drjim
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Everything posted by drjim
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Buxton. Barring a complete collapse in spring training he's starting. Twins wouldn't do this otherwise. The noise that is coming out of the front office is them not just handing the job to Buxton. But it's his. Always was.
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Hicks and Murphy were on the same full season WAR pace last year, even granting that catchers play less. But we are to assume this is Murphy's ceiling and Hicks' floor? Add in the fact Murphy is two years younger and catchers traditionally take slightly longer to develop and I'm not as sure.
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On a bigger point about Murphy I actually think this was more a risky mkve than a safe move for Ryan. He traded for 5 years of control of a potentially undervalued asset that has a decent shot of turning into a solid average or better catcher. The safe/mediocrity move would have been signing one of the veteran catchers floating out there (other than Wieters). This strikes me as a move that is helping to position the team for an extended run over the next 5-6 years.
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I would think Murphy sits at about a 2-2.5 WAR player. I think that is about where Hicks sits too. I would bet on higher WAR for Hicks mostly because catchers are bigger risks. But if Hicks was in a corner, which he would be opening day for the Twins, obviously his WAR would be lower. I would buy that there is a higher likelihood Hicks becames a multiple all star type, but I think that is a very small chance. I would even turn it around and say that because of positional scarcity there is a better chance that Murphy makes one all star team than Hicks (but a better chance Hicks is a multiple all star).
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Cameron was the archetype of all that criticized it. It is a stats vs scouting split on Murphy that will determine the outcome. I'm pretty skeptical of drawing strong conclusions on 24 year old catchers. I also think people are really overrating Hicks. 9 out of 10 seems strong.
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That would be impressive. I'm not always into comparable age statistics, but here they are: Age 23: Hicks .266 wOBA, 62 wRC, -0.6 WAR vs Williams .347 wOBA, 118 wRC, 2.0 WAR Age 24: Hicks .291 wOBA, 83 wRC, 0.1 WAR vs Williams .327 wOBA, 99 wRC, 2.2 WAR Age 25: Hicks .314 wOBA, 97 wRC, 1.5 WAR vs Williams .370 wOBA, 120 wRC, 3.3 WAR That's a pretty big gap. If people are paranoid about guys we trade reaching their absolute top line comp and don't leave any space for guys acquired to have some upside, how can any trade look good? Do people expect Ryan to come in and wave a magic wand and pull off absurd trades in his favor? This strikes me as a pretty fair trade and use of assets by both sides - just like most national guys said. Cameron is the acknowledged exception - which certainly highlights the scout/stat split on Murphy.
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Did anyone explore the fact that Dave Stewart's wife is part of Chris Herrmann's representation? Or that Stewart used to be Herrmann's agent before becoming GM?
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I agree. I always thought it was going to be Plouffe, but probably not the case anymore. I think Sano is in LF and Rosario in RF and then Kepler is AAA depth (probably needs at least a half season anyways).
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I read all this and I generally think we get exactly the candidates that we deserve. I would go even further and say that the last two elections have included, with the massive exception of Sarah Palin, perfectly acceptable candidates. 5 out of 6 ain't bad... On another point, saying that you don't understand how a political party you don't support could nominate someone you don't agree with seems to answer its own question.
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I do like the reverse Duensing rule with the Gilmartin inclusion. Intriguing trade on paper that would never happen in reality.
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I suspect enough Americans will take you up on this offer.
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To be clear and in fairness, Carson didn't mention Moses and the pyramids, he said Joseph (Moses reference was honest mistake by Mike). And the Bible isn't clear what the granaries of Joseph were made of.
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I know this is potentially opening a can of worms on another controversial aspect of Hunter, but I thought it was very telling that Morneau showed up to his retirement press conference this afternoon. Perhaps that fight between the two was vastly overrated.
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If wonder if this means Hicks or Rosario are on the block. That isn't talked about much, but could make some sense to balance assets on the roster, and they should have pretty significant value as potential CFs.
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OK, so I know that scene, just didn't catch it from the screen grab posted.
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You don't know how they would come to conclusion that Joseph built granaries before the plague in Egypt? Historically (talking 1500 years ago and earlier) there had been speculation by some that that was the purpose of the pyramids, but that was also before we had the technology to learn what was actually inside and had a better understanding how they were built. Of course this is "charm" of the problem of Carson and others of his ilk, not exactly interested in any of that modern science or stuff.
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I'm quite skeptical of Clinton crushing anyone, that seems a tad optimistic. I think she scratches out a victory, but I wouldn't put it any higher than 60-40 that she wins right now. I'm not really out of touch with the facts on the ground, I'm quite aware of why the election results happen, which can probably be summed up as the Democrats don't have a platform that appeals to the majority of the voters the majority of the time. I also don't think this is due to incompetence, but rather a mix of ignorance of what voters are actually dealing with and prioritize in their life, combined with arrogance of an attitude that if people just weren't so stupid and understood what they were offering and weren't being tricked by those dirty Republicans they would win more elections That strikes me as something they Democrats might want to remedy, rather than hope that every Presidential election breaks their way and throw up their hands otherwise. I will acknowledge that part of the problem is that the party of the sitting President takes lumps, especially in midterms, but this is now about as bad as it can get. And, in my mind, the elections should be fought on economic issues that would seem to favor Democrats, but they obviously haven't offered solutions. Republicans haven't exactly either, but they have at least offered someone to blame and emphasized issues that are more of an emotional outlet for very real concern and discomfort felt by the electorate. A winning strategy considering the alternative.
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I feel like I should know this movie reference. Alas.
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No. He is referring to granaries built by Joseph 400 years before Moses was born. Joseph rose to power in Egypt under the Pharaoh by predicting that Egypt would face a severe famine, building granaries to store food that would be able to be used during the famine. When this came true, he was promoted to the top advisor of the Pharaoh. This famine is also what brought Jacob and the brothers of Joseph back to Egypt and settled them there to eventually be enslaved as the Jewish people over the next several centuries. *For the record, I am not endorsing or defending or supporting Carson in this. It is a ridiculous theory. Pyramids were not granaries.
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And if young people aren't inspired by the issues and can't bother to vote (and is anyone sure they'll bote for a Dem not named Obama), perhaps they should consider policies attractive to older voters.
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These strike me as lame excuses for a political party. I'm a little skeptical of the off year/Presidential year divide. 08 was probably an aberration and Obama is skilled enough to cobble together a coalition, but not exactly sure that will be repeated going forward. Otherwise the Dems get crushed. As far as fear, that is preferable to voters over nothing. There are many, many people facing tough circumstances and there is very little being offered. I'll ask the same question I asked in 14, what exactly do Dems offer that would inspire someone not naturally inclined to vote for them to consider the party? I think Clinton should be able to scrape out a victory, mostly because the opponent will be mediocre, but she has to be very careful. Outside of that hard to see the Dems doing much else.
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Stink is one way to put it. Offering nothing of substance to inspire people to actually vote would be another. Shouldn't Dems be embarrassed that they can't beat a two-faced moron?
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It's a real mystery why Democrats keep losing elections with responses like this.
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Would You Hire Ron Gardenhire?
drjim replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This also strikes me as a possible outcome for Gardy too. I don't sense he is so pig headed that he wouldn't adjust to a new model of playing if it came from above. Have a bench coach that can help out with defensive alignments and other in game strategy and let Gardy handle other aspects of the job, such as being leader, keeping players motivated, being a public face for the organization. If he has talent he has proven he can lead them to plenty of wins. What happens after that... -
On a similar note, Trump continues to fascinate me. He appears to be running out of steam a little, but still is clinging to the lead Leaving aside the personal complaints against Trump, what fascinates me is the demographics he has managed to capture. He is getting the white, more moderate(ish), secular, lesser(ish) educated part of the population. He has captured something from a segment of the population that is large, but that is not at all represented by either political party and is generally ignored by elites (including political, media, business, religious, etc). There is news that the death rate of middle class white males is increasing, contra every other demographic and every other advanced country. This is representative, in my mind, of a certain despair in that group. They are getting squeezed out of the labor market (either lack skills for jobs available or the low skilled jobs don't pay enough to support a family) and it is manifested further in low marriage rates, high divorce rates, poor health metrics, declining church attendance (representing cutting off social organizations), increasing debt, minimal savings, and many of the other bad indicators that aren't being noticed by college educated people in our country. Can either party offer anything to this demographic? Do they even care? In my mind this is the biggest political and social question facing our country, and there is nothing really being offered. Makes "extremist" candidates that much more attractive.
