Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Oxtung

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,027

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Oxtung

  1. Oxtung
    Good thing you caught the important points in my post!
  2. Oxtung
    Ahh...another supporter of the "Terry Ryan should have factored 2013 final pitching statistics into his 2012 free agent offers" I see.
  3. Oxtung
    Solid #2 definitely. Since I only believe there are 10ish elite pitchers in MLB he doesn't fit the term. Perhaps we're just arguing semantics. I would definitely call him a #2 starter.
  4. Oxtung
    I'm not sure what "#8" means since you supplied no statistic to go with it. I'll toss a few out there though. Among starting pitchers: 2012 WAR - 22nd ERA - 50th xFIP - 22nd 2011 WAR - 27th ERA - 47th xFIP - 13th 2010 WAR - 19th ERA - 34th xFIP - 54th The only number approaching "elite" status there is his xFIP in 2011. Now combined with his IP and he is a good starter. Still not elite though.
  5. Oxtung
    I think their ultimate W/L record will be heavily influenced by what they do at the trade deadline. If they keep the team intact they could finish with 75ish wins. If they trade Morneau, Willingham and Perkins they will probably fade significantly.
  6. Oxtung
    You're missing my point drjim. I wasn't even trying to say they should have signed better pitchers in this case. I was merely saying your supposition wasn't supported. In order for the Twins to exploit a market inefficiency they had to receive some benefit. An example would be if they had gone out and spent big on a bat or two to really improve the offense because they saved so much money with their pitching strategy. If you're claiming exploitation what advantage have the Twins received?
  7. Oxtung
    Sanchez is a good player, certainly above average, but he doesn't fall into the elite category unless one wants to stretch the term to absurd proportions.
  8. Oxtung
    Not to drag this too far off topic but how does acquiring below average pitchers on the cheap help the ultimate goal of winning games? It would be one thing to sign the cheap pitchers and then in turn spend big on your lineup so you can outscore opponents. Instead the Twins have just signed cheap pitchers these last couple of years without using the savings to improve the team elsewhere. So they aren't really exploiting anything because by definition exploitation means you're receiving a benefit somehow....
  9. Oxtung
    How much does velocity typically increase between HS and the majors as prospects mature? I'm sure to a large extent it is dependent on the prospect but I'm just wondering if he is hitting 94 right now what is the expectation 5 years from now when he is 23?
  10. Oxtung
    I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. Give me a player that still has something left in the tank. Give me the more talented player any day.
  11. Oxtung
    Let's hope so. It would be a benefit in the short term and in the long term he could hopefully bring back some nice prospects!
  12. Oxtung
  13. Oxtung
    Morneau hasn't been an average 1st baseman let alone an excellent first baseman since 2010. If a platoon at 1st is going to provide better results I say platoon away!
  14. Oxtung
    Of course Buxton at 19(?) still hasn't grown into his body yet and will be putting on weight before he reaches the majors. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain his current speed once he adds 30 pounds.
  15. Oxtung
    I don't see any scenario in which Morneau is kept. If he goes on a hot streak and hits for some power then he should be moved because he will bring some prospects (even if those are 200ish types). If he continues to "kill it" like he has so far this season he isn't worth the investment. Talent is what this team needs to add and Morneau hasn't fallen into that category since his concussion. Save the $13M and go spend it on a FA with something resembling talent. Here are some stats. Morneau's OPS ranks 20th out of all 1st baseman this year and 108th out of all MLB. So unless people think the other ~150 players batting near or above Morneau's production level (keeping in mind positional value) deserve $13 million it's better off to part ways. Some potential names: Corey Hart Mike Napoli James Loney (having an awesome year so far) Kendrys Morales Mark Reynolds Or maybe you start the Mauer to 1st move earlier and sign a catcher. Some intriguing names out there this year potentially: Brian McCann John Buck AJ Pierzynski Jarrod Saltalmacchia Kurt Suzuki Some of those players have more talent than others but the ones with less talent also aren't going to be any where near the $13M being tossed around in this thread.
  16. Oxtung
    What's the point of this post? The only thing I can think of is that you're attempting to fling a backhanded insult at me. Do you feel better? It certainly doesn't make your position any more logically tenable.
  17. Oxtung
    OK...I'm not sure why we're continuing this discussion. You say X....I show you historically X doesn't apply. You say history doesn't matter and continue on to argument Y. It's clear you believe all that matters is your own personal eye test and gut feelings. That's certainly your right but then there is no reason to continue this back and forth.
  18. Oxtung
    I am dumbfounded by these last few posts. Do people actually think that Terry Ryan should know how Correia pitched in 2013 before he signed in 2012? Because that is the argument you're making. Not that he should make a judgement based on probabilities but that he should actually know the results. If you truly believe that then doesn't the Happ extension look just terrible!
  19. Oxtung
    I'm willing to bet that by the end of the season Correia is below average as determined by ERA+. Interested in a sig line wager? That said, how he produces in 2013 has nothing to do with whether he was a good signing in 2012; unless you think GM's should be clairvoyant and factor 2013 results into 2012 contract negotiations?
  20. Oxtung
    I can see how you could get confused after 10 pages of this (feels like 50) but while some people wanted an ace not everyone was on that bandwagon. I certainly wouldn't have minded it but I also would have been happy with any of those 15 above average pitchers with the hope that if the Twins aren't contending there is serious thought given to flipping that pitcher for prospects at the deadline. I want the Twins to go into every season fielding the best team that they could have. Every year there is a team that comes from no where to contend. I want the Twins to give themselves the best opportunity to do that this year and in future years. The problem that I have is that the Twins haven't done that this year. They signed potentially the 2 worst FA starters (based on history), blew some smoke out about "planning on contending in September", then calmly pocketed $15-30 million.
  21. Oxtung
    I agree that the Twins could go underslot this year, no problem. I was responding to Brock's post that the Twins, who theoretically won't be picking this high again in the near future, can't get a top 5 talent in the future but could still go the underslot route. I was attempting to show that really isn't true. Pick 15 was just a "we could have pick 15 next year if we stay around .500," and in order to save $1.5m dollars with the 15th pick, because of the plateauing of slot values, the Twins would have to sign a player that wasn't expected to go until around pick #59, which has a slot value ~$1.5m less than pick 15. In which case the Twins would have essentially given up a guaranteed first round pick to sign a guaranteed second round pick all with the hopes that when their second round pick does come around that the "hard to sign 1st round talent but fell to the second round" still is there. So my whole post was just attempting to refute Brock's claim that the Twins could still go underslot in future years even if they don't have a high draft pick.
  22. Oxtung
    drjim you've said this many times and it just doesn't hold water for the most part. Several people have stated a preference for Greinke or Sanchez. I myself have stated several times that there were 15 average or better pitchers available. I typed up a list earlier this thread with 6-ish pitchers that posted the most innings over the last 3 seasons. The players are really there whether we call them by name or not. The reason I have not referred to any specific pitcher is because FA isn't a buffet. You can't just say, "I'd have signed Sanchez and Saunders this offseason," because anyone player could very well outright refuse to sign with the Twins or have a medical injury we don't know about. However, I find it incredibly unlikely that all 15 above average pitchers would/did. So while we are speaking in generalities, pitchers fitting the general description did exist this past off season. If the Twins prospects develop as you hope, capable of making a WS run, then there are going to be some very good players needing to get paid big money down the road. I haven't done the math but I highly suspect that if you wait 3 years to sign your ace pitcher you will not be able to resign all of your in house talent. So the question becomes, is it better to sign that Ace pitcher now or a second tier FA pitcher 3 years from now?
  23. Oxtung
    Which of course doesn't mean it's not true. Fans have huge biases to overcome early in the season in every sport. Those preconceived notions from the offseason are hard to ignore.
  24. Oxtung
    Even with 42nd pick talent instead of 59th pick talent (which doesn't really make sense because if the 10th overall talent thinks he would have gone higher and you end up splitting the difference then the 42/59th level talent thinks he should have gone higher and you'll split that difference too, but this is a minor quible) it still doesn't make any sense. You'd be giving up on a guaranteed middle of the first round talent + guaranteed middle of the second round talent for the guaranteed middle of the second round talent and a chance at a middle of a first round pick. Or in a more visual form: 15th pick: Guaranteed mid-2nd Rounder 59th pick: chance at mid-first rounder if he falls to you vs. 15th pick: Guaranteed mid-1st Rounder 59th pick: Guaranteed mid-2nd Rounder The reason it makes sense with high draft picks is because you get this scenario: #4 Pick: Guaranteed top 10 pick #43 Pick: Chance at mid-1st rounder if he falls vs. #4 Pick: Guaranteed Top 10 talent #43 Pick: Guaranteed 2nd round talent
  25. Oxtung
    Unless Gibson absolutely implodes, which there has been absolutely no sign of at any point in his career, he'll be in the Twins rotation in 2014. Whether he pitches 50 innings or 100 innings this year for the Twins won't affect his plans for 2014 or ultimately his career. He is going to get pretty much all of 2014 to show what he can do.
×
×
  • Create New...