markos

Valencia is a great example of the utility of a platoon. While with the Twins, 65% of the games Valencia started were against right-handed pitchers. With the Orioles this season, only 25% of the games he started have been against right-handed pitchers. Considering his career OPS against lefties is .879, he is certainly a valuable asset when used properly. I don't mean to high-jack this thread, so I won't go an a tirade about platooning. However, this is an example of a young player who was essentially given up on by management instead of being used in situations where he could have provided significant value. A lot of young talent is going to be joining the major league club in the next 2 seasons (and has joined the team, like Arcia and Hicks). It worries me that players will be quickly thrown aside if they struggle in an everyday role instead of put them into situations that maximize the value they can provide. Or they will be overused in roles that doesn't suit them, which will impact their ability to win games.

Thanks for posting all the chat updates!

This post has a bunch of good video of Meyer (and others) doing bullpen work: Inside Look at Florida Instructional League 9/19 Camp Day - Twinkie Town

Alex Meyer update. He is pitching down at the Florida Instructional League. Here is a really fantastic article over at Twinkietown about his recent start. Lots of really good nuggets in there. Florida Instructional League Game 9/21 and Interview with Alex Meyer - Twinkie Town

Very good points. I dug around a little bit and I couldn't find any trades of note. Way to kill my trade speculation buzz...

Intriguing name, but too much injury risk for me. He has barely pitched 150 innings in the last three seasons combined. Since we are throwing names out, what do you think about Rosario and Kepler for Kris Medlen? Or what about Dozier and Kepler for Medlen? Atlanta may actual prefer that one. I'm leaning toward NO because Medlen only has 2 seasons of team control left. But if there was a reasonable contract extension included with the trade, then maybe. If there was 3 years of team control, then I would probably support it. Either way, I definitely wouldn't rip the trade if it did occur.

fWAR the past 4 seasons (2010 - 2013, AVG): James Shields 1.7 4.5 3.9 4.0, 3.53 Mat Latos 4.0 3.2 2.9 4.4, 3.63 Gio Gonzalez 3.0 3.3 5.0 2.6, 3.46 Shields cost a top-5 prospect + some odds and ends. Latos and Gonzalez both cost one prospect in the 30s, one prospect in the 50s + some odds and ends. Rosario + someone good (Arcia this year, maybe Berrios next year) should be in the ballpark for a really solid pitcher with 3+ years of team control left. I feel that the Royals way overpaid for Shields relative to other recent trades.

The "trade him now" responses don't address the questions of which pitchers are actually available this offseason, and which teams are selling. Other than David Price, who else is rumored to be on the market right now? Personally, I haven't heard of many other names, which is one of the main reasons I think it is better to wait a year. However, I'm willing to reconsider my position if there are several trade options available that I'm unaware of.

Keith Law: #41 John Sickels: #56 Baseball Prospectus: honorable mention (i.e. top-75) Baseball America: unmentioned Fangraphs: unmentioned I agree with you. He is probably a consensus top-75 guy, not top-50.

I think good templates for pitching trades are the Gio Gonzalez and Mat Latos trades made back after the 2011 season. Both of those trades didn't involve a top-10 prospect, but rather a couple of prospects in the 30-60 range. Rosario probably fits that range, if not this offseason then next. May throw in someone like Berrios and that could be enough to get an established #1 starter with 3+ years of team control. However, it is possible that last year's Myers/Shields trade has completely distorted the trade market for starters right now, similar to how the Wheeler/Beltran trade has messed up deadline deals. I don't think this is the offseason to make a trade like that. Right now it doesn't seem like there are many teams that are going to start rebuilding (and selling off assets). However, next year may be different. Arizona may decide to start rebuilding if they fail to make the playoffs again. That may mean someone like Patrick Corbin will be available. The Mets may want to speed up their rebuilding, and they may be willing to trade one of their young starters for some young bats. A pitching rich team like the Braves or Cardinals may unexpectedly miss the playoffs and decide to add some offensive talent. Finally, some of the Rays' young pitchers (Chis Archer, Alex Cobb) may start to be too expensive. I don't see any comparable situation this year. My suggestion would be to hang on to Rosario this season. Keep him in the minors next year (unless Dozier really struggles or Rosario rakes), and then look to trade him next offseason. Adding one starting pitcher, even one as good as David Price, most likely isn't going to put this team into contention next year. There are too many holes to fill and too many young players that need to develop quickly and all at once. However, hopefully the team will be in a very different position next offseason, and adding one front line pitcher may make the different.

At least 5 of the top HS draft picks from the 2011 have at least reached AA by now. I think the baseline for Stewart is to expect him in AA by 2015. If he does better than expected, he could be a September call up that year.

Bold! That is the Jose Fernandez/Dylan Bundy schedule. Even if he doesn't reach A+ next year, he could still be on pace to reach AA by 2015. Several of the top HS arms from the 2011 draft made it to AA this year.

You said this: "Except that the Twins need a second catcher to rest Mauer. Listen, Doumit is not the problem. He's a great guy to have at C and DH 3-4 times a week." When I first read this, I also thought you were arguing that a) Doumit should be backup catcher (1-2 starts per week) AND Doumit should DH 3-4 times a week (3-4 starts per week) ----------------- totals 4-6 starts per week Now it is clear that you meant that Combined DH and backup catching should be 3-4 games a week.

John asked, “So how do we judge the Twins rebuilding effort?”. My answer is “What rebuilding effort?”. In my opinion, there is not much "rebuilding effort" to judge. If the beginning of this rebuilding period can be identified as the middle of the 2011 season, then there have been very few moves made in the past 2+ years to accelerate the rebuilding process. In fact, the only move I would consider a “rebuilding” move is the decision to trade both Span AND Revere last season. (My feeling is that even if the Twins were contenders last year they would have tried to move either Span or Revere last offseason, so it doesn’t make sense to credit both trades as “rebuilding moves.”) Contrast the Twins moves (or lack there of) with truly rebuilding teams, like the Cubs or the Astros, and it is very apparent that they aren’t putting much effort into this rebuild. The Cubs have traded away most of their veteran players in exchange for prospects; they have probably added at least a dozen new players into their farm system via trades. Yes, they haven’t acquired many high-end prospects, but they definitely filled in their 5-20 spots in the farm system. Additionally, the Cubs have been more aggressive on the international markets and in the draft. This “rebuild” has just been business as usual for the front office: filling roster holes with inexpensive veterans and minor league callups. Looking ahead, even once the Twins are competitive again, I’m not sure how much credit should go to Terry Ryan for “rebuilding” the team. It is quite likely that much of the core of the next good Twins team will have been acquired PRIOR to the current rebuilding phase (and by Bill Smith!): Arcia, Sano, Rosario, (hopefully) Hicks, Gibson, Kepler, Polanco, et al. Additionally, the talent acquired from recent drafts (Buxton, Berrios, Stewart, et al) didn’t require any special action, just drafting the best player available. I guess it is to Ryan’s credit that he hasn’t traded away Buxton or Sano in search of a quick fix, a la Dayton Moore. But overall, the only action done to actively accelerate the rebuilding process was one trade. That isn't much.

Really nice outing by Meyer last night for New Britain. I was at the game and have a short writeup here: Meyer, Sano and Rosario - Twinkie Town Also, here is some crappy video that I took:

Videos are here: Rosario bunt. Sano double. Meyer strikeout. Again, sorry for the terrible quality.

I was at the New Britain game last night as well. I wrote up my thoughts about Meyer, Sano and Rosario here: Meyer, Sano and Rosario - Twinkie Town I'll try to upload some video/pics later, though don't hold your breath. I forgot to adjust the settings on my camera, and the video is rather terrible quality.

I'm hoping to see the Rock Cats play tonight or tomorrow. Does anyone know who is starting tonight and tomorrow? I think May is lined up to pitch tomorrow if they stay on schedule, but they may be moving people around if they are trying to make room for Meyer to make a start.

Does anyone know where/when Alex Meyer is pitching next? I think I heard somewhere that he is already with the New Britain team.

I'm unreasonably concerned that the Twins are going to go on some kind of hot streak and end up with a pick in the teens next June rather than one in the top-5. The spread between 4 and 14 are so close, and it makes it hard to cheer for the Twins to win. Last night I was super pumped up and excited when Perkins slammed the door in Cabrera's face. However, I looked at the overall standing this morning and saw that they are now at #8 instead of #5, and the gap to #14 is still only 3 games. Hopefully some separation will form in the bottom of the standing so that I can cheer for the Twins to win without reservation.

Meyer had another rehab outing for the Gulf Coast League. In this game he appeared to be in top form. He through 3 2/3 innings, gave up 2 hits, but had NINE strikeouts. So of the 11 outs he recorded, 9 came via strikeout. Not too shabby. Unless there are specific concerns that the front office has identified (ex. velocity not all the way back, pitch count limits, not throwing breaking ball well, etc), Meyer's results seem to indicate that he is all the way back and should be promoted back up to AA.

It should be noted that the opposing starter in New Britain's Friday night game was Noah Syndergaard, who is one of the top 5-10 pitching prospects in baseball right now. He was obviously dealing that night, as he had 10 strikeouts in only 5 innings (to go with no walks and just 3 hits). Rosario and Sano both struck out twice in their two at bats against him. I haven't gone through the game logs to verify this, but there seems to be a good chance that Syndergaard is the best pitcher they have ever faced. Hopefully they will able to learn from these at bats, as they will be facing more and more pitchers of Syndergaard's quality (and better) as they move up the farm system and into the majors during the next year or so. I've always thought that an interesting research project would be to catalog whenever top prospects face each other. Though I suspect that the sample-sizes will be too small to be meaningful, it may provide some insight into how prospects will perform as they are promoted. For example, a hitter who hits well against all competition may do better on promotion than a hitter who hits well against the dregs of the level but struggles against the other elite talents, even though their overall stat lines may be identical.

Meyer pitched again today down in the Gulf Coast League. He pitched three scoreless innings, striking out two. From the game log it appears that he struggled a bit in the first inning, as he walked two of the first three batters. However, he got out of the inning, and proceeded to go two more innings, scattering two hits. I'm not sure what his pitch count was for the game, but he ended up facing 12 batters. I'm guessing he threw roughly 50 pitches.

A similar comparison has to be the Miguel Cabrera trade back in 2007. According to Baseball-Reference: Traded by the Florida Marlins with Dontrelle Willis to the Detroit Tigers for Dallas Trahern (minors), Burke Badenhop, Frankie De La Cruz, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and Mike Rabelo. It is a little hard to calculate the exact value for just Cabrera because Willis and Cabrera were bundled together, but if I recall correctly Willis was thrown in as a salary purge. It isn't an apples-to-apples comparison, as Cabrera just finished his age-24 season (Stanton is a year younger), and was a couple years closer to free agency than Stanton would be. Still, Maybin and Miller were both top-10 Prospects, though Miller had already graduated to the majors by the time of the trade. According to Baseball America, de la Cruz was the #6 prospect in their system, while Trahern was #8. Using this as a baseline, a similar package (based on similar team-relative prospect rankings) for the Twins would be Sano, Buxton, Berrios and Kepler.

Meyer finally took the mound again this season, this time for the Ft. Myers Twins in the Gulf Coast League. He faced 9 batters and recorded 5 strikeouts, but gave up a walk and 3 hits before reaching his pitch count limit.