kab21

Of course Hicks has upside but I think you are underselling Murphy's upside. If the Twins end up with a .700 OPS catcher with average to above average defense that catches 120-130 games then this trade is almost certainly a win for the Twins. It can also be a win for the Yankees.

Compensation picks don't help smaller market teams. Better teams have more good players and thus more players that get QO's and draft pick compensation. Big market teams actually get more comp picks which put them further ahead of smaller market teams. In addition to that the penalty for signing a FA is more severe for a small market team because they must rely on their farm system so they usually pass on top/mid level FA's even if they can afford a top/mid FA. Draft pick compensation (old and new systems) have done way more to hurt small market teams than to help them.

Upside is that he improves and hits like he did last year and develops into an above average defender that isn't a FA for 5 more years. Capps is more like Jepsen. Guys that are placeholders for 1 or 2 seasons until something better comes along.

Murphy is nothing like Capps. Capps was old, mediocre and going to be a FA.

I think Jeff Sullivan might be jumping the gun a little on this one. Hicks had a great month, an okay month and 3 awful months. This was how almost every season went in the minors also and the LHB question is still there. Perhaps he becomes a really good player like Gardner but that lacks the certainty stated above.

Inflation Dave. Inflation. Crazy money is coming into baseball. An average hitter that is playing catcher will get PAID.

I completely agree that teams shouldn't but what teams shouldn't do and what teams actually do are two entirely different things.

The Kimbrel trade appears to be a win win for both clubs and should make it obvious what direction the Padres are going (i.e. no interest in Plouffe). I was interested in Kimbrel for the Twins but giving up really good prospects for 3 yrs of a closer didn't seem like the best idea. I also hold on to the snowball's chance in hell that the Twins go after Zimmerman. This is an amazing SP class of FA's. 4 aces are rarely available in the same year. It is probably rare that 2 consecutive FA classes have this kind of talent.

Go back and read the arguments against Wieters. They are almost entirely based on the uncertainty that he is healthy and didn't catch many back to back games. If he catches 120+ games this year and hits reasonably well then he is likely to make a lot more next season. The fact is that if he tested the open market then Boras would have been struggling to do better than 3/45 or 4/64 for him. If he does the above then 5/100 is certainly possible next offseason (3M/yr better than McCann).

Morales is already under contract for this year but I think it would have been hard for him to decline a QO. Apparently there are 3 that accepted QO's this year. Rasmus, Wieters and Anderson while Estrada signed a contract before making a decision. I agree with both Rasmus and Anderson accepting since their market could have been lukewarm and I understand why Wieters accepted. He wants a big contract at age 30 instead of settling for a 3-4 yr deal this year. Which FA's do you think will have a hard time signing a contract considering the loss of the draft pick? I see Gallardo being a tough one to justify a long term contract and the loss of a draft pick. The 34 yr old less than durable Iwakuma looks like a tough sign unless he goes back to the Mariners. Lackey has pitched really well since TJ but he is 37. Ian Kennedy hasn't pitched that well for the most part. Samardzija has a little Ricky Nolasco in him. His results have rarely matched his otherwise good peripherals. Nobody could have predicted the injuries but this would have been the knock against Nolasco at the time. Some pitchers just give up a few more run than they should. I think he signs with some ease because the peripherals are good and he is durable.I wouldn't be surprised if at least 2 or 3 of these return to their former team. Kendrick, Murphy and Desmond are a bit fringy but I think they will sign. I can't wait to see what team signs Wei Yin Chen. This directly affects which games are televised in Taiwan next year. Please don't let it be an awful NL team. The games would be awful and they would rarely play the Twins.

I don't think this has much to do with the FA catching market. I think this is a bet that a fully recovered 30 yr old Wieters will get a contract possibly double what was available this year. Boras has been wrong before but not often.

Absolutely. That is 20M that could be spent somewhere else (like Jordan Zimmerman)

A little bummed but I probably am not going to see Park play in Taiwan this weekend. The travel logistics are so much easier to see JP/USA the night before. And it is a much nicer stadium to see a ballgame in.

That value is tied to him being a 3B though. he doesn't check any other boxes for teams as a primary choice. Nobody is giving up something valuable to put him at 1B or DH. It is nice that he can play there but there is a huge value difference between 3B and DH for a guy like Plouffe. Zobrist (or even Daniel Murphy) is a guy that can check multiple boxes for a team. And both of those guys are also FA's. Todd Frazier almost certainly has to be on the block. the Rangers have a top prospect to dangle as trade bait. The few teams that are looking for a 3B have several option besides Plouffe.

I find it hilarious that people are criticizing JR Murphy and then thinking Turner is part of the solution at catcher for the Twins. Murphy had a .733 MiLB OPS compared to turner's .674 (and sinking) OPS. And Murphy debuted in the majors at almost the same age that Turner was debuting in the minors. Murphy is 10x better than Turner. I think many are overrating how easy it is to acquire a really good catcher. Wieters is kind of expensive and costs a draft pick, Lucroy is going to cost top prospects, Norris might be available but he isn't a great hitter (pretty good) and he has a bad defensive reputation. I think some are using catching defensive stats as absolute. Especially for players with small samples. JR has some pretty solid (or good) defensive scouting reports. I feel much better with him behind the plate than platooning Suzuki with some random 35 yr old catcher. He isn't an exciting player but he should solidify the position for quite awhile. The simple fact is that the Twins had (still have) too many OF'ers and almost zero catching depth. They might have given up a little more value in Hicks but I am not sure he will ever hit enough from the left side to be a full time starter. I won't lose any sleep losing him. He might make the Twins regret this trade but that can happen with any trade.

How disappointing? the Wolves played against Jeremy Lin (and the Hornets) and the game was played on cable in Taiwan and Rubio and Wiggins were hurt and the offense looked awful. Towns looks amazing though. He is crazy athletic and a defensive stopper. I think Bjelica fits in perfect with a Rubio/Towns team. I am not sure if he has any offensive game other than standing behind the arc swinging the ball around or shooting it but that opens up the lane a lot for Rubio to create. And Towns can compensate for the defensive shortcomings. Payne looked like a serviceable big. He gets by based on will instead of skill (one of Jalen Rose's recent conversations) but he does the necessary things well. Dieng looks a bit invisible and I guess right now he is the one sort of valuable trade chip that the Wolves have. I would still like to see what Lavine could do at wing with the first team but he might be the best option to run the 2nd team for 15 minutes/night. Tyus Jones didn't look ready to play yet. Like him still though.

Very few of those 10 teams (just a guess on the exact number since it has been awhile since I looked at the teams) are competitive next season. Rebuilding teams don't trade for 29 yr olds with 2 years of arb left. For example the Braves and Brewers have been mentioned as possible destinations. they lost 94 and 95 games last year and have given every indication that they are rebuilding. Trading prospects for a veteran makes no sense for them.

Why doesn't 'X teams need 3B and Y teams don't' work? 3B is a really deep position with a lot of solid players. I am not intentionally limiting anything to make a point. I am actually looking at the market to make a point. I don't think anyone else is. I am being realistic about the teams that are interested in a veteran 3B.

You aren't disagreeing with me. I am just pointing out that this board will be irate for an extended period of time if Arcia is moved for basically nothing. Imagine the Chih Wei Hu trade bashing that occurred for weeks times 10. I still think Vargas is an intriguing prospect but I have been against being forced to start him opening day because Sano is playing 3B. I would be okay with it if we got a haul in a Plouffe trade though.

I guess I don't understand how the 3B market makes him valuable. There are at least 20 teams that are set at 3B with a veteran. For some reason 3B has become a deep position of fairly good players. Most of the rest of the teams are entering rebuild mode or have a prospect waiting that they might want to try out instead of trading something valuable for Plouffe. Plouffe's trade market and value is almost entirely tied to 2-3 (possibly 4 teams) and the direction that they want to take. If the Angels resign Freese and the Padres/Brewers rebuild then there is almost no market for him. And nobody is saying that Plouffe isn't valuable on the trade market. He doesn't have a lot of demand because very few teams are shopping for a 3B. That does affect his trade value in the short term though.

I do not consider Rosario to be a CF'er although he could play there adequately for a couple of months or even a season if needed. Even if Sano is moved to the OF I don't think the Twins make an offseason move with Hicks, Rosario, Buxton and Kepler. I think Buxton and Kepler start in AAA and come up when an injury happens or 1 of Hicks, Rosario or Park struggle big time. I predict an angry day/week when Arcia is shipped out for peanuts although there is a chance that he could stick as the 4th OFer next season. But I think he has worn out his welcome with the Twins. Vargas is a tough case if Plouffe isn't moved. There is a good chance he plays an important role with Mauer/Sano/Park at 1B/3B/DH but if he also behind Sano at 1B/DH then it becomes hard to keep him. I have a lot more confidence in Vargas right now than Arcia but position wise he is very difficult to keep. I am the biggest fan of Kepler long term but I have no problem trading any of Rosario, Hicks or Kepler if they return the right needed piece. They should have good value and they should return good value. If the FO rules out going after Wieters and Lucroy then I am calling the Padres and see which piece(s) they are interested in (including Vargas, Polanco, Plouffe and anyone not named Berrios/Buxton in the minors).

I think it funny how everyone talks down Plouffe and then they try to trade him (part of a package) for Lucroy or include 12M in dead money with him in a trade. He isn't that good.

He has averaged 3 WAR the last two seasons and each WAR is worth 5-6M minimum. But basically you are saying that you trade him for anything because he has to be moved? That is what it sounds like. I disagree.

This team has some pieces that actually look really, really good together. Crazy scenario - the Wolves actually win enough games to lose their top 12 protected pick to the Celtics. I think that scenario should be safe though but damn they have had some moments. Looks like Bjelica is going to play a lot and so far the stat lines look good. Perhaps he is putting up an empty stat line but he is at least spreading the floor.

I looked at all of the stadium measurements and they varied from 118 (387 feet) to 125 (410) in CF but some parks got really short down the lines typically 312-324 feet. The bigger reason for the offensive numbers is that the KBO recently expanded from 8 teams to 10 teams and last year they lengthened the season from 128 games to 144. But Park has had more than 2x as many homers as the #10th ranked HR hitter. That is impressive.