Nick Nelson

Great post. I think a lot of people are exaggerating Willingham's trade value. As you mention, everyone had a shot at signing him during the offseason and he didn't draw much interest. Two good months aren't going to suddenly have teams across the league clamoring for him. The downsides that tempered his market – his age and his injury history – haven't gone away. This isn't the first time Willingham has started our at a Herculean pace. Check his halfway stats in '09 and '10. GMs are aware of that.

Fan Graphs statistics are not gospel. That is a highly theoretical number, and citing it as fact seems disingenuous for someone who is casting stones at another writer. I personally don't believe Mauer, at his current rate of production, will be worth $20 million to the Twins this year. And I certainly don't think he'll be worth it if he's still hitting this way and playing 1B/DH exclusively in four years.

Bedard is looking like a huge whiff. But the Twins had no reason to pay Jackson $10M, and they already have a cheaper Paul Maholm clone in Brian Duensing. It is sort of amazing how the Twins always seem to sign bottom-of-the-barrel free agent SPs while passing on guys who, while slightly more expensive, go on to have much more success. I wonder if the issue here is a true unwillingness to spend the extra $1.5M it would take to get a guy like Bedard, or if the player evaluation is so bad that they actually think they're getting a good bargain when they sign guys like Marquis, Ponson, Livan and Ortiz. I'm not sure which would be worse.

The Dodgers could do a lot better than Carroll. I know people around here seem to like the guy because he's steady in the field, but he's got a sub-.600 OPS and he's owed nearly $4M next year when he'll be 39. His contract is not an asset by any stretch.

I don't think it was a spectacular piece of writing or anything – the bits of humor all seemed forced – but it's not like his words aren't true. It's a cold dose of reality. The Twins are in a very bad spot.

Cool story Stew, thanks for sharing. I'd love to see the pictures you dug up.

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Prior to the start of the season, I called Jamey Carroll "the latest passenger on Minnesota's never-ending shortstop carousel," noting the position's instability over the past decade. As it would turn out, the veteran's ride didn't last long, as he ceased drawing regular starts at short by early May. Granted, this had as much to do with external factors – most notably Danny Valencia's struggles at third – as Carroll's own play. But it quickly became apparent that the light-hitting 38-year-old is not suited to be a quality regular at this point in his career. Even in the short-term, the Twins knew they would have to look elsewhere for a fixture at shortstop. They would like it be Brian Dozier. More accurately, they need to it to be Brian Dozier. Shortstop has been an organizational problem spot for many years, and the lack of talent at the position throughout the Twins' system is nearly as stark as the lack of pitching. Dozier is no great prospect, but he appears to be the club's only hope for respectability in the foreseeable future. [ATTACH=CONFIG]1092[/ATTACH]There's little hope in the minors. The Twins drafted Levi Michael, a shortstop from the University of North Carolina, with their first-round pick last year but he's currently hitting .203/.306/.259 as a 21-year-old in Single-A. His initial struggles as a pro don't doom him by any means, but they do make it highly unlikely that he'll rise fast enough to be a factor for the big-league club anytime soon. With Tsuyoshi Nishioka basically out of the picture (he's batting .202 in Triple-A), Michael is the only shortstop of note on the farm. Free agency probably won't cure this epidemic; that's where they found Carroll, who has been a disappointment and remains under contract for $3.75 million next year. Clint Barmes, another relatively affordable free agent shortstop who ended up signing with the Pirates for $10.5 million over two years, has been even worse than Carroll, as he's currently hitting .170 in Pittsburgh. It's tough to find good shortstops. That's been a hard-learned lesson for the Twins, who have opened with seven different players at the position over the past eight years and let the best of the bunch get away when they misguidedly handed J.J. Hardy to the Orioles after the 2010 campaign. With all the headaches and frustration that Ron Gardenhire and his staff have experienced while trying to settle on a serviceable player to man the diamond's most important position, you can bet that they will show plenty of patience with Dozier as he takes his lumps. He's is doing so right now, with just 10 hits in his last 55 at-bats (.182) and 16 strikeouts against one walk during that span. Parker wrote yesterday about the adjustments being made by the league against him. I suspect that Gardy will keep writing the rookie's name into the lineup despite his struggles, and that's the right approach. At age 25, it's time for Dozier to sink or swim, and this season gives the coaching staff an opportunity to let him do so without risking much. If Dozier can't make his own adjustments and prove himself as a legitimate big-league option, it'll be back to the drawing board. And considering the last eight years, that's a scary proposition.

Not to mention that Dickey didn't become a knuckleballer until later in his career. If Gray were to transform himself into another style of pitcher entirely, it's possible he might be a quality player. I don't think anyone actually sees that happening, do they?

Eighteen K in his last 10 innings. Just, wow.

Gray has pitched fine, all things considered, but does anyone really see him as a part of this team's future? I just don't understand why you wouldn't use that bullpen spot to get a good look at someone who may figure into the organization's long-term plans.

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]1040[/ATTACH]Early in the season, Justin Morneau looked a lot like he did last year at the plate. That is to say: he was tentative, consistently fooled by good breaking balls, and generally ineffective. At the end of April, he informed the team that his wrist had been ailing him for the better part of two weeks. He sat out a few days, then ended up on the disabled list, returning on May 16th. It would seem that the rest did him some good. Since coming back from the DL, Morneau has looked very much like his old self, and not just because he's once again playing first base on a regular basis after serving mostly as DH in the first month. He's locked in at the plate and crushing the ball in a way we haven't seen for almost two years. After going 3-for-5 with two homers and a double in Thursday night's loss to the White Sox, Morneau is hitting .290/.343/.742 with four homers, two doubles and 12 RBI in eight games. His eight total home runs put him on pace for 30 on the year despite the missed time. And while his plate approach was shaky earlier in the season, his recent at-bats have been marked by far more patience. It may be too early to declare that the vintage Morneau is officially "back." After all, he's still hitting only .248 on the season and we're talking about a 10-day stretch of improvement. But here's one thing I look at as a supremely positive sign: the first baseman's mammoth home run off of Will Ohman in the seventh inning on Wednesday. Now, Ohman isn't one of the top relievers in the league by any stretch, but he's been awfully good at shutting down left-handed hitters over the course of his career. And Morneau, well, he ain't been so good against southpaws lately. Last year he posted a meager .159/.183/.217 line against lefties and this year he'd been even worse, with a .059 batting average and 11-to-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 34 plate appearances. But Morneau absolutely obliterated an offering from Ohman, driving it an estimated 451 feet to straightaway center. According to ESPN's Stats and Info department, it was the longest home run hit by a left-handed batter against a left-handed pitcher this year. One at-bat can't prove anything. But it sure can make a statement.

Can't see it, unless they really, really liked what they saw. Gotta think they're pretty set on taking a pitcher unless Buxton is available.

Yet he's hit as many or more homers than Mauer every year of Mauer's career except '09. And Pierzynski has gone deep five more times than Joe this year at age 35. Not intended as a shot at Mauer – that's not his game – but I'd say A.J.'s ability to hit double-digit home runs almost every year into his mid-30s is a pretty good indicator that he's not been worn down by catching regularly for over 11 years. Sort of amazing, really. I think it's pretty hard to make the case that he's overrated.

Ha! I agree. It was like midnight and I just needed something.

Maybe. I'd say Diamond and Walters both have track records that are much more suggestive of big-league success. As an extreme fly ball pitcher with an underwhelming arsenal and high contact rate, DeVries has a steep hill to climb.

@ashburyjohn: That picture cracked me up.

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]1021[/ATTACH]The Minnesotan, Golden Gopher alum and baseball fan inside me all want to see Cole DeVries succeed in a Twins uniform. The analyst inside me knows that he probably won't. DeVries is a great story. He was signed by the Twins as an undrafted free agent back in 2006 after a solid career at the University of Minnesota, and has gradually worked his way up the organizational ladder. On Tuesday, the 27-year-old was called up to the majors to fill Jason Marquis' vacant roster spot. He'll make his big-league debut on Thursday in a start against the White Sox. The soft-tossing right-hander's minor-league track record is far from spectacular. In six seasons, he has gone 32-42 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He has proven extremely hittable in the high minors, allowing 413 hits in 366 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. That's an average of 10.2 H/9 – not exactly a change of pace for a Twins team that currently leads the American League in hits allowed. DeVries hangs in the mid-80s with his velocity and has largely survived by peppering the strike zone, especially this year as he's issued only seven walks in 46 2/3 innings for Rochester. MLB hitters are likely to tee off on his brand of soft serve, so I suspect his stay in the Twins' rotation will be short. Nevertheless, it's cool to see him get a chance to pitch on the big stage and perhaps – like Scott Diamond and P.J. Walters before him – he can catch an unfamiliar league by surprise and conjure up some good results for a desperate staff.