Thrylos

About time. Both of those guys were awful in Spring Training. Unwatchably awful. I just wish the Twins quit taking chances on 36-37 year olds and promote kids. Even kids who maxed at Fort Myers last season will be better than these 2.

Alright. Experiment: - Here is $30 M. (and take an extra $10 for Correia, Pelfrey, Wood and Butera.) That's $40 M. How would you spend it to make these Twins win 90 games and have a shot at the post-season.

Agree about waiting for him to get better defensively in the hot corner, but that strikeout thing, which is mentioned way too often, is an exaggeration. Check this out. Here are the Ks and BBs of the following Twins' power hitters last season. Nobody is complaining that they strike out much: Willingham 76 BB 141 K Morneau 49 BB 102 K Doumit 29 BB 98 K And here is Sano's. As you can see he has a better BB:K ratio that all 3 Sano: 80 BB 144 K So, if someone is complaining about Sano's Ks he/she should be complaining about Willingham's and Morneau's and Doumit's....

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch --- I think that it is pretty safe to say that nobody expects the Minnesota Twins to be close to contending in 2013. As a matter of fact, a lot of fans and experts would find the new Accuscore predictions that were released today and show the 2013 Twins with a predicted record of 72-90, optimistic. I usually do not try to predict the way the Twins will finish with an analysis. The last time I did it was in the aftermath of the Santana trade and before the 2008 season, when the sky was supposedly falling (you can find that analysis in parts: Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3.) My quite unorthodox calculations predicted the team to have an 89-73 record, while everyone was predicting a sub .500 record. That season, as in this season, the major breaking point is Starting Pitching. When I was asked before Spring Training by Cardinal70.com in their playing pepper series, my prediction (gut feeling) was that the Twins will compile an 86-76 record and will be competitive in 2013. Additionally, I recently noted the good energy that I saw this team have in Fort Myers, which makes me optimistic for 2013. Add to this, this excellent analysis by Phil Macky at ESPN 1500 based on individual projected performances that project the Twins to win 80 games in 2013, and it was about time to look at the possibilities formally. I looked at it in 2 different ways and this post is part one, looking at the possibilities of the new starting rotation. The second way will be a WAR- and RAR-based analysis that will be presented some time this weekend or so, otherwise this post will be a monster. This analysis is pretty unorthodox but pretty close to what I did before the 2008 season. I am looking at the differences of the Twins' rotation in 2013 vs the Twins' rotation in 2012 (Starting pitching is the driver of the Twins' performance folks... They led the AL Central in position player WAR by a lot, 25% ahead of the second team, in 2012.) I am looking at the following two measures for each starting pitcher in 2012: Bill James' Game Score (which is what I used to tabulate my Spring Training Dashboards, and use the same convensions for above average, below average and average as there; explanation is here) Earned runs a pitcher allowed in each game Then I tabulate the number games that each pitcher had game scores better than, worse than or average; and the number of games that each pitcher allowed 2 runs or less, 3 to 4 runs and 5 runs or more. (Note: The Twins scored about 4.3 runs a game, so =< 2 runs is high probability or win and 3-4 runs good probability for a win.) The 2012 Twins' starters used for the calculations are Pavano, Blackburn, Liriano and Marquis For the 2013 Twins' startes I used the 2012 numbers for Correia and Worley and the 2011 for Pelfrey and Harden I assume that the rest of the rotation in 2013 (Diamond, De Vries, Deduno etc) will perform as in 2012. Here are the results by pitcher: http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8237/8598075986_d52167df36.jpg It is obvious that the 2013 rotation had many better games in 2012 and would have kept the Twins competitive in most of their games (4 runs or less) than the 2012 rotation. But how much? The 2013 rotation had above average game scores 48.3% of the time vs 23% for the 2012 rotation The 2013 rotation allowed less than 2 runs in 42.7% of games vs 26% for the 2012 rotation The 2013 rotation allowed less than 2 runs in 82.2% of games vs 61.2% for the 2012 rotation What does this mean in wins for the 2013 Twins? In 2012 the Twins starting pitchers won 41 and lost 72 games Extrapolating based on above average game scores the 2013 rotation will win an additional 23 games for a total of 89 wins based on less than 2 runs allowed 2013 rotation will win an additional 26 games for a total of 92 wins based on less than 4 runs allowed 2013 rotation will win an additional 15 games for a total of 81 wins These 3 average to 87 wins, giving the 2013 Twins a projected 87-79 record. So here you have it. These Twins can compete in 2013. http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8233/8598008516_d1b239f737_c.jpg Next: WAR and RAR-based analysis

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch --- I think that it is pretty safe to say that nobody expects the Minnesota Twins to be close to contending in 2013. As a matter of fact, a lot of fans and experts would find the new Accuscore predictions that were released today and show the 2013 Twins with a predicted record of 72-90, optimistic. I usually do not try to predict the way the Twins will finish with an analysis. The last time I did it was in the aftermath of the Santana trade and before the 2008 season, when the sky was supposedly falling (you can find that analysis in parts: Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3.) My quite unorthodox calculations predicted the team to have an 89-73 record, while everyone was predicting a sub .500 record. That season, as in this season, the major breaking point is Starting Pitching. When I was asked before Spring Training by Cardinal70.com in their playing pepper series, my prediction (gut feeling) was that the Twins will compile an 86-76 record and will be competitive in 2013. Additionally, I recently noted the good energy that I saw this team have in Fort Myers, which makes me optimistic for 2013. Add to this, this excellent analysis by Phil Macky at ESPN 1500 based on individual projected performances that project the Twins to win 80 games in 2013, and it was about time to look at the possibilities formally. I looked at it in 2 different ways and this post is part one, looking at the possibilities of the new starting rotation. The second way will be a WAR- and RAR-based analysis that will be presented some time this weekend or so, otherwise this post will be a monster. This analysis is pretty unorthodox but pretty close to what I did before the 2008 season. I am looking at the differences of the Twins' rotation in 2013 vs the Twins' rotation in 2012 (Starting pitching is the driver of the Twins' performance folks... They led the AL Central in position player WAR by a lot, 25% ahead of the second team, in 2012.) I am looking at the following two measures for each starting pitcher in 2012: Bill James' Game Score (which is what I used to tabulate my Spring Training Dashboards, and use the same convensions for above average, below average and average as there; explanation is here) Earned runs a pitcher allowed in each game Then I tabulate the number games that each pitcher had game scores better than, worse than or average; and the number of games that each pitcher allowed 2 runs or less, 3 to 4 runs and 5 runs or more. (Note: The Twins scored about 4.3 runs a game, so =< 2 runs is high probability or win and 3-4 runs good probability for a win.) The 2012 Twins' starters used for the calculations are Pavano, Blackburn, Liriano and Marquis For the 2013 Twins' startes I used the 2012 numbers for Correia and Worley and the 2011 for Pelfrey and Harden I assume that the rest of the rotation in 2013 (Diamond, De Vries, Deduno etc) will perform as in 2012. Here are the results by pitcher: http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8237/8598075986_d52167df36.jpg It is obvious that the 2013 rotation had many better games in 2012 and would have kept the Twins competitive in most of their games (4 runs or less) than the 2012 rotation. But how much? The 2013 rotation had above average game scores 48.3% of the time vs 23% for the 2012 rotation The 2013 rotation allowed less than 2 runs in 42.7% of games vs 26% for the 2012 rotation The 2013 rotation allowed less than 2 runs in 82.2% of games vs 61.2% for the 2012 rotation What does this mean in wins for the 2013 Twins? In 2012 the Twins starting pitchers won 41 and lost 72 games Extrapolating based on above average game scores the 2013 rotation will win an additional 23 games for a total of 89 wins based on less than 2 runs allowed 2013 rotation will win an additional 26 games for a total of 92 wins based on less than 4 runs allowed 2013 rotation will win an additional 15 games for a total of 81 wins These 3 average to 87 wins, giving the 2013 Twins a projected 87-79 record. So here you have it. These Twins can compete in 2013. http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8233/8598008516_d1b239f737_c.jpg Next: WAR and RAR-based analysis

I don't think that Parmelee would have anything to do on whether they trade Morneau at all. At best he would keep the first bag warm for Vargas or Sano. Now if the Twins were to keep Morneau for a couple more years to bridge the gap to those instead of Parmelee, I would have no issues with it; on the other hand, I can see a Mauer/Parmelee/someone else split at first base working fine as a place holder as well and be about $10-13 mil a season less expensive.

Interesting when the whole is better than the sum of its parts (and this is true about the 2012 Twins...) Here are the 2012 AL Central team rankings based on position player aggregate WAR. I have it broken down by offensive WAR (hitters) and defensive WAR (fielders). Clearly the Twins were the cream of the crop (by far) as far as position players went last season in the division. If you discount fielding, their bats were second best to the Indians and they do rank much higher than you have them here, and since there were not many changes from 2012, I still see them being on the top of the division as far as position players go... Twins oWAR 19.7 dWAR 2.6 WAR 22.1 White Sox oWAR 16.6 dWAR -0.7 WAR 16.0 Royals oWAR 15.5 dWAR 0.3 WAR 15.1 Indians oWAR 20.4 dWAR -5.2 WAR 15.0 Tigers oWAR 19.2 dWAR -4.8 WAR 14.6 (B-R not fangraphs or BP data)

Probably totally in the minority here, but I think that Ryan actually spent too much this season... I'd rather have him do a full rebuild and trade 30+ year old veterans (Morneau, Willingham, Carroll, Doumit, Burton - that's a good $25M there) for prospects, instead of signing Correia, Wood and Pelfrey and paying Butera $700K to play in Rochester (that's another $10 M there.) So I wish he spent $35M less this season...

Ramirez raked the whole Spring. Interesting about the balls. Usually in the back fields they have the "official minor league baseball" balls with no league affiliation. I suspect that there are a lot of balls in those buckets during drills and sometimes they get mixed. And if you are going there tomorrow, have a peak up between the fence and the roof of the south side bleachers on Field #3; there was an MLB ball stuck there the other day and I bet it still is

Based on prospects and "overall minor league talent". Results here. (free article.) The Twins are ranked a disappointing 10th. Methodology not published other than a statement saying that "the rankings are a product of BA’s editors."

by Forbes (as well as their perception of the franchise value). Details here. 20/30 Franchise value (whatever) Revenue 2012: $214M Operating Income 2012: $10.8 M (not sure if that already subtracts MLB and MiLB FO & operations costs or not. If it does it is equivalent to "profit".) Pretty impressive numbers for an "off" year methinks.

Getting Pinto (who probably is the top Twins' catching prospect right now) on waivers is silly Caleb Thielbar has not proven that he can beat AAA hitters as a 25 year old. He is the only of the bunch to go. Robertson made the 25-man roster so it is a moot point. I still feel that the Twins will trade someone to open a spot, likely/hopefully Butera. Wood on 60 day might make sense. Swarzak might even make more sense (DL time starts from the beginning of ST, so this season he needs to sit out 2-3 more weeks after the opening day - long ST) so the Twins postpone the decision...

Hope not. He does not even belong to the Hall of Very Good. Vizquel: 40.5 career WAR (includes defense) 82 career OPS+ Ozzie Smith: 73 career WAR 87 career OPS+ 2 non-HOF SSs Alan Trammell: 67.1 career WAR 110 career OPS+ Noarm (sic) Garciaparra 42 career WAR 124 career OPS+ Cannot put Vizquel in and leave these 2 out (and a few more as well...)

I'd have no problem if they signed him to a MiLB contract and release some of the 30something MiLB IFs they signed this off-season

Phil Mackey has an interesting analysis over at ESPN 1500 and he is looking at about 80 wins based on RS and RA using sums of individual players' projections. I started cranking some numbers differently looking in a few other things including sums of games with =< 2 runs allowed in 2012 for Pavano+Marquis+Liriano+Blackburn vs Worley+Correia+Pelfrey+Harden (the last 2 in 2011) and some RAR- and WAR- based stuff and I am probably more optimistic that Phil at this point. Before Spring training started I was thinking potentially 86 wins or so, now I think that potentially even a couple more. Harden's health will be what makes and breaks this club. Another thing one needs to look at is how many different SS/2B combinations were used last season.... the more the worse in things like turning double plays, getting forced outs at second, covering second base etc. Looks that there is a commitment for Florimon and Dozier. If they stick with them and they perform, the infield D will be much better than 2012.

Rewind to 2006 when the Twins had both the Cy Young award winner and the MVP award winner, the team led the league in Batting average, Pitcher K's and BBs, had the second best league ERA and were picked by the "experts" of ESPN before the post-season started to win it all in the post-season. And then three and out happened (again) against the Athletics...

Here are my thoughts on this: I am glad that Ryan did not spend that stack of cash the way he is used to, ie: - Signing pitchers like Correia (and Capps) to way above market contracts - bottom feeding at the equivalent of the MLB thrift stores and being a spend thrift, spending his cash in free agent players like Batista, Ponson, RonDL, Jesse Orosco etc? - Sign over the hill Minnesota-born or bred star players (but I am not sure that there are many of those left any more.) I just don't see a way for Ryan to have spent $40 million and the result would have made the 2013 Twins WS contenders, in other words. So I am glad he did not spent it.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch --- I arrived North a tad too late from Fort Myers last night, so I did not quite had time to compile my last Spring Training report, so here it goes: Mainly a drills day over at the Minor League fields yesterday with no games or scrimmages schedules. Interesting to see Ray Olmedo, who was cut earlier in the morning participate in drills with the position players who will likely stay at Fort Myers for extended spring training and get assigned to the Rookie leagues. Most of them are young Latin American players and I suspect that Ray was helping with the translation. Back at Hammond Stadium Mike Pelfrey pitched a very good game (the only earned run should had been unearned because Morneau should have been charged with an error when misplayed what would have been the third out of the inning.) When I look at the return of someone from injury I look at 2 things: Velocity of fastball and command of the breaking ball. And Pelfrey had them both. His fastball hit 94 mph (at Hammond so subtract a couple) and he had excellent command of his high 70s curve. He changed speeds effectively, mixed and matched pitches well and provided a good glimpse of why he was considered a top of the rotation prospect for a long time. Good to see him back and I am certain that he will help the Twins this season. The only roster battle left is one for two pen spots among three relievers (who may all make it if Liam Hendriks' injured hand proves to be worse than it seems) who severely underperformed and underwhelmed this spring training and all have 40 man roster spots: Alex Burnett, Casey Fien and Trevor Robertson. Robertson (who admittedly has been unlucky this Spring because the ball seemed to bounce the wrong way every time he pitched) had a very sub-par outing yesterday. The main problems were that his fastball velocity was 85-88, with the fast Hammond Stadium radar, that made it flat and hittable and he could not command his breaking ball. As I mentioned above regarding Pelfrey, those 2 things are red flags for me as far as potential injury is concerned. On the other hand, Robertson yesterday said the he felt alright. We shall see. Regardless, with Anthony Swarzak and Tim Wood returning from injuries in a couple weeks, the two relievers who will make the squad will be under the microscope. Ecstatic to see Wilkin Ramirez making the club. He has been the most consistent Twins' player with the bat this Spring and his defense was occasionally impressive (including a diving catch today against Baltimore.) He will provide a RH bat with some pop off the bench and potentially a platoon partner for Chris Parmelee at RF. Ramirez is not on the 40-man roster so a transaction needs to take place to open a spot for him. This could be a trade involving Drew Butera, Jamey Carroll (who is practically unnecessary now with the emergence of Eduardo Escobar) or the removal from the 40-man roster of the reliever who loses the battle for the last pen spot or Caleb Thielbar or BJ Hermsen. One very hopeful observation for the coming season (and I actually asked others who agreed with me so it is not just me) : The overall energy of the team this Spring seems to be much better that it was last Spring. The mood seems to be much lighter. Players were pretty loose around the batting cages when waiting for others to bat or when were catching the ball at the OF during batting practice, or at the dugout. Even Gardenhire who last Spring was fairly grouchy was cracking jokes and was engaged in conversations with fans. This makes me very hopeful for this set of Twins as far as this season goes. Just a feeling I cannot describe, but it is pretty much there. Four games are left now, including the last 3 with the Red Sox in Fort Myers. Byron Buxton's guest star appearance will be the talk of the day tomorrow, while the next order of business will be the appointing of the opening day starter. As far as I am concerned I think that it will be either Vance Worley or Kevin Correia depending on their next appearance (or Worley's next appearance) so we will know the earliest tomorrow. Another Spring comes to the end and another season is coming to be. Let's hope it is better than the last one and the Twins sweep Detroit in the first series to make a strong statement as far as the division is concerned.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch --- I arrived North a tad too late from Fort Myers last night, so I did not quite had time to compile my last Spring Training report, so here it goes: Mainly a drills day over at the Minor League fields yesterday with no games or scrimmages schedules. Interesting to see Ray Olmedo, who was cut earlier in the morning participate in drills with the position players who will likely stay at Fort Myers for extended spring training and get assigned to the Rookie leagues. Most of them are young Latin American players and I suspect that Ray was helping with the translation. Back at Hammond Stadium Mike Pelfrey pitched a very good game (the only earned run should had been unearned because Morneau should have been charged with an error when misplayed what would have been the third out of the inning.) When I look at the return of someone from injury I look at 2 things: Velocity of fastball and command of the breaking ball. And Pelfrey had them both. His fastball hit 94 mph (at Hammond so subtract a couple) and he had excellent command of his high 70s curve. He changed speeds effectively, mixed and matched pitches well and provided a good glimpse of why he was considered a top of the rotation prospect for a long time. Good to see him back and I am certain that he will help the Twins this season. The only roster battle left is one for two pen spots among three relievers (who may all make it if Liam Hendriks' injured hand proves to be worse than it seems) who severely underperformed and underwhelmed this spring training and all have 40 man roster spots: Alex Burnett, Casey Fien and Trevor Robertson. Robertson (who admittedly has been unlucky this Spring because the ball seemed to bounce the wrong way every time he pitched) had a very sub-par outing yesterday. The main problems were that his fastball velocity was 85-88, with the fast Hammond Stadium radar, that made it flat and hittable and he could not command his breaking ball. As I mentioned above regarding Pelfrey, those 2 things are red flags for me as far as potential injury is concerned. On the other hand, Robertson yesterday said the he felt alright. We shall see. Regardless, with Anthony Swarzak and Tim Wood returning from injuries in a couple weeks, the two relievers who will make the squad will be under the microscope. Ecstatic to see Wilkin Ramirez making the club. He has been the most consistent Twins' player with the bat this Spring and his defense was occasionally impressive (including a diving catch today against Baltimore.) He will provide a RH bat with some pop off the bench and potentially a platoon partner for Chris Parmelee at RF. Ramirez is not on the 40-man roster so a transaction needs to take place to open a spot for him. This could be a trade involving Drew Butera, Jamey Carroll (who is practically unnecessary now with the emergence of Eduardo Escobar) or the removal from the 40-man roster of the reliever who loses the battle for the last pen spot or Caleb Thielbar or BJ Hermsen. One very hopeful observation for the coming season (and I actually asked others who agreed with me so it is not just me) : The overall energy of the team this Spring seems to be much better that it was last Spring. The mood seems to be much lighter. Players were pretty loose around the batting cages when waiting for others to bat or when were catching the ball at the OF during batting practice, or at the dugout. Even Gardenhire who last Spring was fairly grouchy was cracking jokes and was engaged in conversations with fans. This makes me very hopeful for this set of Twins as far as this season goes. Just a feeling I cannot describe, but it is pretty much there. Four games are left now, including the last 3 with the Red Sox in Fort Myers. Byron Buxton's guest star appearance will be the talk of the day tomorrow, while the next order of business will be the appointing of the opening day starter. As far as I am concerned I think that it will be either Vance Worley or Kevin Correia depending on their next appearance (or Worley's next appearance) so we will know the earliest tomorrow. Another Spring comes to the end and another season is coming to be. Let's hope it is better than the last one and the Twins sweep Detroit in the first series to make a strong statement as far as the division is concerned.

yes /kinda and yes. He only had one ball in play and that resulted in a 3-1 (1B to P) ground out by Mejia (on a 0-2 count) Also he had only one called ball. Everything else was either a called strike, a swinging strike and that one ball in play. And most Ks were of the 3 pitch variety.

Point is that Rosenthal does not know the Twins and cannot form an opinion based on hearsay. Brought the last decade as a measuring stick of the Twins' games Rosenthal watched; not of Gardenhire's and the Twins' limited success during that time.

Wonder how many Twins games Rosenthal watched in full the last couple seasons? Two? Three? The last decade? Twenty? Twenty five? He is better suited to opine about matters he has intimate knowledge of and not hearsay knowledge, like his Yankees and Red Sox and such. Want to see him write a diatribe about why Valentine should have not been fired as well (while his Red Sox compiled a better record than Gardenhire's Twins last season.)

If you look at his fielding percentage at 3B, no wonder that experiment ended (40 errors in 141 games...) Sanudo as a 20 year old in 36 innings struck out 33 and walked a grand total of 2 last season. Guess those guys are a dime a dozen and it is alright to trade them for a 24 year old with .275 OBP in A ball.

I think that something might be up with Robertson. Today's outing was pretty bad as well and his velocity is very low at this point. His FB was at 86-88 (Hammond Stadium radar, so read 85ish) and very flat and very hittable. His breaking ball was better and got some swings and misses but he had issues commanding in. Low FB velocity and lack of command on the curve unfortunately sounds like an injury situation to me. Regardless, he is not producing at this point... Also (and I will write more about it in a bit) based on those 2 points (FB velocity and breaking ball command,) from what I saw in the game today Pelfrey seems healthy. His FB hit 94 (so really 91-92) and he had excellent command of his curve... Definitely a piece of good news from today...

How about another one: Jason Kubel career OPS .800 Anything less would be a disappointment for Parmelee (since he is part of the reason the Twins did not retain Kubel.)