drjim
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Everything posted by drjim
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No. Lack of free agents in total.
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Fine. The financial realities of 1991 were also significantly different than the 2000s. The model really shifted after 1994.
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I think this type of thinking fails to take into account the lack of free agent options and the reality of a rebuild. We all want the Twins to be better but these two realities provide limits to what could actually be done in an offseason. I'm amazed at how much confidence people put in free agents. The Twins are getting out of this mess through internal improvement supplemented by free agents. Free agents themselves are not going to move the needle.
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Actually they aren't better. Mediocre again and the GM is about to get canned.
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Actually the Twins had the highest attendance in mlb history in 1992. The constraints were different and the financial model has changed significantly in 25 years. I would think this obvious.
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Mariners have. The other two haven't seen a similar rebuild as the Twins are facing. EDIT:I Actually Seattle is a great cautionary tale of trying to kickstart a rebuild through spending or trading prospects and remaining mired in mediocrity.
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"Responsible" in regards to 2015 and beyond. I'm quite confident Pohlad knows exactly why Ryan is doing what he is doing and has confidence in him going forward. I'm sure Pohlad doesn't mind the extra cash but he surely realizes the impact losing will have on his bottom line.
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Alas, quality as you seem to define it probably doesn't exist in this free agent class.
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Good stuff Oxtung but I think you really break down the fine line walked by pitchers with mediocre stuff.
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Two points on this. I expect the Twins to commit about $20 mil in salaries next year to free agents (and more total). So I expect some significant outlays, it just so happens more is coming off the books in underperforming assets. Overall I expect the Twins to operate like similar revenue teams like the Cardinals, Braves and Mariners. They will sign good free agents but won't be able to outbid the Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox for the top shelf free agents. The real advantage of Target Field is they will be able to lock up their homegrown core and supplement with free agents. That is how the mid-tier matkets are successful in baseball. I fear people have free agent expectations for the Twins that don't match up to the reality of peer franchises.
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The post you are quoting is a continuation of a previous point where I had said that now Ryan has more money he is likely to spend more money on FAs and lock up their own guys. That is why I used the two separate points. On your second point, sure Greinke could be a cornerstone. But no chance he was coming here - but that is my opinion and it has been debated to death and resurrected many times. I really don't want to go there.
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I don't ignore it as much as accept the reality that the options last year available to the Twins didn't fit this description.
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They are different. That's why I separated them into two distinct points.
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I should clarify this point. I expect Ryan to sign two starters and a cornee bat, but the outlay for next year will be less than the total coming off the books, which is why payroll will still go down. There obviously is space to sign someone like Guerrero, but if the Dodgers come in and make an absurd offer it will be a little difficult to be too upset if the Twins don't beat it.
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David Price?
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He is definitely risk adverse, I don't think that has changed. I'm pretty confident the payroll will be less next year than it was this year. And it will be the right decision. I just don't think the comparison of your industry and his will ever perfectly work for a variety of reasons. For a quick example, would you spend money this year that locked you into future obligations for a diminishing (or non-productive) asset in future years? That would be a disaster, especially if you had expectations of future growth in 2-3 years that may require additional investment. I imagine you would spend unused budget on one off expenses that would result in growth, that would be a wise investment. Ryan tried to do that with Saunders but it didn't work.
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When looked at this way, the odds for any specific team is that they will not sign one of these guys. 30 teams with 3 guys available. In 2007 the Twins were in nowhere near the same position financially as they are now. I don't think this comparison has any bearing on what will happen going forward, though it should be noted that Ryan did sign an initial 4 year extension, who just balked at the 5-6 year extension at huge money, much like every small market team would do. Ryan's mistake, as you alluded to, was not trading him earlier and leaving the mess for the new GM to clean up. I don't think I claimed equal grounds of evidence. I am pretty sure I stated clearly that there really is no evidence to support my claim, but there is also no true evidence against my position because we have never seen Terry Ryan operate with a good team under the new financial reality. The little evidence I can gather in support of my position is that 1) He has spent more on free agents the past two years than he did all his other years combined (by a significant margin) and 2) He has locked up any player even remotely worthwhile (ie Perkins, Burton, Doumit).
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Article: What's the Plan: Byron Buxton
drjim replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think that is the wrong way to look at it. Guys whose primary weapon is speed will tail off, but Buxton obviously has a strong hit tool (and other tools as well). Athletic guys with plus hit tools and plate discipline age the best. I really think Buxton is about as close as one can come to the perfect prospect. I also think the thought of calling him up this year is insanity. -
Per Ben Badler Prospect Notebook: Jonathan Gray Looks Electric For Rockies - BaseballAmerica.com
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Per Ben Badler Prospect Notebook: Jonathan Gray Looks Electric For Rockies - BaseballAmerica.com
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Per Ben Badler Prospect Notebook: Jonathan Gray Looks Electric For Rockies - BaseballAmerica.com
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This may be true but on the other hand Ryan has committed almost $50 million to free agents in two seasons. I know we endlessly debate this on the board but a very good argument can be made that Ryan has been responsible in his spending rather than cheap the past two seasons. The ultimate point is that posts like these are nothing more than guesses. Ryan's actions in his previous tenure show nothing about how he will act this time. We really don't know what Ryan will do with money when he has a good team. FWIW, my guess is he will be more aggressive locking up his own players, he will be more willing to trade B level prospects, and he will make some free agent signings above and beyond what we have seen before. I don't expect Greinke like signings mostly because teams with similar revenue structures don't make them. I do grant these are guesses on my part as well and there is no actual evidence to back it up (though I would say the opportunity has yet to present itself one way or the other quite yet).
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The bigger issue for me is that the Twins will pay CF wages for a guy that will move to LF within a year. The Twins can go big on two FAs max, making one if them a LF doesn't seem ti be a wise use of resources. And it will be a lot of years for a 30 yo with two major injuries in his recent history.
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Article: Ron Gardenhire talks September roster
drjim replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Problem we have is that no one knows what caliber of prospect the "money issues" are preventing the Twins from acquiring. There is no evidence other than speculation based upon an unrelated transaction. -
Looks like the Mets are starting off with the often effective "rest and rehab" plan.
