kab21

In 2018 Max Kepler hits .327/.398/.512/.910 and people are disappointed because he only hit 16 HR's.

Yikes!

Haren is my top SP target this winter since Greinke and Sanchez will be signed for a lot. I put him at 2/24 with a vesting option in my offseason plan but I could see him getting signed for more.

The goal is to build both MLB and MiLB starting pitching depth as well as add a solid MI'er and RP'er. The Twins have money to spend but this plan will avoid tying up any money long term. It would be great to suggest signing Greinke but just about every Twins fan knows that isn't going to happen. I'm also operating under the assumption that my second FA target (Sanchez) will be getting CJ Wilson money (5/75). Another assumption is that the Twins won't land 4 starters in FA. It's pretty optimistic that the Twins will get Haren, Baker and Villanueva while trading for Delgado in my plan below. Target budget 95-100M #1 - Sign Haren for 2/24 with a vesting option. He's a potential #1/2 if he comes back healthy. If he doesn't then he comes off the books relatively quickly. Backup plan = Marcum for the same contract. I don't really understand why everyone thinks Marcum is going to get a 1/6 contract. He finished the season healthy and he's been really effective. #2 - Trade Span (grudgingly) - Target Shields, Hanson, Minor, Delgado, Cingrani, Corcino. You should be able to make something work with one of those 3 teams and get back a pretty good MLB/MiLB pitcher. I'll proceed with getting Delgado back in the plan below. #3 - Sign Baker to a 1/5M contract with 2 team options. I think this is going to happen and the important thing is not to get Baker cheaply this year but to lock him in for 2 additional seasons and give the team some stability. #4 - Look into the Villanueva/Feldman tier of pitchers as backups plans in case any of the above fall through although you could just sign one of these guys and use them as a swingman. Let's put Villanueva down for 2/7M. #5 - MI - Try to get Stephen Drew on a 2/11 contract with one team option. Maybe he returns to being an above average regular and if he doesn't it's not a long term contract. I'll assume that Scutaro will get overpaid this winter and list Yunel Escobar as a backup plan. He might be a jerk but he has a 1/5 contract with two team options. #6 - RP - Matt Lindstrom 2/7 - Pretty effective guy to add to the 7th/8th inning mix and give the Twins some solid depth. #7 - Try to dump Carroll if you can find any takers #8 - Start bringing up guys like Gibson, Hicks/Arcia in June/July Lineup: C-Mauer - 23M 1B-Morneau - 14M 2B- Dozier/Floriman - 500K - the other will be in Roch SS-Stephen Drew - 5M 3B - Plouffe - .5M RF - Willingham - 7M CF - Revere .5M LF - Parmalee .5M DH - Doumit 3.5M Total: 54.5M Pitching: SP-Diamond - .5M SP-Dan Haren - 12M SP- Baker - 5M SP- Villanueva - 3.5M SP- Delgado - 500K Total: 21M RP- competition - 500K RP- competition - 500K RP- Fien - 500K RP- Lindstrom - 3.5M RP-Duensing - 1M RP-Burton - 1M CL-Perkins - 2.5M Total: 9.5 Bench U/MIF- Carroll - 3.75M bench bat - possibly a guy like Chavez or someone else that can hit - 1M OF- Mastroianni - .5M C- Chris Herrman - .5M Capps buyout - .25M Total: 6M Grand total: 91.5M I still have some money to spend so perhaps I'll add a player or two. This also gives me some extra room in case any of the contracts are more than expected.

I'm surprised that neither Marcum and Jackson got offers (possibly a few others). Greinke, Dempster and Sanchez were traded during the season so they don't qualify. I think Kuroda almost to go back to the Yankees due to the offer since it doesn't make sense to part with a 1st rd pick (the best 20 teams) to sign him.

His report is already busted. Teams don't wait more than a week to announce a done deal. i think it will still happen but if it was truly agreed on then it would have been announced. I highly doubt that they are waiting because they don't want to upstage Hurricane Sandy or the election.

Dempster is a bad example since he was traded midseason. If the pitcher is worth multiple years and 10+M/yr then he's worth a second round pick.

So this must make the Twins genius's for picking an army of RP'ers? I'm not sure I'm buying the whole article though. The data point is League and he was signed by a team that has shown it's basically willing to light money on fire if it feels like it. I also don't really understand this 8-9M/win number that they are throwing out there. Fangraphs has been using 4-5M/win which seems much more reasonable. Greinke is a 5 WAR pitcher and he'll probably get 20M/year. 8-9M/win suggests that Greinke should get paid 40-45M/yr this offseason.

I really don't understand the groupings. Who in their right mind is giving the entirely mediocre Saunders or the 35 yr old Dempster a 3 yr deal? Marcum might only get a 2 yr deal but it will be big whereas Guthrie and Blanton kind of suck. I see the Twins getting 3 pitchers this offseason a) The Twins sign a guy in the 3/30 range or they trade Span for a solid MLB'er (probably not Shields but Minor or Delgado would work) sign Baker c) a cheap guy on a 1-2 yr deal like Feldman or Villanueva.

Lindstrom is underrated and he could fall right into the Twins price range for bullpen help. Imo good bullpens have depth instead of one or two studs. Right now the Twins have neither but getting a guy like Lindstrom would add some nice 7th/8th inning depth.

Nobody said that. It's being pretty strongly implied here by the people suggesting that KC getting Santana for beans isn't all that big news. Acquiring a pitcher better than anything we have for merely salary is exactly what this team should be doing right now, let's not ignore that. Right now I'd be excited at anything that represents improvement in our pitching staff. it's like you think the offseason is over and the Twins are going to spend an unlimited amount of money. I think the Twins will sign one 10+M/yr pitcher, Baker and one pile of crap. I'm hoping that the Twins are aiming a little higher than Ervin Santana for that 10+M/yr pitcher but that's just me.

Sarcasm? What's worrisome is that if they sign Greinke they might not be in first place each of the next 3 years. What's worrisome is that even if they sign greinke they might be in last place...

Nobody said that.

I definitely don't have time for regular TV watching but I watch a similar lineup of crime dramas. Since I'm in Taiwan I mostly get those that are a year or so old but I haven't watched a lot of TV in the last 5+ years. Some of the shows are difficult since you really need to catch every episode like you say. White Collar and Suits (recommended) are two more recent shows (only 2-3 seasons) that I really like. I think Psych and NCIS are the only two shows (ever) that I've watched every episode of (until the latest seasons). Psych - I watched 5 straight seasons of with a Spanish speaking now ex-gf since it's easy to understand even if you don't understand every word. I've been hoping to watch more football (both NFL and NCAA) this year because I am really disconnected from it but I'm gone almost every weekend traveling.

I'm all for trading something small for Haren. He had some back issues last season which likely are the cause of this velocity decrease. If he comes back healthy I think he can be a good #2. If he has a good season then the Twins can at least give him a qualifying offer or try to work out an extension.

I'm not sure that I'm buying this Santana has been very good for the last 5 years business. His ERA has been bouncing between 3.50 and 5 and his XFIP has been bouncing between 4 and 4.50. He had the one great season in '08 (K:BB rates) and it looked like he was poised to become an ace. Then he hurt his elbow and has never come close to repeating those K and BB rates (velocity declined). He was a solid pickup but he really isn't that exciting.

This seems about right. I'm all about solid starters on 2-3 yr contracts. I think the prospect should be a guy like Benson though. Hendriks might bust again next year but this team can't afford to trade any arms.

$14-15 million on one year isn't bad at all. It's actually a good upside play. His peripherals are solid, despite declining velo, he's a prime candidate for a bounce back. Edit: This in regard to Haren. I wouldn't gamble on Santana's option, for the record. I like the idea of getting Haren but I don't really think that trading a good prospect is worth it for one year.

I'm not sure I see a special player in Polanco but I see an above average hitter and fielder which is pretty special to the Twins. I will wait on Walker. He did what he should have done as a college player in short season ball. At minimum he should have been a more advanced short season league (NYPL or NWL) but the Twins don't have a team there. he was an excellent pick though.

The only way that Hicks is opening day starter is if Span is traded and Revere gets injured in the spring. And even then they might find a way to keep Hicks in the minors. I don't really have a problem with it though since imo next season is a retooling season and there isn't any reason to allow Hicks to be a FA one year earlier or to get super 2 status. Hopefully he'll be up for good at midseason as part of the next youth movement. There is a really nice offensive core coming up in the next 2-3 years to go with Gibson, ?, ?, ? and ?. If they can find some pitching this could be an exciting team.

I don't think it would be difficult to find a spot... the problem with the japanese HS'ers is that they are subject to the int'l cap and they can pick whichever team is willing to spend almost all of their capped money (2.9M) on them. It's possible that a team needs to go over the cap and pay the luxury tax and/or forfeit a draft pick to sign Otani. Would Otani pick the Twins if there were several equivalent bids? I don't anything about Ryu but getting a 25 yr old interests me more than getting a guy like Dempster.

Chavez would be a solid bench player. I hate it when the team carries two futility IF'ers and a 3rd catcher. At least put a guy on the bench with a decent bat that can play 1B/3B. However I think Chavez would look elsewhere since the Twins are neither a contender nor will he get guaranteed playing time.

3M (money, not the company) isn't going to stand in the way signing a guy like Marcum or Haren.

Overall I like Sickel's list a lot but it seems like there is always somebody that surprises me a lot. This list is pretty close to how I would rank them although I would drop Harrison down below goodrum. I wasn't that impressed with his hitting in the appy league and i'll take the athleticism of Goodrum/Polanco. The hardest guys for me to rank is the 2012 RP'ers. Partly due knocking RP'ers down the list and partly due to limited pro data. I kind of think that the Twins went the converting RP'ers into starters route in rds 2/3 because the HS pitchers left were pretty lackluster. it might not work out but these guys have talented arms and the Twins should land a bullpen arm or two out of this group.

I'm guessing years 2 and 3 are vesting/team options. I might disagree with thrylos frequently but I believe he has sources and that this is indeed true. I'm kind of surprised that they didn't pull a Boras and get this contract announced from the stands during a WS game (ala ARod).