18975183/chicago-white-sox-prospect-yoan-moncada-prepping-major-league-debut
  4. Willihammer
    In Brock's scenario you get Pressly up same time as you would otherwise. After the first baserunner gets into scoring position probably. So, if the next batter doesn't load the bases, but hits an RBI double, the score's now -2 but the high leverage guy Pressly's already warming. He pitches, but the lineup changes to -2 until the score changes again. Play the odds. A runner on second base is going to need, on average, 2-3 batters to step to the plate before someone gets a hit. About a quarter of the time the first guy will get him in.
  5. Willihammer
    I won't speak for Brock but what I'd do is use score as proxy for leverage. Tie game being the highest, +1 next, -1, next, and so on. With a "lineup" for each score. Pressly and Rogers are #1 and 2 respectively in a tie or +1 score. Double barreled warm up with whoever matches up to batter handedness entering first. This is assuming the opponent is a conventional L-R-L-R lineup and not heavily platooned against the starter. In that event keep the opposite handed guy on the bench obviously. In a +/- 3 run game, ie. low leverage, the lineup would be virtually flip flopped. With Belisle or Tonkin first out of the gate. Basically, pitch to the score.
  6. Willihammer
    Only 5? We're comin!
  7. Willihammer
    Timing is a fool's game I know but it really seems like this latest run-up was built on political hopes and dreams that seem unlikely to materialize. I'm saving as much cash as I can afford to.
  8. Willihammer
    http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/e9/e965339ef2f7ec69cd723354f029a41d30c64e75d91374cb6f7900631386feaa.jpg
  9. Willihammer
    Chargois' spring: 8.1 IP, 16H, 2HR, 3 BB, 2HBP, 8 K.
  10. Willihammer
    And Hughes is coming from a park that inflates LH power (New Yankees Stadium) vs Santiago who is coming from a park that suppresses RH home runs.
  11. Willihammer
    Tomas Froemming with an early bid for "most organized multi-quote reply of 2017!" Nicely done. I think you make some good points. Between the framing, park factor, outfield defense, hi/low strike etc Santiago is going to be one of the better analytical narratives of 2017. Look forward to revising his results later on.
  12. Willihammer
    Cool pics, and look at that resolution! Is that one of those Kodak Premo's I spotted in last winter's Sears catalogue?
  13. Willihammer
    He'll get away with 19 pitches up there then on the 20th one is cranked for a double. "That's why you gotta keep the ball down!"
  14. Willihammer
    Awesome job. Really hopeful about Castro's defense.
  15. Willihammer
    IMO the Twins should be careful not to throw out the baby with the bathwater. College pitcher throw out of the bullpen as underclassmen almost always. The best ones usually move to the rotation by their junior year, but not always. For example the Yankees drafted a junior in the 5th round in 2015 out of Dallas Baptist named Chance Adams who never cracked the rotation. He's now dominating the minors as a starter. Brock Stewart's another guy (6th rounder). College coaches aren't perfect and certainly most of them favor seniority to varying degrees. There's an inefficiency at some schools, but the Twins need to do a better job of identifying those cases and probably not take those risks until later rounds.
  16. Willihammer
    Santiago's a fly ball guy too, so you'd think any advantage in PF and OF defense would be amplified.
  17. Willihammer
    Katoh likes Granite quite a bit: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-24-prospects-minnesota-twins/
  18. Willihammer
    Is it possible to give players the comfort of routine while also being friendly to analytics, that's the question I'm getting at. I think its possible to do both, it just requires the manager to define roles based on the components of leverage and not innings, save situation, etc.
  19. Willihammer
    That's where communication comes in. A good manager, IMO, gives players insight into his thought process so that they are looking at score, days rest, spot in the opponents order, handedness, etc, all the components of leverage, so that everyone is on the same page.
  20. Willihammer
    Perkins' point in the interview is that he prefers to have a clearly defined role to one that changes day to day based on game situations. Be it closer, 8th inning, 7th inning, or long relief. He talks about adrenaline and preparation and how routine helps during a 162 game season. Its a fair point but I tend to think a more communicative manager might be able to address some of these concerns and get more flexibility out of his players.
  21. Willihammer
    The Twins have a decent track record when it comes to first extensions, and a terrible one when it comes to second extensions, so I'm probably biased. But I wouldn't extend Dozier a second time for the kind of deal I think he'd want- something in the 4 year 60+m range I reckon. Too many times it seems to bite us in the ass (Morneau, Mauer, Perkins, Hughes come to mind.)
  22. Willihammer
    This is all perfectly consistent with the Twins standing policy of developing players in one role in the minors, and changing it at the ML level. Don't see what all the hubbubs about.
  23. Willihammer
    I understand the conventional wisdom and agree that speed should serve as a tiebreaker if we're talking about two similarly productive bats. But we're not. If Buxton turns into a better hitter than Dozier I'll be right there with you asking that he bat higher in the order. That is a huge if. In the more likely event Buxton isn't the better hitter then having him bat at the top of the order comes at a direct cost of PAs to better hitters, namely Dozier and probably Sano and 1-2 others at minimum. Look at any team season in baseball history and you will find a descending number of PAs in the lineup, usually 15-20 PA's per slot.
  24. Willihammer
    Do you think Buxton should bat leadoff before or after he deserves to? Do you think he deserves to now? There is a tradeoff for moving hitters around in the lineup. An example, the 1998 Twins. http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/SNG0X Otis Nixon played center field and was a "speed" guy, so he owned the leadoff spot while Matt Lawton played (mostly) in a corner and batted third or lower. Lawton hit .864. Nixon hit .705. The leadoff man had 66 more PAs than the 3 hitter. Almost a hundred more than the #6 guy, where Lawton spent 29 games. I don't know how many runs batting Nixon ahead of Lawton cost the Twins that year, but it certainly cost them some. In the first inning they scored 90 runs. In the 4th and 7th they scored 95 and 98. Why? Could it be that Nixon got a much smaller share of the PAs in those innings? In every other sport the best players are given the most minutes. Not in baseball. Baseball is uniquely able to think itself into keeping its best players on the bench longer than absolutely required. Its mind boggling.
  25. Willihammer
    Or literally, anyone else on the team, with the possible exception of Castro.
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