Nick Nelson

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2746[/ATTACH]With as many as four spots needing to be filled in the rotation, it figured that Terry Ryan – with his traditionally risk-averse nature in free agency – would target low-cost pitchers with upside who could be acquired on one-year deals. This strategy makes sense for a couple reasons: it adds multiple options to the starting pitching mix without requiring huge commitments, and hurlers looking for the one-year make-good deal ought be more apt to sign with a club that offers such wide-open opportunity in the rotation. If that was indeed Ryan's intended tact, he can't be pleased to see the Cubs aggressively following the same course. Already, Chicago has snatched up two of the most intriguing pitchers in this category. A few weeks ago, it was Scott Baker. And yesterday, the Cubs announced that they had inked Scott Feldman to a one-year deal. Much like Baker, Feldman is a pitcher with stretches of past success who is coming off a down year and looking to recoup some value. And much like Baker, Feldman hauled in more guaranteed cash than expected at $6 million. Yes, six million bucks for a guy who posted a 5.09 ERA last year, owns a 4.81 career mark, and has only once thrown more than 151 innings in a major-league season. Feldman offers some appeal as a guy who can operate in a swingman role and generally posts pretty decent peripherals, but he's nothing close to a reliable bet. His ERA has been above five in four of the past six seasons. The total seems somewhat extreme, at least from the perspective of an organization with less money to throw around than the Cubs, but perhaps only by the preset standards we entered this offseason with. As early names have come off the board, the numbers have ranged from eyebrow-raising to jaw-dropping. Purported reclamation projects are commanding as much as established mid-tier guys have in the past. We're to the point where Feldman's deal is actually being lauded by some as a value signing. If the trend continues, the Twins' money isn't going to go very far in free agency even if they hold steady with their budget, which is hardly assured. The inflated prices on the open market will also surely have an auxiliary effect on the trade market, where clubs with cost-controlled pitching can now increase their demands. At one point I thought a player like James Shields might come at a relative discount given that he's owed $21 million over the next two years, but now his contract is starting to look like a real bargain that many general managers could be competing to acquire. This environment leaves a team with finite funds and few palatable internal pitching options in an extremely tough spot. Even if Ryan has the green-light to spend, it's not clear that he should be splurging on the kind of deals that may be required to lock up adequate starters unless ownership is willing to commit to long-term payroll increases that will enable him to continue to build around large contracts for aging players. Yet, if Ryan shies away from the market, he's most likely submitting to at least another year of lousy on-field performance and the inevitable revenue drains that will come along with it. Additionally, he'd be doubling down on the ability of his own personnel to identify and develop young pitching talent for a rebuild, something they simply haven't done in recent years. The Cubs' signings of Baker and Feldman are bad news for the Twins, and not necessarily because Minnesota should have signed those players. The financial terms are highly troubling and indicative that there's going to be no such thing as a low-risk signing on the pitching market this winter. That will leave Ryan and Co. with almost no room for error.

Figgins is interesting in the same way that a car wreck is interesting. Dude makes Nick Punto look like a stud.

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]2723[/ATTACH]Ask Terry Ryan what his payroll limitation is for next year and he'll tell you that he doesn't view payroll as a limitation. It's his way of sidestepping an important question, possibly at the behest of an ownership that has notoriously shied away from big spending. Ryan can downplay the importance of allotted budget and the significance of $85 million versus $100 million all he wants, but there's no escaping the fact that his level of financial flexibility will be a key determinant in the extent to which he's able to address the roster's various deficiencies, particularly in the short term. Because when you have to scour external avenues for players as the Twins clearly must, money talks, and more money means better, more reliable players. That's especially true when you're trying to lure said players to a potentially undesirable destination, such as a flyover territory club with nearly 200 losses over the past two seasons. The above seems obvious, but Ryan would apparently have us believe that it's a minor factor in his offseason planning. He would point, I'm sure, to the numerous teams with sub-$90 million payrolls that have found their way into the playoffs. He would likely point to successful teams that he himself assembled for much less than that. But these are different times. Competitiveness in the AL Central is kicking up a notch with the Tigers throwing cash around and the Royals looking more serious about contending. Meanwhile, the struggling Twins don't have a wealth of MLB-ready minor leaguers to step in and help turn things around on the cheap. They're currently caught in a transitional period where quality contributors of the past -- guys like Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano and Nick Blackburn -- have either moved on or ceased to be effective, and there's no "next wave" internally poised to take over the reigns. Not next year, not the year after. This farm system is bereft of high-end arms, and even if you assume a best-case scenario with the likes of Kyle Gibson and Liam Hendriks, they're still a couple pieces short of respectability in the rotation. If the Twins want to improve their decimated pitching corps to the point where it has a chance to be even a mid-tier unit any time in the near future, they'll have to hit the open market with authority, and early indications suggest that it might take a sizable chunk of change to to do so. The old bargain bin route would be the essential equivalent to a white flag. Ryan talks often about exploring all avenues, but even with savvy scouting and great luck, you're not going to find more than a couple impact players through minor-league deals, waiver pickups and the Rule 5 draft. The front office needs to think bigger, and I'm sure they're aware of that, regardless of any posturing to the contrary. There's just no way around it: to upend this two-year stretch of misery, Ryan will need to spend. He'll need to spend wisely, of course, but he will absolutely need to spend. The freedom he's given to do so should serve as a simple, clear indicator of the ownership's desire to right the ship in short order.

Well said. Too often, I see TR pointing to things like the waiver wire and the Rule 5 draft as if they're legitimate methods of acquiring impact players. Beyond that, he calls out guys like Florimon as if they're actual solutions. Who is he trying to kid? If you can't develop your own talent you need to buy external talent. Sometimes you do have to spend your way out of a hole rather than plugging your ears and pretending it doesn't exist.

So we've reached a point where the Royals are showing more urgency to address their rotation than the Twins. Aye.

This seems like a pretty ridiculous statement to me. Spending money and acquiring good players will certainly help things in 2013. Better players make the team better. Whether spending money will be enough to get them back into contention is another story, but in my view they're pretty close with two of the three units (I disagree the notion that this team has a "crap bullpen"). To be clear, the full-out rebuild that you recommend requires the Twins to: A) Draft and develop quality pitching, something they haven't done recently. Identify quality pitching prospects to acquire, something they haven't done recently. C) Keep a quality offensive core intact, while Joe Mauer begins to age past his prime. I think you're underestimating the challenges and risks involved with your plan. The Twins could easily tread water for years in the name of rebuilding and find themselves in the same spot three seasons down the line, only their best player will be 33 instead of 30. I certainly don't think the Twins should be making moves that are completely aimed at short-term contention, but signing free agents pitchers to three-year deals when you've got almost nothing in the pipeline is hardly irresponsible.

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]2712[/ATTACH]The free agent market has been slow to develop early in the offseason, with very few high-profile signings in the books as Thanksgiving approaches. Things should start kicking into gear now that the Winter Meetings are just two weeks away, but it's worth wondering whether the first few contracts are indicators of how the offseason climate will shape up once the dominos really begin to fall. When the Cubs lured Scott Baker away from the Twins earlier in the month, many were surprised that it took $5.5 million in guaranteed money to do so. That's just more than you typically see going to a mostly unproven player coming off major surgery. The baseball world did another double-take last week when Melky Cabrera signed a two-year, $16 million deal with the Jays. The outfielder's performance over the past couple seasons has justified that type of payday and then some, but is tainted by a 50-game PED suspension. Two guys with sizable question marks getting big guaranteed money. At that rate, just imagine what will happen when the established, healthy and relatively spot-free free agents begin to sign. Now, by nature, contracts signed in November tend to come out higher than expected. The players who sign early are generally coveted by particular clubs that will put forth an "offer they can't refuse" to finish the deal. That might be what we're seeing here. Then again, this also might be a sign that money will be flowing freely this winter. Every MLB club is in line to receive a major revenue boost in a year when new TV deals with Fox and Turner Sports kick in. Factor in other streams and basic inflation, and we could be looking at an overall market shift toward higher spending. If that's the case, the $20 million that we expect the Twins to have in the coffers might not go as far as we'd hoped. But we won't be able to make that assumption until a few more contracts are inked and we have a more representative sample to consider. At the end of the day, it might just turn out that the Cubs and Jays were very eager to make a splash.

We didn't do anything to "protect" Thrylos that we wouldn't have done for any other member in the same position. Again, we don't want users insulting eachother, regardless of the reasoning behind it. Are you under the impression that this is the first time we've locked a thread because ad hominem attacks were going too far?

He's not quite an "avowed homophone." Escobar claims that the message wasn't intended to be offensive and that he has no problem with gays. Whether you choose to believe him is up to you. Regardless of his true feelings on the matter, he's entitled to his opinion and as long as he doesn't project it or turn it into an issue again I don't see why it should have any bearing on the Twins' desire to acquire him to play baseball. Escobar's contract, to me, is one of the most appealing things about him. If he turns things around and proves to be a good citizen, you've got the option to bring him back at the same very reasonable price. If not, you cut ties and move on. I don't know if there have been any publicized incidents but my understanding is that attitude/clubhouse issues contributed to Atlanta getting rid of him.

If you believe the Twins have $20 million to spend this offseason, Baker would have consumed over 25% of their available funds. This is a guy coming off major surgery who has never shown sustained durability in the past and who only once or twice in his career (over partial seasons) has performed well enough to be called a "solid #2 starter" with a straight face. That's where the comparisons to Webb and Sheets fail. From the standpoint of myself and others who are shocked by how much the Cubs paid, Baker just doesn't have the track record to justify that kind of guaranteed money in his situation, especially for a team that is desperately looking for innings. A reasonable club option for 2104 might have changed matters a bit, but it's not there. This is obviously a matter of opinion, Lev. If you think Baker's worth that kind of dough, more power to you. Could easily end up being the case. But I don't see why you're having such a hard time understanding why most people don't.

Riverbrian: I think you're drastically understating the impact that Escobar (producing at career levels) can have compared to Pedro Florimon and Co. You need to look past batting average and understand that over the course of a full season he's going to get on base a lot more, provide more pop and generally just be more of an asset in the lineup. He's also an accomplished defender whereas it's difficult to trust the glovework of anyone the Twins currently have. The notion that all non-star players are essentially interchangeable is strange to me. The way you beat other teams and win divisions is by having superior talent, even if only incrementally better. You can't overlook any opportunity to improve in any area. As far as Escobar's homophobia thing goes, I'm as bothered by it as anyone, but it was - to my knowledge - an isolated incident and we can't dismiss the possibility that he learned a lesson from the whole ordeal. It's worth noting that Delmon Young was known as a major problem child when the Twins acquired him and he had very few off-the-field issues during his time here. His performance was a much bigger issue than his attitude.

I don't really get what you were hoping for. The thread wasn't deleted. It's still there, for everyone to see just how completely wrong (and arrogant) Thrylos was. But there was no need to let people keep piling on, flinging insults and puffing their chest to say "I told you so." That's the kind of stuff that turns away new users. This is a place to discuss baseball. Those of us who've been familiar with Thrylos know this isn't the first time this has happened. He reports "exclusive news," it usually turns out to be wrong, then he disappears for a while. I'm sure we now won't see him pop up for some time, so you really don't have to worry about him. Maybe the lesson to be learned here is, don't believe everything you read on the forum, especially when it's unsourced and from people who haven't won your trust. If something comes up that we believe to be credible, we'll acknowledge it and probably move it to the front page of the site. We can't be held responsible for everything that people post on the message board, although I think in the future we'll probably handle a situation like this a little differently. Speculation needs to be presented as such or it will be removed.

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]2699[/ATTACH]In their blockbuster trade with the Blue Jays earlier this week, the Marlins acquired a player who has been discussed in some circles as a potential target for the Twins: Yunel Escobar. The 30-year-old shortstop is coming off a rather tumultuous year in Toronto, but there's no denying that he's got some legitimate talent, which has been in short supply at the shortstop position here in Minnesota. Interestingly, the Marlins won't be using Escobar at short; instead they'll plug in young Adeiny Hechavarria, also acquired in the deal. The plan for now is to shift Escobar over to third, but Miami is reportedly open to flipping him and his $5 million salary. If he's available at a reasonable price, the Twins would have to at least consider. With a .282/.353/.390 career hitting line and very solid defense, he would represent a clear upgrade at a very problematic position, and he's under team control at a reasonable price through 2015. However, acquiring him also might require the Twins to go against their long-standing philosophy of focusing on character and clubhouse chemistry. I haven't met Yunel Escobar personally so I can't say with certainty that he's a bad dude, but he has a reputation as a malcontent and it didn't help that this season he was suspended for having hateful, homophobic language painted on his face during a game. Perhaps the Twins should welcome an opportunity to shake up their standards. By all accounts, the teams of the last two seasons have been filled with nice guys, but nevertheless the results were lousy. Maybe it's time for this front office to start focusing solely on production and on-field value, while dealing with auxiliary issues as they come up. Does Escobar provide enough on-field value to make pursuing him worthwhile? That's a very fair question in light of his performance this year. But as Terry Ryan and Co. make their evaluations, I hope they won't rule him out simply because of attitude problems. It's time to start prioritizing the quality of the product on the field over the climate in the locker room.

None of those examples fit the criteria I laid out. All of those pitchers have been workhorses at times in their careers, with multiple 220+ inning seasons. Baker has NO history of sustained durability and unlike Sheets/Webb he doesn't profile as an ace when healthy. Those are the things that teams understandably gamble big guaranteed bucks on. Harder to understand with Baker, and I say that as a fan of his. I think you and others are getting way too caught up with the term "overpay." The Cubs paid what they had to in order to get him to sign. The amount was higher than most expected, more than most people in his situation get, and more than the Twins probably should have paid. We won't know if Chicago overpaid until after the fact.

I dunno. To me, the lack of an option is pretty much a deal-breaker. Forces the Twins to assume way too much risk. Say he struggles early in the year but gradually regains his command/velocity and starts to dominate in the final months, which would be fairly typical of a Tommy John survivor. Suddenly Baker's ready to hit the market with a head full of steam, while the Twins got one mostly lousy season out of him and are back to the drawing board. If they truly walked away because Baker wouldn't do the option for 2014, it might also say something about their expectations of contending next year.