Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Thrylos

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    11,094

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    9

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    Please do because I am drawing a total blank here. Same situation as Tim Wood last season and they kept him on the roster (albeit the 60 day DL) until very late in the season.
  2. Thrylos
    So you want to get rid of the best LHP (other than the closer) and the best RHP out of the pen? If you were saying something like the Twins should try to sell high on Fien and Thielbar because what they did last season is not sustainable, I'd get it...
  3. Thrylos
    Has to do with the Split contract he signed. Unless I am mistaken, he cannot be taken off the 40-man until late ST
  4. Thrylos
    Indeed. Same with Fryer. Albers and/or Colabello are goners, pending a trade, I suspect
  5. Thrylos
    Five guys. Add Gibson to the equation. He pitched better than Diamond last season. Add Kris Johnson to the equation. TR said that he is better than Diamond (he is) and will compete for a spot. That said, I'd rather see them sign Kazmir than Pelfrey. Need a LHP there. And I'd hand the #5 spot to Worley (people don't realize he is the same age as Kyle Gibson and he has has success in the majors in the past calling a bandbox of a ballpark home) and try to find good homes for Diamond and Deduno.
  6. Thrylos
    I think that Nolasco is a solid #2 and Hughes a solid #3 starter. Hopefully Gibson would be the #4 to allow Correia to be a #5. They still need a #1. It could very well be Meyer or an arm they sign. The biggest issue I have with the Twins rotation as it appears to set up for 2014 and the next few years is that the best LHSPs in the organization is of #5 or so quality. That's why a Kasmir signing for 2-3 years (or a trade) might go long ways...
  7. Thrylos
    You know that Diamond and Worley (and Deduno) are out of options so they are good as gone if they do not make the 25-man roster, correct?
  8. Thrylos
    Let's talk about it in early March. Still long ways to go this off-season.
  9. Thrylos
    So you really think that Diamond and Worley will pass through waivers etc to pitch at Rochester? They are out of options. Good luck.
  10. Thrylos
    There will be a lefty in the rotation... Hopefully they get Kazmir instead of using Diamond or Albers or Johnson
  11. Thrylos
    Yes it does change every year and it is an empirical distribution; lots like saying an ERA under 2 is amazing and and ERA over 6 is horrible. ERA distribution changes every year as well... The long answer about SIERA (by Matt Swartz who invented that measurement) starts here, goes through here and here and here and ends here, if you want some fun reading in a holiday weekend and interested in the differences between SIERA, ERA and xFIP to measure pitching performance.
  12. Thrylos
    As a starter with the Twins his SIERA in 2012 was 5.04 and in 2013 4.13. Career average, including his RP stints is 4.47. Here is the SIERA table from here: [TABLE=width: 200, align: center] [TR=bgcolor: #edf1f3] [TH=align: center]Rating[/TH] [TH=align: center]SIERA [/TH] [/TR] [TR=bgcolor: #ffffff] [TD=align: center]Excellent[/TD] [TD=align: center]2.90[/TD] [/TR] [TR=bgcolor: #ffffff] [TD=align: center]Great[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.25[/TD] [/TR] [TR=bgcolor: #ffffff] [TD=align: center]Above Average[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.75[/TD] [/TR] [TR=bgcolor: #ffffff] [TD=align: center]Average[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.90[/TD] [/TR] [TR=bgcolor: #ffffff] [TD=align: center]Below Average[/TD] [TD=align: center]4.20[/TD] [/TR] [TR=bgcolor: #ffffff] [TD=align: center]Poor[/TD] [TD=align: center]4.50[/TD] [/TR] [TR=bgcolor: #ffffff] [TD=align: center]Awful[/TD] [TD=align: center]5.00[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] So his best season was up to below average, career average is at the poor level and the season before he was awful. If that does not scream replacement level, I don't know what does... FIP, tRA, xFIP all saying the same story. Not that he cannot be a 5th starter in the majors. That's replacement level in most places. My point is that Worley is likely at least at that level, has had success and has still to enter his prime, so he is better suited than Deduno for that spot. And, yes, he is fun to watch pitching. Nobody denies that. Juan Morillo was fun to watch too...
  13. Thrylos
    Rogers Hornsby, Charlie Gehringer, Nap Lajoie, Eddie Collins, Frankie Frisch, Joe Morgan, Ryne Sandberg, Jackie Robinson, Bobby Doerr and the Twins' very own Rod Carew might disagree
  14. Thrylos
    Alright... let me throw this out: Please give me a single objective and measurable criterium (or any piece of data you like, but it has to be objective and measurable) that Deduno is above replacement level in his prime (now and for the last 2 seasons) Thank you.
  15. Thrylos
    When and how are you measuring? No way. Maybe Worley for a single season.
  16. Thrylos
    And Baker is not an outlier as far as their coaching goes: Liriano, Slowey, Garza, Lohse, Bonser etc need to be added to the list. The starting pitchers they did not mess with were either veterans (Pavano, Radke, Livan, Rogers, et al) or sinker/slider pitch to contract types (Blackburn, Silva, Mays et al) which are their model of successful pitchers. One exception: Johan Santana who Bobby Cuellar turned into a star.
  17. Thrylos
    Thanks for that. I guess I cannot wait
  18. Thrylos
    Puckett's contract was 5/$30.3M. Radke was indeed extended in 2000 but became a free agent in 2004 when he was signed to a 3/$28.75M contract. Puckett retired before his last season so I am not sure which of those 2 can be regarded as the highest FA, because Puckett actually received less $ than Radke. In my book, it is still Puckett. Nolasco's is much higher than both.
  19. Thrylos
    I've seen this repeated continuously these days Isn't the record contract for an internal free agent around $30 million, too? (Puckett & Radke) Or am I missing anything? Mauer, Morneau, Santana, Baker (some of those less too) were all extensions. They were never free agents. I know I am getting old so it is possible that I have forgotten someone, but I think that the Nolasco contract is a record for a Twins' free agent signing, internal or external
  20. Thrylos
    Zach Larson? Yeah. He is a lot like Joe Benson but will a little less range at CF, but he projects. Excellent 2013. 2014 would be an interesting season in Cedar Rapids.
  21. Thrylos
    I agree with the "Sell Low" on Worley for several issues, mainly because he is younger and before his prime, has had success (in a bandbox) in the majors and has an excuse (being grossly out of shape that resulted in bad mechanics) for his 2013 performance. Diamond's 2013 was exactly like his 2011, which, in combination to his non-exceptional arsenal, makes me think that 2012 was the aberration here and indeed all he is, is a replacement level pitcher. Diamond's issue is that he has only 3 pitches of which only one (curve ball) had been effective and above average in the past. If you lose the feel of that pitch in any season (like in 2013) bad things will happen, because you will start throwing below par stuff out there. Denuno is a AAAA pitcher who had some success in an exhibition tournament (WBC) and has been replacement level in his MLB career, despite the First Scout, handing him practically a starting job, like he did with Diamond last off-season (and we know how that went.) He was 30 last season, his best in the majors, btw; however, if your best, at your prime, is about 1.5 K/BB along with a 14% K%, and a 4+ FIP you are replacement level.
  22. Thrylos
    According to Doogie Wolfson today, the Twins have not talked with Hughes' (or Arroyo's for that matter) reps for "over a week". So nothing seems imminent. With turkey day yesterday, everyone ready to travel to Orlando this weekend and a major press conference (either in FL or MN) next week to present Nolasco, I doubt anything is going to happen before the Winter Meetings (well... they start on Monday)
  23. Thrylos
    Felix is not a secret I'd argue that 2013 was his breakout season. Pitchers: Josh Burris (converted to a starter last season in E-town) in CR and if he gets his control in place he will surprise. Brian Gilbert who would likely start the season as the CR closer moving up to the same position in Fort Myers and will more than keep up with the Joneses. Trevor May. He has to. Period. And he will, if he focuses 100% on baseball. Position players: Really high on Turner, btw. I have him ranked as the highest C prospect in the Twins' system. Pinto excluded. Amaurys Minier. He will spend the season in E-town and put Sano-like numbers in HR (20) and K (77) at the same age (18) at the same place. Kenys Vargas. The newly expectant father will put Mike Cuddyer-like (2001) numbers in New Britain. In other words he would repeat his Beloit season up there. And finally will get the respect he deserves in the prospect rankings and maybe even a September call up like Pinto. JD Williams. Starts the season in Fort Myers and moves to New Britain. Has a close to 20 (2B)/20 (HR)/20 (SB) total season. The Twins are thinking on converting him to 2B (again).
  24. Thrylos
    Not sure if it has been widely publicized, but Wimmers had another procedure on the TJ reconstructed elbow to "decompress" the nerve (which is sitting right there 1/8th of an inch from the new tendon) this off-season. What exactly was hurting the nerve was not mentioned but likely was connective tissue due to the TJ surgery rather than bone fragments (both possibilities.) Not sure if anyone in their right mind would take a flyer on a guy who a. did not pitch much in pro ball other than 50-60 innings in high A really to make a decision on whether he can pitch and b. do not know whether he can pitch in ST to even have the time to make a decision on whether to keep him or not. Very very hard to see. Pat Dean, Adrian Salcedo and AJ Achter (in this order) are the most likely Twins to get drafted in the MLB portion of the draft, but I would not bet the house on it. Re: Fryer and 40 man roster. Fryer is on the 40-man because of the split contract. Not sure whether the Twins would violate the contract if they remove him (he has no options, so he would essentially get DFA'd if removed.) Not exactly sure how this works and whether they can do it before ST ends. Same situation with Wood last season who was on the 40-man but on the 60 day DL for most of the season before he got released late in the season.
  25. Thrylos
    I just don't understand the concern with the full 40-man roster: a. they can move off about 10 players with no issue when they sign their next free agents or they can trade a player or 2. b. Would anyone really mind if the Twins actually go after good players this season instead of bottom feeding for mediocrity in the Rule 5 draft? Really?
×
×
  • Create New...