ALessKosherScott
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Everything posted by ALessKosherScott
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IMO, the writer was trying to wrap it up a little too neatly. Greek Freak is Milwakee's future star (and possibly the next Garnett), not Parker. But he wanted to wrap it up in a nice bow as #1 in last year's draft versus #2. For Minnesota, star #2 is going to be whomever they grab in next year's draft, not Lavine. But either way, the final line is the future looks pretty bright for the Wolves. And Rubio's defense is never going to get any love on Grantland after Jalen Rose called him a turnstile in this year's preview.
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http://globe-views.com/dcim/dreams/tank/tank-05.jpg
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A pretty good read on Grantland on why the Wolves may be the most exciting Minnesota team in the future, and also a pretty good case for Towns.
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In my mind, I see Russell as a James Harden type. A decent enough point guard who's probably better suited to be a shooting guard who can help move the ball around. It shifts Wiggins to small forward and Lavine probably to another team. But he can work with Rubio. With that said, you need to find a good, young power forward who's available in the offseason if you draft him.
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82Games had a pretty good sum up long-term pick value judged over twenty years. You can read it here, but to paraphrase the worst top-three picks (think Kwame Brown) still wind up being about as valuable as the average 15-21 pick. And as for Russell, IMO if you're the Wolves you have to come out of the next offseason with someone with star potential and a promising power forward. The two can be the same person, but they don't necessarily have to be if Russell is the best player on the board.
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The bright side is though next year's draft isn't one player deep. The Wolves could move down as far as 8 and still walk away with a player that will help them. Personally, I still like the idea of Towns' shooting range and defense for the franchise long-term over Okafor to an extent. Although I agree Okafor is the safer pick if the Wolves wind up at one. And I get the idea of the Payne trade. It's not exactly solid franchise building, but it's a lottery protected pick until 2020 and with most non-lotto first rounders you're looking for a guy who can play a role. The upside to Payne seems to be something of a Jared Sullinger type who can rebound and make you respect his outside shot. The Wolves really need that kind of guy (no matter which power forward they draft next year). And if Payne can't be that guy, maybe he can motivate Bennett to be him. The biggest problem is we've now sunk two mid-first round picks into finding it. But how valuable are mid-first round picks anyway?
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I'm not sure I'd immediately say no to Russell. It seems like he's already what they're hoping Lavine would grow into. He'd slide Wiggins to small forward, but that would be a great defensive 1-3. Okafor seems like he'd comp better to Al Jefferson than Love. Great inside scorer but no outside game. He strikes me as a safe bet to be good but the other three have a better chance at great. I think you flopped Towns and Cauley-Stein. Towns is the guy who strikes me as having that Duncan/Garnett/Anthony Davis like interior presence and he's a bit more inside-outside where Cauley-Stein is a rim protector. Granted Towns has a bigger chance at flopping than Okafor or Russell. Throw in Muniday and Myles Turner (who does strike me as a potential Love) and it's definitely a good year for a top-6 pick.
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So if you're the Wolves, do you want Russell, Okafor, Towns or Cauley-Stein? I think I lean Towns.
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Leaving to "Beat the Traffic"
ALessKosherScott replied to strumdatjaguar's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I went to a Twins/Yankees game the year in 2000 with a Yankee fan friend of mine from college. Clemens was pitching for the Yankees and the Twins were losing 2-0 going into the bottom of the eight. The Twins got a couple of hits and a walk, but Coomer poped out to center and Midre Cummings struck out and suddenly there were two outs and people were flowing out of the stadium in droves. Then, Jacque Jones hit a two-run single and the game was tied. The next batter, Chad Moeller hit a soft liner that the Yankee left fielder made a dive for. It scooted by him to the wall and the slowest person on the team had broke the game open with a three-run, inside-the-park home run. My friend still curses about that game to this day. -
This almost makes me feel bad for Love. Almost. http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=12171458&ex_cid=espnapi_public
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I feel bad for Love, because it would seem Chicago, Golden State or Houston were better suited for his game with Noah, Bogut or D12 being able to cover his defensive lapses better. The problem in Cleveland is that there isn't a great defensive center to bring everything together and LBJ is aging to the point where he'll probably become a power forward soon, a la Magic and Jordan. Throw in a chucker at point guard in Irving and it was always a bad recipe. Blatt seems to be getting the blame where the GM did a poor job of team construction. The bright side for the TWolves is that as bad as they've been, at the very least there's a legit excuse. They were headed to 3-2 before Rubio got hurt. Throw in their best shooter in Martin and best rebounder in Pek and that's too much for any team to overcome. The bright side is Wiggins, Lavine, Dieng and Muhammed look like they can be at least contributors if not starters for the next few years and the biggest glaring weakness on the team is also the deepest position in next year's draft (power forwards/center). Jahlil Okafor or Myles Turner would solve a lot of problems.
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I don't necessarily disagree with this in a current world. But in this version of the world where the Twins sign Brett Anderson and Brandon McCarthy, it might be an interesting concept to rearrange the staff to be more ground ball oriented rotation where you could suddenly live with Arcia and Santana's defensive lapses a little more. A rotation of something like McCarthy, Anderson, Gibson, Meyer, Pelfrey/Nolasco if there are no takers suddenly plays into the strengths of the Twins defense instead of playing into the weakness.
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In a perfect world, Desmond Jennings. But the Rays asking price may be too rich for my blood. Austin Jackson has some bounce back potential. Upton is a little too big of a contract for my tastes, but it's the right idea. I still have some hope for Aaron Hicks too. Bourjos strikes me as a more athletic Fuld. I'd probably give a 10-20 prospect. But he doesn't strike me as the starting left fielder in 2016, and that's more what I'd want. Something resembling either one of the two Dan Haren hauls.
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Torii Hunter is Returning to the Twins
ALessKosherScott replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
So instead of erecting a Torii Hunter statue at Target Field, we decided to bring back the statue that is Torii Hunter back to solve our outfield defense problems? -
I think it comes more down to why would you want to repeatedly pay Scherzer or Lester $30 million a year through the heart of their decline phase? I think Rasmus would be unquestionably my first offseason move if the team still played in the Metrodome. Saying you're going to fix the outfield defense by signing a left fielder is akin to saying you're going to fix a leaky dam with chewing gum. Even if you bring in the best defensive left fielder ever, there will be a less of an impact. At the same time, Santana more culpable for the Twins bad outfield D than anyone last year by volume of plays he was involved with. Rasmus could play center and slide Santana to left until Buxton is ready, at which point you have the discussion of do you go forward with Santana or Rasmus in left. Rasmus' flaw is your bringing in a Plouffian hitter whose offensive value is entirely dependent on extra base hits. But Rasmus bats left and Target Field notoriously has killed lefty power. Is there a right-handed Rasmus out there who can be had in trade? The more interesting question is if you don't find a real centerfielder this offseason, do you consider trading Hughes for a king's ransom rather than playing the game of how far to the mean will he regress in 2015?
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Who's The Next Phil Hughes?
ALessKosherScott replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Anderson is my favorite on the list because he's the kind of pitcher the Twins have had the most success with. The MO of the organization has been working with guys with good command and turning it into great command. That his strikeout rate is pretty good for an extreme groundballer is the bonus and what makes him the most Hughes like. He hasn't been healthy, but that's what lets you sign him to a one-year, make good deal on the cheap. The upside if he gets healthy and figures things out is something of a Cliff Lee-lite. If he doesn't, it costs you $6 or $7 million for one year and that's not that big of risk. I don't mind Masterson, because Target Field can help correct his biggest flaw to an extent (that left handed pitchers tee off on him because he's such an extreme sinker/slider pitcher). But at thirty, he's not going to suddenly figure out a change up and solve his lefty issues when we play in Chicago . And the Fangraphs crowd sourced contract had him as more expensive and more likely to get a multi-year deal than Anderson. Throw in that he's turning 30 and it seems to me like there's more risk and less upside to him than Anderson. Billingsley? Josh Johnson? Morrow? If you can get any of them for a one year, $3 million deal, why not take a risk. The upside for one year is better than signing another Mike Pelfrey. -
Who's The Next Phil Hughes?
ALessKosherScott replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Pelfrey, no, he never struck out enough people. Nolasco, maybe. Though his bounce back ceiling is more #3 starter than #2. The question seems to be more how do you find someone who could potentially top the rotation with Hughes if everything breaks right. -
Who's The Next Phil Hughes?
ALessKosherScott replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Brett Anderson would be a great choice if Rick Anderson were still the pitching coach. He has that Hughesian trait of having good but not great command and decent stuff. But since Rick isn't the pitching coach, I'm not quite sure how it will play out. It will be interesting to see what the new philosophy on pitching the organization takes. Depending on the price tag, I'd take a shot at any of them though. In a worst case scenario, any of them could be a cromulent reliever even if the starting thing doesn't work out. -
https://vine.co/v/OeO7OxawvMd All the more reason Rubio is quickly becoming my favorite Wolf since Garnett.
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With a $16 million commitment, the Twins would be tying their hands for further moves. With more money coming with Buehrle, the Blue Jays are going to be asking for one of the Twins top prospects in return. Maybe not Buxton. But possibly a Stewart or if you're lucky a Lewis Thorpe. With $16 million, you could make a move to pick up a Colby Rasmus in free agency and probably still have enough money to pick up a second tier starting pitcher to boot or even two or three pitchers if you're willing to take a shot at the Brett Andersons and Gavin Floyds of the world. The Twins problems are too big for one pitcher to solve at a hefty salary alone. Pass.
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If we can talk about his tail battling-ness and ability to pitch to contract, I'm all in on Buerhle. If we're going to try to win baseball games, I'm all in on seeing what affect a good defender in center will have on Millone and Nolasco.
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I don't think you'd get value. Plus, if you're going to take dead aim on 35 wins this year having another option besides Kevin Martin who doesn't make you cringe when they shoot a three-pointer isn't a bad idea. If we're going to insist that Lavine wasn't a huge mistake right now, Barea is the best option to go. Though you may have to waive him outright.
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Kind of an interesting preseason so far, where Little Big Dog has looked pretty solid, Budinger healthy, Bennett improved and Lavine like he's going to spend an awful lot of time in the D-League.
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IMO, it's less that and more people have chosen their sides. Argument 1: Trevor Plouffe is a nice little third baseman, but he's no All-Star and you don't block a potential talent like Sano with him. Argument 2: Trevor Plouffe is a nice little third baseman, and it's been ten years of wandering through the wilderness post-Koskie for the organization to find a nice, little third baseman. Which is also about the time frame from Gaetti to Koskie. Guys like Plouffe don't come around everyday, so if Sano can't field third base and we commit to him there it could be trouble. Both are very Faustian bargains, full of win or lose. It all comes down to which devil you want to deal with. But you never win when you deal with devils. And if you look at a team that successfully dealt with this same situation, there's a reason both Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman are still in Washington.
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IMO, it probably comes down to a Cabrera situation with the Marlins or if you want to go old school a Killebrew situation back in the 60s where Sano is less of a disaster at third in compared to being in left field. With a flyball pitching staff, a statue will hurt you more in left field than at third. Or, it could be an Albert Pujols situation where he proves more valuable in left than third until he eventually slides to first. I don't think it really matters much this year anyway. Plouffe is your major league third baseman, and you really don't want to use Sano there coming off elbow surgery anyway unless its an emergency. But if Plouffe regresses and Sano isn't a left fielder, you can't close the door on it. Sano isn't going to have a shelf full of gold gloves when its all said and done. But his power seems pretty tailor made for Target Field, so you've got to find a space for him somewhere until Mauer retires.
