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Coming into spring training, I don't think that Ron Gardenhire and the Twins were planning on bringing Josmil Pinto north with the big-league club. The young backstop had been awfully impressive with the bat during a September audition in 2013, sure, but Twins officials commented repeatedly throughout the offseason that he was still somewhat raw and his defensive game needed work. That was a fair position to hold. Pinto was a bit of a slow developer in the minors, and had played only 19 games in Triple-A. As Chris Parmelee had demonstrated two years earlier, you can only put so much stock into a great September debut in the majors. As spring camp unfolded, Pinto hit, and -- for the most part -- no one else did. With the offense looking rather shabby, the Twins decided that they needed Pinto's bat, and that turned out to be very wise indeed as the catcher's stellar April helped fuel a surprisingly strong start for the lineup. Since the end of April, though, Pinto has quietly faded. Dating back to May 1st, he's hitting just .200/.227/.329, and after posting an even 17-to-17 K/BB ratio in the first month, his plate approach has deteriorated substantially, with 19 strikeouts against three walks in 75 plate appearances. Pinto's decline may be attributable, in part, to his sporadic playing time -- he has started only 18 of the team's 39 games since the start of May -- but some holes in his swing have also become evident, and it's clear that his defense needs work. He'll require regular reps in order to improve these areas, and he was having a tough enough time finding those with the Twins before Kendrys Morales came aboard. Since the Twins are paying him a lot of money, you can bet that Morales is going to get the vast majority of starts at DH, and Kurt Suzuki has earned the opportunity to start most of the time at catcher -- he's simply been a much better player than Pinto, all-around. So the writing is on the wall. Pinto is going to head back to Triple-A, and he'll be replaced by a player like Eric Fryer who can more justifiably spend most of his time on the bench. The only question at this point is this: What are the Twins waiting for? Pinto is a very important long-term piece for this club, and letting him languish on the bench as he has for much of the past several weeks isn't going to aid his development. I suspect that the Twins are simply waiting to make sure that Morales is up to speed after his long layoff before taking away the best alternative option at DH. A few good games from the newly acquired slugger should be all they need to make that determination. What do you think? Are you OK with Pinto heading back to Triple-A to play regularly, or do you believe the Twins should keep him around and find ways to get him into their lineup?
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Morales Signing Signals Shift in Twins' Mindset
Nick Nelson posted a blog entry in Nick's Twins Blog
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The last time I can remember the Twins making a "win now" move was prior to the 2011 season, when they re-signed Carl Pavano and Jim Thome in an effort to recapture the magic that led to 94 wins and a playoff berth in the first season at Target Field. You can argue that these weren't especially wise moves, but they were clearly aimed at a goal of short-term winning. Pavano, 35, was signed for two years and cost the Twins a potential draft pick. Thome, 40, was signed for one year. Things obviously fell apart during that season, and in the years since, while the Twins have made a lot of moves -- some of them very good moves -- I don't think any could be described as aggressive "win-now" maneuvers. Not until now. Over the weekend, the Twins announced that they have signed Kendrys Morales for the remainder of the 2014 campaign, at a hefty prorated $12 million salary. That's a significant spend for a player whose sole purpose is to make this team better right now. What prompted this uncharacteristic shift in approach? In part, it might be frustration. The Twins have been waiting, and waiting, and waiting for their top prospects to progress through the minors and help propel the big-league club forward, only to be met with a seemingly endless string of setbacks. Miguel Sano's elbow, Byron Buxton's wrist, Eddie Rosario's suspension… they have all pushed the arrivals of potential difference-makers backward, leaving the team in perpetual limbo. And then there are the outside factors in play. You've got a manager and GM who are -- at least to some extent -- on the hot seat after three straight 90-loss seasons. You've got a ballpark with dwindling attendance numbers. And you've got a club with tons of extra money on hand after falling well short of its spending limit during the offseason. On top of all that, the Twins are in last place but only five games out of first, and closer than that to wild-card position. So as Terry Ryan aptly put it when discussing the Morales signing, "Why not us?" To be clear, Morales is not a slam-dunk signing nor a perfect fit. He hasn't played since September of 2013, and in the two seasons since his devastating leg injury with the Angels he has been a good but not spectacular hitter. He also has limited defensive versatility, so working him into the lineup around young guys who need to be playing, like Josmil Pinto and Oswaldo Arcia, will be a challenge. But the bottom line is that Morales is a massive upgrade over the guy he's replacing on the roster (Jason Kubel), and he's a bat that you can immediately slot into the middle of the lineup. This isn't a move that suddenly turns the Twins into a World Series contender, but it does significantly boost their chances of hanging around .500 and remaining relevant late into the season. Even more importantly, though, it indicates that the Twins are finally back in a mindset where they're focused on winning baseball games now, not next year or the year after. For fans who have endured some brutal results in recent years, that is a tremendously encouraging development.
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Sponsored by Ticket King After splitting a brief two-game set at Miller Park, the Twins now return to Target Field for the second half of a home-and-home series this week against the Brewers. The interstate rivalry annually produces a great deal of interest, with numerous Milwaukeeans trekking into town, so the ballpark figures to be a bustling place.The weather forecast is looking beautiful (75 and sunny) for both Wednesday and Thursday, and Ticket King has some great seats available for both games, but if you have to pick one, which is the best option? We'll dig into the specific match-ups shortly. But first, let's size up the opponent. Strong Brew Last year, the Brewers went 74-88, finishing fourth in the NL Central. This year, they're off to a much better start, with a comfortable early lead in one of baseball's toughest divisions. Milwaukee has jumped out to an impressive 35-24 record thanks, in part, to contributions from some familiar faces. Carlos Gomez blossomed last year as an MVP-caliber player in center field, and he has only continued to grow this season. Through 53 games, Gomez is batting .310/.384/.562 with 11 homers, 11 steals and elite defense at a key position. According to FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement, Gomez has been the fourth-most valuable player in the NL, trailing only Troy Tulowitzki, Giancarlo Stanton and Yasiel Puig. The guy is an absolute stud, and also damn fun to watch. In addition to center field, the Brewers have a couple former Twins anchoring their rotation. Kyle Lohse was a late free agent signing last year, and he has turned into the team's ace, with a 7-1 record and 2.60 ERA through 12 starts. Matt Garza was this year's marquee free agent splash, and although he hasn't had the same success as Lohse (Garza's 4.42 ERA is actually the highest among starters) he remains a quality pitcher with the ability to shut down opposing lineups, as he showed in Milwaukee on Monday. The Twins won't face Lohse or Garza at Target Field, but they will have to deal with two formidable arms. The Match-Ups Wednesday: Marco Estrada vs. Ricky Nolasco @ 7:10 PM Estrada might be one of the more underrated starters in the National League, and he's enjoying another strong season with a 5-2 record, 4.03 ERA and 62-to-20 K/BB ratio through 11 starts. The right-hander's biggest weakness is that he has always been somewhat homer-prone, and that has been magnified this year as he's already coughed up a league-leading 17 bombs. The Twins have seen a few of their power bats start to heat up lately (most notably Josh Willingham), so if you're looking to see some balls fly out of the park, or if you're just generally looking for a decent chance at a win, this game is for you. Thursday: Wily Peralta vs. Kevin Correia @ 7:10 PM In a rare Thursday evening game, the Twins are staring at a lopsided pitching tilt. Correia has struggled mightily at home, where he's 1-4 with an unsightly 7.09 ERA. Meanwhile, the hard-throwing right-hander Peralta has been exquisite on the road, with a 1.88 ERA in four turns. This will be a very tough one to win. But oftentimes, those are the most rewarding. If you want to see the Twins try and add to Estrada's homer total, there are Wednesday night tickets available for under $25. Or, if you want to get the weekend started early, you could snag some tickets for Thursday's night game. All are an even better deal if you use the promo code DAILYDOUBLE, which will get you 10% off and supports Twins Daily. Whatever your needs, your local ticket supplier, Ticket King, can help.
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So, as you might have heard, Twins pitching prospect Trevor May has been on a heck of a run in Triple-A. The 25-year-old right-hander was named International League Pitcher of the Week on Monday and hasn't allowed an earned run in his last four starts. Overall, May is sitting with a 2.62 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 10 starts this year, while averaging about a strikeout per inning and holding opponents to a .196 batting average. That sounds like a guy who should be up on the big-league staff. The only problem -- and this ain't exactly a bad problem -- is that right now there's no obvious spot for May to fill. That's a bit of an odd conundrum considering that the Twins have the worst starting pitching ERA in the American League at 4.86. But when you look at the five starters currently comprising the rotation, you can't really argue that any are deserving of a demotion. In part, that is because Minnesota's starters have been shockingly healthy. Outside of the ailing Mike Pelfrey, nobody has missed a start in the first two months, which is sort of amazing after the last couple years. In terms of performance, there are some ugly overall numbers in the mix, but everyone has been holding their own recently, helping to explain the club's decent 13-16 record in a month of May where the offense averaged only 3.2 runs per game. It goes without saying that Phil Hughes is locked in. He's been one of the best starters in the league. Ricky Nolasco also isn't going anywhere, since he's in Year 1 of a four-year deal (he has also allowed three or fewer runs in five of his last six turns). Samuel Deduno hasn't been spectacular since taking over for Pelfrey in early May, but certainly hasn't done anything to put his job in danger. Kyle Gibson's performances have been uneven, and his ugly 29-to-20 K/BB ratio in 56 innings is a bit worrisome, but this is sink-or-swim time for the 26-year-old right-hander and the Twins have little to gain by sending him back to Triple-A. The most obvious slot for May to take over is, and has been, that of Kevin Correia. The veteran is in the final year of his deal with the Twins, and has had an ERA north of 6 for much of the campaign. But even as someone who is clearly not the biggest Correia fan in the world, I can't really advocate for his removal from the rotation at this point. Correia simply hasn't pitched as poorly as his bloated 5.87 ERA suggests. His 5.0 K/9 rate -- while far from good -- is better than any mark he's posted in the last three years, and he has the best walk rate among Twins starters outside of Hughes. Correia has also allowed only six homers in 61 innings. The biggest issues for Correia have been a .338 batting average on balls in play and a league-worst 59.6 percent strand rate. Both categories are considered to be -- at least to some extent -- luck-based, and by that convention Correia has been among the most unlucky starting pitchers in the majors. You can't really punish a guy for being unlucky. Correia is doing what he needs to do. So here's the situation: Barring monumental struggles, contractual and developmental considerations mean that Hughes, Nolasco and Gibson are staying put all year. Deduno and Correia aren't pitching their way out of jobs. This means that in order to get his chance, May is going to need to wait until one of the latter two starters falls into a legitimate slump, or someone gets hurt. It also means that if and when Pelfrey finally gets healthy, he's going to have a very tough time breaking back into the rotation. Like I said, not a bad problem to have, but certainly a peculiar one for a starting staff that statistically ranks as the second-worst in baseball. Since the Twins rallied and took down the Yankees on Sunday to complete a rare series victory in New York, you can get half off your online order at PapaJohns.com on Monday with the promo code 'TWINSWIN'.
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In each of the past two seasons, Twins pitchers have ranked dead last in the majors in strikeouts. They're on track to do so again this year. It's no coincidence that they've been extremely bad at preventing runs during that time. In today's MLB environment, where strikeouts are rapidly climbing league-wide, a "pitch-to-contact" staff profile doesn't fly. To their credit, the Twins seem to recognize this, and have recently made concerted efforts to add more power arms to the organization. In next Thursday's draft, they might have a chance to bring in the best high school power arm... ever? Who is this guy? Earlier this month, Baseball America's John Manuel put Tyler Kolek's triple-digit fastball in perspective: "According to scouts we talked to, he is the hardest-throwing high schooler of the draft era." The right-hander generally works in the upper-90s with a heavy heater that touches 100 MPH "with regularity" and has been clocked as high as 102. That's pretty much unheard of for an 18-year-old kid, but Kolek hardly looks his age. At 6'5" and 250 pounds, he is absolutely massive and is often described as country strong, owing to the fact that he grew up working on his family's cattle ranch. The numbers that Kolek put up against prep competition as a senior this year at Shepherd High School in Texas are downright silly. In 60 1/3 innings across 10 starts, the fireballer yielded three earned runs (0.35 ERA). He faced a total of 219 batters, allowing only 23 hits and eight walks while striking out 126. Kolek figures to become the second high school hurler from Texas to be drafted among the top five in as many years, joining Kohl Stewart who of course went to the Twins at No. 4 in 2013. Why the Twins will pick him As mentioned before, the Twins have developed a clear focus on adding power arms to the system and you could hardly ask for a more powerful arm than this one. Kolek is considered by many scouts to be a better prospect than Stewart was a year ago, so if he falls to No. 5, the Twins are going to need to look very hard at him. Several teams reportedly have Kolek pegged as the best pitcher in this draft, and he's in the discussion to go first overall. It's awfully tough to pass on the upside of a potential ace who is already throwing this hard as a teenager. In addition to buzzing in at an insane speed, his fastball has pretty good sink so there's a belief that he should be able to pile up ground balls along with strikeouts in the pros. If he can stay in the zone, that would basically make him the ideal starter, and his big frame will hopefully equate to greater durability since he needn't rely as much on his arm to generate velocity. Why the Twins will not pick him Kolek's upside is as immense as his build, but there are plenty of concerns. First of all, the fact that he's throwing 100 MPH at this age raises questions about his long-term outlook. Generally speaking, pitchers have a limited velocity peak, and very few are able to maintain a high-90s heater over a period of 10 years or more, especially as a starter. If Kolek is using up all the gas in his arm at such a young age, it's possible his velocity could already start declining by the time he's ready for the majors in (hopefully) three or four years. That would be a bummer. It'd be easier to stomach if the righty had stand-out secondary pitches to fall back on, but those are all considered works in progress. His curveball and slider have been inconsistent and he has basically never needed to throw a changeup while blowing away high school hitters. An unpolished arsenal is hardly rare for a prep pitcher, but it leads to more uncertainty, and the Twins already took on their fair share of that last year when they selected Stewart. This time around, they might be more apt to go in on a college pitcher like Aaron Nola, who would be slated for a much quicker rise to the majors. Speaking of college, Kolek has a commitment to Texas Christian University. He likely expects to go in the Top 3, so if he drops to No. 5, the Twins might have a tough time enticing him to sign. There's no way they're using this pick on him unless they're absolutely certain they can bring him aboard. At the end of the day, Kolek's huge potential and historical rarity may overcome any such cautionary signs should he drop all the way to five. However, that scenario seems unlikely anyway, as all four teams in front of Minnesota have shown interest.
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On Tuesday night, the Twins stole another one away. You'd have a hard time arguing they outplayed the Rangers, who outhit them 9-6 and had a one-run lead entering the ninth before Joakim Soria uncharacteristically blew a save (his first of the year, in fact) and took the loss when he misplayed a nubber back to the mound with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth. Hey, a win's a win. That's been a good mantra for the Twins, who find themselves within a game of .500 as the end of May approaches, despite the fact that they haven't really played all that well. Offensively, they rank ninth out of 15 American Leagues teams in runs per game, and 11th in OPS. Their team ERA is the worst in baseball. Despite all that, this team is keeping it interesting. After Tuesday's thriller, they are now 6-2 in one-run games in the month of May. They have heftily outplayed their Pythagorean W/L, which registers at 21-28. Not exactly a sustainable recipe for success, but it doesn't need to be. The Twins have been succeeding in spite of a lot of correctable problems, so there's plenty of reason to expect improvement over the next four months. Let's flesh out a few of those reasons: 1) Jason Kubel will be replaced. Harsh, I know. But are you aware just how bad Kubel has been since the first two weeks of the season? Since April 13, when his red-hot start basically came to an end, the veteran's slash line is .187/.293/.206. Yes that's a .206 slugging percentage over a period of seven weeks from a player who was brought in almost solely for his ability to hit. The Twins seem to have a blind spot for Kubel, as they've evidently never doubted his enduring offensive aptitude despite the poor numbers in 2013, but even they can't run away from these blatant struggles. He's been given 163 plate appearances up to this point but has sat out two of the last three games and is amidst an 0-for-14 slump. It would have been great to see this one work out, but the Twins are going to cut bait on Kubel. Maybe as soon as Wednesday, when he is due a 60-day roster bonus of $150,000. He'll be replaced on the roster by a more capable bat (maybe Triple-A performer Deibinson Romero) while his at-bats will go toward guys like Oswaldo Arcia, who appears to be back on track after last night. Photo by Jesse Johnson, USA TODAY Sports 2) Center field also has to get better. Now that he's given up switch-hitting, Aaron Hicks is either going to improve substantially or get replaced. The Twins are pretty clearly running out of patience with him and it's not hard to see why; Hicks' .585 OPS is worse than all but nine qualified big-leaguers, and is almost identical to last year's paltry mark. The Twins have gotten worse production in center than any MLB team outside of Boston. They lack viable replacements for Hicks, which is part of the problem, but eventually they're bound to find an upgrade somewhere if he can't get it going. That said, I'm hopeful the big change leads to a resurgence. Hicks is not this bad. 3) Pitching help is on the way. As mentioned above, Minnesota's pitching staff has the highest ERA in the majors, in large part because as a team they are averaging only 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings. That's the lowest rate in baseball, and if it holds this will be the fourth straight year of the Twins being the most contact-heavy staff in the game. But maybe it won't hold. Down in Triple-A, both Alex Meyer and Trevor May are turning heads with their bat-missing stuff. The Rochester teammates rank first and fifth in the International League in K/9 rate, respectively. Swapping one of those guys in at some point for, say, Kevin Correia -- whose ERA hasn't been below 6 since mid-April -- could change the look of this rotation considerably. 4) Joe Mauer, guys. This has been a frustrating year for Mauer. He's trying to learn a new position, he's been getting squeezed by umpires like never before, and now he's battling a back issue that is apparently more serious than we were led to believe. But at the end of the day, this guy is still one of the best hitters in the sport, and if he can get healthy he's going to find a way to be a positive offensive contributor. He has done that this year to some extent -- a .364 OBP isn't exactly a liability in the two-hole -- but we can't pretend that his power output has been acceptable for a first baseman. Mauer's OPS is currently lower than any mark he's finished with in his entire career, even in that miserable 2011 campaign. Maybe something's really wrong with him, but I'd rather presume that it's just a slow start and he'll make up for it with the big second half we know he's capable of. Tuesday night's walk-off victory means that you can get half off your online order from PapaJohns.com on Wednesday. Just use the promo code 'TWINSWIN'!
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The first two years of Aaron Hicks' major-league career have been humbling to say the least. He's gone from first-round prep superstar and top prospect to apparent bust; from appointed center fielder and leadoff man to "unprepared" problem child. The skills that have carried Hicks to this point aren't keeping him afloat. But to his credit, the 24-year-old has proven willing to look inward, and is now implementing a drastic change. Hicks announced on Monday that he is giving up switch-hitting, and will bat exclusively from the right side going forward. Whether going by the eye test or the numbers, it has been obvious for some time that the switch-hitting approach just wasn't working out for Hicks. Ostensibly hitting from both sides is intended to produce a double platoon advantage for a hitter, but Hicks performed worse from the left side than you'd expect from any lefty-against-lefty, or righty-against-righty, or major-leaguer-against-anyone. In 331 plate appearances as a left-handed hitter, Hicks batted .179/.261/.285. In light of those numbers, it's no surprise that the center fielder told his manager he has "no confidence" in the lefty swing that he adopted at a young age. Will this help? It can't hurt. Hicks' problems run deeper than switch-hitting -- his numbers against lefties as a righty aren't that great either -- but he'll now be taking 100 percent of his swings from his natural side. He'll need to adapt to a different look in the majority of his at-bats, and even Ron Gardenhire admitted that this process would ideally play out in the minors, but at least when Hicks makes contact he'll have a better chance of doing something with it. This is a rare step for a major-league player to take. Shane Victorino gave up switch-hitting at age 32 last year, initially because of an injury, but outside of that the list of examples of players implementing such a change has been exceedingly short. A study on the subject conducted by James Gentile of Beyond the Boxscore in 2012 reached the following conclusion: Well, that sounds extremely discouraging, particularly when you consider that Hicks is only 24 years old and in his second big-league season. But the numbers have been bad enough -- and disparate enough from what you'd expect out of his talent -- that desperation is warranted. Hicks needs to be a more confident player. Taking his admittedly inferior swing into 75 percent of his at-bats is not a disadvantage he needed added to his plate. What do you think? Can eliminating the left-handed swing help Hicks straighten out his offensive game? And should the Twins allow him to reinvent himself in the majors or search elsewhere for an interim replacement?
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A top five pick in the MLB draft is a blessing and a burden. Getting it right can mean the addition of a franchise-altering talent. Getting it wrong can be very, very costly. Will the Twins stake their future on a pitcher as erratic yet electric as Tyler Beede? Who is this guy? Beede has been one of the elite young arms in the nation for some time now. In 2011, he was drafted 21st overall by the Blue Jays, who went far over slot and offered $2.5 million to the 18-year-old righty from Massachusetts but were still spurned, as Beede would not budge from a colossal $3.5 million asking price. He was the only first-round pick not to sign that year. While this might seem like greed to some, I think the more accurate depiction is of a talented young man with a full ride to Vanderbilt, who would only let a completely outrageous offer woo him away from such an opportunity. After a rocky freshman year, Beede settled in as Vanderbilt's ace as a sophomore, going 14-1 with a 2.32 ERA while averaging more than a strikeout per inning. Though his W/L and ERA regressed this year as a junior, he improved his walk rate and continued to miss plenty of bats. ESPN.com's prospect guru Keith Law came away extremely impressed after watching Beede pitch against Stanford in March, concluding that "it's hard for me to imagine that he's not a top-five pick." Why the Twins will pick him It's not hard to see the allure. Beede has a prototypical pitcher build at 6'4" and 215. He lives on a powerful fastball that clocks in the mid-90s, and he complements it with a strong changeup and a sharp curve that he has sometimes struggled to harness. You can never have enough quality arms, and Beede would fit nicely into the organization's timeline, joining Kohl Stewart and J.O. Berrios as premium young pitchers who will be scheduled to arrive in two or three years. Why the Twins won't pick him A consensus mock draft list compiled this week on SB Nation averaged out the results of six different expert mocks and had Beede going to the Rays with the 20th overall pick. Even Law, who was clearly quite high on Beede earlier in the spring, has said more recently that he expects the righty to go in the second half of the first round, citing shaky command in the latter part of the college season. While he's got ample ability, the inconsistency in Beede's track record makes it difficult to justify him as a top five pick. His stuff is plenty good but he has too often been unable to control it, and although the Twins have a good record of helping pitchers iron out control issues, that's probably more risk than they're willing to take on when picking this high.
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The top end of the Minnesota Twins Top 10 Prospects list has unfortunately been marred by misfortune this year. No. 2 prospect Miguel Sano's season was over before it began, as he went under the knife for Tommy John surgery in March. The top guy, Byron Buxton, still hasn't been able to shake a nagging wrist injury that figures to cost him the first half of his season at least. Meanwhile, No. 5 prospect Eddie Rosario is finally set to return from a 50-game suspension next week. Glancing further down the list, we find some real positive stories that should help offset some of the disappointment surrounding the club's best hitting prospects. Today I'll take a look at the three prospects among our preseason Top 10 that have remained healthy and have improved their stock markedly over these first couple months: Trevor May (Preseason Rank: 10) 2014 Stats (AAA): 8 GS, 43 IP, 3.35 ERA, 47/17 K/BB, 1.09 WHIP May appears on this list rather than Alex Meyer not because he's the better prospect, or even because he's having a substantially better season. May is here because his performance has been most encouraging relative to what we've seen in the past. The big right-hander barely slipped into the back of our list this spring. He didn't show the kind of progress last year that we wanted to see in his second turn against Eastern League hitters. Although May slightly improved in most key categories, he didn't dominate the way you'd hope a 23-year-old with his stuff would while repeating Double-A. His ERA (4.51), WHIP (1.42) and BB/9 rate (4.0) were all simply too high. So we all wondered how he'd fare as he moved up a level to take on Triple-A for the first time. And through eight starts, May has been fantastic across the board. He's averaging more than a strikeout per inning. His walk rate is down to 3.6 BB/9, continuing a three-year trend of improvement. He has allowed only two home runs in 43 innings. And he's holding opposing hitters to a .196 batting average. May has completed six or more innings in four of his last six starts, including eight shutout frames in his last turn. He's already on the 40-man roster, so we could be seeing him in Minnesota sooner rather than later. Jorge Polanco (Preseason Rank: 8) 2014 Stats (A+): .319/.400/.425, 2 HR, 22 RBI, 31 R, 5/10 SB Last year, Polanco was the youngest qualifying second baseman in the Midwest League but still managed to dominate offensively, posting an .813 OPS while controlling the strike zone and playing strong defense. This year, he has taken the step up to the Florida State League, a notoriously pitcher-friendly environment, and hasn't missed a beat despite once again ranking as one of the youngest players. Polanco ended a 20-game hitting streak with Ft. Myers on Tuesday night. He has shown tremendous plate discipline, with 22 walks and only 18 strikeouts in 185 plate appearances. Here's another big development: After spending most of his time at second base last year in Cedar Rapids, Polanco has played shortstop exclusively with the Miracle. I remain somewhat skeptical that he'll stick at short long-term, but this suggests that the Twins still have belief in his ability at the position. Obviously, if he turns out to be an adequate defensive shortstop it raises his value considerably, particularly in this organization. J.O. Berrios (Preseason Rank: 6) 2014 Stats (A+): 8 GS, 43.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 45/16 K/BB, 1.31 WHIP Berrios has a lot of things working against him in his quest to become a standout major-league starting pitcher. He's undersized at 6'0" and 185 lbs. He has not, historically, been able to induce a lot of ground balls. And he doesn't have the big assortment of plus secondary pitches that are often requisite for a starter. But this kid just continues to get results against hitters who are older and more experienced. He has managed to post the above numbers for Ft. Myers despite the fact that he doesn't turn 20 until next week. No pitcher who has thrown in the FSL this year is younger than Berrios. And right now, the teen hurler is gaining steam. Coming off two straight shutout performances, Berrios had perhaps the best game of his career in his most recent start, fanning a career-high 10 hitters over seven innings of two-run ball. In the past, I've held reservations about the righty's true upside, but he's pitching as well as he ever has at this point and it really looks like the sky is the limit. Along with May and Polanco (not to mention Meyer and Kohl Stewart, who have been expectedly strong), Berrios is a reason to feel good about the farm system, despite some unsettling developments with the top names. The Twins beat the Padres last night so on Wednesday you can get a half price large or extra-large pizza from PapaJohns.com with the promo code TWINSWIN.
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Sponsored by Switch My Trip In his entire minor-league career -- which spanned 365 games over four seasons -- Brian Dozier hit a total of 16 home runs.I keep coming back to that astonishing number as the second baseman launches bomb after bomb after bomb for the Twins. After going deep twice at Target Field over the weekend, Dozier now has 11 homers this season, tying him for fourth in the American League. According to the Star Tribune's Phil Miller, Dozier "laughed at the notion that he's now a power hitter" after hitting his 10th jack on Friday night. Then, perhaps while still chuckling, he went out on Saturday and delivered a three-run homer that lifted the Twins to a 4-3 victory. The Twins are looking to switch things around this year. Every week, Metro Transit recognizes a Twins player who successfully switched the outcome of a game for the better. It's not surprising that Dozier doesn't want to be pigeon-holed as a power hitter. After all, he's been arguably the most effective leadoff hitter in baseball. His on-base percentage is up to .374, he's 12-for-15 on stolen base attempts and he leads the league with 40 runs scored. Those are the types of things we might have expected based on his track record in the minors, where Dozier was a speedy on-base machine with a disciplined approach and a good glove. But his power was very slow to develop. He didn't hit his first home run as a pro until his 126th game, and up until last year he had never reached double-digits in homers for a season. Then, the switch flipped. Since the start of the 2013 campaign, Dozier has piled up 29 home runs in 189 games. That might not sound like elite pop, but when you account for his position, it is. No second baseman has put more balls in the bleachers over the last two seasons. Photo by Jesse Johnson, USA TODAY Sports So while he might be many other things as well, there's no doubt that he is a power hitter. And that transformation probably has the Twins thinking about making a switch of their own. Although Dozier has been spectacular as a leadoff man, the impact of his frequent long balls hasn't been maximized. All but two of his 11 homers have come with the bases empty, and despite being one of the most prolific power hitters in the league Dozier ranks fourth on his own team in RBI. Trevor Plouffe, who has been regularly occupying the third spot in the lineup, has gone cold after a hot start. A rough month has dropped his hitting line to .245/.330/.399 and his penchant for knocking in runs has all but disappeared, Sunday's 2-RBI effort notwithstanding. The lack of a suitable replacement at the top of the lineup might be the only thing holding Ron Gardenhire back from sliding Dozier down to a spot where he'd have more opportunities to drive men (and specifically Joe Mauer) home. Speaking of driving home, why drive yourself home after a Twins game when it means fighting traffic and paying for parking? Say 'Switch My Trip' for the next Twins game. Metro Transit can provide you and your whole family a train ride to the game. Planning your trip is as easy as clicking on this link.
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It appears that the Twins are running out of patience with Aaron Hicks. Last year, through 29 games, the outfielder was batting .133/.239/.214. This year, at the same point, his line is .170/.315/.239. While Hicks has shown an improved approach at the plate, he simply is not hitting the ball. The Twins took the 24-year-old to task publicly this week, with Ron Gardenhire and Rob Antony both bemoaning his lack of preparation, and it's not the first time they've tried to light a fire under Hicks via media quotes (Antony also called out Hicks during spring training for failing to step up and take hold of the center field job). On multiple occasions, Twins officials have hinted that they don't believe Hicks' mental commitment to the game lines up with his considerable talent. But as the athletic specimen continues to flail away from the left side of the plate, I can't help but wonder if his primary issue is simpler than that. Batting from the right side against lefties last season, Hicks hit .203/.273/.441 for a .713 OPS that -- while not good -- was respectable enough for a rookie. His overall numbers were dragged down by a horrendous .189/.255/.311 hitting line from the left side. After going 0-for-2 against right-handed starter Clay Buchholz on Thursday, Hicks is batting .113 while swinging left-handed this year, with one extra-base hit in 65 plate appearances. He ended up delivering the game-winning hit in the 10th inning Thursday, and sure enough he did it while batting righty against southpaw Andrew Miller. Hicks had entered the game hitting .242/.390/.333 against left-handers. On his blog this week, La Velle E. Neal III wrote about the club's frustrations with Hicks, stating that the outfielder is on the "hot seat." If the Twins want Hicks to change his ways, maybe altering his pre-game routine is not the answer. It isn't like he's going up to the plate and completely getting blown away; his 30-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio is actually quite solid. He just isn't doing enough when he puts the ball in play, and that's mostly because he isn't making solid contact on right-handed pitchers, against whom he has a miserable .143 BABIP despite his high-end speed. Photo by Jesse Johnson, USA TODAY Sports Hicks is a natural right-handed swinger who took up switch-hitting in high school. His numbers from the left were almost always worse in the minors, so the idea of moving him strictly to the right side has been brought up before, but it only seems to make more and more sense as he continues to look drastically worse against righties, who comprise the majority of all pitchers. It's a big change. It would probably require heading to the minors and essentially rebuilding his approach. That might take some time, as Hicks hasn't regularly seen right-handed pitching from the right side in probably close to a decade. But if the Twins are truly reaching the end of their rope with Hicks, it's worth a shot, right? For what it's worth, Hicks strangely told Parker during spring training that if he were ever to give up switch-hitting, he'd probably want to swing from the left side exclusively, adding that he feels more comfortable there at this point. "I tend to have more of a plan because I’ve had so much more at bats from the left side, where as right-handed I get 100 at bats a year so I kind of just come out ready to swing," Hicks said. Of course, this quote serves as a reminder that perception doesn't always line up with reality. It also seems rather ironic in light of this week's comments from the manager and assistant GM. "I don’t think he always has a plan--how that guy is going to pitch him, how he’s going to be prepared for it" said Antony. Nowhere has Hicks appeared to have less of a plan -- or at least, been less able to execute a plan -- than from the left side. Because the Twins won yesterday, you can get a half price large or extra-large pizza today (Friday) fromPapaJohns.com when you use the promo code TWINSWIN.
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Three-Bagger: Wristy Business, Jason K & Mauer Being Mauer
Nick Nelson posted a blog entry in Nick's Twins Blog
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* Florida's Jose Fernandez is the latest young star pitcher to be tabbed for Tommy John surgery, so elbow injuries have been the talk of baseball this week. Minnesota has plenty of experience in that department, most recently with first-round picks Kyle Gibson and Alex Wimmers. But currently, it's the wrist that has emerged as a major pain for young talents in the Twins organization. Oswaldo Arcia was bothered by a wrist injury last summer, and it has come back to hamper him again this year. After playing just four games for the Twins in April, he went on the disabled list. He rested for a bit, made it through an eight-game rehab stint, and then -- just when he was seemingly on the verge of returning to the big-league club -- it was revealed that the wrist is still bothering him. He has returned to playing in Rochester after a couple days off, but the fact that he's still feeling soreness in an area that has affected him dating back to last year is not good. Even more concerning is the situation that has arisen with Byron Buxton. The top prospect in baseball missed the first month of the season after hurting his wrist on a dive in the outfield during spring training, and then, after five rehab games in Ft. Myers, he aggravated the injury on a slide. He's now slated for an MRI and his prognosis going forward is unclear at best. Wrist injuries are a bummer for two reasons. For one thing, as Arcia and Josh Willingham have shown, they can be very slow to heal, and can linger for months. Secondly, they can take a real toll on a hitter's performance at the plate, even after he returns. (J.J. Hardy's 2010 season is a good example.) If either of those scenarios play out for Buxton or Arcia, it's going to be a tough pill to swallow, especially after the turmoil that we've seen with Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario. This club just cannot catch a break with its young players. * Back before the start of spring training, I wrote about the trouble with counting on Jason Kubel, pointing out that his growing inability to make contact at the plate signaled ominous things for his 2014 season. Those concerns were muted in early April when the 32-year-old came out of spring training with a red-hot bat, but he's cooled off considerably in recent weeks and his strikeout issues have risen to the forefront. The veteran is now whiffing at an absolutely outrageous rate. Since April 20, Kubel has tallied multiple strikeouts in 12 of his 17 games. During that span, he has fanned in 32 of his 71 trips to the plate -- almost 50 percent. That's beyond bad. Overall, his 34 percent K-rate leads all major-leaguers and continues an upward trend we've seen over the past several seasons. I'd like to believe that there's some injury or correctable mechanical problem at play here, but when you look at the big picture it sure appears as though Kubel has declined to the point where he can't keep up with MLB pitching anymore. * On the flip side, Joe Mauer's alarming early-season strikeout surge seems to have subsided. The notorious contact hitter caused a lot of puzzlement while ranking among the most K-prone hitters in the league for much of April, but over the last few weeks he has looked more like himself. Over his past 12 games, Mauer has struck out only five times in 52 plate appearances. During that span, he is hitting .386 with a .462 on-base percentage. Tough to complain about that. Since the Twins beat the Red Sox on Tuesday night thanks to a walk-off homer from Chris Parmelee, you can get 50% off your online order at PapaJohns.com on Wednesday.
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Sponsored by Ticket King After wrapping up a road trip within the division, the Twins are back at Target Field this week, opening their homestand with a midweek three-game set against the defending World Series champs. One of the most storied franchises in baseball, Boston is always a hot ticket, and should provide a good test for a Twins team that is trying to fend off regression after an impressive start. Early on, the Sox haven't looked quite as good as they did last year, when they led the American League with 97 wins on their way to a championship, but they're just a couple games behind first-place Baltimore and have plenty of good things going on. Some of those things will seem familiar. Old Friends The Boston lineup features two former Twins who continue to defy age as they make key contributions. One is David Ortiz. We all know the story: As soon as Big Papi left Minnesota he blossomed into one of the best designated hitters in MLB history. He's still getting it done at age 38, batting .267/.370/.481 with seven homers and 19 RBI in 35 games. He has really been heating up in the month of May, with a .308 average and .977 OPS, so Twins pitchers will need to be very careful. Of course, Ortiz anchoring the Boston lineup is nothing new. He's been crushing baseballs at Fenway for more than a decade. We're less accustomed to seeing A.J. Piezynski behind the plate. The veteran backstop chose the Sox over the Twins as a free agent and has started 25 of the club's first 37 games at catcher. Pierzynski's production has been fairly modest -- .277/.318/.396 with three homers and 18 RBI -- but the fact that he continues to catch regularly while holding his own at the plate is impressive. This is a 37-year-old who entered the season with nearly 1,600 career starts at catcher. Boo him all you want; Pieryznski is the model of durability at a position where staying healthy can be tough. What's the Best Ticket? The weather forecast currently looks the same for all three games this week: cloudy and cool, but dry. We're looking at highs in the upper-50s with only a small chance of rain each day. After some of the early-season weather we've seen, I'll take that. Since weather probably won't be guiding your decisions, let's preview the pitching match-ups to figure out which is the best ticket at Target Field against the Red Sox. Tuesday's game will have Ricky Nolasco facing off against Felix Doubront. This is a reasonably favorable match-up for Twins, so if you want to take in a win, it's not a bad bet. Nolasco had a forgettable first month with the new cap but has excelled since the calendar flipped to May, with two quality starts and a 15-to-2 K/BB ratio in 17 innings. Doubront has been rocky overall, with a 5.09 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Wednesday's game will be tough. The Twins will send Kevin Correia, who has been brutal. Opposing him will be Jake Peavy, who has been quite effective for the Red Sox despite some control problems. This is a big game for Correia, who's got to be on thin ice. I think my favorite pick for this series is Thursday's tilt. It's a day game, so it will likely be the warmest of the three, and you'll get the chance to see Minnesota's best (and hottest) starter on the mound. Phil Hughes has been outstanding over his last four starts, in which he's 4-0 with a 2.05 ERA. Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz has been off-and-on this year, but usually more off than on as illustrated by a bloated 6.44 ERA. Boston's a strong team, no doubt. But their only visit to Target Field this year comes with good timing. In this series, the Twins will miss arguably their two best starters (Jon Lester and John Lackey). With their rich tradition and star power, the Red Sox are always a team that baseball fans go out of their way to see when in town. Through Ticket King, you can find some great values for this series. I'm seeing tickets as low as $4 for Tuesday night's contest. There are some lower-deck seats in the $20-30 range for Wednesday night. And there are tons of tickets under $10 for Thursday's game if you can skip out of work early. All are an even better deal if you use the promo code DAILYDOUBLE, which will get you 10% off and supports Twins Daily. Whatever your needs, your local ticket supplier, Ticket King, can help.
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Twins Need to Focus on Future, Not Old Favorites
Nick Nelson posted a blog entry in Nick's Twins Blog
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Without exception, each spot on a team's 25-man roster is important. In any given week, it is likely that every last one of those players will see action in a game. On a contending team, all 25 openings should ideally be filled by guys who can play a meaningful and valuable role. Those roster spots can also be used to protect assets. A rebuilding team might choose to put a Rule 5 pick in the last bullpen slot, or stash a project who's out of options at the end of the bench. What is puzzling is seeing a future-focused team such as the Twins using its 25-man roster spots in a way that could only be described as haphazard. In their ongoing mission to reassemble veterans who took part in their last successful run, the Twins have repeatedly cast aside young players with potential long-term value in order to roster aging players in decline. First, there was Jason Kubel, who essentially beat out Chris Parmelee despite a poor 2013 and a mostly unimpressive spring. In fairness, that move didn't work out too badly, as Parmelee slipped through waivers. Kubel made good on the decision with a fast start, but he has fallen apart at the plate (28 strikeouts in his last 63 plate appearances) while Parmelee is raking in Triple-A. It's not clear that the correct decision was made here, but it was understandable and nothing was hurt at the end of the day. Giving a roster spot to 34-year-old Jason Bartlett, under the pretense that he'd be an asset as a play-anywhere utilityman despite having no history of doing so (not to mention being a year removed from playing), was much harder to figure. That blunder did hurt. Bartlett looked terrible, got hurt and retired. In order to stage this fiasco, the Twins waived and lost Alex Presley, who -- while no great shakes -- happened to play at a position where Minnesota has turned out to be dreadfully thin. And so we all stared apprehensively at Matt Guerrier's opt-out date on the calendar. To be clear, I have nothing against Guerrier. I liked him when he was here, and he can probably be a perfectly decent middle reliever. But that's no given, considering he's 35, and is coming off a bad year, and wasn't particularly impressive during his warm-up stint in the minors. On Thursday, the Twins called up Guerrier to avoid having him opt out of his contract. To make room for him, they didn't need to waive anyone from the 25-man roster, but they did send down Logan Darnell after a strong debut, and they had to outright pitching prospect Brooks Raley, who was snatched up by the Angels. I'll be honest: I don't know much about Raley. I've maybe seen him pitch twice. I know he's a big, hard-throwing lefty with some control problems and mixed results in the minors. But I also know that he's a full decade younger than Guerrier, and that the Twins liked him enough to claim him just a few months ago. The signings of Kubel, Bartlett and Guerrier seemed fine during the offseason because there is no inherent risk in non-guaranteed minor-league deals. But when the Twins are exposing and losing young, cheap players left and right in order to give these guys chances, all the appeal is lost. If you're going to fill these spots with veterans, why screw around with reclamation projects? Why not spend the money to sign established quality players? This is what's frustrating about the Twins. In many respects, they still operate like a penny-pinching, cash-deficient franchise trying to uncover hidden values that have been overlooked by the rest of the league. Too often they've whiffed on these projects, and the upside -- now and going forward -- with a player like Guerrier isn't great enough to be dedicating playing time and a roster spot to him over younger players with real long-term upside. I have a hard time wrapping my head around what the vision is here.

