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Linus

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Everything posted by Linus

  1. Linus
    Wow. That is all I can say to this one. Wow.
  2. Linus
    In his recent Q&A with season ticket holders, TR is throwing out the possibility of Sano playing the outfield. This is somewhat intriguing as the concensus here is that we need another outfielder, that we all assumed would come from free agency. Is Plouffe strong enough at 3rd base to move Sano? Is Sano ever be good enough defensively at any one position that it really matters where he ends up? Is Sano at 3rd base substantially more valuable than Sano in left field? What say you TD posters?
  3. Linus
    I believe what most people are saying in this regard is "prove that you are ready for the next level by showing that you have nothing left to learn or gain at the current level". Of course, nobody knows how they will do in the majors until they actually are there. If you can't do it in the minors, you won't do it in the majors. I would start Sano in AAA, and if he performs at a high level over the first couple of months, bring him up. Buxton needs longer - I doubt we see him with the Twins this year.
  4. Linus
    Sure, some guys might get it but as the QO continues to rise (15% increase just this year) the number of players receiving the offer will go down. For example, I think it is reasonable to think that if the QO was $15million+ last year that neither Drew nor Morales would have received the offer. Bottom line is this: under the new system, most free agents will be completely free which was not the case before when even a "type B" free agent had compensation tied to their signing. As the QO gets steeper and steeper, it makes it much harder for clubs to risk extending the offer unless the player is an elite free agent. Ergo, I think you will see relatively few players extended the QO going forward.
  5. Linus
    Mike, we agree! I'm actually kind of tired of Mackey's simplistic observations - he's so predictable that he is like Sid except he is 28 or something. The basis of all success is having a steady stream of talent coming up from the minor league system. When that doesn't happen (regardless of the reason) you are in trouble because you cannot supplement enough through other avenues if your farm system has dried up - its just not possible. Then, if you throw in a few bad trades and some serious injuries, you have the perfect storm that results in 4 90+ loss seasons. The other thing that drives me nuts about some of his observations: if they knew these later round draft picks were going to be major league studs they would have drafted them in the early rounds. Drafting in the later rounds is 20% skill and 80% luck; be happy when it happens but i wouldn't get too carried away that you have some divine ability that others don't have.
  6. Linus
    Actually the system provides no leverage for a team to retain their veteran players except the absolute stars. If you want to use Cuddyer as an example, he won't receive the qualifying offer so he can go out in the marketplace and get the absolute best deal he possibly can with no draft pick compensation of any sort dragging down his value. If the Rockies are crazy enough to extend that offer, Cuddyer would take it in a heartbeat and laugh all the way to the bank. And, for the mega stars, it has no negative baggage because any team willing to sign a Zach Grienke to a mega deal is not going to worry about the draft pick loss as it will be a minor factor in the overall scheme of things. Bottom line is this: going forward very few players will receive the QO which will give them the best chance to sign a contract for the absolute maximum the market will bear.
  7. Linus
    That's the whole point - no veteran that is not a star is ever going to receive the qualifying offer. The problem isn't the system - its that the player isn't worth what he thinks he is. It doesn't matter what Cuddyer wants, it matters what the market will bear for him, and it will be a complete free market in this scenario.
  8. Linus
    Well, this is nearly the same scenario that played out with the Twins. You have an enigmatic, talented, erratic starter that you can't live with (at QO pay) and you can't live without. Are you paying for the first half Liriano or the second half? I might be able to fathom overpaying for one year but I am at the point where I would never give the guy a long term contract for big money.
  9. Linus
    This is correct. What the agreement really does is benefit every free agent except the top handful. This group of middle tier free agents who now have a complete, unfettered free market in which to sell their services. Its also had the effect of killing the value for players at the trade deadline as the new team can no longer get draft pick compensation for their rental. You literally are trading for the services of a player for two months, which ain't worth much in the way of prospects.
  10. Linus
    Its hard to believe the Drew fiasco was just last year. My how things can change......
  11. Linus
    Stephen Drew?
  12. Linus
    What is it about Trevor May's performance last year, especially at the major league level that makes people want to hand him a job out of spring training next year? I hope he has a long and successful career for the Twins - he is just as likely to never be an effective big league pitcher. Between that possibility and the inevitable injuries we will get a steady diet of Pelfrey / Milone / K. Johnson, and that's if Meyer pitches well right out of spring training. I am a patient person and have been all throughout the last 4 years, mainly because there just wasn't any talent in the pipeline to make a difference. That's changed now - we can be a competitive club next year, dare I say contenders but only if this dreadful rotation is upgraded.
  13. Linus
    Two minor quibbles here: Arcia raked at AAA before being called up, which makes his situation different than Sano / Buxton who have not played at that level yet. I would also say that to describe Arcia as a "really good player right now" is not accurate. The Twins can roll these guys out there now because they are not contending but on a better team, Arcia would be working these bugs out of his game in the minors.
  14. Linus
    Couldn't agree more. I like Meyer a lot as a prospect and certainly hope May ends up being a MLB caliber starter but you can't have 40% of your rotation dependent on rookies (not to mention that somebody is going to get hurt - it happens every year). Dedicate one spot for the two of them and the other can pitch out of the pen or in AAA, whichever is most appropriate. Add another quality starter that backs everyone up one spot and we can actually contend next year. The only way I want to see Pelfrey or Milone is if we end up with multiple starters injured. If both Meyer and May deserve to be MLB starters, we can figure out a way. They will not be blocked - let's worry about too many good pitchers when it actually happens. Teams that rank 28th in ERA can't take any chances.
  15. Linus
    This is my point, better stated. If we are handing out big contracts, I want to hand it to a proven MLB performer, and a pitcher, as this one add dramatically improves our chances next year. Doesn't have to be Shields (which I used as an example) but somebody we know is going to come in and perform.
  16. Linus
    I would rather blow $100m on James Shields. Rotation fixed and we are now contenders.
  17. Linus
    While Hicks has nothing to do with this.....there is a "right" time for each player to get their shot, and a cost when it is too soon. I agree that "the right time" for these two is going to be earlier than other prospects, but Buxton hasn't even played in AA yet. Let them start in AAA and AA and earn the trip to the big leagues. If they can't do it in the minors, there is no point in bringing them to the majors. Besides, we got our fresh blood in the lineup - it looks nothing like it did at the beginning of the season.
  18. Linus
    I think we really need to take a realistic view of Mint. He's getting a lot of credit for the Miracle's success, which is fine. However, with the talent they had, I don't think these last couple of seasons necessarily proves that he is a great managerial candidate (it also doesn't prove that he is not). My point is this: pick him if you think he has what it takes to be a great manager but don't pick him based on a very short run of success. We just fired a guy with a better track record in that regard.
  19. Linus
    Given what Morneau experienced, you have to wonder if concussions have long lasting effects that the player is not even aware of. Morneau struggled mightily for quite a while and then, magically, is back to one of the best hitters around. My guess is that Joe bounces back next year to normal career type production. I also believe that he will be one of the better defensive first baseball by this time next year - you could almost see the development over the course of the season. I have given up hope, however, that the move to first base will limit his injuries.
  20. Linus
    I'm not worried about making sure we "play the kids" because the lineup is mostly young. More importantly, the improvement this year in offense makes it possible for us to expect competitive play next year. Even more optimistically, the addition of just two players (above avg. starter, quality outfielder) will pretty much fill the only glaring needs.
  21. Linus
    Nothing but good things to say about the guy. Plus, Gardy identified him as the leader of this team now. Hopefully his improvement will be to cut down on his strikeouts and then we will have something special. His fielding is as good as it gets - second base is really his spot. All the athletic diving plays he makes just weren't possible when he was playing short. He didn't have the time or the arm to pull off what he does at second.
  22. Linus
    I think improving by 15 wins is reasonable. Obviously, starting pitching is the low hanging fruit. I would expect Hughes to approximately the same number of games. It is reasonable to think Gibson will get a game or two better and Nolasco, with just a return to typical career numbers will improve by 5 games. They are almost certain to be several games better in the 4 and 5 spots and could be many games better if they added an above average starter via FA. I also think it is reasonable that we will see, at a minimum, incremental improvement in every position (fielding and at the plate) at every position except catcher. While it is not likely to think we will get better offensive production from CF our fielding there should get dramatically better. Mauer is likely to be substantially better than this year as is Arcia. So, there you go. 15 wins - now let's go get that starting pitcher.
  23. Linus
    Fair enough. I will assume going forward that we will dismiss all criticism of Ryan for poor drafting. Seems like I've read that before around here....
  24. Linus
    Its not a popular opinion because there is not a shred of evidence to support it. Its pure speculation on your part because you don't like the guy.
  25. Linus
    OK - since you don't seem to grasp the answers that I have already provided, I'll try again. How many 90+ loss seasons: 7. There, now you have to wait at least 3 more years before you ask the question again.
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