biggentleben
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Everything posted by biggentleben
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I really enjoyed the arc of the whole season. It was a very well done show so far. The episode with the other sports writers was golden.
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When I interviewed Hahn this spring, he mentioned that they were looking to do a "quality over quantity" rebuild. He cited the rebuild that the Padres have undertaken and mentioned that the path they are taking will take years to achieve, though building up their system in that manner will be fruitful for a long run. They were looking for 2-3 elite pieces back in a trade this winter than 5-7 very good pieces. He acknowledged that there are many who would say their farm system could have used the depth, but he was very adamant about pursuing top level guys being the strategy they will continue in future moves, both in the acquisition of amateur talent and in making trade acquisitions. Robert may blow their July 2017 out of the water, but they have a guy in hand now that many have considered one of the best prospects in baseball the moment he puts on his first uniform. That to go with the #1 prospect in all of baseball, three pitching prospects who rank in the top 25-30 prospects in the entire game, and a few other big pieces from those trades as well, all acquired since 2016's season closed.
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I put up something at Call To The Pen today, studying the best #1 overall picks, inspired by the fact that the Twins are less than a month from the draft and still in first place. By far the best was the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays as far as season success. However, interesting tid bit is that the Twins had the best winning percentage at the time of making the #1 selection when they picked Mauer in 2001.
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The situation of the game (the Braves superstar severely injured, Bautista bat flipping a home run down 4 runs) added to this as well. There was high agitation in that game already, and Pillar just pushed it forward further, hence the punishment.
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He's got a few teams that really like him. I know the Braves have been doing some hard looking at him recently, and I got some reports of who were in the stands with the Braves guys who were viewing him when I talked with them. I don't know if he actually gets that low, but I'd be surprised if the Twins let him get by 37 for sure.
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BA copied me! LOL! I had Wright at #1 for the Twins in my mock this week as well. https://calltothepen.com/2017/05/17/2017-mlb-mock-draft-version-3-1/
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Hmmm, okay. I know that Gore was on the Braves radar for #5 at the beginning of his 2017 season, so there was something there with teams, even if not with publications.
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Gore's helium has really been all season as he was discussed in February/March as a top 5 guy. He just didn't have that helium out of showcases, but there are a lot of reasons that can change. Carlson has been bumped up a ton since April and his season beginning, but that's similar to Ian Anderson last season, and if you'd do the 2016 draft all over again, it's pretty certain Anderson's a consensus top 5 pick at this point rather than a "surprise" pick at #3. Interestingly, there's a lot of similarity between Anderson and Carlson.
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When he had more pronounced cutter usage recently, I thought there was a better Lester top end upside than Lee, so that makes sense. On the Carlson/Gore bit, I hear a ton from folks about how much their team loves both. I'd be surprised if both get out of the top 10, but I've yet to see a mock (outside of one I did right away) with both in the top 10.
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Though I do think it was interesting that he got tagged with swing and miss issues when he struck out at roughly 15-20% of his showcase PAs. He just had so rarely struck out previous (including the previous summer when he was part of Perfect Game All-Star events between his sophomore and junior years) that it surprised those watching, leading to the "strikeout prone" evaluation.
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Yes, significantly. There's not any statistical proof that anyone with an "inverted W" is more likely to have an injury, let alone surgery, than someone who does not have such a position. When that was presented, O'Leary doubled down by basically showing that every pitcher ever has had an inverted W at some point in their delivery, but that pretty much ruins his entire argument.
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I'm in a similar boat. I actually see Hans Crouse in that situation. He reminds me of Alex Wood a lot in that it looks absolutely horrible in totality, but if you look at the specific points of load and release, he has his legs under him well and his body in a good position for torque at those positions as odd as it may be in viewing the movements to get to those points.
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O'Leary is a guy who saw the parental worry about Tommy John, started making a few GIFs, and sold his "program" to tons of concerned parents around the nation. He landed a few big-name guys, like Matt Harvey (seriously, read his excuses on why Matt is injured or not performing well, all begins with when he stopped working with O'Leary, according to O'Leary, that is), and really became the first real big user of the "inverted W" term. Of course, that has been incredibly debunked, but he still is out there schilling the same stuff.
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It shouldn't. O'Leary is basically a snake oil salesman in the eyes of MLB people.
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I really think Houck has a better chance of getting to 35 than Baz or Carlson, both of which are getting quite a bit of buzz from teams in the top 15.
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Twins Acquire LHP Kevin Chapman For Danny Santana
biggentleben replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You've not noticed the black hole that is the Braves bench, have you? Julio Teheran pinch hit and pinch ran in back to back games between starts. -
Released on Tuesday by the Braves AA club.
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Appreciate the reasoned response, but Matt Walsh has more issues than Sports Illustrated in many areas of life. I'd have trouble utilizing him as a positive example of, well, anything.
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Thanks! I think it's been exposed that there was some misinformation on Adell out there that is being exposed this spring. His swing mechanically is not the worry that rumor mills reported over the winter. I think a guy like Adell would be the type to get the Reds to move off of college player (obviously Greene as well, but if there is something there where he's going to price himself out of Cincy, they may well go for a guy like Adell/Lewis/Gore/Beck at 2.
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This after I'd already submitted my mock that came out today, where I had two guys talk to me about how great his stuff looked on the mound if he could just get to the finish line of the season: https://calltothepen.com/2017/05/10/mlb-mock-draft-version-2-1/ Second time I've ended up with the Twins with two guys I think they'll use as arms, though two different ones this time. In all seriousness, I don't think Romero falls beyond the 50th pick in the draft. That'd be the floor. Where above that he goes is the question.
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I just know what scouts have told me. The one who saw him this weekend said his stuff was tremendous but raw.
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At what age do you start to discount prospects?
biggentleben replied to AZTwin's topic in Other Baseball
So, why again are you arguing with my comment? I said from the get go that the studies have shown that once a player comes up, they have their best years in the first 3-5 years they're up. If that was taken as the first time the player gets called up for a September call up or has a cup of coffee trial but is sent back down, then I guess it was simply a misunderstanding, but after explaining it and still digging in heels... -
At what age do you start to discount prospects?
biggentleben replied to AZTwin's topic in Other Baseball
And every name you gave was not included in the "recent" studies I mentioned. I could search for the Fangraphs articles on the issue, but the studies have shown that a player's peak production for his career is immediately in his career as a regular for those debuting most recently. They are not seeing a peak in their late 20s anymore specifically, but more a peak in relation to when the player debuts, not age-specific. I'd also include on the guys who are most recent in that list you offered: Ortiz didn't have a 500 PA season until he was 27 - his 3 best bWAR seasons were in his first 5 full seasons. Baustista had his first 500 PA season at 26 - his 2 best bWAR seasons were in his first 5 full seasons as a regular. Martinez didn't have his first 500 PA season until 27 Millar had his first 500 PA season at 31 and never once had even a 3.0 bWAR season, so not a great example Cruz had his first full season at 28. He's the rare guy who has done better outside of that initial window, but it's also beyond age 31, as his best WAR seasons have been the last three seasons. Lee had his first 30-start season at 25, and even with his early struggles, his 2nd best WAR season came within that 5 year window Werth had his first 500 PA season at 30 and put up his 2nd best WAR number his first two full seasons Reliever converts are a whole other thing, but even then, their best years were typically in their first 3-5 years as regulars in the role. -
Canning is definitely a mid-first guy. Romero returned to Houston this week and had some rust, but very good reports on his raw stuff. He could put up a strong finish to possibly be a top 10 consideration guy.
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At what age do you start to discount prospects?
biggentleben replied to AZTwin's topic in Other Baseball
The studies recently have been that the peak years of a player are his first 3-5 years in the league, regardless of age. That has shifted from the conventional wisdom that peak was 27-31 previously. Different players have different paths, so it all depends on the player. A player like Sano, who had been receiving professional instruction since 16 would be quite old as a prospect by 26, but someone who came into baseball late in high school, went to a small college, spent all four years there, and then went into pro ball could have only been receiving professional instruction for 3-4 years at the same age and be much more raw.
