kab21

I've said it another thread but if you can't get Greinke/Marcum then it's better to stay away from the other medium name pitchers. they will way overpriced for their average-ness. here's a plan to placate the win now group and one that I don't mind. The important thing is that no long term pieces are traded away and the only big contract is Greinke. It will be a lot but he's a player that will definitely be good vs guys like Anibal and Edwin. those guys scream contract that you're going to regret. 1) sign Greinke for 5/100 or a little more backup plan is Marcum for 3/45 with a vesting option - he's pretty good but he has some injury problems 2) trade Willingham for Shields - swapping veterans from strengths to fill weaknesses on both teams - sucks to lose a 30+ HR guy but I'm not convinced that he'll be healthy in his age 34/35 seasons. And this gives Arcia/Hicks an opening. 3) sign baker to a 1/5 contract with 2 - 8M options - I really don't understand why everyone can't see that signing Baker for 1 yr is a good idea. If he sucks then he sucks but if he's good then he leaves. backup plan - I like the Villanueva mention above but stay away from Ervin. 4) sign scutaro or Izturis for 1-2 yrs at 5M - at least fill one of the IF positions with a solid player 5) budget 2/6 for a pen arm 6) extend Burton for 3/8 - lock him in for a couple of extra years at 3M to give the team some stability in the bullpen CF Span SS Scutaro C/DH Mauer 1B Morneau C/DH Doumit (and a little Parmelee) 3B Plouffe RF Hicks/Arcia/Parmelee 2B dozier/Escobar/Carroll/etc LF Revere Rotation Greinke Shields Diamond Hendriks somebody Gibson/Baker hopefully up by May/June Bullpen some people not named Gray FA RP'er Duensing Burton Perkins Payroll comes in at 105ish which is closer to where the Twins should be at. If they aren't able to land Greinke/Marcum then I'm not sure if payroll will make it much past 90M. There just aren't that many other players that make sense to spend money on. It would take some luck to get much past .500 with that lineup and the question marks at the bottom of the rotation but that's a solid team. I've opted not to try to trade Morneau and Span since I think there value is much lower than people think and I prefer to hang on to them instead of give them away.

If you want to sound like you don't know what you're talking about then you're off to a good start. Hunt was a 22 yr old college pitcher and Berrios is an 18 yr old HS pitcher. the problem that I have with the ranking is that they are still putting a guy like Angel Morales in the list. He hasn't done anything in 2.5 seasons and he'll probably be out of the org this offseason.

What is this nonsense about not being sure about Barry Larkin? Is the HOF going to be a 1B/OF and a couple of pitchers from now on? Larkin was one of the best SS's in baseball for most of his career. A guy like McGriff was very good but he was a 2nd tier player for most of his career because there are so many great 1Bman. Out of the guys currently on the ballot I would vote in Bagwell, Edgar and McGwire before McGriff, Delgado and Palmeiro (he's probably off by now). Thome and Thomas are definitely ahead of McGriff also when they are eligible. Konerko (and Ortiz) falls right into the McGriff and Delgado tier when he becomes eligible. I won't be upset if some of the fringe guys make it in but I doubt 2B/SS combined come close to matching the numbers of 1Bman in the hall from the 90's/00's. I'm all about Alan Trammell making it before the 2nd tier 1Bman.

Voter ID is just another example of the republican party putting its energy into a trivial issue. there are actual important things that they should be thinking about but instead their campaign completely lacks focus.

I looked at McGriff a few yrs ago and agreed that he was just below the cut. There are too many sluggers from that era that were just as good or better. And many of them don't have steroid links. McGriff falls behind Thomas, thome and McGwire (I don't care about the steroids for McGwire but that's another issue) of 1Bman not in the hall and right in with Bagwell, Edgar Martinez and Carlos Delgado. I would put him before Delgado in this tier but I don't think Delgado has a chance to make it. Palmeiro falls into this tier but I'm okay if you want to keep out marginal HOF'ers. And there are still guys like Helton, Grace, Mattingly, Will Clark, Galaragga, and probably another 6-10 similar marginal candidates.

I think I stated the reasons that I completely disagree with you above. Mainly it's hard to project your needs 2-5 yrs from now since that's how long it takes most draft picks to make it. As an example 2-3 yrs ago the Twins had a very good rotation. 5 yrs ago the Twins had a huge need for OF'ers and made that the focus of 2 trades. Neither of those trades worked out. I also think it's premature to think that there won't be a couple of moves in the next 2-3 yrs where OF'ers are traded for pitchers.

I have no problem with Appel being picked at #3/4 if he's the best available. I said the same last year. In fact I would consider it to be a bit of a steal since the Twins would have gotten Buxton (decidedly the BPA) AND Appel. If you allow need, proximity to the majors and signability to be the most important factors in the draft you set yourself up to lose over the long term. It's also very difficult to time the needs of the MLB team in the draft since it usually takes 2-5 yrs for most picks to make the majors. 3 yrs ago the Twins had a very good rotation and quite a few good (but not ace) arms in the minors. Just take the BPA (in the draft and trades) and worry about where to play them in 2-5 yrs.

Nice rant on voting but i really don't care enough to go thru the overseas absentee hassle. I haven't lived in MN (where I'm registered) in 15 yrs so I don't care much about the local elections and I'm not planning on going back to the US any time soon.

So this thread got derailed in typical fashion. I don't pay attention to much news here in Taiwan but I'm reading/seeing a few things that indicate that Romney has a chance to win. How the hell can this be true? he's an absolutely awful candidate even if you compare him to Obama. I would happy if Obama was not the president of the US but I can't honestly see how anyone is going to vote Romney other than those that just check all of the republican boxes. I have become completely disillusioned with the transformation of the Republican party over the last 20 years. They are completely irresponsible fiscally (even compared to Democrats) and I hate the power that the christian right has over the party. If I bothered to get an absentee ballot this might be the first year that voted for a democrat for president.

I have not been very interested in the Twins all season. I still follow but I actually have spent just as much time paying attention to the minors where some exciting things are happening. I had low expectations so I didn't bother buying the mlb.tv package and have only seen a handful of Twins games on TV since it's usually all O's (Taiwanese pitcher), Yankees and Nat's (other Taiwanese pitcher).

I agree that SP'ing is by far the biggest need but the Twins should absolutely be looking for a MI. I wouldn't mind getting a guy like Scutaro (or MIzturis) for 1/5 + an option. He might be old but he's actually decent compared to anything the Twins have played out there. And he won't have a long deal that could hurt the twins. the problem with addressing MI is that there just isn't much out there.

I don't have any problem trading Span but I don't think he'll bring back enough to make a trade worthwhile. I would be on board trading Span for Shields if the Twins were also willing to shell out the money for Greinke and really try to be competitive. the important thing about this deal is that they haven't really hurt their future much. I can understand that he's going to make too much but this is true of all FA pitchers. If you aren't willing to spend then you are going to be shopping in the Livan/Marquis/Ortiz section of the market. guys like Anibal/Marcum/Jackson are going to get 10-15M/yr. Marcum is actually pretty good but he seems like an injury waiting to happen.

there's a nice video of sano at the above link. Despite his high strikeout rates I don't see a long swing. I see a relatively compact, powerful swing. I also see less up and down head movement than a video from 2 years ago. He still dips his head/shoulders a little when he triggers his swing but mostly it's front to back body movement. tbh - I'm surprised that his swing hit 28 HR's since he's not overswinging at all. that really shows how much raw power he has and why he's ranked so highly. note - I don't watch a lot of video and someone more knowledgeable could have a different (better) analysis.

My thoughts are that he was absolutely awful the final two months of the season and he has only become a slightly better prospect. He's still interesting as an athlete but I have my doubts whether he'll ever do anything interesting in full season ball.

I would like to say trade both but I don't think you're going to get what you want for either of them. Span missed a lot time this season (contrary to the recent post) and likely would have minimal trade interest. I'm also not sure that Revere has a lot of value either. It's possible that a team like the braves match up perfectly if Bourn leaves and there could be a pitcher/OF'er swap but I think it's pretty likely that both OF'ers return next season because of a limited trade market. In an ideal world the Twins would be able to trade both Willingham and span for a decent set of prospects hopefully including pitchers. And since it looks like Willingham is going to finish the season strong I would put him on the block this offseason and next July.

First - that top 20 list just sucks but I've never thought that much of that site when it came to ranking prospects. Second - I think people spend too much time debating the rankings of the 2nd-5th prospects (and even Sano) in this system. They are all really close and they are also completely different. It's easy to understand why someone would be lower/higher on any one of them. Third - someone really needs to make an argument that Harrison is top 10. He has nice upside but he really didn't do anything in the appy league this year. An .844 OPS (with a .374 BAPIP) isn't that exciting from someone that will almost certainly be limited to 1B. Polanco who isn't even on MLB's top 20 list beat him in everything I look at including power and is supposed to have great defense. I don't think goodrum was slighted at all. He was absolutely awful after his amazing June. He has upside but he is a big work in progress. gibson still gets the shaft on that list (mentioned already). He is absolutely locked into the 6/7 spots with Berrios on my list with Kepler making the strongest case for #8. After that it's a lot more wide open.

The big advantage that E-Town has is that the Twins aren't splitting up their short season prospects between 3 leagues like several teams do. Guys like Kepler and Goodrum probably wouldn't have repeated at ETown if the Twins had a more advanced team below beloit.

change that to always. There's room in the bullpen and on the roster to get a look at both Slama and Perdomo. Just how many looks do we need to get at the Manship's of the system.

I'm not sure if Beane has a track record of trading for pitching prospects or if he approaches trades as taking the best available talent and worrying about where to play them later. I think Beane would be more than happy to take a hitting prospect or two. If you really want the Twins to be competitive next season then this is the type of move that you make but it's going to cost you something like Arcia and a lesser prospect. sign a decent FA, trade for Anderson, Diamond, sign/rehab Baker with Gibson up by midseason and Hendriks available. That could be a solid/really good rotation. It sucks to give up top prospects but that what it would take for those that want to win now.

I think 2015 is the best case scenario. 2 years for a HS pitcher to go thru A/AA/AAA is really fast regardless of which org he's in and the Twins usually err on the side of caution (but not horribly so). He is looking really, really good but I'm going to wait to get really excited until he spends a year in full season ball.

The ridiculous part of thrylos comments is that comparing a prospect's stat line (esp in low A) to HOF (and all star) players is ridiculous. There's nothing wrong with striking out at the rates that Sano does but it's difficult to maintain those rates as you move up in the minors. The scouting reports also suggest that there are concerns with strikeouts. I don't really understand what the discussion is about. i think everyone has him rated #1 on the Twins list and he looks like he'll be top 25 on most lists. He is a really, really good prospect but if you ignore the flaws then you are in for a letdown.

Fact 2 is just ridiculous.

I think the issue in this thread is that some statheads are slow to adjust their criteria when the game changes. I wouldn't be surprised if they think that SB's are overrated because of a book that came out a decade ago when baseball was in the midst of a steroid enhanced offensive era. At the time it made less sense to steal bases because you were more likely to get hits/HR's. Now the value of scoring ONE run has increased since it's sort of becoming a pitcher dominated time. guys like these give any that uses advanced stats a bad name. and to stay relevant to the thread Mauer is awful at throwing out basestealers and everyone is running against him. Making a blanket statement that SB's are overrated doesn't even come close to dismissing the damage that is being done. Almost every game the opposing team is getting a free base with almost 0% chance of being caught. FWIW I use stats a lot and I use a lot of advanced stats and I disagree with the above generalization.

Arcia going yard again.

That's all it takes for most teams. To get them either the Sox need to gut their system in a trade, sign all of the best FA's (and there aren't many good FA's out there) are the best available) or wait a couple of years. Bogaerts is a pretty exciting prospect though and he could be up for good at the end of 2013.