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markos

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Everything posted by markos

  1. markos
    Yeah, betting on Cron is betting on that his huge HR/FB rate spike is real and sustainable. A lot of his other stats didn't really show much change.
  2. markos
    I also don't think Santana is the answer, especially at his current price point. But I don't think you are giving him a fair shake here. He has been average or better at all the baserunning metrics for the past 4 seasons, and he has graded average or better at first base defense by all the metrics as well. And if you don't trust the defensive metrics, the Statcast sprint speed data has him exactly the same as Joe Mauer last year. And the gap between him and Albert Pujols (the slowest guy on the list) is basically as big as the gap between Santana and Buxton. He is not a Molina. Further, while CBP does help with HRs, its small dimensions suppress singles and doubles. Given that power isn't really Santana's game, the ballpark probably didn't give him a many favors. And while I know that ballpark effects are a contentious topic, Fangraphs at least has Target Fields as a more hitter-friendly park than CBP over the past 5 seasons.
  3. markos
    My two cents about a hypothetical Cano-Diaz trade. Cano+Diaz is roughly value neutral. Diaz's surplus value basically cancels Cano's underwater deal. I'd ask for $45M from the Mariners to offset some of Cano's salary, but I'd specificly require it to be spread across years 2021-2023. So Cano's contract essentially would become: 2-yr, $48M deal 3-yr, $27M deal In return, I'd send Nick Gordon and one of Meija, Stewart, Gonsalves, Thorpe.
  4. markos
    Sure, but the reliever on his own probably costs Kirilloff or Lewis. Cano+Diaz costs maybe Nick Gordon.
  5. markos
    On the flip side, ask the A's, Brewers, Royals and Orioles what it is like to have a reliever with a sub-2.00 ERA and a 40%+ strikeout rate. A team can pencil over a lot of roster issues if the back end of the bullpen basically stops giving up runs.
  6. markos
    What the Brewers showed is that an above-average rotation isn't necessary if you have a reliever (or two) that just plain stop giving up runs. The A's this past season, and the Royals and Orioles teams of recent years, have also followed this pattern. But that just shifts the focus from finding top-end starters to finding a reliever or relievers with essentially 1.00 ERAs.
  7. markos
    I know. I was pretty disappointed by this myself. The way I see it, this team need to make some high-variance moves in order to move the needle enough for them to be legitimate contenders with the Indians/Astros/Red Sox/Yankees with this current core of players. And it turns out that the off-season has had some reasonably costed, high-variance moves! Donaldson to Atlanta on a 1-year deal. The Paxton trade. Both of those would have looked good for this team.
  8. markos
    There is the obvious way of drafting/developing your own prospects, but personally, I'd like to see them target youngish big-league pitchers with ace-potential and trust the development staff to raise them to the ace level. That is basically what the Astros did with Cole, the Indians did with Bauer, the Tigers did with Scherzer, and the Yankees are trying to do that with Paxton. None of those deals required a top-10 prospect.
  9. markos
    This is extremely disappointing to me. Certainly seems like Paxton's price was within reach for the Twins.
  10. markos
    Was it a fluke, though? They obviously weren't counting on him, but they liked him enough to give him a 40-man spot despite not having any options left, which says a lot for a NL team when talking about a 1B only player. More generally, the Brewers have made a lot of roster moves since Stearns took over, and they have hit on a lot of them. There are probably ten quality players that they acquired either for free via waivers or for very little via trade: Travis Shaw Jesus Aguilar Manny Pina Hernan Perez Jonathan Villar Keon Broxton Chase Anderson Junior Guerra Freddy Peralta Jeremy Jeffress Plus they hit on their biggest moves this past offseason. Plus they hit on moving Hader to the bullpen. I think they have a long enough track record of successful moves - for multiple season across all levels of the organization - that I'm willing to say that it is less about "luck" or "flukes", and more about successful player analysis and development. And it is something I really wish the Twins could emulate: the ability to grind out team improvements in transactions across all levels (veteran-for-prospect, veteran-for-veteran, wavier pickups, rule-5, free agency).
  11. markos
    Clay Davenport calculates some crude advanced defensive metrics for minor league players. You can find an example here for Nick Gordon. http://www.claydavenport.com/ht/GORDON19951024A.shtml His data is not the most user friendly, but in the first table you can see "68-SS -1 28-2B 2" That means that he calculated that Gordon was -1 runs at SS and +2 runs at 2B this year at AAA (relative to the average AAA SS). I'm not 100% certain of the details, but I'm pretty sure that it is calculated base on play-by-play data, which is cruder than the methods used for calculating UZR or DRS. The subsequent tables are all translations to attempt to project future ability. And for reference, Gordon has slightly better defensive numbers than Polanco. http://www.claydavenport.com/ht/POLANCO19930705A.shtml
  12. markos
    Do you know off the top of your head if Buxton is arbitration eligible after this season regardless of whether the Twins call him up in September or not? I'm assuming that he will be Super-2 if he is not called up...
  13. markos
    I don't think he will ever play 2B again full time. He might be okay at 1B/DH, but he was never very good defensively, and now he's been dealing with knee issues. All that said, depending on where the Twins end up with Mauer/Sano/etc next year, I could see a scenario where he makes sense on a 1-year deal.
  14. markos
    My opinion differs here, as I think there are a lot of reasonable middle-infield FA options available this upcoming offseason. Players I would include in the Escobar/Forsythe/Dozier bucket: Asdrubal Cabrera DJ LeMahieu Jed Lowrie Daniel Descalso Jose Iglesias Jordy Mercer
  15. markos
    I think the most important part of the Indians blueprint was that they were able to keep Kluber and Carrasco healthy and effective. No one today is lauding the Rays, Braves, Rangers or Reds for their ability to lock up Matt Moore, Julio Teheran, Matt Harrison or Homer Bailey into long-term, team-friendly extensions. If Falvey can't recreate the same good fortune with health and effectiveness with the Twins, then in a certain sense it doesn't really matter if they are able to sign Berrios to a long term deal or not.
  16. markos
    I doubt anyone will ever find out the truth, but I did wonder if the Brewers offered the same deal for Dozier as they made for Moustakas. Moustakas has been a slightly better hitter, but they both have identical ZiPS projections and Dozier probably gets a few bonus points for actually being a 2B rather than forcing Shaw to a position he has literally never played before. Anyway, I wouldn't be shocked if the offer (two quasi-failed prospects that both require 40-man spots) was greeted with a "thanks, but no thanks" response from the Twins.
  17. markos
    Thanks for sharing! And frankly, this is exactly why I keep coming back to this site - lots of people here are willing to take the time and effort to either do the research or share their knowledge when random, niche questions come up, or just share something they were curious about.
  18. markos
    Of the players you listed, only the 19-year-old Stanton had comparable K% in AA. Most of the others were much closer to 20%. For all the excitement about Rooker right now, patience is key. Yes, he is having a good stretch here, but he still has some warning flags and is potentially a long way from the majors. For example, look at Aaron Judge's progression. He was in AA in 2015 at a similar age to Rooker, and he was putting up better overall numbers than Rooker. He moved up to AAA mid-season, and was merely league average for the rest of the season. In 2016, he started in AAA and spent almost the entire season there. He was called up late in the year and went ahead and hit only a .608 OPS in 95 PAs. Then in 2017 he was one of the best hitters in all of baseball. So I think the best estimate is for Rooker to be a legitimate contributor for the big league team starting in 2020. Also, it is important to remember that for every AA bat-only slugger that ends up becoming an above-average players in the big leagues, there are two or more that don't.
  19. markos
    While not exactly answering your question, it was pointed out the other day that the Cubs had 5 top-10 draft picks between 2011 and 2015. They are all currently between the ages of 23 and 26, and they are all in the big-league starting lineup most days. They have combined for over 10 WAR already this season.
  20. markos
    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/broadcasters-view-who-have-been-the-top-players-in-the-midwest-league/ This is a fun article if you want to read some gushing praise of Lewis and Kiriloff from opposing Midwest League broadcasters.
  21. markos
    I agree with this assessment. For me, Lewis is the only elite guy in the system right now. Other guys have a chance, but there is still a ton of risk for them.
  22. markos
    I'm guessing everyone was planning on a very short outing because he is slated to pitch in the Future's Game on Sunday.
  23. markos
    The reason is that Rooker hasn't been particularly great at AA. Sure, he has been mostly fine, but he is still striking out a lot and isn't going to provide any real defensive value. So everything is tied to his bat. And right now he is performing an order of magnitude worse than a guy like Kyle Schwarber did in his first taste of AA. So given his age, experience, and performance so far, I think Rooker's most likely outcome right now is a below-average but above-replacement-level big league player.
  24. markos
    I know the $45M number has been used quite a bit here and there, but baseball reference is projecting ~$75M for 2019 if one includes guaranteed, arbitration and league-minimum salaries. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/minnesota-twins-salaries-and-contracts.shtml Obviously some wiggle room with arbitration costs, but I think $45M is a slightly misleading baseline.
  25. markos
    I think they get a lot better if Buxton, Sano and Polanco are merely league-average players next year. League average isn't a huge bar to reach - they have all be better than that in the past. Doing some hand-wavy, back-of-the-envelope calculations, just reaching that level would improve this teams run differential by ~40 runs, give or take. And let's say that is 4 wins. Now the team is 44-44 with a +20 run differential. Obviously, they didn't manage that this year, and there are no guarantees. But they can get A LOT better with the players they have. And this doesn't even factor in the their 5-16 record in 1-run games.
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