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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    Agreed. Berrios is better than Milone right now. My point is that Meyer is better than Berrios right now. Here are the numbers of 2015 as a starter only vs 2014 for Meyer Here are Meyer's 2014 and 2015 (as a starter) numbers: 2015 3.66 FIP, 1.91 WHIP, .??? BABIP (????nWHIP), 9.4 K/9, 5.4 BB/9 2014 3.66 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, .321 BABIP (1.24 nWHIP), 10.6 K/9, 4.4 BB/9 Cannot calculate BABIP quickly to calculate normalized WHIP, but they are pretty darn close; I suspect that like his season numbers, WHIP is artificially driven high because of BABIP. So if 2015 was a "disaster", 2014 should be one too The Twins pulled the trigger to quickly on that one and moved him to the pen. Mechanical problem that the pitching coach could not fix and he got the boot (they should have pulled that trigger faster, mid-season.) Check Berrios' walks this season, btw
  2. Thrylos
    FTFY
  3. Thrylos
    Berrios have only 15 starts at AAA. Half a season. Meyer has 2+ seasons there. Meyer's last season was a lot like Meyer's 2014, after which he was ranked as better prospect than Berrios by pretty much everyone including BA, and he was ranked as having the organization's best fastball and curveball (same link; got to love the "experts" who came out of the woodwork after last season and saying that he has to develop "a third pitch" - he has a slider and a two-seamer in addition) Here are Meyer's 2014 and 2015 numbers: 2015 3.28 FIP, 1.62 WHIP, .372 BABIP (1.26 nWHIP), 9.8 K/9, 4.7 BB/9 2014 3.66 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, .321 BABIP (1.24 nWHIP), 10.6 K/9, 4.4 BB/9 Pretty darn close, other than a BABIP-driven WHIP, which when normalized for league average BABIP, is practically identical in the 2 seasons. so if Meyer's 2015 was a "debacle", his 2014 was also a "debacle", but I bet you will not find many "experts" who would support that...
  4. Thrylos
    This is an example of doing what you said you should not do Nolasco and Hughes are the Twins best starters this season. Nolasco has 2.64 FIP & 0.984 WHIP; Hughes 2.92 & 1.145. Last season Duffey had 3.24 FIP and 1.310 WHIP with the Twins. In other words Duffey's best last season is worse than what these guys are doing right now. Getting him up there instead of those 2 will hurt the team In addition to Milone (who stinks) Gibson is having a pretty nasty start of the season. Duffey is Rochester's 4th best maybe starter at this point. Starters ranking there: Meyer 1.80 FIP, 0.87 WHIP Berrios 2.71 FIP, 0.94 WHIP Dean 3.58 FIP, 1.06 WHIP Duffey 2.98 FIP, 1.40 WHIP So there is no way that Duffey should be coming up north as a starter any time soon. Furthermore, other than Milone, the rotation has not been an issue with the Twins this season. They have bigger fish to fry, like finding a closer and at least another arm better than Jepsen, if they want to compete.
  5. Thrylos
    Berrios? Duffey? Nah. Last time I checked, there is a guy who is pitching better than both, any way you cut it, in Rochester, and he has much higher upside than both. Alex Meyer should be in the Twins' rotation way before Berrios or Duffey. Milone needs to go and the already pretty mediocre at best Twins' pen will not improve with someone like him. Plenty of other arms to do mop up duty.
  6. Thrylos
    My take is the same that it was this off-season: For the Twins to compete, they need at least 2 arms better than Perkins and Jepsen. Chargois and Burdi could be them. I'd take Chargois over Fien right now. 5 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 9 K should be rewarded. Fien has an option. Matter of fact, I trust Chargois more than I trust Jepsen. Melotakis should not be down for long either. He is pitching way better than his .700some BABIP-inflated stats suggest. The other thing is bad use of pitchers. Molitor should write on a blackboard 1000 times: Do not use O'Rourke against RHBs. Doing so is purely inane. Is this the bullpen of a contender? No way. But at this point the Twins are not contenders but have the worst record in baseball. No wonder Ryan is at Rochester trying to get help ASAP
  7. Thrylos
    Comparing modern era numbers with those of the 20s makes absolutely no sense. In 1927 the league average slash line was .292/.354/.411 whereas in 2015 was .254/.317/.405. I just find it hard to believe that they both have the same OPS+ with such different baselines. Or likely, OPS+ fails when comparing eons apart Yes, Mauer was a better hitter in his time than Cochrane was in his...
  8. Thrylos
    Not sure where the hey that myth came about, but he is not. Kelly won 1,140 games, Gardenhire 1,068. Billy Martin ended up with 1,253 (of course not all Twins) and Bucky Harris (Senators) with 2,158. Any way you count it, he was not that
  9. Thrylos
    Let me count the ways: - The Twins finally showed that they can hold someone accountable for a team that went 99+96+96+92, by firing him. However, they did not fire him apparently, they just gave him a year of a paid sabbatical before they welcomed him back. (It was all Jerry's and Stelly's and Bobby's fault...) - The Twins have won a single post-season series since November of 1991, even though in several occasions (like the season they had both the MVP and the CY winner) were the favorites, and the number one reason for this, this millennium, was Ron Gardenhire. - Gardenhire's attitude for a while was that of accepting losing, tossing his arms over the dugout railing and practically allowing his team to quit on him. Not something you want to install in the minor leaguers or something that you want to allow to propagate in the organization - Gardenhire was the master of favoritism of his buddies and of alienation of players he did not like (most of them college educated and smart). Not something you want to propagate in the organization or reward. - Proven clueless about player evaluation, hating on Garza/Lohse/Gomez/Hardy. On the record about wanting more speed and Nishioka over Hardy and nothing to do with Gomez. On the record about the "proven closer" situation. - Inability to communicate with Latinos. Multiple quotes of the kind "I don't know what he is talking about"; and feeling proud of it, like the 22 year old kid should be the one that bears the burden of learning English. - this team is way inbred. They need some new outside thinking sooner than later, otherwise they will perish. Hiring Gardy is the epitome of inbredness ....
  10. Thrylos
    I think that the Twins should do what is better for the Twins a season that they are competing. It will be good for Dozier and Escobar to take some breathers and Nunez will not be hot all the time. As he cools off, Escobar can play third and Polanco short. Polanco's bat is better than those three's...
  11. Thrylos
    He is playing at a .385 BABIP. He finished 2013 with a .383 BABIP and 2009 with a .373, but his average has been around .340, so he will likely regress to this. Still, regression and all, he is on the pace for a high .800s low .900s OPS. A bright point for this team that without him would had been 6 games under .500 now or something Bruno should be handing out Mauer sunglasses left and right...
  12. Thrylos
    Nope. This is like saying that Jason Marquis is better than Sidney Ponson...
  13. Thrylos
    Typical Ryan dumpster diving half baked move that means nothing for the Twins, other than blocking youth. They will move Perkins to the 60-day DL for the spot.
  14. Thrylos
    Am I the only one who thinks that the Twins are better with Perkins on the DL and not "closing" games for them?
  15. Thrylos
    I'd try May before Jepsen and even call JT Chargois before Jepsen if May fails. Perkins should be the 7th inning guy, unless his FB gets to 94-95 and his SL to 84-85
  16. Thrylos
    Re Hunter: Among 18 RFs with qualifying PAs, he was: 7th UZR, 14th DRS, 7th Fangraphs Def, 14th Plus/Minus, 14th FP, 17th RZR, 14th Out of zone plays, So, depending on how you are counting...
  17. Thrylos
    Look at his statistics at either fangraphs or baseball-reference. They are all about average. The old school ones like fielding percentage and range factor have them way above average. SSS, but that cuts both ways.
  18. Thrylos
    The problems I have with this are: a. there is an assumption that Sano is a bad right fielder, while all numbers indicate that he is at least league average (but it is small sample size any way you cut it) b. there is an assumption that a 22 year old player will not get better in a position the more he plays the position, which is plain wrong. I'd wait half season at least before I jump into quick conclusions. Regardless, Ryan had better choices than to play Sano at RF. Punto retired and Gardenhire is thankfully gone. Who cares about those two in 2016...
  19. Thrylos
    So one Buxton (70) is worth 8 Doziers or Rosarios (55) ? No way I think that it is fine the way it is. Multipliers just skew it way on one side and, since we are talking about prospects, those 70s and 65s some times fail (eg. Shawn Abner, Bryan Bullington, Matt Bush, Brien Taylor; all those guys were up there...)
  20. Thrylos
    So the though there is that a "fix" that Perkins introduced in the second half of last season, a period of 7.32 ERA, 6.69 FIP, 1.88 WHIP, and .356/.394/.674 opponent slash line, would actually help him in 2016? Also, for some reason the data stop at Aug 17, covering 17 games with the "new and improved" slider, while Perkins appeared in 12 more in August, September, and October. What does the data show about that slider in those games? Was it better or worse? Not sure why they were omitted from the story...
  21. Thrylos
    Really cool stuff. I think that age will help a lot. Also breaking down the systems into draft vs IFA will also help because it will show that you don't have to "tank" to build a top minor league system; you can do it by focusing on IFAs and mid to late 1st round draft picks, like the Dodgers who never tanked (and it is the only top third team in this ranking not to do so.) This would also single out perennially bad drafting teams like the Twins...
  22. Thrylos
    The fish tacos look good
  23. Thrylos
    Agreed on Melotakis. Here are 3 picks (two under the radar) Alex Meyer - in the Twins' Rotation before call ups. Alex Wimmers & JT Chargois - in the Twins' pen before call ups. That Chattanooga pen will be phenomenal this season.
  24. Thrylos
    There is no way that a loss, any loss, can be good for the team you are rooting for. Period.
  25. Thrylos
    The Twins' single season strikeout record was set last season by Dozier (148). Sano for sure will break it, but it seams that Buxton might have more Ks than Sano this season.
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