cmb0252

LHP, especially college, is always weak. After Rodon the next guy is Sean Newcomb from Hartford college. He is a 6'5" 240 lbs lefty who some experts compare to Jon Lester. His fastball hit 95 a few times last summer and has reportedly hit 97 this summer. Could be this years Sean Manaea. TCU's Brandon Finnegan is the other big name lefty. He has a fastball that sits in the 92-95 range that has reportedly hit 100 this summer in the Cape League. He also has a slurve that is above average and a curve that has flashed above average. Only major knock on Finnegan is he is 5'11" which will keep some teams away. After those three you have a mix of guys that can sneak into the back of the first round. Florida's A.J. Reed has three average pitches and good command but most people prefer him at 1B where he shows good raw power. Jacob Lindgren of Mississippi State and John Hochstatter of Stanford are control LHP pitchers with average stuff. If they develop out pitch they might sneak in. That's the main group of college lefties.

You and chopper nail it. They are all replaceable. Even Perkins.

What fans want in trades, no matter what fan base, is almost never realistic. Unless you are a Rays fan.

Anger and angst is a little harsh. It is just annoying that, quoting an Aaron Gleeman tweet, " so many trade deadline reports and rumors flying around right now, but it's amazing how few involve the Twins." We were perceived to be one of the few sellers going into the trade deadline and we haven't even been a real player, at least publicly.

I don't want respect. I want a respectable team. Staying ideal when your team is as bad as the Twins gets us no where.

From Jim Bowden on the odds of Morny getting traded (take with a grain of salt): Justin Morneau | 1B | Minnesota Twins | Odds: 65 percent The Twins have decided they are not moving Glen Perkins, but they do want to move Morneau. The only question is: Are the Orioles, Yankees, Rangers or Pirates willing to give up a midlevel prospect and take on Morneau’s salary?

Agreed. Don't know what you have till you give it a chance. Arcia is killing AAA. He needs at bats in the majors. Other teams around us are finding decent returns for their players why not us?

I agree. I hated the Wimmers pick a few years ago because when you take "safe" high floor guy so much of his value is tied up in making it to the bigs fast. If they don't, like Wimmers, then you wasted a chance at a more talented player. With a high pick you grab BPA regardless of need/level.

From mlbtraderumors: The Royals scouted the Twins in their recent series against the Mariners, according to Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press ( Twitter link). Berardino doesn't list specific names, but remember that Twins GM Terry Ryan didn't mind dealing within the division last summer when he sent Francisco Liriano to the White Sox.

RPers are normally in higher demand at the trade deadline due to desperation. Add in the lack of top end RPing this is our best chance to get top value. At the start of the trade deadline experts felt we could start a bidding war if we put Perkins on the block. Honestly, I think the biggest problem is the lack of our front office trying to start a bidding war.

Competitive balance picks have already been determined. The O's have the second overall comp A pick which would be a damn good haul for Morny. I would say that sounds like to high of a price for Morny but last year the Pirates traded the same pick + Gorkys Hernandez for Gaby Sanchez. Hopefully the O's are just as desperate. That pick would be most likely a top 35 pick and worth about ~1.5M.

Picks 1-5 have a 88% chance to make it to the bigs for at least a cup of coffee. Rest of the first round is about a ~70% chance. Supplemental 1st rounders and second rounders have about a 50% chance to make it to the bigs. The farther you go down the draft the less likely you are to make the bigs and/or make an impact. Eades is a damn good prospect and according to Christopher Crawford could be one of the first SPs to the bigs.

People were saying this last year with Buxton when doing their own personal top Twins lists. Players taken in the top 5 picks have a 88% chance to make it to the bigs and a 34% chance to have an impact. While Stewart could be in the 12% that dont, odds are against it. You just don't find many guys with his tools.

While I agree this isn't a perfect model, you do a great job at interpreting the data, for looking at future value but what is? People didn't like the Onley/Fangraphs model because it wasn't specific enough. You don't like this one because it is too specific. The answer is there is no perfect model. Just data that you agree or disagree with.

Jim Callis at BaseballAmerica was asked where he would rank the recent draftees. Here is what he had to say about Mr.Stewart: "I’d place Stewart at No. 30, between Frazier and Ventura. Yes, Ventura and Stephenson have proven more. But I also had one scout tell me Stewart’s stuff was just as good as Gray’s and Appel’s and that Stewart was a better athlete. I’ll bet on the upside." Keith Law also had Stewart ranked 30 on his list. Link to BA's article below: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/ask-ba-2013-draftees-midseason-top-50/

Haha what? Great article. Well worth the read.

Keith Law's take on the trade: "He's a lottery ticket (Vasquez) for Houston, a guy with everyday upside if the strength ever comes, but a low-probability prospect until then. They're also getting a second player as a PTBNL, reportedly another good flier for the Astros, which will make this a very good return for two months of Veras plus an option year, especially since a closer is a needless luxury for a team en route to 100 losses. This also removes one reliever with ninth-inning experience from the trade market, which probably leaves Kevin Gregg as the main Proven Closer who's definitely available in a trade -- a fact that should encourage the Phillies, Twins and perhaps the Rangers to explore the markets for their own closers in the next 48 hours." http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/post/_/id/1029/breaking-down-the-jose-veras-trade

Doug Mittler at ESPN notes the Twins and O's have had preliminary talks about Morny. He does caution that the O's are reluctant to add payroll and have limited trade chips. Doug Mittler also notes Pelfrey as a pitching sleeper target for some teams and suggests he could be a good fit for the O's.

Jared Cross at ESPN wrote an article (insider) about which RPers teams should target. He has Perkins as the #1 RPer to target and notes the Twins should trade him not only because his value might never be higher but "even elite closers flame out quickly." Here is his data: "To prove this, I gathered data on pitchers like Perkins: relievers ages 26 to 32 with a quick ERA (kwERA) below 2.30 with between 35 and 90 relief innings in the years 1974 through 2009. This pool of 38 pitcher-seasons had an average kwERA of 1.90 and an ERA of 2.13 in the qualifying year (Year 0, see table). Reliever regression [TABLE=width: 0] [TR=bgcolor: transparent] [TH=bgcolor: #D6D6D6, align: left]Year[/TH] [TH=bgcolor: #D6D6D6, align: left]Innings[/TH] [TH=bgcolor: #D6D6D6, align: left]ERA[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: last, bgcolor: transparent] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]0[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]68.9[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]2.13[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: last, bgcolor: transparent] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]1[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]62.6[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]2.76[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: last, bgcolor: transparent] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]2[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]53.5[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]2.83[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: last, bgcolor: transparent] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]3[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]46.5[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]3.06[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] As a group, their performance fell off precipitously in the next year (Year 1) as regression to the mean would dictate that it must -- simply put, those selected for extreme performances in one year will, on average, be less extreme the next year. While their ERA decline slowed after Year 1, three years later, these pitchers were averaging one-third fewer innings with six of the 38 pitchers throwing no innings at all."

Seth put this up on tweeter and I figured this is a good link to have here. It is an article about Kohl Stewart's, and Trey Balls, development paths. Check it out: http://www.news-press.com/article/20130728/SPORTS/307280040/Red-Sox-Twins-careful-with-top-picks?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Sports

90% of the value for trading Morny is freeing up at bats for the guys stuck in AAA. Arcia and Parm need big league at bats. I would be happy getting a RPing prospect who is cost controlled or a lottery ticket prospect at this point.

Buxton's power has been showing lately.

Here is John Sickles top 20 prospect list. Baltimore Orioles Top 20 2013 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review - Minor League Ball

Did damage against Phillies top pitching prospect Biddle. Also, Twins second round pick Eades has thrown two scoreless innings so far.

Patience is a virtue. This is a bad team and we need to focus on the future. I don't need moral victories. The only difference between 85 loses and 95 loses is where you draft. While winning a hand full of games is nice it doesn't help a team get better. We need to trade who we can and make room for the guys in AAA.