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SwainZag

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Everything posted by SwainZag

  1. SwainZag
    I'd argue with you and say those losses were due to the Twins not scoring enough runs. I will add the Twins faced a lot of HOF caliber pitchers in that run. Pettite, Mussina, Clemens, Sabathia, Rivera all multiple times. Going back to 2002, here are the runs the Twins scored in playoff games in losing series: 2002: 2, 3, 1, 1, 5 2003: 3, 1, 1, 1 2004: 2, 6, 4, 5 (screw this series particularly) 2006: 2, 2, 3 2009: 2, 3, 2 2010: 4, 2, 1 I don't know how you can just look back and pin those losses on the pitching staff. 21 games, scored 5 runs or more 3 times. 13 times 2 or less runs.
  2. SwainZag
    Berrios ERA is outperforming his FIP by nearly a run and his BABIP sits at a below league average .281. In terms of total defense fielding percentage and errors, the Twins are just a shade lower than league average.
  3. SwainZag
    If I am the GM I am not giving up a player on the 25 man roster to get someone in return. If someone is demanding Buxton, Sano, Garver, etc, then I look at another avenue. If that limits the teams that want to trade with me, then so be it.
  4. SwainZag
    A lot more risk of being taken by a guy who has hit AA pitching fairly well compared to someone who had never been called up to that level yet.
  5. SwainZag
    The Indians are winning at a 75% clip over their last 45 games or so and if they keep up that pace they are going to win 108 games and be the #1 seed going into the playoffs. Yes, the Twins have treaded water over that same period, but give the Indians some credit, they are playing lights out baseball right now. That being said, there is a lot of baseball left this season.
  6. SwainZag
    Without Romo it looks like a win for this team. Diaz is blocked pretty heavily on the depth chart.
  7. SwainZag
    I think the difference is the giant package it would have taken to bring JT in here. It's Garver's numbers he has put up PLUS you still have the package of players.
  8. SwainZag
    You keep bringing up Verlander. We get it. He's doing great. Since joining Houston he found something, improved his velocity and became a better pitcher at ages 34-36 than he had been in years. He's the exception, not the rule. I'm sure you could find a post from me stating that having an above average hitting catcher like Realmuto is a luxury and someone you don't trade a bunch of assets for unless you are set over the rest of the diamond. I was happy they didn't shell out a big offer then and even more happy today after seeing Garver morph into what he is today.
  9. SwainZag
    Yeah there's a good chance he is in AAA (or traded), Castro is your backup and Lewis is playing in Miami's farm system and the Twins with what-we-know-now are in no better shape at the current moment.
  10. SwainZag
    Garver doesn't get the playing time if Realmuto is here.
  11. SwainZag
    Past results do not predict future events though. Just because they failed to make major moves and clean out the farm system in 2006 and lost in the 1st round with a completely front office, staff and players doesn't not mean a lick in 2019. I would rather the team not get blinded by actually being a good team to realize that if you build a good enough core it's not a one year shot. I really hope they don't blow all their ammunition overpaying and shorten the window.
  12. SwainZag
    Cashner isn't even in the same league as Will Smith though when it comes to additions. It seems likes a pure and simple dump of the contract by a horrible O's team. He's also been hit hard both times he pitched for the Sox, would he even have been much of an upgrade for the Twins?
  13. SwainZag
    I found this article from June 24th and the Marlins had no intentions of trading Smith, unless you meant Will Smith. His name was floated, but I think there is a good chance the Giants still thought they might be able to compete and held back and told teams to wait. I like the idea of just thinking it would have been easier in June, I just don't know how feasible it is to actually get it done, unless it's a vast blow me away overpay.
  14. SwainZag
    You don't even know if anyone was available in June to be overpaid for.
  15. SwainZag
    All Gray's numbers actually look better last year except the ERA and a slight down tick in HR's given up. He is striking out less, walking batters at a higher rate and even has a higher line drive rate this year. Last year seems to just be an aberration. He has always pitched similar at Coors than away as well. I think I would def. take a look at what he would cost if I were the Twins.
  16. SwainZag
    Stroman is and never has been the quality of pitcher that Archer was before the trade. That would be a drastic overpay IMO
  17. SwainZag
    I think it's pretty obvious that since none of the guys you mentioned have changed teams that's it not as easy as overpaying to make a trade like that in June, unless it's an insane overpay. With even that being said, even if most of those guys are upgrades, there is no saying they would have been perfect in the pen. No reliever on that list is worth 4!? wins in a calendar month.
  18. SwainZag
    Jesus, no one is saying the bullpen is great, some of us are just saying the lineup should take a portion of the blame. They left ALOT of missed opportunities this week. How many baserunning errors did they make this week? How many times did they have multiple guys in scoring positions with less than 2 outs and fail to score? It happened over and over again. 3 and 4 runs often times are not enough runs to win the game, even if you have a 1 run lead going into the 7th inning. If they were getting mowed down in order it wouldn't be as frustrating, but constantly having opportunities to add to leads and failing to convert things at least like a sac fly is maddening.
  19. SwainZag
    A couple things to note: 1. Even after the treading water for the past 5 weeks, the Twins still hold the 3rd best record in the American League and 2nd best run differential. 2. The Indians have basically been unbeatable. They are 22-7 in their last 29 games. They would have gained on anyone. Winning 75% of your games will do that.
  20. SwainZag
    AH it was a 7 year extension, I should have noticed that. They didn't go to ARB this year. So they bought out all 4 years of his arbitration and gave him a 3 year extension onto that with 2 being team options. The contract will work out for both of them. If he doesn't play well, he probably won't vest that option and be able to hit FA after 2023. If he is good, he will earn the 10M and 12M, and hit FA after 2024.
  21. SwainZag
    I wouldn't say it isn't valuable, but it's not like an end all stat, and you are right it is more of a "clutch" stat I suppose. If his HR would have came in the 5th and tied the game instead of the 8th when they were already up 2, he most certainly would have had a +WPA for the game.
  22. SwainZag
    Because his other 3 plate appearances went K, groundout to begin an inning and GIDP with zero outs. His HR came after the team was already up 2 runs in the 8th inning. WPA is very situational.
  23. SwainZag
    Boyd intrigues me. He has given up a lot of HR lately, but he has also missed a ton of bats, and walks so few. His slider is the real deal. You cannot be a mirage when you can strike guys out at the rate that he does. The only starters in the league who have a higher K/9 than he doers are Cole, Sale and Scherzer. Get this stat.....he has a higher K/9, lower BB/9 and lower HR/9 than Verlander does this season. He has had a little rougher run, but man.....there is a lot to like with him. Greene would worry me a lot more than Boyd does. His shiny 1.06 ERA is the mirage. The BABIP of .179 is unsustainable.
  24. SwainZag
    Jorge's deal breaks down as follows: 2020: $3.8M 2021: $4.3M 2022: $5.5M 2023: $7.5M 2024: $10.5M 2025: $12M That's certainly not a bad contract for someone with just over 1000 PA who hit had a slash line of .272/.329/.420 slash line and had some pretty questionable defense at SS thus far in his career. Like JW stated, he also had the 80 game suspension last year and another screw up and he's gone for a year. Yes, the Twins had leverage, but they also took on risk he would improve as a player. So far this season it looked like they took a good risk, but the extension doesn't kick in until next season. This is literally a non-issue.
  25. SwainZag
    The decision on Berrios should already be made but now it's just how much is it going to take to get done.
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