Nick Nelson

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2310[/ATTACH]Ron Gardenhire told reporters over the weekend that he would have "no problem" with Glen Perkins assuming closer duties for his club moving forward. Well, you'd hope not. Since Matt Capps was officially placed on the disabled list on July 17, Perkins has received the lion's share of save chances, converting all seven of his opportunities while registering a 1.74 ERA and holding opponents to a .136 batting average. In 20 2/3 innings during that span, he has posted a stellar 19-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Perkins has backed up his breakout 2011 campaign by posting nearly identical numbers here in 2012. Last year, in 61 2/3 innings, he allowed 17 earned runs (2.48 ERA) on 55 hits while striking out 65 and walking 21. This year, in 60 1/3 innings, he has allowed 17 earned runs (2.54 ERA) on 52 hits while striking out 66 and walking 15. Eerily similar. With that consistency, the lefty has established himself as one of the league's best relievers, and if there truly is some mystical mental trait required to successfully pitch in the ninth inning, he's got it. He has "closer" written all over him. That's great news for the Twins, especially from a financial standpoint. Back in March, they signed Perkins to a three-year, $10.3 million extension with a team option, so they control his rights through 2016. Here's how his salaries would reflect on payroll compared to other designated closers over the past six years: [TABLE] Year Closer Cost 2007 Joe Nathan $5.25M 2008 Joe Nathan $6M 2009 Joe Nathan $11.25M 2010 Jon Rauch & Matt Capps ~$4M + Wilson Ramos 2011 Joe Nathan & Matt Capps $18.4M 2012 Matt Capps $4.75M 2013 Glen Perkins $2.5M 2014 Glen Perkins $3.75M 2015 Glen Perkins $3.75M 2016 Glen Perkins $4.5M [/TABLE] Clearly, the Twins place a premium on the value of the closer role and they've paid handsomely for reliability there over the years. So the idea of Perkins locking up that spot over the next few seasons is exciting. It should be noted that, in his case, the above numbers are slight underestimates (he has performance bonuses built into his contract for games finished that haven't been made public), but nevertheless he'll be the most inexpensive ninth-inning man the Twins have employed for many years. This is as it should be. There's certainly no guarantee that the Twins will be competitive next year, and it makes no sense for a non-competitive team to spend big money for someone to close out wins. The funds saved on a closer can be redirected toward strengthening the bullpen's overall depth (they'll need a new "relief ace" type to fill Perkins' previous role – no small matter) and supplementing other areas of the ballclub. I think it's safe to say nobody has a problem with Perkins taking that closer role and running with it for the next several years.

In other words: pitch to contact! (ducks)

As the phrasing states, my default assumption is that his age is legit. Unfortunately, because of his physical maturity and the fact that no test has been able to prove his age beyond a shadow of doubt, it will remain a talking point. I don't think you'll hear it throughout his career, but while he's putting up historic power numbers as a teenager in leagues filled with more experienced players, it's a thought that will inevitably linger.

Lord knows that if the Twins weren't telling them not to, Blackburn, Silva and Slowey would have all been racking up the strikeouts with that swing-and-miss stuff. You can't actually believe this, can you? Look, coaches and players, when asked about this, have explained the philosophy in detail. Are you so blinded by the word "contact" in the phrase that you simply refuse to believe them? "All of a sudden, the average fan says that's a bad philosophy," Anderson said. "They want strikeouts. Well, guys like Blackburn and Pavano, that's not who they are."

Perez has a point. I recall that the Indians were one of the last teams bidding against the Twins for Willingham. Eventually they decided they didn't like his defense. Now they're starting Shelley Duncan and Esquiel Carrera in LF. If I was an Indians player or fan, I'd be pissed too.

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]2283[/ATTACH]Prior to the start of every season, I like to go through the Twins organization and rank my Top 10 prospects, offering a glimpse of the farm system's strength and providing my personal take on the hierarchy of the club's best up-and-coming players. Now that the regular seasons of every minor-league affiliate have come to a close, it seems fitting to look back the this year's Top 10 and see how they all fared. Last year, this was a depressing exercise, as the vast majority of the organization's brightest prospects were plagued by injuries, performance issues, developmental setbacks, or all of the above. This year, you'll find these season recaps (beyond the guys at the back end of the list) to be much, much more positive, which is a big reason that I'm feeling far better about the team's outlook than I was a year ago. ~~~ 10. Brian Dozier, SS AAA: 48 G, .232/.286/.337, 2 HR, 15 R 17 RBI, 3/5 SB MLB: 84 G, .234/.271/.332, 6 HR, 33 R, 33 RBI, 9/11 SB I was reluctant to include Dozier in my Top 10, as I wasn't blown away by his skills or by his solid numbers as a 24-year-old in Single-A and Double-A last year, but I plugged him at No. 10 largely because the Twins seemed so dang high on him. It looks like that was a mistake. After an ordinary start at Triple-A, the shortstop was surprisingly called up to the majors, where he played horribly for three months before being demoted back to Rochester and limping through the final weeks. It's too soon to pass judgment after just half a season in the big leagues, but at the end of the day, Dozier is an unheralded 25-year-old who has posted a 138-to-58 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 210 games above Single-A despite the fact that plate discipline was supposedly one of his principal strengths. It was a disastrous season, and at this point he shouldn't be considered a realistic part of the club's future plans. 9. Alex Wimmers, SP AA: 4.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 4.15 ERA, 3/2 K/BB, 1.85 WHIP Like Dozier, Wimmers had a rough season, although in this case health was the entire story. After shaking off extreme control issues and showing some promise late in the 2011 campaign, the former first-round pick made only one start in New Britain, rehabbed for a couple months, came back and tried to make one start in rookie ball (he lasted only six batters) and that was it. He underwent Tommy John surgery in August and won't be back in the picture until 2014. Yet another unfortunate break for the Twins' minor-league pitching corps. 8. Adrian Salcedo, SP A+: 25.1 IP, 6.39 ERA, 14/15 K/BB, 1.90 WHIP Salcedo also had his season ruined by injuries. He suffered a broken nose when he was hit by a comebacker in May, and went on to battle arm problems for the remainder of the season, limiting him to just 30 innings between Ft. Myers and the rookie-level Gulf Coast League. Ultimately, it goes down as a lost season of development for the right-hander, who didn't throw a competitive pitch after July 11. On the bright side, he's still only 21 so there's plenty of time to bounce back. 7. Oswaldo Arcia, OF A+: 55 G, .309/.376/.517, 7 HR, 22 R, 31 RBI, 4/9 SB AA: 69 G, .328/.398/.557, 10 HR, 54 R, 67 RBI, 3/5 SB Here's your first bright spot on the list, and it's almost blinding. I wasn't totally sold on Arcia as a top prospect at this time last year but his monstrous 2012 performance has left no doubt. This kid is one of the most promising hitters in all of the minors. He moved up to Double-A after raking in Ft. Myers, and his performance at New Britain was simply transcendent. Although he didn't collect enough at-bats after his promotion to officially qualify for the Eastern League leaderboard, Arcia ranked third in OPS among players with 250-plus plate appearances. That's particularly impressive when you consider that he's 21 and everyone else in the top seven on that list is 24 or above. Arcia hasn't shown spectacular power or plate discipline, but he's a pure hitter. His sweet left-handed swing and his ability to hit for gaudy averages at such a young age are reminiscent of Jason Kubel when he was a prospect. 6. Liam Hendriks, SP AAA: 106.1 IP, 2.20 ERA, 82/28 K/BB, 0.98 WHIP MLB: 56 IP, 6.11 ERA, 36/16 K/BB, 1.64 WHIP If these rankings were made based on statistics alone, Hendriks surely would have been a top five prospect and possibly in the top three. Despite his stellar numbers throughout the minors (a trend that certainly carried over to Triple-A this year), Hendriks lacks dominant stuff and that's been on display during his time in the majors. He's been pummeled for 76 hits – including 11 homers – in 56 innings, and outside of a few quality outings he's given few indications that he belongs in a big-league rotation at this point. Hendriks will turn 24 this offseason, so he's still younger than a lot of rookies. His tumultuous time in the majors will give him some things to focus on during the offseason, and hopefully he'll be able to make the improvements necessary to become a solid mid-rotation option, which the Twins could sorely use. 5. Joe Benson, OF AA: 37 G, .184/.268/.305/, 3 HR, 13 R, 20 RBI, 3/7 SB AAA: 28 G, .179/.269/.316, 2 HR, 30 R, 36 RBI, 4/4 SB Benson may have had the most disappointing season of anyone on this list, and that's saying something after we've looked at Dozier, Wimmers and Salcedo. A supremely athletic center fielder who played well enough last year in New Britain to earn a September call-up and later rank 99th on Baseball America's listing of the game's Top 100 prospects, Benson took massive strides backward in 2012. He started out horribly in Rochester, was demoted to New Britain, broke his wrist and spent the rest of the season rehabbing and struggling. The good news is that the Twins have enough outfield prospects that Benson's development isn't crucial, but of course having a guy drop so far in one year is very unfortunate. His outstanding tools and his youth (still only 24) keep his prospect status intact, but he'll probably drop out of most Top 10s for next year. His lack of strike zone control is a huge red flag. 4. Kyle Gibson, SP A: 7 IP, 2.57 ERA, 7/1 K/BB, 1.00 WHIP AAA: 6.2 IP, 9.45 ERA, 10/1 K/BB. 1.80 WHIP In my eyes, Gibson was the organization's top pitching prospect before succumbing to Tommy John surgery last summer and after. The kid just oozes talent and he showed it this year in limited action upon returning to the field. Between his initial rehab stint in rookie ball and his brief appearances in Single-A and Triple-A, Gibson amassed an impressive 33-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 28 1/3 innings. He'll pitch in the Arizona Fall League and hopefully be on track next spring, ready to contend for a spot in Minnesota's rotation. 3. Eddie Rosario, 2B A-: .296/.345/.490, 12 HR, 60 R, 70 RBI, 11/22 SB Rosario wasn't able to put up the same ridiculous numbers in Beloit this year as he did last year in Elizabethton (21 HR, 1.068 OPS in 67 games) but nobody really expected that. Unlike his teammate on that E-Town club, Miguel Sano, Rosario doesn't profile as a high-end slugger, but he showed plenty of offensive ability in his first season as a second baseman, hitting close to .300 while ripping 32 doubles and 12 homers despite missing significant time after taking a baseball to the face. Defense is going to be the biggest question for Rosario moving forward. If he can stick in the middle infield – or better yet, become an asset there – he's going to have a lot of value, especially to a Twins organization that has really struggled to produce quality infielders. 2. Aaron Hicks, OF AA: 129 G, .286/.384/.460, 13 HR, 100 R, 61 RBI, 32/43 SB After he turned in an underwhelming campaign as a 21-year-old in Ft. Myers last year, many started to lose faith in Hicks. He dropped out of Baseball America's Top 100 (after appearing at No. 19 in 2010 and No. 45 in 2011). Some Twins prospect gurus began to sour on him. Still in love with his outstanding tools, I kept him in the No. 2 spot but noted that if he couldn't turn a corner in 2012, his athletic prowess wouldn't save him from sliding down my rankings. Fortunately, Hicks responded this year in a big way, putting together the kind of season we'd all been hoping for. As a 22-year-old in Double-A (where the average player is about three years older), Hicks set career highs in home runs, RBI, runs scored, stolen bases and pretty much any other statistic you can think of. He ranked fourth among qualifying Eastern League hitters in OPS and crossed the plate 100 times in 129 games. For a player his age to be drawing 80 walks in three straight seasons is pretty amazing. Throw in his exceptional speed and his elite defensive skills, and you've got yourself a hell of a prospect. The great thing about Hicks is that even if a few of his skills don't pan out, he can still be a solid big-league regular. If they all pan out, he's a superstar. 1. Miguel Sano, 3B A-: 129 G, .258/.373/.521, 28 HR, 75 R, 100 RBI, 8/11 SB Sano struck out 144 times in 553 plate appearances and his defense remains extremely suspect as he committed 42 errors in 125 games. The negatives pretty much stop there. His prodigious power produced 28 homers this year (not including last night's three-run moonshot in the playoffs), which is nine more than the next highest finisher in the Midwest League. Did I mention that he is only 19? No other teenager in the league hit more than 12 homers. Assuming his age is legit, Sano is so young that it's difficult to even pay attention to his flaws. All you can do is look at the power numbers posted against much more experienced pitchers and daydream about the way he'll terrorize the league when he's a few years older and playing in the majors.

How in the world can you keep Arcia off the list when he puts up those numbers in Double-A as a 21-year-old? He certainly looks like a better prospect than Rosario right now (not a slight against Eddie).

Trust me when I say that there is absolutely zero chance of this happening.

You need to understand the timelines here. The Twins started pressing Liriano about pitching to contact AFTER he showed up to camp in 2011 out of shape and unable to throw strikes. It's not like they were pestering him throughout the 2010 season to change his approach. They might have mentioned something during the offseason about wanting him to pitch more efficiently and last deeper into games, but I hardly think that's worth criticizing. And the funniest thing about all of this is that IF Liriano had been able to heed the Twins' advice last year he probably would have had a fine season. He allowed the lowest BABIP and line drive rate of his career, and was basically fine when the threw the ball where batters could hit it. Liriano did the exact opposite of what the Twins asked and had a horrendous season because of it. How can people ignore this??

In order to put stock into Span's WAR (at least the FanGraphs version), you have to buy into the premise that he's an elite defensive center fielder. His 6.1 UZR score (accrued in a 100-game sample) rates out to 8.0 UZR/150, which would rank him third out of 17 qualifying MLB center fielders. This is one of the biggest reasons his WAR is so high. Do GMs around the league actually consider Span an elite defender in center? I doubt it.

It's based on personnel, not philosophy. The Twins were not "pitching more to miss bats" in 2006, they had more strikeout pitchers. Currently they do not have many guys on their staff capable of high strikeout rates. If your argument is that the Twins should seek out more hurlers with the ability to miss bats, it's a very valid one. But there is simply no evidence that their coaching approach has had any meaningful impact on a specific pitcher's strikeout numbers. Last year, they asked Liriano to be more efficient (well warranted after an 80-pitch, three-inning ST outing) and stop trying to nibble around the edges so much. In other words: throw the ball over the plate. I'm not sure what exactly you think pitch-to-contact means. Telegraph the location of the ball so that the batter can hit it?

He had elbow problems around this time last year. With a clean bill of health, it's going to be a different story.

Might as well trade Hicks.Twins don't need a CF with a cannon throwing arm with speed and xbh/obp power. Have Ben Revere, and that's enough. Believe me, I'm not excited about the idea of dealing Hicks, but you've got to give up a lot of value in order to trade for a young, ace-caliber pitcher and the club does have some outfield depth.

Such as? Looking up the names of the people on the team's medical staff doesn't really illuminate anything. I guess the quotes from former players are somewhat damning, but I have hard time believing it doesn't happen in other organizations. My understanding is that friction between doctors & players/coaches is fairly common. And even if it's not, I haven't seen one post on this thread where anyone's been able to legitimately pinpoint a consistent source of blame for these medical mishaps.

If you believe that, then you're missing the point. So is Reusse. I don't see anyone here claiming that Slama is definitely going to be a great reliever in the majors. In fact, I'm very willing to believe that the Twins' evaluation of him may be correct. But I don't trust them enough that I'm going to simply take their word for it. It simply doesn't hurt anything to give him a shot that he's clearly earned through performance.

I'd probably trade a package built around Hicks for Anderson, and have to think Oakland would strongly consider it.

The funny thing is that when they called up Perdomo the number one thing they said they liked about him is that he has a "rubber arm." How is that a meaningful benefit when you have 9 relievers?

So Ryan's argument is that calling up a reliever with a 1.99 career ERA who has the highest strikeout rate in his entire league would be a slight to the thoroughly mediocre Luis Perdomo and... Esmerling Vasquez? How is Vasquez even related to this discussion? He's a starter. These excuses just don't hold water. It's very possible that when Ryan said "he'll get his chance" he meant with another organization, because I have a hard time seeing how 29 teams pass on the chance to nab him for free in the Rule 5 now that he's healthy.

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