Nick Nelson

I'm not saying that at all. I was clearly very frustrated with the approach they took this offseason, and think they would have given themselves a much better chance at a .500+ finish by acquiring higher caliber players. But the fact that they didn't does not mean they are sure to fail. Why is that a problem? From my perspective, relevance is the goal this year. My form of "optimism" is believing that the Twins can be a competitive team that keeps things interesting and provides some promising signs for the future along the way. It's a low and attainable standard that is appropriate after a 95-loss season. I'd be perfectly satisfied with that in a bridge year, and while I know some people have a "playoffs or nothing" attitude, there would be many positive ramifications from that type of season. I agree that Indians fans have "MUCH more reason for hope" as far as winning the division or contending for a championship. All four teams in the Central probably have a better team on paper, as I've said. That doesn't mean it's certain, or even likely, that they will all finish ahead of the Twins. I agree. It's an extreme and unlikely example. The Orioles improved by 24 wins from one season to the next. However, if the Twins even did HALF that they would be close to .500 which I'd view as a success.

Oops, thank you! Fixed. Definitely want to credit him properly as his work is outstanding.

They do. Every player.

It's just crazy to me that people can try to state with authority the number of games the Twins will win this year. Everyone's entitled to opinion, but must understand that they're ultimately random guesses. No one expected the Twins to win 85 games in 2000. No one expected them to lose 99 in 2011. No one expected the Orioles to win 93 last year. The Twins might have the worst team in the AL Central on paper (though I think Schoenfield exaggerates their lack of talent quite a bit), but the composition of this roster isn't all that different from some that have won the division before. When you really take a hard look at the players on this roster, is it really that hard to believe the Twins could be respectable if healthy?

Great thread and great info. Where'd you get all this from?

I'm really starting to think it's going to be Pelfrey. That would be a great story. Opening Day starter 11 months after Tommy John surgery? Has that ever happened before?

Wouldn't have taken much to get him. But I doubt the Twins were all that interested. Right or wrong, they feel comfortable with the group they've got in the middle infield (Carroll, Dozier, Florimon, Escobar). They've made that clear.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1374-TD-Top-Prospects-1-Miguel-Sano

Age: 19 (DOB: 5/11/93) 2012 Stats A: .258/.373/.521, 28 HR, 100 RBI, 75 R, 8/11 SB ETA: 2015 [ATTACH=CONFIG]3260[/ATTACH] Since his days crushing baseballs in the Dominican Republic, where he attracted the attention of numerous pro scouts, everything about Miguel Sano has screamed "Superstar." The 2011 documentary Ballplayer: Pelotero followed a 16-year-old Sano, along with another teenage Dominican prospect, as they sought to impress the right people and land big major-league guarantees. The film – which I highly recommend – provides a sometimes sobering glimpse into a world where kids are desperately trying to make a name for themselves and earn that bonus that will take care of their families. From the perspective of a Twins fan, watching Sano in the movie is a treat. He's a smiley and charmingly cocky kid, larger than life in a culture where baseball is everything. It becomes obvious that Sano is one of the more special talents to come along in the region, on another plane entirely from the typical promising Latin prospect. The Twins reinforced this notion when they ultimately stole him away from the Pirates – who lost their position as front-runners to sign him by engaging in shady negotiation tactics – with a massive $3.15 million signing bonus. It was less than Sano initially expected to get, but still ranked as the second-highest bonus ever for a Dominican and by far Minnesota's largest investment in the international market. Less than four years later, that decision has become the biggest reason for optimism regarding the organization's future. Sano has taken American baseball by storm, quickly developing into one of the game's best power-hitting prospects despite the fact that he won't take his first legal drink for another 15 months. The Good At 6'4" and more than 230 pounds, Sano has already grown into an imposing figure of the Frank Thomas ilk and at 19 he may not be done growing. His prodigious size and unparalleled strength enable him to unleash a ferocious upper-cut swing that sends balls sailing off into the distance like Wilson in Castaway. In a FanGraphs report on Sano written after watching Twins instructs late last year, Kiley McDonald – who has a scouting background – stated that the third baseman's "power is an easy 80" (on a 20-80 scale) and added this: Sano is the prototypical slugger, capable of punishing mistake pitches and launching highlight reel bombs in instances where it doesn't even look like he's swinging with full effort. He showed the most power in the Midwest League by a longshot last year, piling up 28 homers and 100 RBI in 129 games to lead the way in both categories by a wide margin. In addition, he took massive strides with his ability to lay off bad pitches and draw free passes, boosting his walk rate to 14.5 percent after posting a 7.8 mark at Elizabethton in 2011. These factors, and more, have earned Sano the respect of baseball's scouting authorities. He slid up from No. 23 to No. 12 on MLB.com's Top 100 Prospect list this year and in all likelihood he'll move up from No. 18 in Baseball America's rankings when they're released later this month. The Bad While his transcendent power display was amazing, Sano did exhibit some notable flaws in his game while taking his first stab at full-season competition. He struck out in over a quarter of his plate appearances, racking up 144 whiffs. This contributed to a ho-hum .258 batting average. His defense at third base was beyond sloppy, as he was charged with an eye-popping 42 errors for a lousy .884 fielding percentage. It's difficult to hold the areas where Sano struggled against him, given his age. He was a teenager with 120 pro games under his belt facing players who were generally older and more experienced. Still, these are not superficial concerns. Sano has struck out at a high rate everywhere he's played, and while there's a slim chance he sticks at third it is widely believed he'll end up moving somewhere his offense stands out a little less. Said McDonald in the previously linked report: "His hands are okay, but his feet are just not quick enough to play third base … right field or first base look like his positional possibilities." Unlike many of the players ranked below him on our list, Sano doesn't have an especially well rounded game. He's never going to be a burner, he's probably never going be a contact hitter and he's almost certainly never going to be a defensive asset. His off-the-charts power and emerging patience make him special, but if his weaknesses persist or worsen they could hold him back. I'd be remiss not to mention the lingering questions about whether Sano's age is actually legitimate (a topic well covered in the aforementioned documentary) and when you see his enormous frame in person it's easy to lend validity to those concerns. If he were actually 23 rather than 19, his progression thus far would be less impressive to an extent. However, given that he's done everything in his power to disprove such rumors, it seems only cynical at this point to doubt him. The kid is a physical freak. Let's embrace it. The Bottom Line It is difficult to overstate Sano's potential. The Twins have not had a hitting prospect of this caliber come along in some time, and while he's still probably multiple years away from appearing in the majors, the optimist would view that as only more time to grow, both physically and mentally. Given the growth he's already experienced in his short career, that's almost scary.

No, I think your methodology is extremely flawed. Making single-year attendance comparisons between the Twins and Nationals (or the White Sox, whose ballpark is 20 years older) without context is meaningless. If you’d mentioned that Washington drew 400K more fans in 2012 (when they won 98 games) than 2011 (when they won 80), that might have been meaningful. The example of the mid-90s Twins, brought up by another poster, is a good one. In 1995 when the Twins won 56 games they barely drew a million fans. In 2005 when they won 83 they drew over 2 million. Fans – both hardcore and casual – are more interested in the team when they’re winning, and that effect magnifies over extended winning/losing periods. That’s why a third straight 90-loss season would be dangerous, IMO.

I'm not sure how using attendance statistics from other markets is really relevant. Different contexts and situations. You're telling me that the Twins still would have had Target Field half-full frequently in August and September if they were in a race? You're telling me the same number of season tickets would have been dropped this year if the team hadn't lost 95 games?

I disagree with this. A competitive season in which the team misses the playoffs is not a failure. If the Twins are at least hanging around into September they keep the fans engaged, keep attendance up and give indication to prospective additions that they are on the right track and not far from contention. The notion that there's no meaningful difference between winning 70 and 85 games boggles my mind.

I'm pretty optimistic about the offense this year. I think Plouffe and Parmelee keep trending up, Morneau has a monster year and Hicks makes a legit impact. Would love to see Dozier take major strides but have a harder time seeing that.

What makes you say that? They made pretty much the smallest dent possible in the free agent market (short of not signing anybody). It's just not an impressive group of additions from any perspective really. If your assertion is that people are going to complain about anyone the Twins sign, you should probably go back and take a look at the responses to the Willingham and Doumit signings last year.

Reaching here a little bit, aren't we Smerf?

I didn't say he'd go down as the best CF in franchise history, just that he has a chance to be the best in their current succession (Hunter, Gomez, Span, Revere). Even that's admittedly pretty optimistic, but from my view Hicks has all the requisite skills. For those who doubt his power, I would say nearly doubling his previous career high for homers in his first year in a tough league for hitters is a good sign that he's still growing in that department.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1369-TD-Top-Prospects-3-Aaron-Hicks

Age: 23 (DOB: 10/2/89) 2012 Stats AA: .286/.384/.460, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 100 R, 32/43 SB ETA: 2013 [ATTACH=CONFIG]3251[/ATTACH] When it comes to physical tools, Aaron Hicks is tough to top. A muscular 6'2" outfielder with tremendous speed and an arm so strong that many teams considered drafting him as a pitcher, he's the type of player scouts salivate over. Will the production match the athleticism? That's a question that has followed him throughout his career as a pro, which hasn't been without its warts. After repeating a season at Low-A in 2010, the switch hitter fell off the elite prospect map by scuffling through his '11 campaign in Ft. Myers, batting just .242 with a .722 OPS and flailing from the left side of the plate. Last year he came roaring back, dominating the competition at Double-A with a performance so strong that he's back on the national prospect scene and suddenly in position to win a starting position on the major-league roster out of spring training. The Good During his professional debut in 2008, the 14th overall pick displayed an auspiciously advanced approach at the plate, drawing 28 walks against 32 strikeouts in 45 games in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League as an 18-year-old. As he's risen through the ranks, his bat has lagged at times but the uncommon adeptness for taking walks has always remained intact. In five minor-league seasons, Hicks has drawn free passes at a 15 percent overall rate. For comparison, the uber-patient Joe Mauer walked at an 11 percent rate in his brief minor-league career and has been at 12 percent in the majors. Check out Hicks' year-by-year league ranks in the BB% category: 2010: 17.0% (5th in Midwest League) 2011: 14.8% (5th in Florida State League) 2012: 13.9% (3rd in Eastern League) In the three seasons where he's had enough at-bats to qualify, Hicks has been among the five most patient hitters in his league, and in nearly all cases he's been younger than anyone surrounding him on the leaderboard. His ability to take pitches and coax walks is a vital skill that allows him to get on base even when his batting average slumps. His overall OBP in the minors is .379 and he's never posted a mark below .353. Hicks' bat has been somewhat slow to develop, as he batted just .266 with 25 home runs in his first four seasons as a pro, but year represented a major breakout. If the .286/.384/.460 line with 13 homers as a 22-year-old doesn't blow you away, consider that the average batter in the Eastern League was 24.5 years old and hit .260/.330/.392. Hicks ranked fourth in the EL in OPS and was younger than any other player in the top 18. He tied for the league lead in triples (11) and ranked third in stolen bases (32). It was a monster season. That's not even accounting for his defense, which was typically fantastic in center field. Hicks covers tons of ground with his high-end wheels and has a cannon arm that tops the scales for many scouts (no surprise, given that he pitched in the high 90s as a prep). He's a huge defensive asset, which substantially magnifies the value of everything he provides on offense. With his consistently strong on-base skills, his speed and his ability to hit from both sides, Hicks profiles as an ideal leadoff hitter – a big part of the reason he seems like an appealing option for this year's Twins team. If his increased power and his improved proficiency against right-handers last year both prove legitimate, he could easily develop into one of the most well rounded center fielders in the major leagues. The Bad The weaknesses in Hicks' offensive game have been distinct. No. 1 on that list is strikeouts. Although he's drawn walks at an outstanding clip throughout his career, Hicks has also whiffed quite a bit, with three straight 100-K seasons. Overall, he's struck out in 20 percent of his plate appearances as a pro and that has taken a toll on his batting average; he hasn't approached .300 since his debut in rookie ball. Hicks batted .251 in his first turn at Low-A in 2009 and .242 in his first turn at High-A in 2011. Last year's .286 mark was certainly an improvement, but was buoyed by a .346 BABIP. As long as he keeps piling up strikeouts, Hicks will have a tough time mustering strong batting averages in the majors, which would limit his offensive upside. There's also the matter of hitting from both sides of the plate. Up until last year, the outfielder really struggled from the left side, and that's an issue when the vast majority of pitchers will push him into that batter's box. A natural righty who took up switch-hitting as a sophomore in high school, Hicks himself admitted to Baseball America in 2011 that he doesn't generate the same pop swinging lefty, though he added that he "sees the ball better and gets better at-bats from the left side." His splits last year were much more balanced, and we can hope that's a sign of things to come, but I suspect that holding his own against right-handers will be one of Hicks' toughest hurdles as he adapts to the majors. The Bottom Line No. 3 is higher than you'll see Hicks on most lists, but personally, I'd make a case for ranking him even higher. His combination of skills is rare, and he delivered a major statement with his performance in the Eastern League last year. It wouldn't surprise me a bit of he were a Rookie of the Year contender with the Twins this season, nor if he ultimately goes down as the best in a long succession of quality Minnesota center fielders. [TD’s Top Ten Prospects: #10: Max Kepler] [TD’s Top Ten Prospects: #9: Trevor May] [TD's Top Ten Prospects: #8: J. O. Berrios] [TD's Top Ten Prospects: #7 Eddie Rosario] [TD's Top Ten Prospects: #6 Kyle Gibson] [TD's Top Ten Prospects: #5 Alex Meyer] [TD's Top Ten Prospects: #4 Oswaldo Arcia]

Hormel Row of Fame was the greatest.

Yep. I'd say Hendriks (who's the same age as Wimmers, BTW) has a much better chance of becoming a staple for this team. Surprised he's not even being mentioned here.

Spot on.