Nick Nelson

In his efforts to augment a bullpen that last year ranked last in the league in ERA, FIP and WHIP, Terry Ryan's moves essentially amounted to re-signing Matt Capps and adding Joel Zumaya to replace the departed Joe Nathan. That was hardly a recipe for guaranteed substantial improvement, and now with Zumaya's unfortunate yet unsurprising injury news, Ryan's passive approach to addressing this unit in a buyer's market looks all the more irresponsible. With their sole bullpen pickup gone for the year, the Twins may react by trying to find another outside arm they can plug in. They'll now only have to pay Zumaya $400K, and his contract included incentives that escalated to $1.7M, so you'd have to figure they have $1.3M left in the budget to spend on a replacement. That amount would have been plenty to sign a reliable relief guy such as Chad Qualls or Todd Coffey earlier in the offseason, but unfortunately all those hurlers are now off the board. The free agent market is exceedingly thin at this point, whittled down to such names as Michael Wuertz and Danys Baez – neither of whom have been effective since 2009. A trade would appear to be the more palatable solution. There are some interesting players who might be available, the most notable of them being Koji Uehara of the Rangers. Owner of a 2.56 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 140-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio over the past two seasons, Uehara is an elite right-handed reliever and Texas has been dangling him all winter. The problem is that he's set to earn $4 million this year, and it's hard to believe the Twins would stretch their budget that far given their reluctance to spend even a million on an additional arm to supplement the Zumaya signing. Then again, maybe this is the moment where the Twins finally put their money where their mouth is. They've claimed that they're serious about contending. They've claimed that there's wiggle room in their reduced budget, and that ownership is willing to add payroll over the course of the season. Well, then do it. Make a move and get a dependable right-handed arm for this bullpen, because right now it's tough to identify a single one. The time has come for Ryan to shed his past conservative tendencies and take an aggressive step aimed at putting his club in position for success. If he heads into the season with this current hodgepodge of bullpen question marks, and an inability to hold leads proves to be a crippling downfall for the Twins, all the good things Ryan has done during the offseason will be overshadowed by his baffling inactivity on the relief market. That would be a shame.

Haddyz, I'd go easy on Burnett. He's still only 24, and pretty much skipped Triple-A entirely. For comparison, Pat Neshek and Matt Guerrier didn't make theirs major-league debuts until they were 25. Whatever Burnett's flaws, he's young enough to overcome them, and he's certainly got some decent stuff. Taking his lumps at the big-league level over the past couple seasons may ultimately benefit him in the long-term.

STARTERS C: Joe Mauer 1B: Justin Morneau 2B: Alexi Casilla 3B: Danny Valencia SS: Jamey Carroll LF: Ben Revere CF: Denard Span RF: Josh Willingham DH: Ryan Doumit BENCH C: Drew Butera IF: Luke Hughes IF: Tsuyoshi Nishioka OF: Trevor Plouffe ROTATION SP: Carl Pavano SP: Francisco Liriano SP: Scott Baker SP: Nick Blackburn SP: Jason Marquis BULLPEN RP: Matt Capps RP: Glen Perkins RP: Joel Zumaya RP: Brian Duensing RP: Anthony Swarzak RP: Alex Burnett RP: Terry Doyle

As long as he's not getting himself picked off he should be fine. Nice avatar.

I actually think Duensing would be the first guy called upon, especially if he's pitching well in the bullpen. He's got a history of transitioning from reliever to starter very well, and the Twins really seem to like him. It would also be pretty easy to fill his role, as the Twins could simply call up Phil Dumatrait to take over LOOGY duties. Not saying this is necessarily the route I'd go, but you can't overlook the fact that Duensing has excelled when called upon in such situations previously.

The downside of moving Morneau off first base ostensibly is that you'd be replacing him with a worse defender. At one point, his glove would have been tough to lose, but last year he was thoroughly unimpressive in the field. He's probably still better than Doumit, but as long as RD can field grounders and scoop a few short-hops he's not going to kill you.

Great point, Jack.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?239-The-2008-Blueprint

In my attempts to determine a plausible best-case scenario for this year's Twins team, I've struggled to come up with real-life examples to use for comparison. On the forum earlier this week, Twins Daily member sam.ekstrom pointed to the 2008 Twins as a potential "doppelganger" for the 2012 squad. I've got to say, I find this to be an encouraging model for a positive outcome if things break reasonably well. Now, to be clear, that 2008 team was by no means great. They won 88 games, were a middle-of-the-road club by most statistical measures and came within a game of the playoffs only by virtue of playing in a pretty bad division. But then, coming off a 99-loss season, these current Twins can't very well aspire for true greatness. Instead, they can try to follow the course that turned them from outsiders to contenders four years ago. Expectations were low for the '08 Twins. They had finished 79-83 in 2007 – their worst mark in eight years – and had watched multiple franchise mainstays depart over the offseason. Yet, they went on to surprise the baseball world by pushing Chicago to a division tiebreaker game, and they didn't do it with outstanding pitching (they finished seventh out of 14 AL teams in ERA) or power hitting (last in the league with 111 homers). Instead, those Twins hit for average, ranking third in the AL at .279, and they were extremely opportunistic (.305/.380/.446 with runners in scoring position). Their pitching wasn't great, but it was good enough. Many point to this year's rotation as a crippling weakness, but take a look at the numbers from that club's starters and tell me that this year's bunch can't at least match them: Nick Blackburn: 33 GS, 11-11, 4.05 ERA, 1.36 WHIP Scott Baker: 28 GS, 11-4, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP Kevin Slowey: 27 GS, 12-11, 3.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP Glen Perkins: 26 GS, 12-4, 4.41 ERA, 1.47 WHIP Livan Hernandez: 23 GS, 10-8, 5.48 ERA, 1.63 WHIP Francisco Liriano: 14 GS, 6-4, 3.91 ERA, 1.40 WHIP Boof Bonser also made 12 starts and finished the year with an ERA near 6. This group was a beacon of neither durability (only Blackburn threw more than 173 innings) nor dominance (Liriano led all starters with a 7.9 K/9 rate and the Twins' staff as a whole averaged 6.1 whiffs per nine -- nearly identical to last year's 6.0). The 2008 starters were sufficiently effective because they threw strikes and benefited from solid defense. That's a formula that this year's rotation will seek to follow. Holding leads in the late innings is also important, and while the 2012 bullpen won't likely feature a performer as stellar as Joe Nathan, the overall unit should be able to match the effectiveness of an '08 group that ranked sixth in the AL in ERA, seventh in WHIP and 10th in K/9. From an offensive standpoint, this year's team will similarly have to find ways to push runs across without big power numbers. That 2008 group managed to finish third the AL in runs scored despite ranking last in homers, thanks largely to their ability to hit for average. That ought to be a strength this year for a lineup that will feature Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Ben Revere and Jamey Carroll, among others. Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit and Danny Valencia will need to chip in some pop and drive in runs, but they've shown the ability to do so in the past. The point of all this is to say that the Twins don't necessarily need Mauer to return to '09 form, or Morneau to go back to hitting 30 home runs, or Liriano to rack up 200 strikeouts. Rather, they can rely on a recipe that's worked for them in the past, which is hitting for a high average, converting on scoring opportunities, throwing strikes, playing strong defense, and hoping that a high-80s win total will be enough to give them a shot in the AL Central. [ATTACH=CONFIG]185[/ATTACH]

I don't buy this. The Twins haven't really had any long-term fixtures at either of those positions, aside from Pierzynski and Mauer at catcher. I don't think anyone's played more at SS for them over the past 20 years than Cristian Guzman.

I agree that it's a little alarming, but you've just got to hope that Plouffe can hit his way into a bigger role, Hughes can provide some pop off the bench, Mauer puts a few over the fence and the Twins plays to their home park (hitting for high average, playing defense and pitching well). They've succeeded without a ton of power in the past.

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?232-Bad-Days

Eight months after suffering a concussion in a home plate collision with Royals catcher Brayan Pena, Denard Span still says he has "bad days" in which his head doesn't feel quite right, but he has no way of knowing whether or not those symptoms stem from the incident in Kansas City. [ATTACH=CONFIG]171[/ATTACH]Span's situation is unique, in that he had dealt with migraines and vertigo back in 2009, long before taking that blow to the head on June 3rd last season. At the time, those issues were linked to an inner-ear condition. His current maladies might be attributable more to that problem than the concussion, but whatever the case, it's concerning that a 27-year-old continues to have – as he puts it – "days where I don't feel my best and have to find a way to fight through." Fighting through has been a buzz word for Span this spring. Clearly, he's a competitor and doesn't want to let this bring him down. But playing through symptoms is not always the best idea, for player or team. We saw that last year when Span went 2-for-35 in a two-week stretch after pushing himself to return, and when Justin Morneau struggled all season before re-triggering concussion symptoms on a diving attempt in the field in August. The Twins are hopeful that Span, who was getting on base at a .367 clip last year prior to the concussion, can combine with Jamey Carroll, who has posted a .368 OBP over the past two seasons in Los Angeles, to become a dynamic force at the top of the lineup, creating plenty of opportunities for Morneau, Joe Mauer and Josh Willingham. But if the bad days don't go away, the Twins will need to have a contingency plan in place – preferably someone with the ability to reach base at a solid clip, as they're looking to distance themselves from a 2011 season in which they got a .319 OBP from the leadoff spot and a .289 OBP from the No. 2 spot. This may have factored into the decision to bring Darin Mastroianni into the organization earlier this month. Mastroianni owns a .370 OBP in the minors, though there's plenty of room to doubt whether his on-base skills will translate to the big leagues. Joe Benson is another candidate to fill a spot in the outfield and at the top of the lineup should Span be sidelined. Benson got on base at a .388 clip in New Britain last year, drawing 56 walks in 472 plate appearances, but he looked totally overmatched in a late stint in Minnesota, drawing just three walks against 21 strikeouts in 74 plate appearances. When healthy and doing his thing, Span is an integral cog at the top of the Twins lineup, and his production is awfully tough to replace. When Mauer won the MVP with 96 RBI in 2009, there was no player he drove in more often than Span, who finished that season with career highs in OBP (.392) and runs (97). The success of Mauer and the rest of the lineup's run producers will be largely dependent on the success of the table-setters. If bad days continue to haunt Span this season, someone's going to need to step up and get on base in his stead, otherwise it's going to mean plenty of bad days for the Twins' lineup.

Wha? Those four departed players combined for 48 home runs with the Twins last year. Willingham and Doumit combined for 37.

I take full credit.

They have to pay Nishioka whether he's on the big-league roster or not. No one else is taking that salary. My frustration with this situation is similar to my frustration with paying Capps almost $5M. It's one thing to overpay a guy; it's another to cry poor and refuse to spend an extra couple million on areas of need because you're overpaying that guy. Is it more bothersome that the Twins are paying $3 million this year to a guy who might not even make the team because of a misjudgment, or that they won't call it a sunk cost and spend that money on someone who can actually help them?

The thing is that Doumit will often be starting at DH. In that situation, Gardy would lose his DH by shifting Doumit to catcher if Mauer had to come out of a game. The same would be true when their roles are flipped, with Mauer at DH and Doumit at catcher. Now, I'd argue that this isn't the worst thing in the world (you can call up a guy the next day if needed, and Butera can barely outhit a pitcher anyway) but it's something Gardy has always shown an extreme aversion to. Considering the durability issues with both Mauer and Doumit, I'd say it's all but certain the team will carry a third backstop.

Who's going to take him?

John, when he says "full RSS feeds," I think he's referring to having full posts show up in the feeds rather than just snippets. I've had several people ask me about this -- not sure where to change that setting.

We'll look into this. Thanks for the tip, guys.