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Linus

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Everything posted by Linus

  1. Linus
    To include Perkins in any of this is crazy. A high upside left hander who has been close to dominant out of the pen for a couple of over the hill placeholders is not a good deal. What is the fascination around here with washed up, aged pitching? I'm all for signing somebody that will be here 4 years from now but otherwise................
  2. Linus
    Oh my, this team needs a 36 year old free agent pitcher like it needs a hole in the head. If you want to complain about Brandon McCarthy or Sanchez go right ahead as they actually could help us when we need it. But please don't trot out this stuff over a guy that just is not a logical part of the Twins future.
  3. Linus
    I would consider those major question marks, not blemishes.
  4. Linus
    The worst part of the shortstop problem was how bad those two deals really were. Smith was crazy to trade Garza for Delmon straight up, much less throw Bartlett in on the deal. It drives me crazy that bill Smith traded for Hardy full well knowing that he was arbitration eligible the following year and was going to get more money than he was willing to pay. He traded Gomez for a one year rental.
  5. Linus
    TR should have spent the last 3 months getting his ducks in a row and picking off the low-hanging fruit in the month of November to show the league and the fanbase the seriousness of his intent. As another poster just said, this club needs both quantity and quality. A couple of legit, albeit lower-impact major leaguers should already be on the 2013 roster via trade or FA. That Baker signed elsewhere implies either of the following to me: a) Ryan has seriously underestimated the price of starting pitching or every pitcher that receives "a final offer from the Twins "will immediately shop it" and sign elsewhere for slightly more, thus forcing the Twins to make "a blow-away" offer in order to sign a pitcher. Or that he didn't want to use part of his money on an injury prone, inconsistent starter coming off Tommy John surgery who likely won't be ready to start the season and whose effectiveness is a complete unknown going forward. Everybody seems to be glossing over that many guys that have TJ never come back even close to what they once were. This might work out for the Cubs but let's get over the idea that this signing is some lead pipe cinch for success.
  6. Linus
    Before the inevitable vemom is spewed, they would be looking to bring him back on the cheap with the idea that he would contend for a 4 or 5 spot. Would you rather have Frankie, Deduno or DeVries filling those spots?
  7. Linus
    What I find interesting is that 3 weeks before the end of the regular season, Detriot didn't look like a particularly good example of anything. They looked like a high priced, poorly constructed, under achieving, deeply flawed team about to finish 2nd to a much less talented team. Thanks to a collapse by the White Sox, and a nice post season run, they are now a team to emulate? Give Detriot credit for spending money and having things work out for them, at least in 2012. Whether things will continue to work for them remains to be seen. They could very easily find themselves saddled with injured/unproductive players with unmovable, huge, long term contracts. Sort of like what some people say about the Twins and Mauer. As far as the Twins go, they have gotten into a position where they will have to acquire starting pitching, and much of it will likely come through free agency. That is risky and if you end up handing out large multi year contracts, has a good chance of both not working out due injury or underperformance and making future moves difficult. There seems to be a lot of love for the Tigers here. If the Sox wouldn't have spit the bit in September they wouldn't have even made the playoffs. Lets acknowledge a whole bunch of this is a crapshoot.
  8. Linus
    If he is healthy and it is a minor league invite, the Twins should jump all over it. Like him or not, he was consistent, competed hard and knows how to pitch. There is no way the Twins are filling the 4 open starting spots with free agents and trades. I'll take a healthy Pavano over most everything they threw out there at the end of last year.
  9. Linus
    Um, yes you are impatient.....its not even Thanksgiving.
  10. Linus
    God I hope this is sarcasm......
  11. Linus
    And then we have no way to bring in pitching. Misuse of a scarce resource - Span is one of the few chips we have to solve this mess.
  12. Linus
    Great takes all the way around on this post. Every level in the minors is a filter that weeds out a few more guys that will never make it to the big leagues. So I agree that production (and level) should matter in these lists. I think Seth makes a great point about the high picks with signing bonuses. Between the money and the credibility they laid on the line when they picked them high, those guys probably get an extra chance or two to succeed. The hard part is you never know what level it is that finally knocks a guy out. For example, I think Joe Benson isn't going to make it. He got to a level where his plate discipline was exposed and unless he fixes it, will go no further.
  13. Linus
    I think this thread makes a great point that needs to be interjected into most all the threads and posts here. That is, that very few prospects, even highly rated ones, make it to the big leagues much less turn into stars. I haven't done the exact math but approximately, for every 10 minor leaguers only 1 makes it to the big leagues. Or another way to put it is that if you think you have several great prospects (ie the Twins minor league outfielders) the odds would dictate that maybe one or two at the most end up really being a good MLB caliber player. So, when people post plans that include every prospect making the big leagues, they are dreaming.
  14. Linus
    If I'm the Twins, I start him in Rochester for two reasons: they want to limit his innings, and to not start the clock on his service time. Bring him up in June or whatever the timeframe is and we get an extra year of control, which could be huge if he turns out to be a quality MLB starter.
  15. Linus
    Escobar's career OPS is .743. As recently as 2011 he put up a .290/.363/.413 line. Were he to approach either of those numbers, that is NOT marginally better than Floriman, and most likely not marginally better than Dozier (who probably isn't in the SS conversation anymore, rightly or wrongly.) "Not much better" is, in the end, "better." Small differences add up, particularly in major league baseball. The question is not whether Escobar has been, in the past, better than anything the Twins are likely to run out at SS in 2013. If he did, he'd easily be worth $5M. The question is, will he perform at past levels. Let me re-phrase my point: Escobar is clearly better than anything the Twins currently have. How much will depend on how much he returns to form and how much whoever the Twins throw out there improves. My point is that the extra $5 million is WAY more valuable being spend on more / better pitching than to bring in Escobar. Twins are far better off with better pitching and not having him. Now if money is no object, fine but that is clearly not the situation.
  16. Linus
    The real problem isn't homophobia or any other phobia. Plain and simple, his production is not worth $4.5 million more than Floriman or Dozier. He is not an elite player and the Twins need the extra money for pitching. The problem with most middle of the road FA signings is that they are only marginally better than players that cost substantially less, yet teams get very excited about them and end up with players making mutiple millions per year that just dont perform much better than guys making the minimum.
  17. Linus
    So you really think TR, who has won multiple "executive of the year" awards is just sitting around waiting for things to happen and see if guys fall in his lap? Some of the posts here just don't make sense. I understand being impatient for the plan to unfold but people just have to wait a second before they cast judgment. Seth, you are a great blogger but the idea that signing torii should make the Twins fold up their tent and go home is just dumb. The truth is the Twins should have a similar goal whether they are building for next year or 2014 or 15 - add quality, longer term pitching. To think they are going to trade off all their assets for prospects and they will be all better in 2014 is tenuous at best since they have exactly one in house pitching prospect (Hermsonn) at AA or above. They could trade away all available assets, miss on their assessment and end up with nothing. Anybody remember the Stahoviak / Becker years? They need quality, young(er) pitching: this year, next year 2015 and beyond. If they don't solve that, Hicks, Arcia et al will not make a difference.
  18. Linus
  19. Linus
  20. Linus
    I'm a Torii fan but the fact is he is no longer an elite player - too many people are basing this on what they remember about Torii, not what he will be next year as a 38 year old. He's clearly an upgrade over Delmon in the field - at the plate it will be a wash. This improves the Tigers but this simply is not a signing that makes your opponents completely change course.
  21. Linus
    The question really needs to be "why didn't the Twins make this trade with Florida?" as there is only one owner crazy enough to do this. There are no other deals like this out there to be had. It makes a splash but I'm not sure it helps as much as the hype will indicate. Johnson is soon to be a free agent, Buerhle got big money at a late age and Reyes got big money and is already not living up to it.
  22. Linus
    I used to think that trading Willingham was a good idea, now I am not so sure. Detroit is going to own this division for a few more years and slap hitters are not going to beat them regularly. I like a good OBP but we need the power Josh provides. If this move doesn't cement that the Twins should build for 2014 and 2015, I don't know what else would convince Twins fans... Really Seth? Torii Hunter? - he of 37 years old, declining range and 16 homers has pushed you over the edge into throwing in the towel for next year? I usually am on the same page as your takes but I don't get this one. Delmon is likely to put up better offensive numbers next year (we won't go there on defense). At $13 mil per, they can have him. There is a better than even chance that one or both of the years is a complete waste either due to injury or just plain old losing the skills due to age.
  23. Linus
    I changed my mind. Garza and Barlett for Delmon was worse. Wait, I changed my mind again. Johan for nothing was worse.......... I guess we shouldn't be shocked that we ended up losing 90+ games two years in a row.
  24. Linus
    Ramos for Capps was the worst trade of Bill Smith's tenure - which is saying something. Horrible deal and everyone knew it at the time - top prospect for a guy that wasn't much better than what we had, who would also be eligible for arb. the next year. However, none of that was Matt Capps' fault. He seems like a standup guy who just doesn't have enough stuff to be a dominant pitcher. That doesn't mean he can't contribute to a solid bullpen, it just has to be at the right price and not as a closer.
  25. Linus
    I think what TR is really saying is that we have to dramatically increase the number of quality innings pitched regardless of whether or not it comes from the starters or the bullpen. He probably feels the task is so difficult that he is going to have make an all out effort to improve both starters and relievers significantly - and it still might not be enough. As far as MI, my guess is that he feels that at least he has some young players to choose from that may get better and solve the problem acceptably. This logic holds some water when you consider the FA options are not great and you would have to overpay to get them (I would like Scutaro however). He knows he has no realistic bullpen options in the system, other than the ones that are already there. So, I agree with the approach.
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