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TheLeviathan

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Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    If you preface a question by knowingly eliminating the two obvious examples of evidence.....why ask the question? You seem to have your mind made up already.
  2. TheLeviathan
    I do think it's a good thing all these awful defenders and non-OFs will no longer be in the OF. That is a plus for the team's defense. We also know from Gardy and others that Arcia is just not comfortable in LF - so we added an aging RF and moved a bad RF to a spot he feels even less comfortable. There is a chance we don't see as much improvement from that positive as we hope simply for that reason. I still think adding a rangy CF would dramatically reduce this problem, even if the guy can't hit worth a lick.
  3. TheLeviathan
    You're not using the metrics correctly if you take one random team and then randomly compare stats to league averages. The Twins and Royals compare favorably in many ways and they happen to be on opposite sides of the defensive spectrum. The Indians are another that appear negatively affected that you could swap in. In any case I'm not sure why anyone would disagree bad defenders hurt your pitching staff significantly. If you want to see another analysis of how impactful it can be, here is a link: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2014-mlb-playoffs-exploiting-kansas-city-royals-ultimate-outfield-jarrod-dyson-alex-gordon-lorenzo-cain/
  4. TheLeviathan
    comparing KC to some league average or something is probably not a very effective way of going about a point. It seems better to compare KC to a team that does things in a similar regard (which the Twins do, many of the peripherals are similar from LD%, to GB%, etc.) to see if there is a difference in defensive execution.
  5. TheLeviathan
    There are a number of errors or partially demonstrated ideas here: Team BABIP: KC was .292 and MIN was .315 FIP: KC had only a slight edge, but you failed to mention Minnesota was - .61. So over a half run worse per game LD% - the Twins and Royals were almost identical, yet there was a significant difference in BABIP The Twins appear, by contrast to the Royals, to have had similar pitching numbers but gave up many more runs. What, other than bad defense, would explain that?
  6. TheLeviathan
    People also managed to live without indoor plumbing but I'm not using your logic in that scenario either.
  7. TheLeviathan
    The outfield defense is atrocious and that is assuming Hicks is the starting CFer. With a heavy fly ball staff that gives up a lot of contact....that likely cost us more games than can be adequately measured. There are several studies that have shown just how impactful the KC outfield was last year and that was with a pitching staff that struck batters out with much more frequency. Frankly, until the defense out there improves I don't see this team contending.
  8. TheLeviathan
    I like the way you said this. A study that shows BA or ERA vary the same as a defensive metric isn't a good thing. Defense doesn't involve nearly as much luck or other variables that change the outcomes. A good fielder should be a good fielder barring anything but aging, injury, or Chuck Knoblauch disease. BA can and will vary due to a great many more factors. It's nice that the metrics are getting better, but I always bristle at comparing a subjective-based stat with one derived purely from objective outcomes. ERA and UZR are really apples and oranges.
  9. TheLeviathan
    I'm confused why you would have to do that?
  10. TheLeviathan
    I would argue that there is not a "good chance" of that at all for precisely the reasons laid out. The Hughes extension made total sense because in the best case scenario you save tens of millions on a pitcher and worst case scenario you paid him roughly market value if he becomes average. He'd have to have a career ending injury for it to be bad. Dozier? Arbitration and team control protect you from the worst case scenario and you risk getting rid of that protection in the name of buying out years when he is 33 and 34 years old for the benefit of saving a few million. That's a terrible guiding principle for extensions and I sincerely hope the Twins realize that.
  11. TheLeviathan
    Calling out erratic contributions isn't diminishing him. I'm more than a bit irritated with that constant scarecrow. This isn't about whether or not we are going to start Brian Dozier or whether or not to trade him, this is about handing him a bunch of money outside of team control now before that issue has to be decided. But let's examine your points - in the last two years Dozier has played in 12 months. In 7 of those 12 months he has had less than 10 XBHs in a month. His BABIP is actually relatively steady but for that fluke month in August that throws off your 2nd half vs. 1st half OPS comparison significantly. Lots of fine players are bad long-term investments, that doesn't make them bad players. Just makes them risky investments. We have ZERO reason to take any risks on Dozier, so why do it?
  12. TheLeviathan
    I don't trust them, but it's hard not to see how they were accurate about the Twins last year. At worst, the criticism of the team's philosophies are valid. We have an awful defensive outfield and a fly-ball pitching staff.....that's just a really bad idea no matter what stats you trust to bear that out.
  13. TheLeviathan
    Brian Dozier is still a prospect? That seems like a bit of a stretch. I don't think you extend players unless you think you're going to save a bunch of money. (Like Hughes, his contract was an obvious bargain for what he did last year) Dozier doesn't appear to be in that position given that he'll be past his prime by the time he hits FA There is so little to gain by extending him and so much at risk that I think it's a bad idea. But lets be clear: Brian Dozier was a 98 OPS+ in 2013 and even that success was largely driven by two great months that were surrounded by two awful months and two ok months. 2014 was a great first half, followed by a very weird second half that saw him have a huge BABIP fluke in August and July where his BB/K ratio was 3/25. So if that erratic production is evidence of Brian Dozier still adjusting.....why the hell are we investing in a player who is still adjusting? That's the whole point of using team control to see what a player can do before you have to make a long-term decision.
  14. TheLeviathan
    How do you know if your pumpkin isn't a stagecoach when you never dig them up to find out? The big leagues are often the last and most difficult adjustment for any prospect, but they have to actually be there to adjust. I'm a firm believer that at some point there is nothing left to prepare you at AAA, but this organization has a weird tendency of stalling out arms when they get there.
  15. TheLeviathan
    As I said in another thread, given his age and the teams control there is no need to give him one. Combine that with his erratic offensive production and you run a very high risk of that unnecessary deal you inked blowing up in your face.
  16. TheLeviathan
    Of course ST has value for getting ready physically for the season, but even in an "open competition" is it really that valuable? You're playing against bastardized lineups for shorts stints with often 8-9 guys pitching in a single game. It's part of why the notion that a true open competition is silly in any sport. Is Teddy Bridgewater lighting up future CFL players really grounds to give him a job over Cassell? Is Tommy Milone blowing away a B squad for 3 innings better than May giving up two runs against an A squad in three innings? ST doesn't matter for anything more than physical prep.
  17. TheLeviathan
    Milone has such great value he was dealt for Sam Fuld. C'mon now.
  18. TheLeviathan
    Why, every year, do we keep fooling ourselves that spring training matters?
  19. TheLeviathan
    Strictly using OPS seems a tad silly does it not? One month it's a high BABIP, one month he's handing out HR souvenirs, the next month it's something else. The guys profile offensively is schizo, which in my eyes, makes sustainability more questionable. Was his second half OPS similar...sure. But it ignores an August BABIP that was 100 points higher than his usual one that drove that OPS when the power sapped. I'd suggest this heavy-handed, one stat analysis is a pretty disengenuous way to argue for an extension. Dozier is a good player we have several years of team control through his peak years and you combine that with his erratic offensive contributions and, IMO, you are taking a wildly unnecessary risk to extend him.
  20. TheLeviathan
    Yeah, if you read that as actual competition I refer you to the football QB competition analogy again, the phrasing is the exact same. He's hoping for pressure to "reach down" for them. I think the decision as all but made barring injury: this is Milone and Pelfrey's competition for two roles, but both have spots already.
  21. TheLeviathan
    I'd like this signing more if we had moved one of our other veteran relievers at the deadline and/or non-tendered a few.
  22. TheLeviathan
    Solid Ryan-like bullpen signing.
  23. TheLeviathan
    Just saying...but it may help our developing young starters if we had guys that could field in the outfield.
  24. TheLeviathan
    Count me as someone who believes Dozier's second half numbers are cause for concern. Dozier's method of contributions are very erratic and I am uneasy investing heavily in that sort of player. I still need to see more from him before I want an extension.
  25. TheLeviathan
    Also, everytime I see Kennys Vargas I'm amazed at how big of a dude he is for a baseball player. Damn I'm glad we are the ones with a switch hitter built like him, wow.
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