kab21
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Everything posted by kab21
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credibility lost. Sano is a complete boom/bust prospect. You're right to have concerns but he's also a 19 yr old playing in full season ball with 80 (out of 80) power. it's also encouraging that he has a 2:1 K:BB ratio (he's not only striking out) and a .250 isoP in a pitcher's league. I have always thought that Twins fans overrate him but he's a really good prospect. If the Twins were in a different place (competitive) then I would consider trading him for an ace that could put the team over the top. But they are awful and not even Felix Hernandez will make the difference.
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Injuries aren't the reason the Twins are bad. Injuries took this team from bad to terrible but over ten years in the draft the farm system didn't feed very much talent to the majors. Obviously nobody expects the most recent drafts to have made the majors and there are still some good prospects in the system from these drafts but very little has helped the Twins yet. They got a good starter (Baker), a mediocre starter (Slowey), a pair of lefty relievers, the abomination known as Delmon before getting some help this season (Plouffe, Revere and Diamond (bullock)). Unless you're the Yankees you need to bring up more talent than this to stay competitive. Blackburn's terrible contract has nothing to do with the Twin's problems. It was a bad decision in hindsight but 5M this year and 5M next are not even remotely close to the reason that the Twins are in the position that they are in.
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I expected good things from Kubel since he was moving to the NL and into a prolific hitters park (if he stays healthy). Maybe fangraphs can do another piece on Kubel since they hate him.
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I mention him as a Joe Mauer type hitter, not as the next Joe Mauer. here's an article from January that says he went from 6'3" 175lbs when he signed to a current 6'3" 210 now and he thinks he might get to 240. http://www.heinnews.com/baseball/mlb/one-on-one-minnesota-twins-german-outfielder-max-kepler/
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Best case scenario imo is that the Twins get a haul for Span and willingham at the deadline and they sign a decent veteran like Hunter on a short contract. That allows Benson/Hicks to compete for one OF spot and Hunter can occupy one spot. Parmelee can split DH/1B with Doumit/Mauer/Morneau. Just because a team is rebuilding doesn't mean that there can't be any veterans. The important thing is to make sure that they don't trade for any players 2-3 yrs away from FA, don't give out long contracts to declining veterans and don't sign so many that young players are blocked.
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According to the midseason prospect rankings the Twins have 4 near locks to be in top 100's (Sano, Buxton, Arcia and Rosario). I also wouldn't be shocked if Hicks or Gibson made it back into top 100's. Combine that with a lot of interesting lower level guys (Boyd, Boer, Goodrum, Harrison, Berrios) and the system is pretty good imo. There are better but there is a lot of talent although most of it is at lower levels and there are few good pitchers.
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Dempster is already 35 yrs old and he's been pitching in the NL. He's guaranteed to suck 3 yrs from now. You've described a bunch of low upside prospects for the most part. The Twins also haven't done a lot to restock with good arms in the last 2 drafts. They got a few good arms in Berrios, Boyd and Boer but that's not restocking a farm system, that's maintaining the status quo.
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Like I expected, you're not really interested in trading for either of them. There isn't a buy low opportunity in a league that values top starting pitching this highly. I'll trade you Buehrle for less.
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The problem that I have with shane's plan of going for option A and B is that there are only a couple good arms at the lower levels (or any level) that will be coming up with a really strong offensive core. I'm all about focusing on 2014/2015 and avoiding a 10M Dempster who will likely completely suck at that time and take up payroll.
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Of course you're interested but I consider both to ace-lites despite their mediocre seasons and the price is sky high. Like your 3 best starting pitching prospects for either of them. Still interested?
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7M/yr left on his contract does not slow this down at all. His injury history is what might make teams pause but it's also the reason that the Twins should shop him.
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Other than the Nats you didn't mention any teams that rebuilt recently. The rest of the teams have had good teams for quite awhile and have been bringing up impact players from the minors. The Twins are not and have not for awhile.
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With whom do young international signings live?
kab21 replied to Oxtung's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Kepler is a different case for sure but IIRC he enrolled in HS and I think his parents even moved (not sure about the last one). -
The early scouting reports suggested that he would hit a lot of groundballs and line drives which would limit his home run totals. Combine that with his plate discipline and you are looking at a Joe Mauer starter package as a hitter. Ultimately it limits his upside but he's likely to be a plus defender on the corners or decent in center and it still carries a lot of value.
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My team is completely crashing and burning this week. At least I don't have to be conflicted about selling while only a couple of games out anymore. I'm not even sure if I'll make anymore moves though. I've been putting Cuddyer and Buehrle out there but there really isn't any interest so I'm fine with riding out their golden years since I already have a lot of prospects. I'm trying to fight the temptation to shop McCann, Holliday, Haren and Garza though. Except for Holliday their value seems low and even Holliday seems to be overlooked this season. I think the BMH's can be .500 next year since there is some good pitching help on the way but it will take another year or two before you will be fighting for a playoff spot. It is frustrating that there are a few teams that are completely awful with no chance to win (Tim's team is also). But these teams are also going to be awful for several years and they are basically donating to the prize pool.
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Regardless if there are Braves fans in Wisconsin the Braves don't have a share of the Wisconsin baseball market that will factor into the draft pick lottery. I also doubt that this fractional minority impacts the baseball revenue.
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The Royals and the Pirates have been two of the most ineptly run franchises for the last two decades. If you followed teams other than the Twins you would know that they never committed to their farm systems usually taking the cheap route in the draft rather than the best talent and not spending internationally. Despite consistently having top picks both of these teams consistently had average to awful farm systems. The royals had 3 straight 100 game losing seasons when they signed Meche. They didn't sign him with illusions of competing. They signed him because they had money available and they wanted to spend it which is exactly what you are suggesting the Twins do. YOU DO NOT SPEND YOUR WAY OUT OF THE CELLAR. The Twins are bad/terrible and it's not going to get better until the Twins have more young players coming up than Revere/Plouffe.
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I keep seeing this thrown out there and I think it is complete bull. Awful drafting (sometimes to save money) and signing crappy veterans while never committing to rebuilding leads you down the path of the Pirates and Royals. It wasn't until a few years ago that both of these teams committed to building a farm system despite having early picks for over a decade. I would in fact contend that many are proposing going down the road that Cubs/Mets went down for a long time. Neither team committed towards rebuilding and tried to spend their way out of the cellar. The Twins can sign a FA or two but the plan has to be on building for a run 2014+ and avoiding long contracts to 30 something year old average (now) pitchers.
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I don't understand why some are clinging to Carlos Gutierrez still. He has had bad ERA's and K:BB rates for the last 4 years. He might make it as a solid reliever but I'm not holding my breath. And yes, he was a closer in college and the Twins drafted him with the intent to be a starter but the knock on him was that he didn't any consistent secondary pitches and that is why he ended up in the bullpen in MN. FWIW the reason that he was a closer in college was because he had TJ and he wasn't ready to be a starter when the season rolled around. The reason that the Twins had a long run was due some great drafts from '96-'01 where they landed Cuddyer, Jones, Mauer, Morneau and Kubel. Throw in Johan, Hunter and Nathan and they had an outstanding core. The big problems started in 2004 draft since they had 6 picks in the top 61 (finally Plouffe and Perkins are producing). Additionally the Twins ignored Latin America for awhile. Since then they just haven't been able to bring up reinforcements from the farm on a consistent basis. The big trades that they have made have not worked out at all. the good news is that the farm system is in pretty good shape currently although it's light on arms. And it sounds like JR is looking for some riskier but higher upside prospects instead of middling prospects.
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The Twins need to sign Liriano to a 2-3 year contract ASAP
kab21 replied to DaveW's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
If the Twins wanted to sign Liriano then they shouldn't have been running his name through the mud the last couple of years in the press. I pretty much don't see any chance of Liriano resigning with the Twins unless they are by far the largest bidder. I also think that Liriano could be one of the biggest values of the offseason. He'll probably sign for about the same as Brandon McCarthy. Now there is a guy that looks like a prototypical Twins pitcher. Low K's and BB's. Get ready for him on a 3/30 deal. -
Kepler went yard and is having a great July.
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The A's share the Bay area with the Giants and the A's get the Oakland part. There is no way that they aren't in the lottery. The tigers are the puzzling one as well as the Diamondbacks. At the same time it's hard to argue that the Minneapolis/StPaul should be one of the small market areas. The Twins were low revenue for a long time because of an awful stadium deal but the TC area is a strong market.
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The logic is that rebuilding thru FA is a terrible option. There is only so much FA can do for a 65-70 win team and you can't just throw dollars at it to fix it without affecting the future. FA makes sense when you can spend like the Yankees, when you keep contracts small/short (the Willingham/Doumit/Carroll contracts) or when you are an 85 win team needing that final push.
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Of course they are valuable to have but you need to think further about this. the Twins are likely to finish 20 games below .500. Even if the Twins signed both of them would they make up the difference? What happens when they turn into Derek Lowe or AJ Burnett at the end of the contract (or beginning?)? At that point the Twins won't have any payroll flexibility with 50M tied up between Mauer and two 35+ yr pitchers. That is a recipe for long-term disaster just to battle back to .500.
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They've had a nice first half but in the end they are 3.50-4.00 ERA pitchers. The Twins are 12 games under .500 after 89 games. Even if they signed both they would still be under .500 and these contracts are going to look really bad when each of these pitchers is 37. That's the problem with FA.