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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    I doubt Wiggins is ever going to be efficient when he has 3 offensive black holes (Rubio can create and pass) on the floor with him. I would strongly prefer to see Lavine starting as the 2nd wing. Perhaps he isn't a legit starting option on a good team but get him the minutes. PEKOVIC PLAYED!
  2. kab21
    I have to admit that it is really difficult to see any difference between Gordon's defense and Upton's OF adventure. It is also very likely that Gordon at age 36 will move better than Upton at age 32. I think it's funny how you overrate Upton's offensive value. Gordon almost matches Upton offensively but he doesn't hit HR's like Upton so there is a perceived big difference.
  3. kab21
    I can tolerate Rubio's shooting if the Wolves weren't starting Prince and also Garnet. I understand that the defense is good but you can't have 3 players that are near worthless offensively on the floor to start the game. Markieff Morris? Some baggage but it sounds like he could be dumped by the Suns. Due to salary matching it would require Martin to be sent back and the Wolves could include something marginally valuable if necessary. Like Shabbazz or Payne.
  4. kab21
    Gordon's deal is actually quite reasonable. 18M/yr for a 4-5 WAR player (3 of 5 last seasons = 5-7 WAR). I would say that it is 1 yr too long for a 32 yr old at his level of play but there is a chance that he earns the salary in only two seasons. 5 WAR at 7M/WAR for example. The crazy thing is that Upton and Cespedes could get more per season despite being less valuable than Gordon. Upton is younger but he doesn't have nearly as much value unless he breaks out and becomes the generational player that everyone thought he was half a decade ago. If it was my team then this is exactly what I would hope that they do. Keep winning.
  5. kab21
    If Sano DH's (or plays 3B) 2x/wk I think that still counts as playing everyday. There is no doubt that Sano is going to play everyday but it might not be in the OF every day.
  6. kab21
    Except that the Twins already have a 4th OF'er that isn't a liability defensively. Danny Santana completely changes the composition of the bench.
  7. kab21
    You only named starting positions. Arcia can make the team as the 4th OF'er if Santana also makes the team as UT IF/CF. And the team still has Rosario as an emergency CF. The 4th OF'er doesn't have to be able to backup CF.
  8. kab21
    I have a sneaky suspicion that Arcia has worn out his welcome with the FO/staff. I hope that I am wrong and he turns it around because he has amazing raw ability.
  9. kab21
    I haven't used SDI before but fangraphs flat out says that 3 years of UZR data is needed for the sample size to be sufficient. If someone combines his 3 yrs of SDI data together it shows an average fielder and if someone wants to claim that he is in decline defensively then 3 yrs of data would be needed. As of right now the only thing we can say based on stats is that he is an average defender.
  10. kab21
    there appears to be some sort of disconnect. I posted the ERA's to show that RP'ers naturally perform better than starting pitchers for many reasons that have been stated. Milone to go from an average SP'er to above average RP'er is pretty difficult to envision. Do you see any reason that Milone would become a better than average RP'er (let's target 3.25 ERA)? I think that is very unlikely but I think that is very likely from May. Which brings me back to my original point that you seem to endorse. May SP > Milone SP (May is not even guaranteed to be better but there is upside) May RP >>>>>>>> Milone RP It is very unlikely that Milone's stuff plays up in the bullpen for any of the reasons that Mike previously stated. It is very likely that Mays' stuff plays up and the stats (not a huge sample size) back that up so far. Of course Milone could take the Perkins route to stardom in the bullpen but that is rare for someone that throws 87. Even if he added 3-4 mph to his fastball like Perkins he is only hitting 90-91.
  11. kab21
    Forget about ERA. Do you see anything in his profile that indicates that he would be better as a RP'er than as a SP'er? There are reasons that SP'ers go to the bullpen (you have mentioned some) and get better. Milone doesn't fit that profile. And I will ask this again. Can you envision him as a good 7th/8th inning guy? This is what an above average RP'er is.
  12. kab21
    Actually you can compare ERA's and make a guess as to whether or not Milone will see the same improvement when moving to the pen. And if you are going to consider Milone an above average RP'er then he should be in the 3.25 ERA range (.50ish better than average). Do you think that is likely? I think no for both. Or we could phrase it a different way. Would you put him anywhere near the 8th inning (setup guy role)?
  13. kab21
    I don't think this is true in the rather extreme examples of May and Milone. Milone doesn't have 1 or 2 great pitches that play up in the bullpen. May's stuff on the other does play up. I especially disagree with your average starter = a better than average RP'er. Last year SP'ers averaged a 4.11 ERA and RP'ers averaged 3.71. I am not even sure that Milone would make up that split much less become better than average.
  14. kab21
    This is not the argument at all. Here is the argument: May SP > Milone SP May RP >>>>>>> Milone RP And the rotation still has Berrios as the next man up and his upside is higher than May. The rotation without May is still very good (not said often for the Twins). Yet my preferred plan would have been to sign a good RP'er (often questionable investments though) and keep May in the rotation but I am not going to think it is the end of the world or a dramatic decrease in May's value. Queue the 60 innings talk...
  15. kab21
    I think he is going to rebound just enough to stop the 'gotta sit him' or 'offer him a buyout' talk but not enough to make everyone happy. .285/.365/.410/.775 solid but not real good for a 1B man. that might make him a 2.5-3 WAR player though.
  16. kab21
    If the Twins signed a 5-10M player for the stopgap OF/4th OF role then many would be complaining that he was going to block a deserving prospect. If the Twins sign a veteran on the cheap for the role then many will complain that he isn't good enough. If Sweeney can still hit RHP then I like this move. Santana and Sweeney can platoon at the beginning of the season if Buxton isn't available at the beginning of the season. And there is still room for Arcia on the bench. And it is really easy to promote Buxton to replace a guy making <1M. That isn't If Buxton isn't the starting CF out of spring training then it is Buxton's fault that he didn't play well. I don't see Mastro or Benson being part of the equation. AA/AAA depth at best. Sweeney actually has an MLB role if he bounces back.
  17. kab21
    The definition of irony. Cervelli is named as a missed opportunity by the Twins. The hindsight in this thread is awesome.
  18. kab21
    The Russell Martin thread from last year was short but there was negative sentiment on the deal. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/15973-blue-jays-sign-russell-martin/ Quotes are from Seth Stohs, biggentleben, Kirbywavedatme, Mike Sixel and twinsfanstreif. These are not a sampling of don't sign anyone until 2019 when the team is finally ready to compete. If you want to get an idea of board sentiment to signing 30+ yr old catchers to long contracts then maybe you should go back to the Wieters threads from before he accepted the QO.
  19. kab21
    Yes, there were starters on that list that didn't cost the farm. They involved giving 82M to a 31 yr old catcher. Or trading for a 31 yr old 40M (3yrs) catcher that was showing decline. If the Twins had made either of those moves this board would have blasted them. I actually don't have ridiculously high standards at catcher. I think JR Murphy is an acceptable long term catcher. Sure I would like to do even better but he is cheap and he only cost Aaron Hicks. Hicks is a nice player with upside but there were already many that didn't think he had a long term place in the OF with Rosario, Buxton and Kepler coming up (not to mention Sano possibly).
  20. kab21
    Rubio came close to a quadruple double last night and continues to be really good (not great). I remain very excited about Towns and Wiggins short term and long term. Towns and Dieng might be the best big man combo for the short term although I am not sure I really like it. Bjelica seems to have faded since his hot start but he did tweak his knee. I am glad that they are starting to do away with this hockey style line change. I never understood how this team can play 10+ minutes with Prince, Garnett and Rubio on the floor together. I don't care how great the defense is. I want to see more of the Lavine/Rubio backcourt even if it means Miller has to play 10+ minutes a game. Martin better fix his wrist and shoot straight because he doesn't do anything else well.
  21. kab21
    So if this was the team that you were dealt (no significant RP additions) you would still roll with Fien as the 7th inning guy and an uncertain Perkins as closer? I don't like it but this is how the pieces fit together for this roster. There is a lot of rotation depth and nothing in the bullpen. The frustrating thing is the Milone is going to cost 4ish M in arb this year (more next year) and he doesn't really have a solid place on the team (5th/6th starter with Berrios coming up). A solid RP would only cost 3/20 (or so).
  22. kab21
    The White Sox have never had a good (and especially deep) farm system. I don't like the methods of building a team but it is the way that they roll and if they add a couple more players then they are going to have a solid team.
  23. kab21
    I guess there have been some that don't like May as a starter but this really isn't the opinion of many and definitely not myself. May is certainly a better starter than Milone but the bullpen needs a backend guy. The rotation actually looks pretty good overall (albeit lacking a #1/2) for the first time in a long time. If the Twins bring in a Jepsen level RP'er then I would strongly prefer May in the rotation and Milone in the bullpen but Milone is most likely a 6th inning guy or a lefty specialist.
  24. kab21
    The missed opportunity was getting a Cervelli type backup. The missed opportunity was not upgrading from Suzuki with a long term answer at the position. That kind of catcher is really difficult to acquire as shown in these so called missed opportunities.
  25. kab21
    How are they going to better use Sale and Abreu's prime by waiting 2-4 years for their mediocre farm system to produce a couple of average at best players? If a team can trade alright prospects for above average players then they are making good trades. The White Sox certainly have a few holes on their roster but the alternative is to tear it completely down and rebuild by trading Sale and Abreu. Their farm system is not going to build a team around Sale and Abreu anytime soon.
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