Oxtung
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Everything posted by Oxtung
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Do you have a source for that?
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Here are BA's top 10 prospects from 2002: 1. Josh Beckett, rhp, Marlins 2. Mark Prior, rhp, Cubs 3. Hank Blalock, 3b, Rangers 4. Sean Burroughs, 3b, Padres 5. Carlos Pena, 1b, Athletics 6. Juan Cruz, rhp, Cubs 7. Joe Mauer, c, Twins 8. Wilson Betemit, ss, Braves 9. Drew Henson, 3b, Yankees 10. Mark Teixeira, 3b, Rangers Four of those panned out like you're expecting Sano to. 2002 isn't a fluke either. It's just the way of prospects. Most don't turn out. Go back and look you'll see that highly thought of prospects flame out all the time. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html
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You're right our Liriano talk is OT for this thread. I apologize to OP. I've responded to your Liriano statements in a more appropriate thread. http://twinsdaily.com/showthread.php?2317-The-Twins-need-to-sign-Liriano-to-a-2-3-year-contract-ASAP&p=36939&viewfull=1#post36939
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The Twins need to sign Liriano to a 2-3 year contract ASAP
Oxtung replied to DaveW's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I was having a very OT discussion on the Sano thread and so am moving that discussion here where it is relevant. You mean that Morneau has been payed $30 million over the last 2 years to post a -1 WAR? Any time you sign a player to a long term contract you are taking a risk. The more money and more years the larger the risk. As much as you want to deny it signing a below average pitcher, which Liriano has been, to a long term contract for ~10% of your team salary is a big risk. I'm not even sure how to respond to this...you just said that Greinke, who has a Cy Young award, couldn't match Liriano's 2010 season? I would have to look into it but I would guess that atleast 5 players on that list have at least 1 year that is equal to Liriano's 2010. On top of that everyone of those players hasn't been Liriano circa 2009, 2011, 2012. If you don't think 3/30 can turn into an albatross you must love Blackburn. -
Low risk? You're talking about committing ~10% of your team salary. That is risky even for players with good track records. Look at Morneau. You are talking about giving that to a pitcher that has been below league average the last 5 years. That is the definition of high risk. Liriano vs. League since 2008 [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] [/TD][TD]ERA WHIP k/9 bb/9 IP/GS Liriano 4.61 1.409 8.6 4.0 5.8 League 4.26 1.35 6.7 3.0 5.9 [/TABLE]
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Not sure if you're responding to me or not but if you are you are misinterpreting my post. I didn't say his stock HAS dropped. I said it is more likely to drop than to rise. So if you're going to trade him the time is now. It's a question of risk management. Yes, he has high upside. But as with all young prospects there is a VERY real chance he never fulfills that potential.
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This post is completely backwards. There are actually potentially more good FA pitchers this year than normal. Liriano, even pitching like he is right now, isn't at the top of that list. Toss in the fact that over the last 5 years been one of the worst pitchers in baseball and he starts looking worse and worse. Hamels is close to a #1 pitcher and is looking to get paid like one. Let's toss out a list of pitchers better than Liriano historically and potential FA's this year: Cole Hamels Zach Greinke Edwin Jackson R.A. Dickey Gavin Floyd Dan Haren Colby Lewis Shaun Marcum Brandon McCarthy Jake Peavy Anibal Sanchez
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Not really. There is a very real chance his value decreases from here on out. Going into this year he was considered a top 30 prospect by many people. Not much room to increase value but plenty of value to be lost. Unless he can get those K's under control his stock will seemingly fall. So, IF (and I can't stress that enough) Sano is a potential trade chip time is not your friend. On top of that the Twins are utterly devoid of pitching in the upper majors and on the roster right now.
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I would trade Sano straight up for any of the highly regarded young pitchers that are under team control long term. To me Sano seems a risky prospect. His BABIP has been very high before this year. This year it is at an average level and his batting average and xBH rate have all dropped accordingly. Unless he can reign in those K rates offensively he is Mike Restovich or Adam Dunn.
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Bouncy balls and slinkies. They are going to give them away to the first 100 fans at every game. This is the new marketing strategy for the next few months. The product on the field is bad but the Slinky races are oh so fun!!
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The Twins need to sign Liriano to a 2-3 year contract ASAP
Oxtung replied to DaveW's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
First, I didn't include Liriano's 2010 because it had no bearing on my point which you still don't seem to haven't answered. Nobody is arguing whether Liriano has great stuff. Nobody is denying that if Liriano is on he is a good pitcher. Everybody knows Liriano's 2010 was a good year. Secondly, I am not sure that I agree Liriano's resurgence is only because his k/9 is up. That seems a very simplistic answer. I'll have to go back and do some number crunching. Third, and this is my real point of contention with the "this time Liriano is going to stay good and we should sign him now, crowd", what has changed? Let's say for the moment that Liriano's resurgence is tied to his k/9. What separates 2012 from 2009 and 2011? He regressed back to bad in each of those years. So what is different this year that suddenly his k/9 is going to stay at ~11k/9? -
If the Twins make a qualifying offer, which right now would be ~$12.5M, and Liriano signs elsewhere the Twins would get 1 compensation pick after the first round. The team that signs Liriano would lose their first round pick but the Twins would NOT receive it. It is just a lost pick. The exception is if the team acquiring Liriano has a top 10 draft pick which are protected from loss. I believe they lose their second round pick instead in that case. Again, the Twins will only get 1 pick out of the deal and it will come in the compensation round following the first round. This was explained well on mlbtraderumors.com...but now I can't find where. I'll see if I can dig up the link and check on the Top 10 pick exception. ***EDIT*** If a team signs a player who already has a qualifying offer, ie if Liriano is signed by let's say the Mariners, the Mariners would forfeit their top pick. If however the Mariners had a top 10 pick that year they would instead forfeit their next highest pick which could potentially be another 1st round pick or a compensation pick of their own. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/the-new-draft-pick-compensation-system.html
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I for one am glad the Twins are "asking for a ton". The Twins hold all the cards. Holding onto Span even potentially helps the Twins because it gives more time to evaluate whether Revere, Hicks or Benson are the answers for CF and the lead off spot. Even if he doesn't move in the next week or so he will still have a similar amount of value this winter or even a year from now. The only downside here that I can see is if he gets moved later rather than sooner the prospects will come later rather than sooner as well.
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Because you think it is unlikely to actually get that dominant reliever to the Bigs? Because you think other positions are so much harder to find and go so quickly that you're forced to use your high picks, and therefore implicitly always should be using your high picks, on a handful of positions? Because you think relievers are the least valuable of the position groups? Some combination of the above or none of the above? I know you said you think you can turn the starters into relievers and get your bullpen arms that way. Certainly it seems plausible. I'm just wondering if there is more to your opinion than that.
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The Twins need to sign Liriano to a 2-3 year contract ASAP
Oxtung replied to DaveW's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I did some work digging through stats and brought some actual data to this discussion. I am trying to have a real dialogue and had a very logical question; why is this year different. You come back at me with sarcasm. Either you don't understand why 2010 was left off, which is makes me sad because I thought I was being very clear in my point, or you think you are being witty and your sarcasm is an attempt to quell any future discussion on the subject. If the later is the case why did you even start the thread? If the former is the case go back and re-read my post. If you still don't understand why 2010 was left off then ask why. This makes me think you didn't understand the point of my previous post. Yes, you can see that by looking at the chart but do you really think because Liriano is striking out a few more batters every game he won't return back to his April/May self? -
I understand that and if you read my post again you see I said "...Nathan or Rivera quality relievers..." not that Nathan and Rivera were themselves college relievers. So you think that it is impossible that a college reliever could have the dominant reliever potential? I guess I'll just have to disagree with you on that but can understand from your perspective why you think picking a reliever early would be a waste of a pick.
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With whom do young international signings live?
Oxtung replied to Oxtung's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Thanks for the answers guys. I was looking at Kepler's stats and suddenly was struck with the thought of how difficult his first year must have been. I knew about the DSL and the academy there but for Max that wasn't an option (or for any other prospect in GCL). I know I wasn't ready to be living on my own at 16. I would have been surviving on pancakes and grilled cheese sandwiches. And while I had a firm grasp on how money worked I certainly wasn't ready to be in charge of my own bigger picture finances. Do you know if any actual life skills are taught to these guys? Or really any of the incoming prospects regardless of age? It seems that teaching your future players about nutrition, some finance basics and how to avoid STD's makes good long term business sense. -
With whom do international signings live the first few years they are playing in the minors? Some of these kids are 16 years old. Does the team pay for the prospects parents to immigrate to the U.S.? Does the prospect live with a coach for a season? Is someone hired to "chaperone" the kid? On a similar note how do the road trips work? When the team is on a road trip does the kid have a chaperone there? Are there restrictions on how these young kids can spend their free time? Who teaches the life skills the prospects will need to flourish as an adult? Inquiring minds want to know if anyone has insights
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The Twins need to sign Liriano to a 2-3 year contract ASAP
Oxtung replied to DaveW's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
For those of you who are on the "Resign Liriano NOW!!!" bus why is this year any different than previous seasons? Here is a chart showing the best stretches for the given year as well as his end of season ERA. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 400] Year GS ERA WHIP BB/9 K/9 Season ERA '09 8 3.85 1.33 3.9 7.2 5.80 '11 7 2.20 0.98 3.8 8.0 5.09 '12 10 2.86 1.05 4.0 10.9 4.82 [/TABLE] Each year he had an above average to great stretch. Each year, over the course of the whole year, he has been a below average to terrible pitcher. While Liriano has been very good over the last couple of months we have seen similar periods in each of his bad years. So what has changed for Liriano that this time his dominance is here to stay? -
What does that have to do with my point?
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Why would the Twins trade for Shields when there are quite a few FA's that are going to be on the market this winter that are as good or better than James Shields? In other words, why give up Span for something you can just sign this offseason? FYI he costs $9M in 2013 and $12M in 2014 with $1M and $1.5M buyouts respectively according to Baseball-Reference.
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I saw via mlb "Gamecast" that he left the game late. What happened?
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Really? If you find someone you think would turn into a Nathan or Rivera quality reliever you don't think that's worth a high draft pick? I'm not trying to say Guttierrez had that potential coming out but if I think there is someone that has serious potential to be a dominant bullpen guy I would not have a problem picking him up. To be clear I'm also not saying we should draft a ton of bullpen arms early, just that if there is a dominant arm that you think will anchor your pen for 5 years I have no problem drafting said arm early.
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You stated that you didn't understand the need for organized atheism. I took that to mean "if you don't believe in God why would you organize to not believe in said God?" Which I totally agree with...that makes no sense to me, but if that is what others need then so be it I don't care. I was merely showing that there are reasons other than religion to for Atheists to organize. And to answer your question directly no it doesn't matter to me what your personal beliefs are.
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There has been alot of discussion about why player X hasn't been promoted or why player Y doesn't go straight from AA to MLB. I am trying to determine how quickly top prospects actually move through the minors but can't decide on the best way to judge pitchers. Is it better to look at IP or GS/GP? There are positives to both approaches so I'd like to hear what ya'll think. FYI for hitters I'm using GP instead of PA.
