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markos

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Everything posted by markos

  1. markos
    Maybe? For some reason, the Astros and Dodgers have consistently managed to acquire pitchers that I would consider significant (Rich Hill, Darvish, Verlander, Cole) without giving up their best prospects. On the other hand, the Cubs and Red Sox have traded away ELITE prospects for their pitchers. I think there are a lot of guys that could slide into the #2 spot behind Berrios and not cost one of the Twins top prospects: Zack Wheeler Zack Greinke Marcus Stroman Mike Minor Robbie Ray Sonny Gray All of those guys are currently pitching as well or better than Perez/Odorizzi and projected to pitch better than them going forward.
  2. markos
    Yeah, I think this is right. And a lot will depend on how much salary Washington is willing to eat. And I feel like the structure of the contract disadvantages the Twins quite a bit. Having a deferred $15M for the next 7 seasons is a rounding error for big market teams like Boston, NYY, LAD, etc. But it is over 10% of the Twins yearly budget.
  3. markos
    Scherzer's situation is complicated. He is under contract for two more years yet has 7yr, $105M from 2022-2028 in deferred salary. I don't know what kind of value with that kind of financial commitment hanging over his head.
  4. markos
    Thanks for the correction. I misused Fangraphs new minor league leaderboards and inadvertently combined the 2018 and 2019 seasons when I thought I was looking up 2018. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&lg=10&stats=bat&qual=50&type=1&team=59&season=2018&seasonEnd=2019&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players= Combined between 2018 and 2019, he has a 117 wRC+, which I do think fits the "well above-average" descriptor. But of course, that's not what I said. Sorry for misleading people. That said, I'm still jumping on the bandwagon.
  5. markos
    Apologies for being away from the site for the past couple of weeks, but who is driving the Ben Rortvedt bandwagon? I'd like to hop on board! Is there still room? His .246/.368/.456 batting line looks unexciting, but one adjusts for the fact that the Florida State League is a terrible place for batters (only 12 batters have more than 2 home runs), he is: 1 - Of all the players 21 and younger in the league, he is 4th overall in batting. 2 - AS A CATCHER! 3 - And it is not a BABIP fluke either (only .273) 4 - AS A CATCHER! 5 - 1:1 BB:K ratio!!! 6 - AS A CATCHER! 7 - For all batters in the league, top 14th in SLG and 4th in ISO. 8 - AS A CATCHER! Anyway, future top-100 prospect? (Also, he was quietly well above-average for the league last year. This is now 250 above-average PAs at High-A with great peripherals.)
  6. markos
    I think small-market teams specifically benefit from the ditching of the August waiver deadline. Good teams, who have a real need for a specific player, can easily get blocked by their opponents (with worse records or in the other league) making waiver claims on that specific player. But there is an asymmetry there, as small-market teams are probably more reluctant to make a defensive claim on an expensive player that would help their opponents because they can ill-afford to be saddled with the salary. Personally, I wish they would have just moved the regular trade deadline to August 31.
  7. markos
    I wonder if this is one of those things that might change back quickly. I can imagine that there might be a lot of pushback by fans if they have to watch their own pitcher implode for 3 batters. Is it really a good thing for the game if a pitcher walks the first batter on 4 pitches and then gets booed by his own fans for 2 more batters as he is struggling to find the zone? Does that speed up the game at all? A new pitcher will need to enter that game anyway. Also, it probably isn't a good look if a bunch of pitchers get "injured" mid-batter or something in order to get another pitcher in the game.
  8. markos
    LOOGY usage has been steadily deteriorating over the past few seasons anyway. Only 11% of LHP relief appearances lasted for only one batter last year, which is way down from the peak usage in the 1990s and 2000s when it was over 15%. My guess is that a combination of overall better relievers, higher strikeout rates, and shifting is rendering that role obsolete.
  9. markos
    In my opinion, capping the number of pitchers on the active roster is the biggest potential change. I'm really curious what they end up with for that cap. The cap, combined with 15-day DL, could really force teams to look for multi-inning relievers and encourage their starters to work deeper into games.
  10. markos
    Beyond just the specific stats, it is pretty clear that most Fangraphs writers and analysts THINK about baseball the same way front offices do. If you go to any of the sports analytics conferences (like Sloan, SABR Analytics, Saberseminar) and listen to the front office folks talk about baseball, they speak in the same language as Fangraphs. Concepts like valuing every event in runs, replacement level, sample size, converting runs to wins, surplus value, competitive windows, projection systems and on and on are considered common knowledge. So while every team probably has their own (probably better) way of valuing events or making projections, the framework they use to fit all these pieces are very similar to the information that Fangraphs is presenting.
  11. markos
    I'm pretty sure that the Orioles didn't send any actual money to the Twins. The Twins just acquired international bonus pool space, which allows them to legally (from a MLB-perspective) spend more of their own money on international free agents between now and June 30.
  12. markos
    Yeah, I agree with you, but at the same time I'm willing to give the front office the benefit of the doubt here. Hard to believe that they would take such a large chunk of money without having a plan for spending it on someone.
  13. markos
    Just to add to what Tom said, you could make a strong case that by this offseason the Astros thought of him more as their left-fielder and less as a sub-sub: he started in LF every playoff game in both 2017 and 2018 until Altuve was hurt and moved to DH, in 2018 he started twice as often at LF than any other position and almost as much as every other position combined, he had 20 more LF starts than the second most guy (Tony Kemp), and they more or less replaced him (salary wise) by signing a full-time LF in Brantley.
  14. markos
    That was because there was typically four guys hurt/terrible/suspended, and Escobar could admirably fill the shoes of one of them. Gonzalez is likely going to play the same role as Escobar the past few seasons. Nice player to have, but he doesn't raise their ceiling very much, if at all, and frankly I don't think he is worth the money/commitment.
  15. markos
    Cron has historically had zero platoon split - from both sides he is better than Gonzalez. Schoop has a mild reverse split, as he is slightly better against RHP than LHP, and his career OPS against RHP is better than Gonzalez. Rosario's career OPS against LHP is .711. Gonzalez's is .730. The only major upgrade is Kepler against LHP, and he is the one player they just made a long-term commitment to.
  16. markos
    This is a good list. Regarding #8 (specifically, acquiring a high-caliber starter), do you have an particular names on your radar? Right now, most high-caliber starters are on contending teams, so it isn't at all clear to me who will be available come July.
  17. markos
    His age is incorrect. It should be (from Fangraphs) 6/5/1999 (19 y, 8 m, 10 d).
  18. markos
    Is the structure, in part, dictated by arbitration? I know they often use player comps (performance + service time) to come up with salary estimates. If they even just had a flat rate for Polanco's deal ($5M/year), could a future arbitration case use Polanco's hypothetical $5M arb1 salary (rather than the actual $2.5M arb1 salary) as a comp when arguing for their salary?
  19. markos
    Or alternatively, Polanco is the only player that isn't willing to bet on himself and would rather take the guaranteed money now.
  20. markos
    I don't get it either. Polanco was going to be here for the next 4 seasons regardless of signing an extension or not. The front office wouldn't be making a deal with Polanco unless they thought it added long-term value for the team. So it's not like Polanco becomes unmovable in the situation where Gordon and Lewis both break out.
  21. markos
    Um... so I really, really want to believe, but Graterol (and prospects like him) seem SOOOO high risk in my opinion. I mean, if you look at the top pitchers by fWAR this year, or even the last few years, the rankings are dominated by college pitchers. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&page=1_50 10 of the top 14 pitchers by fWAR were all drafted out of college. Yet every year, top-100 prospect lists have multiple 19yo-20yo guys with amazing stuff. I don't know what this all means, but I'm just so hesitant to rank such a young pitcher this high.
  22. markos
    I think this is a very, very good point. And in the context of the current young core on this team, it is worth pointing out that almost everything went wrong last year, and they still won 78 games. This team has such a high floor right now, so I think it would have made sense for the front office to do everything they could to try to raise their ceiling. Where they are at right now, with a 81-83 win projection, Buxton could break out and have a 8 WAR season like everyone hopes and dreams... and the team will win 88 games and still miss the playoffs.
  23. markos
    I am not a fan of Javier - too many red flags for me to rank him this high. He has missed long stretches across multiple seasons due to injuries; at what point do we consider him injury prone? Second, his only real stretch of playing time demonstrated that he has some real contact issues (27% K%), and his overall batting line ended up okay because of a .410 BABIP.
  24. markos
    It would be hard to tease this out, but I wonder what percentage of a young player's development comes solely from their physical growth and maturation (bigger, stronger, more coordinated, more endurance), separate from the actual reps and level of competition they see.
  25. markos
    My guess: Graterol and Enlow would compare favorably to the pitchers. I have a hard time finding anyone in the Twins organization to compare to Alfaro. Maybe Jorge Polanco.
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