Nick Nelson

I mentioned this in the article briefly, but I think it's sort of a misperception. Yes, Rocco did juggle lineups a lot (which is very common practice among all MLB managers these days) but the lack of a regular #3 hitter was more of a personnel issue than a matter of personal philosophy. No one on this team (sans Buxton) deserved to be hitting third! Nelson Cruz was pretty much the everyday #3 hitter the whole time he was here.

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett, Troy Taormina-Imagn Images, Brady Boehm When you think of the great teams in Twins history, you quickly think of outstanding and iconic hitters who anchored the lineup from the three-hole: Tony Oliva in 1965. Kirby Puckett in 1987 and 1991. Joe Mauer in 2006. Nelson Cruz in 2019. In the modern MLB landscape, the distinction of a No. 3 hitter as beacon of the lineup has diminished, with managers increasingly plugging their best bats second or even leadoff (e.g. Byron Buxton). But across the league, the third spot in the order is still home to the game's best offensive players on balance. It produced the highest OPS of any lineup spot this past season, at .780, and that was true in 2024 as well. The lack of a standout No. 3 hitter has become a signature shortcoming for Minnesota. In 2025, the third spot in their order produced a lower OPS (.656) than any other, including ninth, which was typically occupied by the likes of Christian Vázquez, DaShawn Keirsey Jr. and James Outman. It's an astonishing stat that's almost hard to believe, but really gets to the root of how broken this lineup was. As Derek Shelton takes over the Twins, one of his first priorities will be sorting out the offense and figuring out who's actually going to carry this lineup forward. I'd be surprised if he messed around with Buxton's role as leadoff man, given how well that was working, and either way, Buxton is 32. Somebody needs to emerge and headline the next generation of the Twins offense. Who's it going to be? Here are five candidates for the short (and long?) term. Trevor Larnach I know, not the most exciting name. I lead with Larnach because he is the incumbent and de facto choice; he topped the 2025 Twins in three-hole appearances with 26. That's not a high number, and it reflects the constant churn of Rocco Baldelli's lineups — which I think says as much about his options as his managing style. Twelve different players appeared as No. 3 hitter. Larnach led the pack, and he also led the Twins in starts as No. 2 hitter, while ranking second in starts at leadoff and cleanup. No Minnesota hitter was written into the top four spots of the lineup more. Was this a big reason for the offense's letdown, given how Larnach languished? Yeah. But it does say something about his esteem as an offensive talent. With a new manager aboard and a directive for "fast-paced baseball" in place, the lumbering Larnach could be on his way out. But, the whole idea of this refresh in leadership is to wash away last season's disappointment, and rejuvenate the talent that's already in place. Why not him? A longtime hitting specialist like Shelton can surely see the raw ability of Larnach, who flashed impressively in 2024. If he does stick around, I could easily envision Larnach as the No. 3 hitter on Opening Day. He'd be one of the most experienced and highly paid hitters on the team. But I can't imagine he'll have a strong grip on the job. Luke Keaschall When you bat .302 with an .827 OPS through your first 207 plate appearances in the majors, at age 23, you're going to be in the conversation for batting third. He might be, at this moment, the odds-on favorite for most appearances as No. 3 hitter in 2026. Unfortunately, Twins fans know better than to assume a successful rookie season will carry forward. Keaschall's plate approach and speed are not in doubt, but his power is, and he's already had a hard time staying healthy. If he can't add more pop, he probably profiles better as a No. 1 or 2 hitter, which is hardly a knock. The question becomes: who's gonna drive him in? Royce Lewis Lewis has the power you want from a No. 3 hitter. The problem is, these days he offers little else. Eighteen doubles and 13 home runs in 403 plate appearances isn't bad, albeit not amazing, but Lewis's lack of patience and consistency led to a .237 average and .283 on-base percentage. He was well below average as a hitter, but everyone knows his track record. At his peak Lewis was the prototype for a No. 3 hitter, and he fulfilled the duty admirably in the 2023 playoffs when he lifted the Twins lineup in the ALDS. It's been a long time since we've seen that form but he's only 26, and surely more determined than ever to get his career back on track. The idea of Royce locking back in, batting third behind Buxton and Keaschall, is something you can really dream on for 2026. On September 28th, the final day of this past season, Lewis hit third for the Twins, his first appearance in that spot since May 21st. Maybe a statement of some kind? They know how important it is to hype him up and build his confidence. I'll be fascinated to see Shelton's approach with Lewis, assuming he's not traded. Brooks Lee The Twins would surely love for Lee to be occupying the No. 3 spot regularly. In theory, he's a switch-hitter who can make contact and slash the ball everywhere with 20-HR power, a born run producer and ignitor. In practice, though, he's been a light-hitting, replacement-level infielder prone to lengthy production slumps, and best suited for the bottom of the lineup. He's been unable to break through so far in 189 major-league games, but Lee turns just 25 in February and has plenty of time to figure things out, especially with the Twins taking a step back competitively. I would be surprised to see him hitting near the top of the lineup next April, barring an overwhelming spring, but he'll have a quick path to prime time if he can find what's missing in his offensive game. The vision for Lee as a multi-year lineup centerpiece is fading, but it's not gone. Walker Jenkins If all goes according to plan, Jenkins will be the guy. THE guy. He's one of the top hitting prospects in the minors, and he's on the precipice of major-league readiness after reaching Triple-A in 2025. I don't think it's out of the question that he's batting third for the Twins on Opening Day next year but that certainly isn't the expectation right now. More likely he'll start back with the Saints with a midseason ETA. Whenever he arrives, Jenkins will be angling to bat third. He's got all the tools to become a premier offensive player, and in many ways, the premise of a return to relevance for the Twins hinges on him being The One. He exhibited all the traits this past season, cruising through three levels while slashing .286/.399/.451 in 84 games. Not to jinx anything, but this has been a Mauer-esque ascent thus far. We'll see if Jenkins can unlock at least a fraction of the awesome potential he's shown. If not, the Twins will need some of the above players to lead the charge ... or, they'll perhaps have to pivot and pin their hopes on whichever player they take at the top of next year's draft. By and large, great teams have great No. 3 hitters. That's clearly been the case in this franchise's history. So, which hitter is going to catalyze the next great Twins team? As Shelton and the front office aim to steer the franchise back to a better place, it's one of the main questions they need to answer. Luckily, they do have some legitimate candidates to work with. Who'd I miss? Arguments can be made for Matt Wallner, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Gabriel Gonzalez, Kaelen Culpepper and others. Let us know who you think will be the star hitter on the next exceptional Minnesota Twins team. View full article

Image courtesy of Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images On Thursday it was reported that LaTroy Hawkins will join the reconfigured Minnesota Twins coaching staff as bullpen coach under new manager Derek Shelton. Without doing much research, I would venture to guess that few people in the history of baseball have ever been as qualified for this role, at least on paper. First there is the unparalleled practical experience. He pitched for 11 different teams over his 21-year major-league career and ranks 10th all-time in appearances with 1,042. During his playing days, Hawkins experienced pretty much everything that a modern-day relief pitcher might be dealing with: pressure, failure, success, trades, demotions, transitioning from a starter, and so on. Secondly, there is all the added perspective Hawkins has gained in his post-playing career. He has coached college players and youth of various age groups as part of USA Baseball. He has served as a special assistant in the Twins front office for several years, and has frequently appeared on broadcasts as an analyst. The one thing you consistently hear about Hawkins is how well he blends old-school sensibilities with new-age philosophies, bringing a perpetual curiosity and learning mentality despite his depth of experience in the game. That will be important as the Twins look to forge a new identity under Shelton. Hawkins is going to be tasked with a monumental challenge. Minnesota's front office will be rebuilding its bullpen essentially from scratch after shipping out nearly all of their established relievers at the 2024 deadline. However the team goes about putting together a relief corps next season, it promises to be a big ol' experiment. Gambles on low-cost free agents? Another round of reclamation projects off waivers? Converting marginal minor-league starters into relievers on the fly? It's all in play and each of these avenues is likely to play a role in constructing the 2026 Twins bullpen. What you are not likely to see is the addition of high-profile, established arms that will be plug-and-play. In this context, the presence of a respected, seasoned, deeply knowledgeable voice like Hawk could be massively impactful, making this one of the most commendable moves we've seen from the Twins in some time. You can never predict how a coach is going to take to the job at the MLB level, but the credentials here are nearly unparalleled and as a bonus, it will be nice to see a likable and familiar face back in uniform during what may be a trying season. I have huge doubts about the ability of the Twins to field even a reasonably competent bullpen next year, given how little they have to work with. But the addition of Hawkins and his wealth of experience gives me a little more faith and optimism. View full article

Image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images One of the big Twins-related storylines of this MLB postseason was the resounding success of the Toronto Blue Jays offense, and the widespread acclaim for their new hitting coach David Popkins and his role. It's obviously not a narrative that reflects especially well on the Twins, who scapegoated Popkins after the 2024 collapse only to see their offense further regress under Matt Borgschulte in 2025. But in some ways, it really does reflect well. Minnesota's front office saw something in Popkins when they fished him out of the Dodgers minor-league system years earlier. They knew the type of impact he could have, even if it never fully came to fruition here. That's been a long-running theme for the Twins since Derek Falvey came aboard. Back in the Terry Ryan era, it was almost stunning how rarely other teams tried to pillage the Minnesota staff, even when the Twins were darlings of the league in the oughts. During the Falvey era, this organization has become a recruiting hot spot. Among the names we've seen plucked away by other teams over the years: Jeremy Hefner (Mets), Tanner Swanson (Yankees), Pete Fatse (Red Sox), James Rowson (Marlins), Wes Johnson (LSU??). In fact, new manager Derek Shelton himself is a fine example, hired by Pittsburgh away from his bench role with the Twins after just two years. As is Borgschulte, who was pilfered from Minnesota's Triple-A affiliate by Baltimore in 2022. Popkins wasn't poached from the Twins by Toronto — rather, he landed there very quickly after his dismissal from Minnesota last year. A similar story played out for Jayce Tingler, who just got hired as bench coach by the Giants before his future with Minnesota was even officially addressed. (Writing was certainly on the wall.) And now we have yet another example to add to the pile: Corbin Day has been hired by the Marlins, joining their big-league staff as an assistant hitting coach. Previously, Day distinguished himself as a hitting coach in Single-A and Double-A for the Twins before serving as an MLB advance scout in 2025. Not all of these in-demand departures have experienced success at their next stop, but many did. Popkins is the most striking example. Swanson remains quality control coach and catching coordinator for the Yankees, six years after joining their staff. Rowson is now New York's hitting coach, contending for managerial positions. Fatse has survived coaching staff purges in three consecutive years with Boston. Hefner lasted six years as Mets hitting coach before exiting and quickly getting snapped up by the Braves. We'll see what the future holds for Day and Tingler (and Baldelli?!). But there's an unmistakable trend here: Coaches in the Twins organization, during Falvey's tenure, have repeatedly caught the attention of other teams. They've been recruited away, or snagged quickly after departing, and they've often enjoyed a lot of success elsewhere. It begs a critical question: What the heck is wrong with this Twins organization? Why are quality coaches being held back from getting sustained results and developing talented minor-leaguers into productive big-leaguers? That question looms large in my mind, and it's one of the main things that makes me highly skeptical a change in managers will do much to cure what ails this franchise, even if Shelton is indeed the man for the job. For too many of his forebears, the job has proven unmanageable. View full article

I did embed the full video so people could watch it for themselves. You can interpret as you please but I will say that you'd have to be quite generous to have a favorable read on the quote you shared above. Shelton had no other manager job offers! Of course he wanted the job! Anything they were going to say was going to make him want it.

To be clear my expectation was never that he would "go rogue." I just hoped that he and the front office might have orchestrated or prepared some more compelling answers to these questions they knew were coming. All I'm asking is for anyone involved with the team to give me a reason to believe or feel inspired. I'm not seeing it. "We're going to play competitive fundamental baseball" is an empty platitude that is completely contradicted by Shelton's track record over the past 6 years. And that is apparently all they got.

Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images By now we've become accustomed to public-facing words from Minnesota Twins leadership that are long on jargon but short on substance. So that's where expectations were set heading into Tuesday's press conference introducing Derek Shelton as the club's new manager. To his credit, Shelton kept the first part in check, answering questions succinctly in a quick session that ran less than 30 minutes front to back. But alas, there wasn't much substance to be found in Shelton's responses from reporters who pressed him on what he'll do differently as Twins managers, and why fans should believe in better days ahead. There is more insight to be drawn from what Shelton didn't say — flat-out refused to say, really — than the few things he did emphasize, which on their own rung pretty hollow. Here are five quotes from the presser that I found especially striking, and why. "Attention to detail and fundamentals are extremely, extremely important to me ... There is no detail that's too small." He's singing the right notes, given how much frustration had mounted with the Twins' sloppy play by the end of the Rocco Baldelli era. But in his only major-league stop as a manager so far, attention to detail was not a strength of Shelton's teams. "Constant struggles with fundamentals" was cited by Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette as a primary downfall of the Pirates under Shelton. That doesn't necessarily mean it was the manager's fault, but Shelton hasn't shown any demonstrable ability to elevate decision-making and execution in a poor fundamental bunch, which these Twins have proven to be. "We're gonna have to continue to work in that market of growing, competing, developing." This came as part of an answer from Shelton on what he sees as the Twins' strengths. First he mentioned the "good starting pitching group" (which ranked 23rd in the majors in ERA this year) and Byron Buxton (conspicuously the only specific player h named). Then he pointed to the standout farm system, portraying internal development as the "market" in which the Twins must operate — an interesting word choice. And again, this is the same market Pittsburgh was operating in while failing miserably under his watch. "I think we'll get into that more, as we go through. I think that's something that as we talked about there was clarity, but it's also going to be a group that's going to learn and grow, but yeah, I think we'll probably get into that more as we continue to go." To me, this was the flashing red-light moment of the entire press conference. Shelton was asked by one reporter if the front office pitched a vision to him for how they planned to turn the team around, and what the near future held in store. He gave a fairly long-winded answer about the complete transparency he was given, and how everything was on the table, but failed to elaborate. Moments later, another reporter followed up asking directly: What did they say? Shelton responded with the laughably evasive answer above, firmly asserting that he fully knows of the team's intentions but is unwilling to peep a word about them, even directionally. And I think we can all put two and two together on why that would be the case. "Excitement about the young group we have. Excitement about the pitching group we have." These are the two things Shelton led with when asked to give Twins fans a reason to feel enthused about this team. And it's one of those answers that just completely falls flat. Why would we feel excited about the young talent that we've been watching flounder over the past two seasons? Why would we feel excited about a pitching staff that just had its bullpen wiped out, with underwhelming initial returns from the deadline? Maybe it's a question with no satisfying honest answer to be given, but I fear this is a preview of the empty youth-based vision that will be pitched to fans on a further whittled down roster in 2026. "I'm not using the term rebuild. People are always gonna go to a certain term, but I think we're gonna develop young players." So, he's not using the term because he doesn't like it, that's more or less what fans can expect. Got it. View full article

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images Over the past two years, starting with their open pronouncement that they'd be "right-sizing" payroll in the aftermath of a postseason breakthrough, the Minnesota Twins have been steadily devolving into a complete and total mess that no one much wants to be associated with. By the trade deadline in 2025, we had players melting down on the field, requesting trades and taking shots on their way out the door. ("These facilities here, all the coaching staff, nutritionists, the kitchen — it's amazing what they have compared to what we had over at the Twins," said Chris Paddack shortly after being traded to Detroit.) Star Tribune columnist La Velle E. Neal III suggested that the Twins were almost doing Rocco Baldelli a favor by letting him go. This is a wayward, rudderless franchise with unpopular ownership, questionable baseball leadership and meager fan interest. The most optimistic view is that the team will reinvest their Carlos Correa savings this offseason and push spending back to at least 2024-25 levels, potentially enabling the types of key additions to the bullpen and lineup required for a return to relevance. Even if they have money to spend, though, the front office is going to find it difficult to recruit quality players who are in demand on the open market. Minnesota is just a blatantly unattractive destination at this point in time. That same dynamic applies to their search for new coaching talent. We'll find out soon how many members of Rocco Baldelli's staff new manager Derek Shelton intends to keep around, if any, but presumably the Twins be looking to add at least a couple of new voices to the room. The bench coach role feels particularly important, potentially being staged as an heir-in-waiting behind the 55-year-old Shelton. Will the best and brightest be drawn to this situation? Low expectations can be advantageous in some ways, but I just have a hard time seeing sought-after candidates gravitating toward this Twins team that is in such disarray. The Shelton hiring itself feels like a bit of an ill omen. The Twins moved somewhat quickly to get their new skipper in place, ensuring they wouldn't get left standing in a game of musical chairs, but Shelton was hardly a hot commodity coming off a fairly disastrous run in Pittsburgh that led to his firing last May. If Minnesota didn't hire him, would anyone? This is unfortunately a constraint that needs to be kept in mind as we plot out what's possible for the Twins this offseason. There are plenty of signals pointing to a continued teardown, but even in the scenario where they keep their veteran standouts and try to bring in some impact players, their work will be cut out for them. With that in mind, the best hope for a turnaround lies in making good trades and getting more out of their current talent. The problem there is that Minnesota's only valuable trade assets (i.e. Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez) are also pretty essential to any vision for competitiveness next year. And while fresh coaching voices under Shelton could be a positive, the rising stars in that field are also being heavily recruited as staffs across the league get rebuilt. If they have any desire to rebound, recapture fan interest and get things started on the right foot under a reshaped ownership structure, Derek Falvey and Co. are going to need to get creative. Because they've put themselves in a place where they'll really to struggle in talent acquisition regardless of their resources View full article

I'm not making a case for Shelton or trying to rally anyone around the hire. I'm not really a fan personally. I'm just pointing out that those "incredibly low Vegas win projections" are evidence of how little he had to work with in Pittsburgh. I also don't really agree that a major-league manager's job is to develop players, although I agree it would've been nice to see a few more hitters break through under his watch.

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images Reception to Minnesota's announcement of Derek Shelton as new manager has been mixed, at best. While partially owing to the general state of fan morale, it's been tough to find much enthusiasm surrounding the next chapter in Twins managerial lore. He's a retread, some say. He's being brought in to oversee a low-stakes rebuild, others say. And of course, there is the matter of his extremely underwhelming run with the Pittsburgh Pirates, who never finished even close to .500 or above fourth place during his six seasons at the helm. In fact, his winning percentage was among the worst in MLB history. There's validity to all of these critiques, but I would caution against putting too much stock into the last one. If you're expecting a manager to magically turn a bad team into a good one, you're setting yourself up for disappointment. The question isn't whether Shelton's teams in Pittsburgh were bad, it's whether they underperformed. I'm not sure you can really say they did. Yes, his 306-440 record as manager of the Pirates was ugly. But that needs to be paired with the context of highly talent-deficient teams that never had any realistic hope to begin with. According to SportsOddsHistory, these are the Vegas over-unders for the Pirates heading into each season under Shelton's tenure, along with the eventual win totals for those teams: 2025: 76.5 (71) - Shelton fired on May 8 2024: 75.5 (76) 2023: 67.5 (76) 2022: 64.5 (62) 2021: 58.5 (61) 2020: 25.5 (19) - 60-game season If we're looking at overall record as a manager, Shelton was minus-134 in his six years with Pittsburgh. If we're looking at his record relative to expectations (at least from Vegas), he's just a couple games in the red, and his biggest deviation came in 2023 when the Pirates exceeded their projection by eight games. Now, to be clear, I'm not necessarily trying to let him off the hook. Ideally it'd be nice to see a manager bring a little more out of his squad and spearhead a trend of sustained improvement (which was kind of happening up through 2024). But you can only work with what you've got. I doubt there was a manager in the world that was going to steer this year's Pirates team, which had absolutely no hitting ability across the roster, anywhere other than last place. The problem with Rocco Baldelli wasn't that he didn't radically elevate Twins players beyond their level of talent and ability. It's that in 2024 and 2025 his teams fell well short of their potential. Entering both years, Minnesota was at least a co-favorite in the AL Central, per Vegas, and in both years they finished in fourth place. The job of Shelton, or any manager, is not to spin straw into gold. It is to take the makings of a quality team and help the players collectively see it through. That's where Rocco failed and I'm not sure we can fairly say it's an opportunity Shelton has ever had, managing Pirates teams that were at a constant disadvantage in resources and talent. Whether he will get a viable opportunity in the next few years with the Twins, who very well may be leaning into an all-out rebuild, is another story. But that story pertains a lot more to ownership and the front office than it does to Shelton, whose true prowess as a manager will remain unknown until he actually gets to manage a team that's equipped to win. View full article

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images Trevor Larnach's development as a major-leaguer was slow and full of setbacks, but what made one feel confident was the steady trend of improvement. He debuted with a meager .672 OPS in 2021, then improved to .712 in 2022 and .727 in 2023. Even by this point, at age 26, the production remained unspectacular, but there were a lot of intriguing aspects in his underlying metrics and trajectory. Sure enough, the pieces came together in a breakout 2024 season for Larnach. He slashed .259/.338/.434 for a .771 OPS that was 16% better than league average. He became a fixture near the top of Rocco Baldelli's lineups against righties, and Larnach taking another step forward in 2025 was integral to the Twins' vision for an all-around offensive rebound. Larnach came out of the gates this year as regular cleanup hitter. And he just never really got going. There were modest bursts of production from time to time but Larnach couldn't find a rhythm, slumping to the finish line and finishing with a regressive .727 OPS. Like Matt Wallner, Larnach was heavily suppressed when pitchers buckled down in run-scoring opportunities, and he offered even less value than Wallner in the field (leading to almost three-quarters of his starts coming at designated hitter). It all amounted to roughly replacement-level production in 142 games. Larnach was one of the biggest drags on Minnesota's dormant offense. He plays at a position of abundance, and he's in line to get a decent raise via arbitration — so naturally there is talk about moving on. I think that would be a mistake. But let's take a look at what needs to do to rejuvenate this career if he remains in the team's plans. Limitations to Overcome Larnach has two primary things working against his value as a player, and neither one seems likely to change for the better at this point. First, he can't hit lefties. He just can't. The Twins greatly increased his opportunities against southpaws in 2025, hoping he might come to at least hold his own in same-sided matchups –– but he posted a .608 OPS, in line with his .585 career mark. Second, there is the total lack of defensive value. He's slow and unlike Wallner he doesn't have much of an arm. Both of these factors were hindrances in a campaign that saw Larnach finish with 0.2 fWAR, but they don't preclude him from being a valuable contributor at the major-league level. I will grant that Larnach's persistent inability to fully unlock his potential makes a solid case against keeping him around, but if he can lock back into what he does well, Twins fans will quickly come to remember what he can offer. Seeing Red Again The 2024 season, especially the final stretch, was a rough one for many Minnesota hitters. Not Larnach, though. He enjoyed a career year, and actually finished strong while the rest of the team tanked, posting an .804 OPS in August and September. I look at Larnach's Statcast profile from that season and I see all of the qualities that made him a first-round draft pick and a highly regarded young bat: the outfielder did everything well at the plate with the exception of swinging and missing (where he improved dramatically from the previous year). He faded across pretty much every facet in 2025, for whatever reason. Maybe his skills are already dulling as he approaches 30. Maybe there were health issues quietly being managed. Maybe it was plain and simply a bad year, and one he can put behind him in pursuit of an eventual free-agent payday. It all comes down to Larnach maximizing his theoretical main strength: mashing right-handed pitchers. That was a persistent struggle this year for the Twins, who slashed just .237/.308/.400 against righties. Larnach's .758 OPS vs. RHP wasn't good enough, but also it's a solidly above-average baseline and he packs more explosive upside than a lot of other players crowding the corner-outfield mix. Enough Rebound Potential to Stay Relevant? Larnach is in a tough spot. Turning 29 this winter, he no longer offers youthful projection in the same sense as Alan Roden, whose acquisition at the last deadline puts Larnach in the expendability crosshairs. He also doesn't have the proven track record of high-end production of Wallner; at his best Larnach hasn't been able to level up from good to great. Still, as we all know, baseball development is nonlinear and late bloomers are all around us. Larnach has shown the traits of a very good hitter, and the Twins clearly recognized that. Projected to make $4.7 million in arbitration, he's feeling the crunch as Wallner, Roden, Austin Martin, Emmanuel Rodriguez and maybe even Walker Jenkins all contend for playing time in the outfield corners or DH. Is the upside the flashed in 2024 still within Larnach? Was it even good enough to be worth betting on? We'll find out soon enough how the Twins feel. Explore previous entries in the "Road to a Rebound" series: Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner View full article

Okay but here's the thing: in 2024 Wallner had a 1.123 OPS with RISP and in 2023 it was .983. Did his skill for hitting in these situations radically change from one year to the next or are we looking at statistical noise in a sample of 60 at-bats? You can certainly believe what you please but it's at least a valid question to ask. (I'll add that despite the .177 avg, Wallner had a very solid 19-to-14 K/BB in 79 PA with RISP so it's not like he was getting dismantled in those ABs.)

I get that memories of these at-bats (getting beat with fastballs up in the zone) stick in people's minds, but what evidence is there that it actually derailed his game? If pitchers unlocked some new advantage wouldn't it lead to more strikeouts, fewer walks, more pop-ups, something? He stayed consistent or improved in basically all of these areas.

Great example of the disconnect between perception and reality with Wallner! We're treating him like he's been a disaster at the plate -- he has a 127 career OPS+. That would rank in the top 10 all time for this franchise. For reference: Allison 127, Hrbek 128, Oliva 131.

Image courtesy of John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images Here are a few things that might surprise you about Matt Wallner's 2025 season, compared to his previous norm: he struck out less, swung and miss less, and walked more. And despite batting just .202, he was still 10% better than the average MLB hitter overall. I don't think these facts match up with a lot of perceptions from the fanbase, understandably enough. With his big penchant for big whiffs, Wallner's aesthetics haven't quite matched the caliber of his offensive performance in the big leagues, which is why many didn't recognize that he was one of the most productive hitters in all of baseball for the first couple seasons of his career, rubbing shoulders on the wOBA leaderboard with perennial MVP contenders. Wallner's step back in 2025 was disappointing and discouraging, to be sure, but from my view, less disturbing than some of the other hitters covered in this "Road to a Rebound" series. (Find previous entries linked at the bottom of this article.) The Cruel Whims of BABIP and RISP In 2023 and 2024, Wallner greatly exceeded his expected batting average, for one simple reason: amazing fortune on balls in play. Between those two seasons, his .358 BABIP was third-highest in MLB (min. 500 PA), enabling him to bat .257 despite a 34% K-rate. There's always a degree of randomness involved with BABIP. It definitely helps to consistently hit the ball hard as hell, but in the case of Wallner — a lumbering fly ball hitter — such a high rate of reaching on contact never felt sustainable. (Especially because, to be clear, home runs do not count toward one's batting average on balls in play.) Sure enough, things swung in the opposite direction for Wallner in 2025. His .228 BABIP ranked third-worst in the majors (min. 300 PA) and as a result his batting average sunk to nearly the Mendoza line. One of the other glaring characteristics of Wallner's 2025 season was his performance with runners in scoring position, where he batted just .177. Fifteen of his 17 homers were solo shots. Troubling numbers! But we're talking about a sample size of 62 at-bats, and the same thing is true of Wallner's RISP stats as his BABIP — prior to being very bad in 2025, they were extremely good. I'm not saying either of these things are out of a hitter's control. But again, there's definitely some randomness involved and Wallner seems like proof positive, given how relatively little his underlying metrics changed. I feel safe in saying that, even without the kind of wholesale adjustments we need to see from Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis, Wallner will naturally gravitate back toward being a quality hitter in 2026. But just how far he bounces back with the bat matters because his defensive outlook has shifted more firmly for the worse. An Uncertain Defensive Future Wallner has persistently rated out very poorly in the field, thanks mainly to a lack of range, and that could present an issue for a Twins team that has been vocal about wanting to sharpen up defensively. The missed plays became more frequent and noticeable from Wallner, who on several occasions gave up extra bases on ill-advised dives. His stellar arm just doesn't come into play often enough to be a major asset. I'm of two minds on Wallner and his defensive future. I do think that upgrading to someone like Alan Roden could potentially save a bunch of runs, but then you've got Roden and his questionable bat starting in right field. Actually what I find most likely is that Wallner holds down the job for a while longer, before Byron Buxton eventually slides to right field and Walker Jenkins takes over in center. Either way, whether he's holding down right field as a subpar glove or relocating to DH, the pressure will be on Wallner's bat to produce if he's going to emerge as a true cornerstone player. Sturdy Strengths to Build On I'm probably more bullish on Wallner than any other Twins hitter who had a down year and is looking to rebound. There are some variables that can affect his outcomes greatly, and slumps will remain inevitable, but when your core foundation involves taking good at-bats, walking at a 12% clip and consistently hitting the ball as hard as anyone in the league, you're going to be in solid shape at the plate. Certainly there are tweaks and adjustments Wallner can and should make to facilitate better outcomes on swings next year, but there's reason for confidence that he can get back to meeting his high bar for offensive output. Explore previous entries in the "Road to a Rebound" series: Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis View full article

Image courtesy of Jerome Miron-Imagn Images August 18th, 2024. It's a date that lives in infamy for Twins fans — the moment it all started falling apart for the team. Jorge Alcala imploded on the mound in Texas, blowing a four-run lead, and a collapse ensued for Minnesota that hasn't really stopped since. You can also trace the downfall of Royce Lewis back to this date pretty much exactly. In that same 6-5 loss against the Rangers, he snapped a seven-game hitting streak (striking out in a pinch-hit appearance), and thus his own unceasing performance spiral began. Lewis entered play that day with a .970 OPS; he slashed .182/.224/.250 the rest of the way to finish with a .747 OPS. Lewis homered 32 times in career 463 plate appearances prior to the 8/18/24 dividing line, an average of one home run per every 15 trips. Since then he has gone deep 14 times in 546 PA, or once every 39. At his best Lewis elevated the Twins as a team to new heights — their first playoff success in 20 years — and at his worst he's been one of the chief culprits in their collective descent. Can the former top draft pick go back to being an asset instead of an anchor? The Fear Factor As Lewis found his footing in the major leagues, between injuries, he began to distinguish himself as a hitter who inspired fear in opposing pitchers. Make a mistake and that thing is going over the fence. The pressure on pitchers to tread carefully helped Lewis draw walks at a decent rate, despite the fact that he will never be confused with a patient hitter. In 2023 he walked at a respectable 8.4% clip, and in 2024 a nearly identical 8.6%. What really tells the story of Lewis' drop-off, in my mind, is how much the fear factor has evaporated for opposing pitchers. By the end of the 2025 season, no one was remotely afraid to come into the zone against Royce. After his last and only multi-walk game of the season on August 17th, Lewis drew three walks (against 40 strikeouts) in 146 plate appearances, including just one in the entire month of September. Whereas coming over the plate against Lewis used to be a death sentence, pitchers now felt confident that he'd whiff or put a weak swing on the ball, and their confidence was well warranted outside of one random Monday night in Anaheim. Now it's Twins fans who are afraid — afraid that the aggregated impact of Lewis' string of serious injuries has taken a physical toll, fundamentally and permanently lowering his ability to produce. Fortunately, there were some promising signs in his late-season performance that serve to quell such concerns somewhat. Healthy at Last ... With a Payoff Yet to Come? You wouldn't know it from his stats or swing results, but by simply watching him on the field, it seemed quite evident that during the final stretch of 2025, Lewis was in as good of a place physically as he's been in a long time. The poor showing at the plate was offset by levels of sharpness in the field and speed on the bases that many thought were gone for good. At third base, he was steady and made a handful of exceptional plays. He also stole 11 bags on 12 attempts in his final 34 games. The same guy who, not long ago, found himself jogging the bases out of desperation to keep injuries at bay was routinely cutting loose and swiping them at will. I don't know how you can look at the development and not feel encouraged. It didn't translate to offensive production, for the most part. Lewis' plate approach and swing remained out of sorts right up through the end of the season. But a broken swing is much easier to fix than a broken body, and he finished on an unprecedented run of good health, appearing in all but two of Minnesota's 77 games after the start of July. This offseason he has the opportunity focus more on his game than physical maintenance. Open Up the Swing, Unlock Results I'm far from a hitting expert, but when I take a cursory dive deeper into Lewis' metrics, a couple of (possibly related) things stick out: he's getting dominated by fastballs and has become overly fixated on pulling the ball. In 2023, Lewis batted .327 and slugged .800 against four-seam fastballs, whiffing at just 20%. In 2025, he batted .181 with a .333 slugging percentage and whiffed on 31.2% of four-seamers. Lewis had a .344 OBA this year against breaking balls compared to .267 against fastballs. This matches the eye test. Lewis struggles to get around on velocity, and hopes for a hanging pitch he can turn on. Such examples accounted for a majority of his 2025 home runs, all of which landed left of center and most of which were straight-up yanked. Pull power will always be Lewis' specialization when at his best, but he needs to recapture his ability to handle heaters and drive certain pitches the other way. It's a fairly straightforward mandate but undoubtedly a much more challenging and complex matter to execute. There are a lot of uncertainties in play. Who will be his manager and hitting coach? Will he even be in a Twins uniform next year? Time will tell, but a little uncertainty and shaking things up could prove beneficial for Lewis as he looks to resurrect his wayward career at age 26, three years out from free agency. Explore previous entries in the "Road to a Rebound" series: Brooks Lee View full article