kab21

The big thing in favor of Montero is his age and also the fact that SafeCo is awful for RH'd power hitters.

However the scouting report that was posted brought up a couple of concerns which could cause his MiLB numbers (Steamer projections are based on them) to dip as he moves up to the majors. I would move him up over Santana and Kepler though. I think it says something for the system that Walker and Vargas are excluded. Same goes for Eades. Typically 2nd rd picks are near locks to be top 15 prospects in a farm system.

I would actually be more interested in Montero since he would still only be 24 next season. He hasn't done much/anything in the majors but he was an elite prospect that is still prospect age.

I think one thing needs to be made clear. Florimon shouldn't have a starting job and will be lucky to post an OPS >.600. I also think his popular comp (Iglesias) sees his numbers tumble this year. I really don't have a problem with Drew since the years and dollar amounts are right for the Twins. Drew comes with some risks and isn't a great player but that's why he will sign a reasonable deal. The Twins also completely lack in SS options. I'm surprised Brock is in favor of this considering his dislike of another former Red Sox lefthanded FA that would play half of his games at Target Field.

I like the Buchholz trade more than the Hamilton trade. Soler looks like a potential star while the others lack both certainty and upside. Good prospects but more like spare parts instead of building blocks.

Guys like Rajai Davis shouldn't sign multi-year contracts. that's like giving Nick Punto a multi-year contract. Luckily Davis signed in Detroit so we avoid this but if you read between the lines it looks like the Twins want a temporary CF starter.

The first draft (MiLB) is the good one for first year eligible players (last year's draft and int'l FA's). You need to cut your roster down to 40 minus the number of picks you intend to use. The 2nd draft (MLB) is mostly a waste of time despite username's defense of it. Every once in awhile a late bloomer is picked in the draft and becomes a valuable piece but most of the time it's as interesting as picking through the waiver wire. Basically most of the draft pool is old washed up vets (I will toss in Scutaro and Dejesus among others this year) and former top prospects that have sucked (I tried picking up Kyle Blanks and Mat Gamel several years in a row). You need to cut your roster down to 35 players with only 20 MLB players. I think the MLB criteria is the same as rookie eligibility but I can't remember if we tweaked it a little.

I'm not sure if Silva's halfway decent season really factors in. He had just spent 2 seasons with the Mariners as one of the worst starters in baseball and probably wasn't going to pitch at all for them regardless. They traded their problem for someone's else's problem and IIRC saved a little money doing it. Overall this was pretty much a non-event. The problems in Seattle had more to do with constructing teams that didn't play well in that ballpark and the players added didn't address major weaknesses. I remember them having horrific offenses and the FO was still adding no hit defensive wiz's like they were going to simply prevent the other team from scoring. And some in the media defended it.

Rios is 32 and wildly inconsistent so you aren't going to get anything considerable for him. I remember you telling me that I also needed to move (after my lucky ARod trade) Cuddyer and Buehrle a couple of years ago. 30 something average players basically have the lowest trade value in this league. I might try to pick up 1-2 more after the MLB cutdown draft. Right now I'm still stuck cutting 2 solid MLB'ers to make it to 20 MLB'ers.

That's possible (Sano or Buxton need to be included) but several people (most) have specifically said that they wouldn't deal Meyer+ for Price. That's the part that is just silly. Additionally the comparisons to the Myers/Shields trade isn't very good. Price is better, younger and an extension would be a requirement. The extension part changes the WAR math considerably.

This all depends on how fast you think Price will decline. I think he has 4-5 really good seasons left. And I'm talking about at least near ace (or ace) level seasons. At the point he declines Mauer's elite time will be over and Sano/Buxton will be halfway through their arb years. It's risky but the perfect storm for the Twins is to pair up Sano/Buxton with Mauer (as a near elite player) and make a strong push. 2014 is going to be a year where 80 wins is likely even with Price but 2015/2016 could be the time that the Twins are going for 90+ wins. It will take some luck (like Sano and/or Buxton hitting their potential) but Price will still be in his prime.

I wouldn't touch Kemp at any price right now. Certainly not including good prospects for him. Labrum surgery has screwed up guys for years or they never returned to the same level. And microfracture surgery has an even worse track record. I hope he's not another Sizemore but I wouldn't want his contract on the Twins even if it was subsidized by 50M.

Except it is inaccurate. The Twins have an entire army of Brian Doziers coming up from the minors. It's likely that half of the starting lineup is pre arb or in their cheap arb years for the foreseeable future. The same goes for the bullpen. It's almost like the situation where JP suggested that Price makes sense. Additionally the Twins aren't capped at 100M. They have already exceeded that and that was before a bunch of new money flowed into the game. The other consideration is how do you go about building a championship team. One of the key components to a championship contender is having 1 (or even 2) aces. There are basically 2 ways to acquire an ace. One is to develop them and just cross your fingers hoping that they turn out and the other to trade for or sign a big name FA. Right now I'm glad the Twins have at least found some great minor league arms with that type of potential but I'm more the type that likes an almost sure thing like Price. Meyer looks great but I have thought that about so many pitching prospects (I'm a fanatical minors follower) And many of those busted or took 2-4 years to figure it out. Here was an out of the box idea I threw out years ago (2010 offseason) on the BYTO board. there of course was 0% chance of the front office pursuing it. Halladay was on the block with one year left and the Twins had what looked like a strong team. I proposed a Hicks/Gibson (would have needed to be a PTBNL) for Halladay trade. Halladay was of course traded that offseason to the Phillies and signed an extension. He also was ridiculously valuable the first two years (14 WAR combined) before his shoulder was wrecked. Overwhelming the board was against it because Gibson and Hicks were so valuable as cost controlled prospects. 4 years later they haven't done anything yet. Some prospects hit and some bust but this board's cup is violently spilling over with prospect optimism right now. Being unwilling to trade a good but not elite pitching prospect for one of the top pitchers in the game is just silly provided that the Twins can afford a mega extension (they can easily) and Price is willing to sign that extension.

I think eventually he would be a DH after Willy is gone but I think it's important for a team to have a couple solid veteran hitters on a team filled with youngsters.

How many times did we have to put up with Jack Z is a genius being repeated in the media? I remember shaking my head at some of those moves.

Gardner doesn't really matter though. I don't see the Yankees doing that trade and he is supposedly a FA next season. He's a good player and immensely more valuable than Presley but not a good target. Brown would be a fine target but the Twins would actually have to give up something good rather than the collection of unwanted parts proposed. I like Corey Hart as a veteran OF'er to replace Willy's bat in the middle of the lineup. Playing time is a little crowded until someone gets injured or traded but Willy and Doumit are very unlikely to be resigned if they even make it past the trade deadline. This could leave Hart, Buxton, Hicks and Arcia as the opening day 2015 lineup (including DH). That might block someone but only if everyone of those rookies are successes (odds against).

okay. Presley averages 1 WAR every 162 games. Gardner averages 4.5 WAR every 162 games. In my book this isn't even close.

I hope Meyer earning 500K is a better value than nearly every elite pitcher. If he isn't then he is a massive failure. But at some point the money has to be spent. It's much better to have spent that 20+M on one elite player than 2 Nolasco's. Of course I don't think Tampa would accept a trade for Meyer/Rosario and there is no chance that the Twins would propose something like this.

I don't screw around when trading. I now have opened up quite a bit of roster space also and I have a borderline dominant offense.

In typical fashion I traded anything that resembled a prospect for Stanton. Hopefully he bounces back (OR GETS TRADED!).

Please go back and read Thrylos's statement. He simply said that he thought Meyer would outperform Price. That is way too optimistic of Meyer. I really like Meyer (really, really like him) but he's not even a top 10 pitching prospect right now. People need to stop projecting him as a can't miss ace. Can't miss aces frequently miss also. The other thing is that real aces simply don't hit FA that often. You can spend tons of money on several Garza, Bailey, Ervin Santana, C.J. Wilson or Nolasco types but they aren't true aces. Every once in awhile a Greinke comes along and he is really good but he also signed for huge money.

People are way too optimistic about Meyer if they think he IS going to match Price for a 6 yr period. With an extension in place I would have no problem trading Meyer and Rosario for Price. Meyer might be great but his injury history and control issues could result in him being one of many pitching prospects that just don't make it in the MLB. It's funny but some people were upset because span was traded for a MiLB'er a couple of years away and wanted more immediate help. It would be extraordinarily awesome to flip Meyer a year later for a no doubt ace (very rare in the MLB). Sano or Buxton are a little bit of a different story. I would hang on to these hitters because they are hitters and less likely to completely flop like a pitching prospect.

OPS+ is a poor one number analysis. Presley has a .300 career OBP while Gardner has a .350 OBP with K and BB rates that suggest long term success. Gardner is a far better defender and has disruptive speed on the bases. the result is that Presley is a solid 4th OF'er while Gardner is incredibly valuable. It really isn't even close. I would instantly trade for Gardner but the Twins don't have the pieces. The only thing that could interest the Yankees is Dozier because they need 2B/3B and SP. But Dozier currently isn't nearly as valuable as Gardner although if he repeats last season it would be closer.

Arcia is better than LoMo but you can hide one crappy defender in the OF (esp w/ buxton coming up) but currently the team also has Willy and Doumit (and Parmelee) and they will play as long as they are on the team.

You can delete 'again'...